Elections
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CDDRL Honors Student, 2025-26
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Major: Public Policy and Data Science & Social Systems
Minor: Jewish Studies
Hometown: Mercer Island, Washington 
Thesis Advisor: Hakeem Jefferson

Tentative Thesis Title: The Impact of Electoral Systems on Political Representation

Future aspirations post-Stanford: After Stanford, I'm planning on pursuing a Ph.D. in the social sciences.

A fun fact about yourself: I play the French Horn in the Stanford Wind Symphony!

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Encina Hall, E111
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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CDDRL Predoctoral Fellow, 2025-26
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Hanna Folsz is a PhD candidate in Political Science at Stanford University. Her research focuses on opposition parties in authoritarian dominant-party regimes, with a particular focus on the challenges and opportunities they face in countering autocratization. More broadly, her work examines the causes and consequences of democratic backsliding, populism, media capture, and political favoritism — primarily in East-Central Europe and, secondarily, in Latin America. She uses a multi-method approach, including modern causal inference and text analysis techniques.

Her research has been supported by the National Science Foundation and the American Political Science Association, among others. She is the co-founder and co-organizer of EEPGW, a monthly online graduate student workshop on East European politics, and a co-founder and regular contributor to The Hungarian Observer, the most widely read online newsletter on Hungarian politics and culture. At Stanford, she is an active member of  CDDRL's Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab (PovGov).

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Encina Hall, E106
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Einstein-Moos Postdoctoral Fellow, 2025-26
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Oren Samet is the Einstein Moos Postdoctoral Fellow at Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (2025-26) and will be an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Rice University beginning in 2026.

His research centers on the international dimensions of authoritarian politics and democratization, with a particular emphasis on opposition politics and a regional focus on Southeast Asia. His book project examines the success and strategies of opposition parties, focusing on the international activities of these actors in authoritarian contexts. Other work focuses on opposition competition in authoritarian elections, processes of autocratization, and contemporary challenges of international democracy promotion and governance aid. His academic work has been published in the American Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, and Political Communication, and his other writing has been published in outlets including Foreign Policy, Slate, and World Politics Review.

Before entering academia, Oren was based in Bangkok, Thailand, where he served as the Research and Advocacy Director of ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights, working with politicians and civil society leaders across Southeast Asia. He previously worked as a Junior Fellow in the Democracy and Rule of Law Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley, and a B.A. from Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs.

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In 2023, Guatemala's political landscape experienced a significant transformation with the election of President Bernardo Arevalo, a reformist determined to combat deep-seated corruption affecting the nation. Arevalo's presidency surfaced amid considerable public discontent with entrenched corruption, culminating in a challenge regarding the actions to be taken against Attorney General María Consuelo Porras, who was accused of obstructing justice. As he navigated the complexities of a divided political environment, Arevalo faced pressures from both the conservative establishment and civil society groups advocating for anti-corruption reforms. Guatemala's historical struggles with corruption, influenced by a legacy of civil war and ineffective political institutions, further complicated his efforts. The disbandment of the International Commission Against Impunity in 2019 and the pervasive influence of conservative elites posed significant barriers to his mandate. The text explores the intricate dynamics influencing Arevalo's decision-making process, highlighting the implications of his choices on Guatemala's future governance and the ongoing pursuit of democratic integrity in a challenging political context. Options available to Arevalo include immediate action against Porras, delayed engagement, or inaction, each presenting distinct risks and potential impacts on his reform agenda and the country’s democratic institutions.

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Over the weekend of June 5-9, a representative sample of registered Pennsylvania voters gathered in Philadelphia to deliberate in depth about issues facing the state and the nation. When first contacted, they answered an extensive questionnaire about policy proposals from across the political spectrum that could possibly address key issues facing the state and the nation. At the end of the weekend they completed the same questionnaire. 175 voters from across the state were successfully recruited to participate in the discussions. Another 502 were assigned to a control group that completed the same questionnaires over the same period, but did not deliberate. The process is called Deliberative Polling® and followed the format of 160 previous projects around the world. Like the other America in One Room events, this experiment was sponsored and convened by Helena, a global problem solving organization working with the Deliberative Democracy Lab at Stanford University, and Public Opinion Strategies, a leading public opinion research firm that conducted the recruitment and selection of the samples and administered the survey questionnaires.

