Security

FSI scholars produce research aimed at creating a safer world and examing the consequences of security policies on institutions and society. They look at longstanding issues including nuclear nonproliferation and the conflicts between countries like North and South Korea. But their research also examines new and emerging areas that transcend traditional borders – the drug war in Mexico and expanding terrorism networks. FSI researchers look at the changing methods of warfare with a focus on biosecurity and nuclear risk. They tackle cybersecurity with an eye toward privacy concerns and explore the implications of new actors like hackers.

Along with the changing face of conflict, terrorism and crime, FSI researchers study food security. They tackle the global problems of hunger, poverty and environmental degradation by generating knowledge and policy-relevant solutions. 

Josef Joffe is the Marc and Anita Abramowitz Fellow in International Relations at the Hoover Institution and is publisher-editor of the German weekly Die Zeit.

Joffe's areas of interest include U.S. foreign policy, international security policy, European-American relations, Europe and Germany, and the Middle East.

His essays and reviews have appeared in a wide number of publications including the New York Review of Books, Times Literary Supplement, Commentary, New York Times Magazine, New Republic, Weekly Standard, and the Prospect. Additionally, his scholarly work has appeared in many books and in journals such as Foreign Affairs, the National Interest, International Security, and Foreign Policy as well as in professional journals in Germany, Britain, and France.

Joffe is currently an adjunct professor of political science at Stanford, where he was the Payne Distinguished Lecturer in 1999-2000. He also is a distinguished fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford. In 1990-91, he taught at Harvard, where he is also an associate of the Olin Institute for Strategic Studies. He was a visiting lecturer in 2002 at Dartmouth College and in 1998 at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School. He was a professorial lecturer at Johns Hopkins (School of Advanced International Studies) in 1982-1984. He has taught at the University of Munich and the Salzburg Seminar.

His most recent book is Überpower: The Imperial Temptation in American Foreign Policy.

Reared in Berlin, Joffe obtained his Ph.D. degree in government from Harvard.

http://www.hoover.org/bios/joffe

 

Event Synopsis:

Professor Joffe opens his talk with two movie quotes, "With great power comes great responsibility" from Spiderman, and "If you build it, they will come" from Field of Dreams. Both quotes, he explains, relate to the idea of modern American hegemony. The United States must concern itself with policies and institutions that promote its own interests and those of others, and by doing so will attract international support and cooperation as it did in the "golden age" of American-led institutions such as NATO. This era ended with the fall of the Soviet Union, following which the United States has seen its legitimacy decline lower than ever, even while accumulating unprecedented military power. The void left by the Soviet Union has unbalanced the global power structure and caused other countries to turn against the aggressive policies of the new single hegemon, the United States, in situations like the invasion of Iraq under George W. Bush.  Professor Joffe describes the role that America's "imperial temptation" played in its invasion of Iraq, causing a further decline in America’s global legitimacy, a crumbling of international support, and an unwitting boon to Ahmadinejad's regime in Iran, which Joffe considers to be the real threat and which essentially had its "dirty work" of removing Saddam Hussein from power done for it by the United States. Joffe urges the U.S. to think strategically about how collaboration with other countries can help rebuild mutually beneficial institutions and bolster U.S. legitimacy, rather than approaching its role in the world ideologically, treating other nations with contempt and turning them against the U.S.

 

A discussion session included such questions as: What has the role of American exceptionalism played in the events of the last decade? Was the outcome of the most recent Iraq war inevitable, or was it a result of bad policies and poor handling by the U.S. government? How can a country go so wrong as the US has (in pursuing the "wrong war, in the wrong country, at wrong time" as Joffe describes)? To what extent has the de-legitimization of the US been caused by its policy toward Israel? What should the U.S. approach now be toward Iran?

Josef Joffe Editor Speaker Die Zeit
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Ambassador Eva Nowotny is the official representative of the Republic of Austria in the United States and is responsible for all aspects of the relationship between the two countries. On December 04, 2003 she presented her credentials to President George W. Bush at the White House. She is also Permanent Representative of the Observer Mission of Austria to the Organization of American States (OAS) and Ambassador to the Commonwealth of the Bahamas.

