Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.
Featured Publications
Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and U.S.-Russia Relations after the Cold War
Rose Gottemoeller uses lessons learned from U.S.-Russia relations during the George H. W. Bush and Clinton administrations to offer insights into how Russia today may be convinced to end its war against Ukraine and resume cooperation for the sake of global security.
Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder
A clear-eyed look from Michael McFaul at how the rise of autocratic China and Russia are compelling some to think that we have entered a new Cold War—and why we must reject that thinking in order to prevail.
The National College Entrance Examination shapes the future of millions of students in China each year, but Hongbin Li and Ruixue Jia illuminate how this test of all tests is also shaping education, labor markets, political legitimacy, and social values beyond the PRC.
Economic Development and Cultural Change,
March 15, 2024
We study how an elite college education affects social mobility in China. China provides an interesting context because its college admissions rely mainly on the scores of a centralized exam, a system that has been the subject of intense debate. Combining the data from a large-scale college graduate survey and a nationally representative household survey, we document three main findings.First, attending an elite college can change one’s fate to some extent. It raises the child’s rank in the income distribution by almost 20 percentiles. Nevertheless, it does not change the intergenerational relationship in income ranks or guarantee one’s entry into an elite occupation or industry. Second, while elite college access rises with parental income, the disparity is less pronounced in China than in the United States. In China, top-quintile children are 2.3 times more likely to attend an elite college compared to bottom-quintile children, versus an 11.2-fold difference in the U.S. Third, the score-based cutoff rule in elite college admission is income neutral. Overall, these findings reveal both the efficacy and limitations of China’s elite colleges in shaping social mobility.
To better understand the impacts of parenting interventions (e.g., parental training of psychosocial stimulating activities) on child developmental outcomes and design effective policies to benefit young children, it is essential to identify the mechanisms through which the interventions work. To this end, this paper presents the results of two randomized controlled trials that offered home visitation, parenting trainings to 435 households (with 527 households as the control group) in 174 villages across three provinces in China. The findings from the randomized controlled trials showed that the interventions significantly improved child cognitive development and had a positive effect on the primary caregivers’ parenting practices and their parenting beliefs. The analysis suggests three possible mechanisms through which the parenting interventions affected child cognitive development: changing the parenting beliefs of the primary caregivers, shifting the parenting practices of the primary caregivers, and improving the primary caregivers’ parenting beliefs, thus fostering better parenting practices.
As government agencies move to adopt AI across a range of programs, choices made in system design can ensure individuals’ ability to effectively challenge decisions made about them.
Given the size of the problem and the scientific evidence that timely intervention can improve long-term outcomes, an important question is how to best scale-up early childhood development (ECD) interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). A key component of the solution is financing. However, there has been little research on the question of whether cost-sharing models can equitably and sustainably finance ECD programs at scale in LMICs. We built parenting centers in two rural communities of Western China to teach caregivers how to stimulate child development through fun and interactive activities. We used the Becker-Degroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism to elicit the household willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a one-month pass to the parenting centers. The results of the BDM suggest that a cost-sharing model would not be suitable for China's rural population at least in the short-run. Demand was found to be highly elastic. In addition, we found limited evidence of selection effects. We also found no evidence of sunk-cost effects.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
February 20, 2024
From Mesopotamian cities to industrialized nations, gossip has been at the center of bonding human groups. Yet the evolution of gossip remains a puzzle. The current article argues that gossip evolves because its dissemination of individuals’ reputations induces individuals to cooperate with those who gossip. As a result, gossipers proliferate as well as sustain the reputation system and cooperation.
Patient Education and Counseling,
February 15, 2024
Objectives Patient satisfaction is an essential indicator of the doctor-patient relationship. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between primary care quality and patient satisfaction for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in rural western China.
Methods The study utilized the standardized patients (SPs) approach to present typical symptoms of unstable angina and diabetes to rural healthcare providers. After the consultations, the SPs completed a satisfaction survey. Ordinary least squares and quantile regression were used to examine the association between quality of primary care and patient satisfaction.