What would the voters of Pennsylvania really think about the issues if they discussed them in depth in a civil and evidence-based environment for a long weekend? Summary results are sketched below.

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America in One Room: Pennsylvania, a Deliberative Poll coordinated by global problem-solving organization Helena and the Deliberative Democracy Lab at Stanford University, today announced results revealing what Pennsylvania voters really think about pressing local and national issues ranging from the state of democracy and elections, to immigration, housing, and foreign affairs.

The landmark Deliberative Polling® experiment gathered a representative sample of 175 registered Pennsylvania voters for a weekend of civic engagement and civil discourse in Philadelphia. The participants answered a questionnaire about 65 policy proposals across domestic and foreign issue areas before and after engaging in deep deliberation on the topics. The deliberations included small group discussions, question-and-answer sessions with bipartisan and nonpartisan issue experts, and plenary sessions featuring leading state and federal policymakers and experts from both sides of the aisle.

The Deliberative Polling® process at America in One Room goes beyond snapshot opinions to reveal an authentic will of the people,  giving policymakers access to data about what voters actually think when given balanced information and the opportunity for meaningful discussion. Policymakers who engage with the data can craft policies that truly reflect what constituents want based on an understanding of the tradeoffs and stakes involved. At America in One Room: Pennsylvania, Speaker of the House Joanna McClinton committed to leveraging data related to voting proposals as she works to advance election reform policy in the commonwealth.

“America in One Room is designed to help policymakers understand the true ‘will of the people,’ said Henry Elkus, founder and CEO of Helena, a global problem-solving organization and co-creator of America in One Room. “What happened over four days in Pennsylvania was a deeply practical demonstration of democracy in action, both for Pennsylvania and national legislators to implement policy. Helena will continue working toward a future where deliberative democracy can play a bigger and bigger role in shaping decision-making in the US and abroad.”
 


What happened over four days in Pennsylvania was a deeply practical demonstration of democracy in action, both for Pennsylvania and national legislators to implement policy.
Henry Elkus
Founder and CEO, Helena


The results show dramatic opinion shifts and notable consensus-building across party lines. Most notably, dissatisfaction with American democracy dropped 21 points overall—from 75% to 54%—with Republicans, Democrats, and independents all showing significant improvement in democratic confidence at the end of the weekend.

"When Pennsylvanians were given the space for informed, civil conversation, they consistently depolarized on issues that dominate cable news narratives as hopeless partisan battles," said James Fishkin, Director of Stanford's Deliberative Democracy Lab. "This experiment proves that America's political divisions and opinions are not as intractable as they might seem. Voters, when presented with balanced information and the opportunity to listen to one another, emerged with considered judgments about what needed to be done as well as greater respect for those they disagree with. The results offer a look at what really matters to voters when they think in depth about the issues. In my view, it also offers an inspiring picture of how democracy could actually work better.”
 


This experiment proves that America's political divisions and opinions are not as intractable as they might seem. Voters emerged with considered judgments about what needed to be done as well as greater respect for those they disagree with.
James Fishkin
Director, Deliberative Democracy Lab


Key findings:
 