Cosponsored by the Consulate General of Austria, Los Angeles http://www.austria.org

 

Audio Synopsis:

In this presentation, Ambassador Nowotny offers her thoughts on Austria's recent six month presidency of the European Union, which she points out has fostered an increase in positive attitudes toward the EU on behalf of Austrian citizens. While 2005 was a difficult year for the EU in light of the French and Dutch rejections of the latest treaty and disagreement about enlargement policy especially with respect to Turkey, the Austrian presidency has "reestablished a cooperative climate" and a degree of optimism to the European Union. Several unexpected events early in Austria's presidency presented challenges, including Russia's decision to stop the flow of Gazprom gas to Ukraine, the Maoist uprising in Nepal, and Iran's declaration that it would continue developing nuclear weapons. Austria used these challenges as an opportunity to reinvigorate discussion of foreign policy and negotiate a coherent EU response to international conflicts. 

The ambassador then highlights key issues dominating Austria's presidency. These include the debate over the future of Europe, centering on the constitutional treaty and enlargement; the internal development of the European project, especially fostering economic competitiveness and addressing crime and terrorism; and the role of Europe in the world, where Austria has contributed strongly by helping to resolve conflicts like those in the Balkans, and helping to develop Europe's "neighborhood policy." 

Finally, Ambassador Nowotny emphasizes the importance of the transatlantic relationship, which she feels the US and Europe attach equal weight to. Key areas of cooperation in years to come will include resolving international conflicts and dealing with crises, fostering the transatlantic economic partnership, improving international governance structures, and combatting terrorism.

A discussion session following the presentation raised such questions as: Where are there differences between the interests of Austria and of the European Union? In a post-9/11 world, do we have the institutional structure necessary to deal with new issues such as terrorism, and can we rely on those left over from WWII (NATO, OSCE, etc.)? Does Austria approach Southern and Eastern European countries as one group or does it prefer to deal with them individually?

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Eva Nowotny Austrian Ambassador to the United States Speaker
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Russian nuclear forces are not as ill prepared as a Foreign Affairs article might suggest, writes CISAC research associate Pavel Podvig. His letter, in the September-October 2006 issue of Foreign Affairs, responds to "The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy," by Keir Lieber and former CISAC fellow Daryl Press, in the March-April 2006 issue. For a longer version of Podvig's comment and further discussion of Lieber and Press' article, see Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces: "Speaking of nuclear primacy".

In arguing that the United States has achieved nuclear primacy and thereby made mutual assured destruction obsolete, Lieber and Press rely on some questionable assumptions about the status of Russia's strategic forces.

To make their case that the Russian strategic nuclear arsenal "has sharply deteriorated," Lieber and Press quote statistics showing that Russia today has "39 percent fewer long-range bombers, 58 percent fewer ICBMs, and 80 percent fewer SSBNs [ballistic-missile-launching submarines] than the Soviet Union fielded during its last days." These numbers are generally correct, but a similarly one-sided examination of U.S. forces would have painted a similarly dire portrait; after all, the U.S. nuclear arsenal today has 66 percent fewer strategic bombers, 50 percent fewer ICBMs, and more than 50 percent fewer ballistic missile submarines than it possessed during the Cold War.

Lieber and Press claim that Russia's strategic bombers "rarely conduct training exercises," implying that Russia's military is neglecting strategic aviation. Yet Russia's strategic air forces participated in four major exercises in 2005 alone. Similarly, Lieber and Press refer to a number of failures during launches of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) in 2004 to illustrate the decline of the Russian navy. But they do not mention the much larger number of successful launches or the Bulava SLBM development program, which has been quite successful so far.

