Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.
Featured Publications
Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and U.S.-Russia Relations after the Cold War
Rose Gottemoeller uses lessons learned from U.S.-Russia relations during the George H. W. Bush and Clinton administrations to offer insights into how Russia today may be convinced to end its war against Ukraine and resume cooperation for the sake of global security.
Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder
A clear-eyed look from Michael McFaul at how the rise of autocratic China and Russia are compelling some to think that we have entered a new Cold War—and why we must reject that thinking in order to prevail.
The National College Entrance Examination shapes the future of millions of students in China each year, but Hongbin Li and Ruixue Jia illuminate how this test of all tests is also shaping education, labor markets, political legitimacy, and social values beyond the PRC.
National Bureau of Economic Research,
June 13, 2026
We study the optimal design of trade and industrial policy when governments pursue environmental objectives alongside traditional national welfare. Motivated by the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and growing concerns about competitiveness, resilience, and the environment, we develop a framework in which policymakers choose tariffs and domestic production subsidies to maximize national welfare, defined as the sum of consumer surplus, domestic profits, environmental benefits, and tariff revenue net of subsidies. We combine a theoretical model of differentiated-product oligopoly with a structural demand model estimated using vehicle-level data from 13 countries during 2004-2023 that together account for the vast majority of global EV sales. Our central finding is that the optimal policy combines a moderate tariff on imported EVs with a subsidy to domestic EV production financed through tariff revenue. This policy substantially outperforms both outright protectionism and laissez-faire. Relative to current policies, it preserves consumer access to affordable EVs, accelerates fleet electrification, supports domestic producers, and remains budget-neutral. For the United States, the optimal policy more than doubles EV market share, generates over $45 billion in annual welfare gains, and avoids approximately 95 million tons of lifetime CO2 emissions. A key mechanism underlying these results is the pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices, which depends critically on demand curvature, product substitution, and market structure. More broadly, our results suggest that effective industrial policy requires careful attention to market structure and country-specific conditions, balancing consumer, producer, fiscal, and environmental objectives rather than adhering to ideological prescriptions.
This study examines how center-based parenting interventions aimed at improving early child development in rural China affect the mental health of caregivers. Data from an analytic sample of 615 caregiver–child dyads (children aged 6 to 24 months, 48.5% girls; data collection: 2015–2017) in a 2-year cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in 100 villages showed that the intervention had no significant effect on caregiver depressive (β = − .047, SE = .079), anxiety (β = .040, SE = .076), or stress (β = .032, SE = .081) symptoms. Subgroup analyses found no significant difference in effects on mental health by prespecified characteristics after adjustment for multiple comparisons, except that the caregivers of children without social–emotional delay at baseline exhibited lower depression scores after the intervention (β = − .205, SE = .097, p = .043). The findings suggest that the center-based parenting intervention focused solely on strengthening parenting skills may be insufficient to improve caregiver mental health over 2 years.
The Impact of Extending the U.S. Office of Foreign Asset Control General License 134 Series on Russian Oil Revenues, War Financing, and Humanitarian Implications for Ukraine.
Objectives Considering the importance of caregiver mental health for early childhood development, this study investigates risk and protective factors of mental health of mothers and grandmothers caring for infants and toddlers in rural China.
Methods Using survey data from 777 primary caregivers of children aged 5 to 25 months, we apply regression analysis and structural equation modeling to examine associations between social support, mental health literacy, parenting-related hardships, and mental health among mothers and grandmothers.
Results The study finds that 33% of the caregivers report symptoms of mental health problems, with grandmothers experiencing more severe symptoms. Poor caregiver mental health is associated with lower child language (p < 0.05) and social-emotional development (p < 0.001). Social support and mental health literacy are associated with better mental health, but this association was not statistically significant among either the mothers or the grandmothers alone.
Conclusions Enhancing caregiver mental health is crucial for children’s development. Social support and mental health literacy are predictors of mental health. Future research should examine the effect of improving social support and mental health literacy on the mental health of caregivers for young children.
An empirically powerful account of why interpersonal violence across the globe exacts a far greater cumulative cost on society than war and terrorism combined
This article examines how the American Medical Association (AMA) helped shape the development of the U.S. health insurance system in the critical period after World War II.