  • Immigration: Support for increasing visas for low-skilled workers doubled from 25% to 50%, with Democrats moving from 41% to 69% support and Republicans increasing from 9% to 30%. State-level DACA protections gained significant Republican backing, rising from 18% to 38%.
  • Voting Rights: Support for broad voter enfranchisement jumped to 96% (up from 83%), with Republicans increasing their support by 22 points. Democrats increased their support for voter ID requirements, increasing from 48% to 57%.
  • Election Integrity: An overwhelming majority of participants supported increases in election integrity, with 77% supporting random ballot audits, and 87% supporting criminal penalties for voter intimidation.
  • Healthcare: Rural healthcare initiatives achieved near-unanimous support, with 94% backing loan forgiveness for healthcare workers in underserved areas and 88% supporting tax credits for rural facilities.
  • Foreign policy: Support for providing military support to Taiwan in case of Chinese invasion doubled from 35% to 69%, with massive bipartisan increases among both Democrats (40-point jump) and Republicans (30-point jump).
  • Education: While trade school subsidies gained overwhelming support (81%), free college tuition support dropped from 59% to 47% as participants weighed budget realities.
  • Transformed relationships & Understanding: Perhaps most significantly, 91% of participants reported respecting opposing political viewpoints (up from 72%) following their experience at America in One Room: Pennsylvania and 90% expressed willingness to compromise with political opponents (up from 80%). As a whole, 97% of participants reported that A1R: PA was valuable in helping them clarify their positions on key public policy issues debated.


America in One Room: Pennsylvania is the fifth Deliberative Polling® event organized by Helena in collaboration with Stanford’s Deliberative Democracy Lab. Public Opinion Strategies conducted outreach, selected the representative samples, and administered the questionnaires.

Full results and executive summary are available below:

About America in One Room:
America in One Room inspires communities to ignite civic engagement, fostering collaborative solutions for their most pressing challenges. Since 2019, America in One Room has conducted groundbreaking Deliberative Polling® experiments across the country.

About Helena:
Helena is a global problem-solving organization that seeks to implement solutions to critical societal challenges through nonprofit, for-profit, and legislative actions. Helena’s nonprofit projects include America in One Room, which garnered the attention of President Barack Obama and The New York TimesBiosecurity in the Age of AI, which focuses on risks emerging at the intersection of AI and biotechnology; and The COVID Project, which supplied tens of millions of units of medical supplies and personal protective equipment to frontline responders during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since its founding in 2020, Helena Special Investments has supported innovations in grid-scale energy storage (Energy Vault), AI controls to dramatically reduce energy consumption in industrial processes (Phaidra); and an innovation in Digital Twin technology enabling chronic disease reversals (Twin Health), among others. Helena operates its projects alongside a diverse group of multidisciplinary leaders called Helena members.

About the Deliberative Democracy Lab at Stanford University:
The Deliberative Democracy Lab (formerly the Center for Deliberative Democracy), housed within the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, is devoted to research about democracy and public opinion obtained through Deliberative Polling®

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America in One Room: The Youth Vote
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Historic America in One Room Deliberative Poll Releases Data on First-Time Voters' Political Attitudes Ahead of Presidential Election

Innovative project brings together first-ever representative sample of first-time voters from across the country to debate the key issues of our time.
Historic America in One Room Deliberative Poll Releases Data on First-Time Voters' Political Attitudes Ahead of Presidential Election
A voter casts their ballot in the Kentucky Primary Elections at Central High School on May 16, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky.
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New National Deliberative Poll Shows Bipartisan Support for Polarizing Issues Affecting American Democracy

"America in One Room: Democratic Reform" polled participants before and after deliberation to gauge their opinions on democratic reform initiatives, including voter access and voting protections, non-partisan election administration, protecting against election interference, Supreme Court reform, and more. The results show many significant changes toward bipartisan agreement, even on the most contentious issues.
New National Deliberative Poll Shows Bipartisan Support for Polarizing Issues Affecting American Democracy
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America in One Room: Pennsylvania
America in One Room: Pennsylvania explored what voters really think about pressing local and national issues, ranging from the state of democracy and elections to immigration, housing, and foreign affairs.
Photo courtesy of Helena
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America in One Room: Pennsylvania brings together a representative sample of registered Pennsylvania voters for a statewide Deliberative Poll in this crucial swing state, revealing surprising common ground and public opinion shifts on issues from immigration to healthcare to democratic reform.