It may be true, as Lieber and Press write, that "over 80 percent of Russia's silo-based ICBMs have exceeded their original service lives," but regular and successful tests of ICBMs that have been kept in silos for 25 years or longer suggest that this has not affected the missiles' reliability. Russia is decommissioning its ICBMs not because they are unreliable but because it does not need them. Lieber and Press claim that the development of the next-generation Russian ICBM, the Topol-M, has been "stymied by failed tests." But of 15 flight tests conducted to date, only one has failed -- a remarkable achievement for any missile-development program. It is true that the production rate of new Topol-Ms is low, but that may be because Russia has decided to concentrate on producing the mobile version of the missile, which it will begin deploying this year.

Lieber and Press are right to state that Russia may end up having as few as 150 land-based missiles by the end of the decade. But about half of those ICBMs would probably be road-mobile Topols and Topol-Ms, which, if operated properly, would have a good chance of surviving a first strike. Lieber and Press dismiss Russia's mobile missiles by saying that they "rarely patrol." In reality, very little is known about Russia's mobile-missile patrol rates, and although it is quite plausible that they are low, it is a stretch to assume that they are zero.

Lieber and Press describe Russia's early warning system as "a mess." In fact, although the system is past its prime, it has lost surprisingly little of its effectiveness. It may seem counterintuitive, but Russia would gain very little were its early warning system to be deployed to the fullest extent. Adding the capability to detect SLBM launches would not dramatically increase the time available to the Russian leadership for assessing attacks. The much-discussed "gaping hole" in the radar coverage east of Russia also should be put in context. Missiles launched from the Pacific could not cover the entire range of Russian targets that would need to be destroyed in a first strike. The scenario that Lieber and Press postulate, in which "Russian leaders probably would not know of the attack until the warheads detonated" because of flaws in their early warning system, is simply impossible.

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Akbar Ganji will speak about the status of the Iranian democratic movement as well as the coherency of the Iranian regime. He will speculate about the implications of Iranian domestic politics for international security issues.

Akbar Ganji is Iran's most celebrated dissident and investigative journalist. He has won numerous prestigious awards in Europe and North America. His fifty-six day hunger strike turned him into a figure of international fame, with many heads of states and hundreds of the world's most renowned public intellectuals demanding his safety and freedom. Ganji first gained prominence in Iran as an investigative journalist when he helped uncover a government conspiracy to murder Iranian intellectuals. In response, the regime put him in prison for six years. Behind bars, Ganji continued to write and produced his famous Republican Manifesto where he argued in favor of a secular liberal democracy for Iran. Mr. Ganji is making his visit to the United States since being released from prison. He will speak in Farsi with consecutive translation in English.

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

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The European Forum has taken a new name: The Forum on Contemporary Europe. This new name reflects the focus on contemporary issues facing Europe and its trans-Atlantic and global relations at the start of the twenty-first century. The change also reflects the directors' ambitious plans for growth in the near to mid-term future to meet scholarly and public dissemination needs for a program of research residencies, visionary teaching, and notable publications. The Forum's focus on Europe today spotlights timely issues and prominent figures in venues including:

    Europe Now - Annual lecture by a prominent European public figure that addresses political, economic, security, and environmental issues facing the region and trans-Atlantic relations. This year's address will be delivered by the European Parliament's Greens/European Free Alliance Co-President, Daniel Cohn-Bendit.

    European Integration/Payne Distinguished Lecture - Lecture by a prominent European public figure that addresses timely issues of integrating the expanding number of EU member states. This year's address will be delivered by best-selling author Ian McEwan.

    Austrian and Central European Studies - The Forum will host an address on Austria's immediate past presidency of the European Council, delivered by the Honorable Eva Nowotny, Austrian Ambassador to the United States. The Ambassador's address will introduce the 2006-2007 interdisciplinary research and teaching program that brings a senior professor from an Austrian national competition to Stanford for a full-year Austrian chair position, and includes a multi-year conference meeting in Vienna and at Stanford. This year the program will also include a research symposium on the fiftieth anniversary of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution.