Results We examined 178 anonymous SPs visits. The results showed that higher process quality for angina SPs was correlated with stronger satisfaction for provider ability at a low quantile of ability satisfaction. For diabetes SPs, higher process quality increased overall satisfaction at a low quantile of overall satisfaction, whereas a correct diagnosis significantly contributed to communication satisfaction at a high quantile of communication satisfaction.
Conclusions The study found positive associations between process and diagnosis quality and SPs satisfaction. Notably, the influence of process quality was most significant among patients with lower satisfaction levels.
Improved survival of preterm low birthweight (LBW) infants due to advances in neonatal care has brought issues such as postnatal development trajectories to the foreground. This study pools evidence from three cluster-randomized experiments evaluating community-based psychosocial stimulation programs conducted from 2014 to 2017 that included 3571 rural Chinese children aged 6–24 months (51.1% male, 96.2% Han Chinese). The risk of severe cognitive delay was found to be 26.5 percentage points higher for preterm LBW children than for their peers at age 2.5, with a prevalence rate of 48.3%. Results show that psychosocial stimulation interventions can improve child cognitive development at scale, with beneficial impacts on child cognition disproportionately larger for preterm LBW children, helping them to catch up developmentally.
Uncritically equating acute nuclear attack effects and AI threats risks reproducing the same kind of all-or-nothing thinking that drove some of the most dangerous dynamics of the nuclear arms race.
Background Poor development of young children is a common issue in developing countries and it is well established that iron deficiency anemia is one of the risk factors. Research has shown that iron deficiency is a common micronutrient deficiency among children in rural China and can result in anemia. A previous paper using data from the same trial as those used in the current study, but conducted when sample children were younger, found that after 6 months of providing caregivers of children 6–11 months of age free access to iron-rich micronutrient powder (MNP) increased the hemoglobin concentrations (Hb) of their children. However, no effects were found 12 and 18 months after the intervention. The current study followed up the children four years after the start of the original intervention (when the children were 4–5 years old) and aims to assess the medium-term impacts of the MNP program on the nutritional status of the sample pre-school-aged children, including their levels of Hb, the prevalence of anemia, and the dietary diversity of the diets of the children.
Methods At baseline, this study sampled 1,802 children aged 6–11 months in rural Western China. The intervention lasted 18 months. In this medium-term follow-up study that successfully followed 81% (n = 1,464) of children (aged 49–65 months) from the original study population 4 years after the start of the intervention, we used both intention-to-treat (ITT) effect and average treatment on the treated effect (ATT) analyses to assess the medium-term impacts of the MNP distribution program on the nutritional status of sample children.
Results The ITT analysis shows that the MNP intervention decreased the prevalence of anemia of young children in the medium run by 8% (4 percentage points, p < 0.1). The ATT analysis shows that consuming 100 (out of 540) MNP sachets during the initial intervention led to a decrease in anemia of 4% (2 percentage points, p < 0.1). Among children with moderate anemia at baseline (Hb < 100 g/L), the intervention reduced the probability of anemia by 45% (9 percentage points, p < 0.1), and, for those families that complied by consuming 100 (out of 540) sachets, a 25% (5 percentage points, p < 0.05) reduction in the anemia rate was found. The MNP intervention also led to a persistent increase in dietary diversity among children that were moderately anemic at baseline. The results from the quantile treatment effect analysis demonstrated that children with lower Hb levels at baseline benefited relatively more from the MNP intervention.
Conclusions The findings of the current study reveal that the MNP intervention has medium-term effects on the nutritional status of children in rural China. The impacts of the MNP program were relatively higher for children that initially had more severe anemia levels. Hence, the implications of this study are that programs that aim to increase caregiver knowledge of nutrition and improve their feeding practices should be encouraged across rural China. Families, policymakers, and China’s society overall need to continue to pay more attention to problems of childhood anemia in rural areas. This is particularly crucial for families with moderately anemic children at an early age as it can significantly contribute to improving the anemia status of children across rural areas of China.