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This essay analyzes Turkey’s 2024 local elections as a case of democratic resilience under authoritarian rule. Despite national setbacks, the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) achieved significant municipal victories through decentralized strategies, grassroots engagement, and pragmatic candidate selection. These wins challenged Erdoğan’s dominance and disrupted regime patronage networks, prompting intensified state repression, including the 19 March 2025 arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. Drawing on field research from key districts, the authors highlight how localized, service-oriented governance and inclusive coalitions can revive opposition credibility. However, sustaining these gains depends on navigating internal pressures and regime crackdowns. Turkey’s experience offers broader lessons for opposition movements confronting hybrid authoritarian systems.

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Journal of Democracy
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Ayça Alemdaroğlu
Aytuğ Şaşmaz
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Gi-Wook Shin
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This commentary was first published in the Journal of Democracy.



Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party won South Korea’s June 3 presidential election with 49.4 percent of the vote. The outcome was widely anticipated, given a political climate that strongly favored the liberal camp in the aftermath of the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol. Still, Lee’s victory was not as overwhelming as some might have expected. With 99.6 percent of the votes tallied, the two main conservative candidates — Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok — together garnered a slightly higher combined vote share of 49.5 percent (41.2 percent and 8.3 percent, respectively) Why, then, did Korean voters ultimately choose Lee Jae-myung but with a measured endorsement rather than a landslide victory, and what does it mean for Korean democracy?

This election followed a period of intense political turmoil that began with President Yoon’s declaration of martial law on December 3 of last year and his impeachment just two months ago. While the election results were expected, they still raise important questions about the future of Korean democracy. Do the last six months reflect the resilience of democratic institutions — capable of self-correction through legal and electoral processes — or, have these events exposed the fragility of Korea’s democracy, with its deep political divisions and public distrust in leadership?

In many ways, the answer is both. Civic engagement and a peaceful transfer of power during such a challenging episode suggest a strong democratic foundation. At the same time, the election outcome still shows a highly polarized electorate, underscoring the hurdles that lie ahead for Korean society and politics.

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2017 vs. 2025


This was the second time in a decade that Korea held a snap presidential election. The first occurred eight years ago, following the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye. In this regard, Koreans have grown familiar with the impeachment process and snap elections. In both instances, the impeached presidents — Park in 2017 and Yoon in 2025 — were conservatives, and both elections resulted in liberal victories, with Moon Jae-in (2017–22) and now Lee Jae-myung taking office.

The 2025 election, however, differs significantly from the 2017 contest, with important implications for Korean democracy.

First, the impeachment process this time was far more divisive. In 2017, liberal groups mobilized millions in mass protests demanding Park’s removal, and conservatives largely accepted the outcome without major resistance. In contrast, Yoon’s impeachment was extremely contentious, sparking counterprotests from conservative groups. Waving “Stop the Steal” signs, far-right movements gained strength, determined not to see a repeat of 2017, which not only led to defeat at the polls but also a brutal campaign of political retribution by the ensuing liberal government.

Second, this polarization profoundly influenced voting behavior. Even conservatives who criticized Yoon’s declaration of martial law ultimately rallied behind Kim, a candidate less critical of the controversial order. The left-right political divide had deepened during the Moon and Yoon administrations. In 2017, a centrist candidate like Ahn Cheol-soo could attract more than 20 percent of the vote. In 2025, however, such space for a centrist voice has all but vanished. The election became a fierce contest between liberals (Lee Jae-myung) and conservatives (Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok), reflecting the polarized electorate.

Third, the tense political atmosphere left little room for substantive policy debate. While important topics including artificial intelligence, energy, climate change, social reconciliation, and foreign policy were included in their campaign pledges, discussions around these issues remained superficial at best. Instead, the campaign was dominated by harsh personal attacks and negative rhetoric from all sides.

If Lee uses his consolidated executive and congressional power to settle political scores, the result will only deepen social divisions and facilitate democratic backsliding.
Gi-Wook Shin

Reformer or Strongman?


Given that this was a snap election, the new administration will assume office immediately on June 4 without the usual transition period. What can we expect from the new leader, particularly regarding Korea’s democratic future?

