The Europe Center Newsletter October 2017
FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.
Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.
FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.
Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.
Sponsored by the United States–Japan Foundation, the Elgin Heinz Teacher Award recognizes exceptional teachers who further mutual understanding between Americans and Japanese. The award is presented annually to pre-college teachers in two categories, humanities and Japanese language. It is named in honor of Elgin Heinz for his commitment to educating students about Asia as well as for the inspiration he has provided to the field of pre-college education.
SPICE’s Reischauer Scholars Program Manager and Instructor Naomi Funahashi has won the 2017 Elgin Heinz Teacher Award for her teaching excellence with the Reischauer Scholars Program (RSP), an online course named in honor of former Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer that introduces Japan and U.S.–Japan relations to high school students in the United States. Funahashi formally accepted the award at Stanford University on November 20, 2017.
In his opening comments, David Janes, Director of Foundation Grants and Assistant to the President, United States–Japan Foundation, who hosted the ceremony, praised Funahashi, explaining why she is so deserving of the distinction: “Like Ambassador Reischauer, Naomi knows how global education at the high school level can transform kids for life, making them better leaders for the future.”
Comments from the Honorable Jun Yamada, Consul General of Japan, were shared by Maiko Tamagawa, Advisor for Educational Affairs, Consulate General of Japan in San Francisco. Consul General Yamada noted, “Ms. Funahashi is indeed an extraordinary educator. Her dedication and commitment to inspiring and empowering young Americans to become experts on Japan is an invaluable contribution to the promotion of mutual understanding between our two countries.” Consul General Yamada, who serves on the advisory committee of the RSP, also graciously hosted a dinner at his residence in honor of Funahashi in July 2017, shortly after the announcement of the award.
SPICE Director Gary Mukai, who nominated Funahashi for the award, commented that “Naomi is extremely dedicated to her students, and I hear regular praise from her students, including those who have matriculated to Stanford. Elgin would have rave reviews of her interdisciplinary approach to teaching… Because of Naomi, the original RSP goal of creating a new generation of leaders in the U.S.–Japan relationship has become a reality.”
David Janes (United States–Japan Foundation) presents the 2017 Elgin Heinz Teacher Award to Naomi Funahashi (SPICE)
Former RSP student and recent Stanford graduate Aryo Sorayya spoke next and thanked Funahashi for extending herself to students far beyond the RSP’s course requirements themselves. Sorayya spoke not only about Funahashi’s careful attention to students’ work but also her sincere interest in their college plans and careers.
Also in attendance were former Ambassador to Japan Michael Armacost; many Stanford scholars—including Takeo Hoshi, Kenji Kushida, and Phillip Lipscy—who contribute lectures, lead online “virtual classrooms,” and/or serve as principal investigators of the RSP; former recipients the Elgin Heinz Teacher Award Norman Masuda and Saya Okimoto McKenna; and members of Funahashi’s family, including her mother Jan Funahashi, husband Rich Lee, and three-year-old son Akira, hopefully a future RSP student in 2030.
Funahashi was born in Tokyo and grew up moving between the United States and Japan. Naomi has resided in the San Francisco Bay Area since 2000, joining SPICE in 2005. She is a graduate of Brown University (BA), San Francisco State University (teaching credential), and the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign (M.Ed.). She has served as Manager and Instructor of the RSP since joining SPICE.
Find more information on the Elgin Heinz Teacher Awards online
http://us-jf.org/programs/elgin-heinz-teacher-awards/
To stay informed of SPICE-related news, follow SPICE on Facebook and Twitter.
Thom Holme received a BA in history from the University of Florida, and an MA in modern Central Asian History from the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
Thom initially came to Stanford as Communications and Outreach Coordinator with the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. In October of 2019, he joined FSI as the Web Manager.
Prior to Stanford, Thom worked mainly in public education in New York City. He resides in Syracuse, NY.
Abstract: What are the causes of change in Russian declaratory nuclear strategy? Three cases of Russian declaratory nuclear strategy, the military doctrines from 1993, 2000 and 2010, demonstrate significant variation in the role nuclear weapons play in Russian national security.
JSPS Fellowships for Research in Japan: Information Session for Stanford University Scholars
Holds citizenship of a country that has diplomatic relations with Japan
Exception: JSPS Postdoctoral Short-term Program (hold citizenship or permanent residency of US, Canada, EU, Switzerland, Norway or Russia)
Holds PhD by start of fellowship AND be within six years of receiving your PhD
Exception: JSPS Postdoctoral Short-term Program (hold the status above OR be enrolled in a doctoral course AND be scheduled to receive a Ph.D. within 2 years)
Holds a full-time position at a research institution equivalent to professor, associate professor, or assistant professor
Exception: Short-term S Program (be a Nobel laureate or equivalent)
Exception: Non-faculty researchers who are conducting research at a university or non-profit institution (case-by-case)
Exception: Non-faculty researchers who've held a PhD for 6 years or more and are conducting research at a university or non-profit research institution
The Japan Program hosted the Abe Fellows Global Forum, “Confronting Climate Change: What Can the U.S. and Japan Contribute to Creating Sustainable Societies?” at Bechtel Conference Center at Stanford University on October 20, 2017. The event was co-organized with the Social Science Research Council, in collaboration with the Center for Global Partnership of the Japan Foundation, which funds the Abe Fellowship Program.