    EU-US Trade Relations conference - Annual event addressing international trade issues, global markets, and the interface between developing and developed countries.

    Europe's changing ethnography research and lecture theme - The Forum sponsors researchers and public figures on a wide range of contemporary issues, and is scheduling a series of speakers and research projects on this year's topic of the changing ethnographic make-up of the European community.

Through this growth, the Forum continues to be dedicated to innovative thinking about Europe in the new millennium. The expansion of the European Union deepens the challenges of democratic governance, economic growth, security, and cultural integration. The increasingly complex challenges facing Europe and its global relations - including labor migration, strains on welfare economies, local identities, globalized cultures, expansion and integration, and threats of terrorism, coupled with Europe's recent struggle to ratify a single constitution - underline the need for analysis informed by public figures with policy background. Established in 1997, the Forum conducts trans-Atlantic research and convenes public programs to offer creative and cooperative solutions. Distinct from many academic programs at U.S. research universities, the European Forum at FSI focuses on public programs and the wide-spread dissemination of its research findings. The Forum focuses study of Europe on research themes including FSI's priority emphasis on international political economy, security, global environment, and good governance.

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The Forum on Contemporary Europe is pleased to announce the hire of Dr. Roland Hsu as Assistant Director. Dr. Hsu is responsible for the Forum's daily operations, and works closely with the Forum's Director, Professor Amir Eshel, and Program Assistant Nancy Easterbrook on strategic planning and research and public dissemination program designs. Dr. Hsu is also Lecturer in the Introduction to Humanities Program at Stanford University. Dr. Hsu has been brought on board to develop the Forum's ambitious plans to expand its programs, to identify and coordinate international research teams, and to support flexible, interdisciplinary projects that respond in practical terms to the dynamics of European studies.

Founded in 1997, the Forum at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) has created a program for new thinking about Europe in the new millennium. The increasingly complex challenges facing Europe and its global relations - including labor migration, strains on welfare economies, local identities, globalized cultures, expansion and integration, and threats of terrorism, coupled with Europe's recent struggle to ratify a single constitution, underline the need at this point to build on the Forum's success and utilize Dr. Hsu's faculty research and senior administrative experience to shape the growth of the Forum as a sustained and dynamic inter-disciplinary program.

The directors' plans for the Forum's growth include sustained research residencies, a visionary teaching program, and an influential publication series. The plans aim to make the program address the most pressing issues facing Europe and its trans-Atlantic and global relations at the start of the 21st century. Along with the affiliated research programs at FSI, the Forum will also play an important part in advancing the agenda of Stanford's International Initiative - the campus-wide effort, based in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, to bring together faculty, researchers and students to address the global challenges of peace and security, governance, and human well-being. The Forum's scholars will analyze models for answers to these challenges in case studies of Western and Eastern European, Scandinavian, and European Union histories and policy initiatives.

Before coming to Stanford Dr. Hsu was Assistant Professor of Modern European History at the University of Idaho, and Senior Associate Director of Undergraduate Advising and Research at Stanford, as well as Academic Advisor in the College of the University of Chicago. At Chicago Dr. Hsu earned his doctorate in Modern European History, and taught in the Humanities and also served as Assistant Director of the University Writing Programs. His research and teaching explore the relationship between politics, art, and memory. Dr. Hsu wrote his dissertation on modern European intellectual and cultural history at the University of Chicago. His most recent work on post-Revolutionary France reconsiders the use of the analytic category of memory in historical interpretation. The book manuscript in progress: Troubling Memory: Making Monuments, Tourists, and a Collective Past in Nineteenth-Century France engages scholarly literature on collective memory by reintroducing gender, work, and neighborhood network identities to differentiate the "collectivities" of collective memory.

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Lawrence F. Kaplan is senior editor at The New Republic, where he writes about U.S. foreign policy and international affairs. At this seminar, he will discuss military operations in Iraq, the implications for politics here at home, and competing explanations for what went wrong. On this last point, the speaker hopes to engage in a dialogue with the audience.