Lee’s appeal lies in his image as a pragmatic reformer, someone who speaks to economic struggles and social inequalities facing ordinary Koreans. His personal story itself resonates deeply: Born into poverty, he overcame significant hardship to become a human-rights lawyer, then rose through the political ranks as mayor of Seongnam, a city near Seoul, and later as governor of Gyeonggi Province, the most populous province in the country, before taking the Democratic Party leadership. This dramatic personal and political ascent has inspired many Korean citizens.

Yet Lee’s candidacy has not been without controversy. He remains under multiple criminal investigations and court trials related to charges of bribery, corruption, and breaking election laws, and his often-combative style has created the perception of a deeply polarizing figure. Many conservatives view Lee as a radical populist who shows insufficient regard for democratic norms and institutional checks.

Given the mixed perception and expectation surrounding President Lee, what kind of leadership can we expect from his administration? Two possible paths seem to lie ahead for the new leader still relatively unknown to the outside world: one resembling the approach of former president Moon Jae-in, and the other inspired by the legacy of Korea’s first liberal president, Kim Dae-jung (1998–2003). The direction Lee chooses will have major implications for the future of Korean democracy.

Lee may follow in the footsteps of Moon Jae-in, leading a campaign of political retribution that pushes Korea toward illiberal democracy. Lee has personal reasons for political resentment: He was aggressively investigated by the Yoon administration and still faces ongoing legal challenges. He has spoken publicly about the need to root out what he calls “forces of insurrection,” raising concerns that he might pursue a hardline campaign similar to Moon’s controversial efforts to “eradicate deep-rooted evils.”

Lee’s party has also pledged to advance judicial reforms that could weaken the Supreme Court, which on May 1 overturned an earlier acquittal by the Seoul High Court of Lee’s criminal charge of election-law violation. With his party now holding a parliamentary majority, traditional checks and balances could be on the line. If Lee uses his consolidated executive and congressional power to settle political scores, the result will only deepen social divisions and facilitate democratic backsliding. In such a scenario, he risks being viewed in Korea and elsewhere as yet another strongman leader in a world where such figures have been on the rise.

Alternatively, Lee could chart a course akin to that of former president Kim Dae-jung, who is widely considered a respected statesman and reformer. Kim overcame intense personal hardship, including a death sentence under a military regime, and yet chose reconciliation over revenge when he took power. He formed a coalition with conservative leader Kim Jong-pil and guided the country through the Asian financial crisis with a focus on national unity and pragmatic reform. Unlike Moon, who turned over power to the conservatives after five years, Kim effectively enabled a liberal succession.

Lee, often viewed as less ideological and more pragmatic than Moon, could take a similar path — one centered on cooperation, healing, and practical solutions. This possibility appears plausible given that his key advisors on both domestic and foreign affairs are not cut from the same cloth as Moon’s inner circle. By emulating Kim’s legacy, Lee could rise above political divides and earn broad national and international respect.

Ultimately, this election has been both a stress test and a reaffirmation of Korea’s democratic resilience. It highlights the urgent need for democratic renewal, while demonstrating that, even in times of deep political division, democratic institutions and norms can endure.
Gi-Wook Shin

What Lies Ahead?


The political drama of the last six months ended with this election, but its impact on Korea’s democracy will be enduring. On one hand, the peaceful resolution of a snap election, especially following the highly contentious impeachment process, demonstrates the strength and resilience of Korean democratic institutions. Voters remained highly engaged (turnout was 79.4 percent, the highest since 1997), and the electoral process held firm under pressure.

On the other hand, the deep partisan divides expose fissures in Korea’s democratic fabric. Mistrust in political elites, a divided society, and a highly polarized media environment often dominated by sensationalism continue to threaten constructive democratic dialogue. Moreover, the rise of populist rhetoric on both the left and right reflects an electorate increasingly driven by emotional appeals or identity politics rather than substantive policy debate or national vision. Without a concerted effort by both liberals and conservatives toward reconciliation, political polarization is likely to deepen. Bridging that divide will be one of the most critical and difficult tasks for Korean democracy.

