Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.
Featured Publications
Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and U.S.-Russia Relations after the Cold War
Rose Gottemoeller uses lessons learned from U.S.-Russia relations during the George H. W. Bush and Clinton administrations to offer insights into how Russia today may be convinced to end its war against Ukraine and resume cooperation for the sake of global security.
Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder
A clear-eyed look from Michael McFaul at how the rise of autocratic China and Russia are compelling some to think that we have entered a new Cold War—and why we must reject that thinking in order to prevail.
The National College Entrance Examination shapes the future of millions of students in China each year, but Hongbin Li and Ruixue Jia illuminate how this test of all tests is also shaping education, labor markets, political legitimacy, and social values beyond the PRC.
Flourishing is an evolving wellbeing construct and outcome of interest across the social and biological sciences. Despite some conceptual advancements, there remains limited consensus on how to measure flourishing, as well as how to distinguish it from closely related wellbeing constructs, such as thriving and life satisfaction. This paper aims to provide an overview and comparison of the diverse scales that have been developed to measure flourishing among adolescent and adult populations to provide recommendations for future studies seeking to use flourishing as an outcome in social and biological research. We find that most common scales used to measure flourishing are multi-dimensional and assess features over monthly or yearly intervals, and many have been translated and validated across multiple geographical contexts, including higher- and lower-income countries. Complementing self-report measures with other social, economic, regional, and biological indicators of flourishing may provide a holistic and widely applicable measure of wellbeing that could guide strategies to sustain flourishing societies.
Despite the proliferation of education technologies (EdTech) in education, past reviews that examine their effectiveness in the context of low- and middle-income countries are few and rarely seek to include studies published in languages other than English. This systematic review investigates the effectiveness of educational technology on primary and secondary student learning outcomes in China via a systematic search of both English- and Chinese-language databases. Eighteen (18) unique studies in 21 manuscripts on the effectiveness of EdTech innovations in China met the eligibility criteria. The majority of these evaluate computer aided self-led learning software packages designed to improve student learning (computer assisted learning, CAL), while the rest evaluate the use of education technology to improve classroom instruction (ICI) and remote instruction (RI). The pooled effect size of all included studies indicates a small, positive effect on student learning (0.13 SD, 95% CI [0.10, 0.17]). CAL used a supplement to existing educational inputs – which made up the large majority of positive effect sizes – and RI programs consistently showed positive and significant effects on learning. Our findings indicate no significant differences or impacts on the overall effect based on moderating variables such as the type of implementation approach, contextual setting, or school subject area. Taken together, while there is evidence of the positive impacts of two kinds of EdTech (supplemental computer assisted learning and remote instruction) in China, more evidence is needed to determine the effectiveness of other approaches.
Despite rapid economic growth in China since 1978, rural-urban inequality has widened. High levels of socioeconomic inequality can have profound implications for child development and lifelong educational equity. Using a dataset containing early childhood development (ECD) outcomes of 0- to 3-year-olds (N = 9,053) from study sites in Eastern, Central, and Western China, the study finds that the risks of cognitive, language, and motor delay are, respectively, 43.2, 18.3, and 20.7 percentage points higher in rural study sites than in urban Shanghai (ps < .01). Impact evaluation of cluster-randomized experiments shows that parental training (focusing on child psychosocial stimulation and caregiver-child interaction) can improve parenting beliefs and practices (or investments) and ECD outcomes of disadvantaged rural children (p < .01). Such programs can play an important role in advancing progress toward more social equality and economic equity, the stated goals of China’s “Common Prosperity” policy.
Keywords: early childhood development, Common Prosperity, rural-urban inequality, intergenerational transmission of disadvantage, parental training, parenting beliefs and practices
With the New START Treaty supended by the Russian Federation the future of legal nuclear arms control looks even bleaker than before. This brief lays out the foundations of the treaty and the main obstacles that it faces even before it expires in 2026.
Regional monopoly limits market reforms from improving cross-firm resource allocative efficiency, but little empirical evidence is available from developing countries. This paper provides rich evidence that regional monopoly may hinder the expansion of more productive firms, using the Chinese iron and steel sector as a case. Drawing on a comprehensive panel dataset comprising 11,136 iron and steel firms in China from 1998 to 2009, we demonstrate that market reforms in China's steel industry enhance competition at the national level, but do not effectively improve resource reallocation within provinces. Despite a decline in the market share of the top 10 largest steel enterprises from 80% to 50% between 1998 and 2009, resource reallocation only contributes to 14% of industry-level total factor productivity (TFP) growth, amounting to one-sixth of the contribution from within-firm productivity growth. Furthermore, the effects of resource reallocation within provinces are significantly lower compared to those observed between provinces, suggesting that market fragmentation or frictions hinder the expansion of more productive firms within the same province. These findings underscore the importance of eliminating regional monopoly for developing countries undergoing market reforms to enhance resource allocative efficiency.