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Lawrence Kaplan Senior Editor Speaker The New Republic
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Dr. Hakjoon Kim has been President and Publisher of Dong-A Ilbo (East Asia Daily) since 2001. His career has spanned the fields of journalism, public policy and academia. After earning his Ph.D. in political science from the University of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania in 1972, Kim spend a year as a research associate as the university's Asian Studies Program in the University Center for International Studies and as a research assistant professor in the Department of Political Science. In 1973 he returned to Korea and spent the next 16 years as a professor and a visiting scholar at various universities in Korea and then in Japan, the United States, Germany, Austria, and London.

In 1989, Kim was elected to the Korean National Assembly and became the chief policy assistant, press secretary, and spokesperson for the president of Korea. In 1993 he rejoined the academic world as chairperson of the board of directors and professor at Dankook University while still keeping one foot in the policy world as advisor to the Korean Ministry of Unification and then to the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Affairs.

During this time, Dr. Kim was also publishing books in English on Korean politics, books in Korean on the history of Russia and the Soviet Union, and publishing articles in numerous journals, such as Asian Survey (UC Berkeley), Journal of Northeast Asian Studies (Washington, D.C.), Japan Review of International Affairs (Tokyo), Korea and World Affairs (Seoul), Security Dialogue (Oslo), Far Eastern Affairs (Moscow) and other professional journals. In 1983 he won the Best Book Prize, which was awarded by the Korean Political Science Association for his book Han'guk Chongch'i Ron (On Korean Politics,) Seoul, 1983.

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Hakjoon Kim President and Publisher, Dong A Ilbo, Korea Speaker
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Against the backdrop of export-led growth of some economies -- most notably China and India -- human development issues in Asia tend to be overlooked. The 2006 report Trade on Human Terms, produced by the United Nations Development Programme, finds that trade has contributed to further increasing the inequality both between and within countries. In addition, it warns that many of the region's open economies, particularly the East Asian success stories, are creating far fewer jobs, especially for youth and women, and experiencing "jobless growth." Many of the developing countries in the Asia-Pacific are now net importers of agricultural products; food security has thus become an emerging issue.

While Asia and the Pacific have embraced globalization, the regions poor are being left behind and will be so without determined action by governments. The report recommends that those countries adopt bold new policies that harness trade and economic growth, suggesting an "eight-point agenda" that includes investing for competitiveness; adopting strategic trade policies; restoring a focus on agriculture; combating jobless growth; and others.

Dr. Hafiz A. Pasha will discuss the findings and recommendations of this ground-breaking and thoughtful report which can be viewed at:

Asia - Pacific Human Development Report 2006

Dr. Hafiz A. Pasha is UN assistant secretary-general and UNDP assistant administrator and director of the Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific. He has served as the commerce and trade minister, minister for finance and economic affairs, deputy chairman of the Planning Commission, and education minister in three government administrations in Pakistan.

Prior to his government work, Dr. Pasha was the vice chancellor/president of the University of Karachi and dean and director of the Institute of Business Administration in Karachi, Pakistan.

Dr. Pasha has published extensively in the fields of trade, public finance, social development, and poverty reduction. He has an M.A. from Cambridge University and a Ph.D. from Stanford University.

Pasha was recently awarded the Congressional Medal of Achievement by the Philippines Congress in recognition of his work on poverty reduction, achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by the Asia-Pacific countries and his role in leading UNDP's response to the 2004 tsunami tragedy.

Philippines Conference Room

Hafiz A. Pasha UN Assistant Secretary General and Director of the Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific Speaker The United Nations Development Programme
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The Rule of Law is perhaps the key indicator of democratic consolidation and quality, yet its development has eluded many transitional states. At the dawn of the 21st Century international actors play a critical, yet under-researched role in domestic processes of democratic development. This project brings together these two insights to develop new theoretical and empirical knowledge about the interaction between external influence and domestic legal, institutional and normative development.

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