Despite his election victory, Lee faces a challenging road ahead, both personally and politically. Since the Supreme Court overturned Lee’s acquittal of violating election law, the case is set to go back to the Seoul High Court for retrial on June 18. While the final ruling is likely to be delayed until after his term ends, the case may continue to cast a shadow over his integrity and credibility as the country’s top leader.

Lee also has the daunting task of delivering the institutional reforms promised during his campaign. In particular, he needs to follow up on his pledge to replace the current single five-year presidential term with a four-year term allowing for a subsequent reelection. This change could bring political stability, as presidents would have an incentive to perform well during their first term to secure a second one. Furthermore, a potential eight-year presidency would provide more time to implement long-term policies. Past presidents have made similar promises, but none have succeeded in realizing them. It remains to be seen whether Lee’s administration can rise above partisan politics and rebuild public trust through meaningful reforms.

Ultimately, this election has been both a stress test and a reaffirmation of Korea’s democratic resilience. It highlights the urgent need for democratic renewal, while demonstrating that, even in times of deep political division, democratic institutions and norms can endure. This lesson holds global relevance, particularly for the United States, where democracy is also being put to the test.



Gi-Wook Shin's Election Analysis in the Media


Lee Jae-myung begins his road to power. Can he fulfill his promises amid numerous challenges?
Caixin Media, June 6 (Chinese, subscription) quoted)

He survived a knife attack, stormed Parliament, and campaigned in a bulletproof vest. Now he's going to heal a country.
Politiken, June 4 (Danish, subscription) (quoted)

Lee Poised for Decisive Win in South Korea's Snap Election
AFP, June 3 (quoted)

New South Korean President Lee Takes Power After Resounding Election Win
AFP, June 3 (quoted)

The Challenges Facing South Korea's New Leader Lee
AFP, June 3 (quoted) 

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Protesters opposed to impeached South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol gather near the Constitutional Court on April 04, 2025, in Seoul, South Korea.
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Interview: Stanford Sociologist Gi-Wook Shin Analyzes South Korea’s Impeachment Crisis and the Dangers of Political Polarization

In an interview with the Chinese newspaper The Paper, Gi-Wook Shin, the director of APARC and the Korea Program, discusses the risks posed by South Korea’s division and polarization following President Yoon’s impeachment, the global trend of democratic decline, and actionable reforms to advance and secure South Korea’s democratic future.
Interview: Stanford Sociologist Gi-Wook Shin Analyzes South Korea’s Impeachment Crisis and the Dangers of Political Polarization
A man standing outside a building inspecting damage to a broken window.
Blogs

Korea’s Bumpy Road Toward Democracy

The historical and sociopolitical contexts of President Yoon’s declaration of martial law and its aftermath
Korea’s Bumpy Road Toward Democracy
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Marking Twenty Years of Leadership at APARC

As he prepares to step down as APARC director, Professor Gi-Wook Shin reflects on two transformative decades at the center and the road ahead.
Marking Twenty Years of Leadership at APARC
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Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, and his wife Kim Hea-Kyung celebrate in front of the National Assembly on June 4, 2025 in Seoul, South Korea.
Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, and his wife Kim Hea-Kyung celebrate in front of the National Assembly on June 4, 2025, in Seoul, South Korea.
Woohae Cho/ Getty Images
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South Koreans have elected Lee Jae-myung president. Will he be a pragmatic democratic reformer? Or will he continue the polarizing political warfare of recent South Korean leaders?

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Soraya Johnson
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Conventional indicators may suggest that the United States is not susceptible to democratic backsliding, given its levels of wealth and the longevity of its political institutions. Yet a different picture emerges when considering assaults on the law following President Donald Trump’s return to power. In a recent CDDRL seminar. U.C. Berkeley Distinguished Professor of Political Science Paul Pierson examined the institutional roots of this trend and how it was shaped by the current moment of polarization and rising inequality.

