Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.
Featured Publications
Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder
A clear-eyed look from Michael McFaul at how the rise of autocratic China and Russia are compelling some to think that we have entered a new Cold War—and why we must reject that thinking in order to prevail.
Gi-Wook Shin explores how Japan, Australia, China, and India achieved economic power and sustained momentum by responding to risks and challenges such as demographic crises, brain drain, and geopolitical tensions.
A growing body of literature explores the effect of higher education on the urban–rural divide in China. Despite an increasing number of rural students gaining access to college, little is known about their performance in college or their job prospects after graduation. Using nationally representative data from over 40,000 urban and rural college students, we examine rural students’ college performance and estimate the impact of rural status on students’ first job wages in comparison to their urban peers. Our results indicate that once accepted into college, rural students perform equally as well, if not better, than their urban counterparts. Additionally, we discovered that rural students earn a 6.2 per cent wage premium compared to their urban counterparts in their first job after graduation. Our findings suggest the importance of expanding access to higher education for rural students, as it appears to serve as an equalizer between urban and rural students despite their significantly different backgrounds.
Economic Development and Cultural Change,
March 15, 2024
We study how an elite college education affects social mobility in China. China provides an interesting context because its college admissions rely mainly on the scores of a centralized exam, a system that has been the subject of intense debate. Combining the data from a large-scale college graduate survey and a nationally representative household survey, we document three main findings.First, attending an elite college can change one’s fate to some extent. It raises the child’s rank in the income distribution by almost 20 percentiles. Nevertheless, it does not change the intergenerational relationship in income ranks or guarantee one’s entry into an elite occupation or industry. Second, while elite college access rises with parental income, the disparity is less pronounced in China than in the United States. In China, top-quintile children are 2.3 times more likely to attend an elite college compared to bottom-quintile children, versus an 11.2-fold difference in the U.S. Third, the score-based cutoff rule in elite college admission is income neutral. Overall, these findings reveal both the efficacy and limitations of China’s elite colleges in shaping social mobility.
To better understand the impacts of parenting interventions (e.g., parental training of psychosocial stimulating activities) on child developmental outcomes and design effective policies to benefit young children, it is essential to identify the mechanisms through which the interventions work. To this end, this paper presents the results of two randomized controlled trials that offered home visitation, parenting trainings to 435 households (with 527 households as the control group) in 174 villages across three provinces in China. The findings from the randomized controlled trials showed that the interventions significantly improved child cognitive development and had a positive effect on the primary caregivers’ parenting practices and their parenting beliefs. The analysis suggests three possible mechanisms through which the parenting interventions affected child cognitive development: changing the parenting beliefs of the primary caregivers, shifting the parenting practices of the primary caregivers, and improving the primary caregivers’ parenting beliefs, thus fostering better parenting practices.
As government agencies move to adopt AI across a range of programs, choices made in system design can ensure individuals’ ability to effectively challenge decisions made about them.
Given the size of the problem and the scientific evidence that timely intervention can improve long-term outcomes, an important question is how to best scale-up early childhood development (ECD) interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). A key component of the solution is financing. However, there has been little research on the question of whether cost-sharing models can equitably and sustainably finance ECD programs at scale in LMICs. We built parenting centers in two rural communities of Western China to teach caregivers how to stimulate child development through fun and interactive activities. We used the Becker-Degroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism to elicit the household willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a one-month pass to the parenting centers. The results of the BDM suggest that a cost-sharing model would not be suitable for China's rural population at least in the short-run. Demand was found to be highly elastic. In addition, we found limited evidence of selection effects. We also found no evidence of sunk-cost effects.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
February 20, 2024
From Mesopotamian cities to industrialized nations, gossip has been at the center of bonding human groups. Yet the evolution of gossip remains a puzzle. The current article argues that gossip evolves because its dissemination of individuals’ reputations induces individuals to cooperate with those who gossip. As a result, gossipers proliferate as well as sustain the reputation system and cooperation.