Deepening partisanship, Pierson explained, has eroded the checks and balances embedded in U.S. institutions. Some assert that polarization is not abnormal in our country’s history, but Pierson believes that the state of polarization today poses unprecedented challenges. Politics has been increasingly nationalized, with state elections serving as a virtual training ground for ambitious politicians. Local media have declined in influence relative to nationally oriented partisan news outlets like Fox News. State issues are blending into national politics. These trends have undermined the system of federalism that historically kept the national government in check. 

As politicians have become more concerned about teamsmanship and partisan loyalty, the path of least resistance for them has been to prop up their party leaders even at the expense of democratic processes. In the past, partisan politicians could be trusted to keep their leaders in check should they behave undemocratically, regardless of how popular they may be. A case in point is President Richard Nixon, who had been reelected in a landslide in 1972, but was later held accountable by members of his own party once his transgressions were revealed in the wake of the Watergate scandal. The same cannot be said for the contemporary Trump era, as politicians appear reluctant to hold their president accountable due to partisan considerations. This trend has undermined horizontal oversight and, arguably, vertical accountability. On the latter, political elites have failed to adequately press citizens to hold the current administration accountable. 

The U.S. remains an extreme outlier in its growing wealth inequality, as mirrored by the ascendancy of ultra-wealthy plutocrats. Campaign funding has been increasingly dominated by the ultra-wealthy, many of whom supported the Republican ticket in the 2024 election. That said, these individuals’ influence is not unlimited, considering that the president has leverage over them and has shown willingness to threaten their interests should they behave disloyally. 

Despite blatant warning signs, there are some reasons to temper the alarmism surrounding the prospects of democratic backsliding in the United States. President Trump is not overwhelmingly popular, and aspects of his agenda will unlikely garner support from most of the electorate. Furthermore, whether his legacy will endure following the end of his presidency is unclear. Indeed, the vulnerabilities of U.S. political institutions remain salient. But plenty of room remains for resisting anti-democratic transgressions, given the non-partisan orientation of the judiciary and the small size of the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The challenges confronting U.S. political institutions in the face of hyperpolarization and deepening wealth inequality demonstrate that democracy should not be taken for granted and that more efforts are needed to protect and strengthen democratic accountability.

A recording of Professor Pierson's talk can be viewed below:

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Clémence Tricaud presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on May 15, 2025.
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Margins That Matter: Understanding the Changing Nature of U.S. Elections

In a CDDRL research seminar, Clémence Tricaud, Assistant Professor of Economics at the UCLA Anderson School of Management, shared her research on the evolving nature of electoral competition in the United States. She explored a question of growing political and public interest: Are U.S. elections truly getting closer—and if so, why does that matter?
Margins That Matter: Understanding the Changing Nature of U.S. Elections
Grigore Pop-Eleches discussed his research in a REDS Seminar on May 1, 2025.
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Empathy in Action: How Perspective-Taking Shapes Public Support for Ukraine in Eastern Europe

In a REDS seminar talk, co-hosted by CDDRL and The Europe Center, Princeton Professor of Politics Grigore Pop-Eleches shared findings from a major research project examining what drives support for Ukraine — and whether empathy can help counter growing war fatigue.
Empathy in Action: How Perspective-Taking Shapes Public Support for Ukraine in Eastern Europe
Danila Serra presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on May 8, 2025.
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Impacts of Ethics Training on Police Officers in Ghana

Associate Professor at Texas A&M University Danila Serra’s field research on the impacts of police ethics training provides hope for reducing corruption and restoring public faith in state institutions.
Impacts of Ethics Training on Police Officers in Ghana
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Paul Pierson presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on May 22, 2025.
Paul Pierson presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on May 22, 2025.
Soraya Johnson
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University of California, Berkeley Distinguished Professor Paul Pierson explores the risks of democratic backsliding in the United States in the face of rising polarization and inequality.

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Khushmita Dhabhai
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As part of the CDDRL research seminar series, Clémence Tricaud, Assistant Professor of Economics at the UCLA Anderson School of Management, delivered a talk on the evolving nature of electoral competition in the United States. Her presentation explored a question of growing political and public interest: Are U.S. elections truly getting closer — and if so, why does that matter?

To begin answering this, Tricaud emphasized the need to clarify what we mean by “closeness.” She distinguished between vote margins, which measure how much one candidate wins over another in a specific race, and seat margins, which reflect the difference in how many seats each party wins in a legislative body like the House, Senate, or Electoral College.

These margins have real consequences. Seat margins affect which party holds power, the likelihood of legislative gridlock, and how legitimate elected officials are perceived to be. Vote margins, on the other hand, influence how informed and motivated voters are, especially if they feel their votes can truly make a difference.

Using a vast dataset covering over 150 years of U.S. federal elections, Tricaud and her coauthors documented a striking trend: while seat margins have narrowed significantly over the past 60 years, vote margins have remained relatively stable. In fact, there has been a decline in the number of extremely close races at the district level. This raises a puzzling question — how can national elections appear tighter if the races themselves are not actually becoming more competitive?

To address this, Tricaud presented a novel theoretical model of electoral competition. Building on the classic “Downsian framework,” where candidates try to appeal to the median voter, her model incorporates multiple districts, national and local shifts in voter preferences, and differences in whether candidates tailor their platforms to local constituencies or follow national party lines.

The model explains that two major changes have reshaped U.S. elections:

  1. Better Information: Thanks to advances in polling and data analytics, candidates now have a much clearer sense of where voters stand.
  2. Nationalization of Politics: Candidates increasingly campaign on unified national platforms rather than platforms tailored to respond to local issues.
     

Together, these changes help parties target just enough competitive districts to win control, even if many races remain lopsided. This leads to narrower seat margins without narrower vote margins.

Tricaud also examined campaign finance data to show how this shift affects political behavior. Since only a small number of districts are truly competitive, campaign resources are increasingly concentrated in these few swing districts. This geographic targeting could have troubling implications: growing political attention to a handful of places, rising regional inequalities, and a sense of disconnection between local voters and national outcomes.

In sum, Clémence Tricaud’s presentation provided a fresh lens on how modern campaigns operate and why elections may feel closer than they truly are. By disentangling seat and vote margins, her work sheds light on the evolving dynamics of U.S. democracy — and the challenges that come with it.

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Danila Serra presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on May 8, 2025.
News

Impacts of Ethics Training on Police Officers in Ghana

Associate Professor at Texas A&M University Danila Serra’s field research on the impacts of police ethics training provides hope for reducing corruption and restoring public faith in state institutions.
Impacts of Ethics Training on Police Officers in Ghana
Grigore Pop-Eleches discussed his research in a REDS Seminar on May 1, 2025.
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Empathy in Action: How Perspective-Taking Shapes Public Support for Ukraine in Eastern Europe

In a REDS seminar talk, co-hosted by CDDRL and The Europe Center, Princeton Professor of Politics Grigore Pop-Eleches shared findings from a major research project examining what drives support for Ukraine — and whether empathy can help counter growing war fatigue.
Empathy in Action: How Perspective-Taking Shapes Public Support for Ukraine in Eastern Europe
CDDRL Postdoctoral Fellow Ivetta Sergeeva presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on April 24, 2025.
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How Transnational Repression Impacts Exiled Opposition

CDDRL Postdoctoral Fellow Ivetta Sergeeva’s research on the Russian diaspora’s willingness to donate to oppositional organizations demonstrates that the criminalization of groups can incentivize greater donor support among emigrants, contrary to the Putin regime’s intentions.
How Transnational Repression Impacts Exiled Opposition
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Clémence Tricaud presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on May 15, 2025.
Clémence Tricaud presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on May 15, 2025.
Khushmita Dhabhai
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In a CDDRL research seminar, Clémence Tricaud, Assistant Professor of Economics at the UCLA Anderson School of Management, shared her research on the evolving nature of electoral competition in the United States. She explored a question of growing political and public interest: Are U.S. elections truly getting closer—and if so, why does that matter?

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