The conference opened with a remark by George P. Shultz, Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow, Hoover Institution at Stanford University and former US Secretary of State and US Secretary of Treasury followed by a keynote by Michael Armacost, Shorenstein APARC Fellow at Stanford University and former ambassador to Japan and the Philippines, who addressed questions on strategies for reducing energy consumption and possibilities for future international cooperation between Japan and the United States on climate change.
Following the keynote speech, experts from Japan and the United States engaged in a panel discussion and shared some of the lessons that have been learned from Asia’s experience. Toshi Arimura, Professor, Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, presented the experience of carbon pricing in the U.S. and Japan and the successful experience in both countries. Janelle Knox-Hayes, Lister Brothers Associate Professor of Economic Geography and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, pointed out the importance of the socio-political context in various countries for creating well-functioning markets for carbon emission. Philip Lipscy, Assistant Professor of Political Science and Thomas Rohlen Center Fellow at FSI, Stanford University, discussed how the political context has been influencing Japan’s energy policies. Dana Buntrock, Chair, Center for Japanese Studies and Professor of Architecture, UC Berkeley, presented how specific contexts in Japan and the U.s. have shaped the energy policies in two countries.
The conference was followed by a reception in the Oksenberg Conference Room.
Phillip Lipscy examines Trump administration's decision to withdraw U.S. membership from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization in an article in The Hill.
Abstract: In this talk, I present three findings from an in-depth investigation of the US Drone War in Pakistan from 2004 to 2014. First, I use a panel estimation strategy to show a negative statistical association between the drone war period from 2008 onward and insurgent violence in Pakistan. Second, I use a process tracing approach, drawing on data collected through fieldwork in Pakistan including interviews with members of Al-Qaeda and Pakistan Taliban, to show the drone war period from 2008 to 2014 led to dramatic reduction in the targeted organizations’ operational capabilities, folding of and displacement from bases, managerial challenges like desertions, and political breakdown like splintering and feuds. Third, I use interview-based data to show that the popularly held notion of “drone blowback” – that drone strikes energize recruitment of targeted armed groups - doesn’t find empirical support. I explain these findings by introducing a new concept of Legibility and Speed-of-exploitation System, or L&S in short. L&S varies in the degree of legibility of the population where armed groups are based (legibility, in short) and the speed of exploitation of legibility gains (speed, in short). I argue that the period of the US Drone War which attained high levels of L&S (2008 to 2014) was very disruptive for the targeted groups. The theoretical position and empirical findings challenge the wisdom on importance of winning “hearts-and-minds” of civilians in counterterrorism/counterinsurgency. The findings also have important policy implications for how US policymakers are likely to approach the challenge of managing threats by Al-Qaeda and ISIS from weak states.
Speaker bio: Asfandyar Mir is a Social Science Predoctoral fellow at CISAC and a PhD Candidate in Political Science at the University of Chicago. His research focuses on effectiveness of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations. His research draws on quantitative and qualitative microdata collected through field work and archival sources. Some of his research is forthcoming in Security Studies. His commentary has been featured in the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage.
Asfandyar Mir is an affiliate with the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University. Previously he has held predoctoral and postdoctoral fellowships at the center. His research interests are in the international relations of South Asia, US counterterrorism policy, and political violence, with a regional focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan. His research has appeared in peer-reviewed journals of International Relations, such as International Security, International Studies Quarterly and Security Studies, and his commentary has appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, H-Diplo, Lawfare, Modern War Institute, Political Violence at a Glance, Politico, and the Washington Post.
Asfandyar received his PhD in political science from the University of Chicago and a masters and bachelors from Stanford University.
The Lee Shau Kee World Leaders Forum on “US and the Asia Pacific” was held on November 13th, 2017. This event that brought 250 participants to the Center also marked the 5th anniversary of the Stanford Center at Peking University’s (SCPKU) anniversary and 10th anniversary of the Stanford China Program. Stanford Political Science Professor and SCPKU Director Jean Oi welcomed the audience with remarks highlighting Stanford’s initiative to build China studies at the home campus with the creation of the China Program and in China with the construction of SCPKU -- Stanford’s “Bridge Across the Pacific.” Professor Michael McFaul, Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, opened the forum with a stimulating keynote address on “The Historical Origins and Contemporary Consequences of President Trump’s Worldview.” In his talk, Prof. McFaul examined the President’s views and characterized them as fitting within but standing on the extreme end of long-standing foreign policy traditions. Combining his scholarly expertise with his experience in the Obama administration, Prof. McFaul offered the audience a sharp, wide-ranging but balanced overview of the continuities between Obama’s and Trump’s policies and the stark difference in rhetoric between these two Presidents. He used dynamic representations of isolationists versus internationalists, and realists versus liberals to explain that foreign policy differences exist within political parties rather than between them. Prof. McFaul took the audience around the globe, with timely accounts of the continuities, the positive changes and the adverse changes in US foreign policy under President Trump in, for example, the Middle East, Europe and Asia. Overall, he argued that democratic institutions in the US are open to evolution and renewal; that the structures of American leadership are still robust; and pointed to different historical periods (as during the inter-war period in the 1930’s; the rise of communism in the 1950’s; the rise of the Soviet Union in the 1970’s and Japan’s rapid ascendance in the 1980’s) when pundits declared America’s demise only to be proven wrong. Prof. McFaul asserted that current “predictions of permanent American decline is premature.” Prof. McFaul, however, did point to North Korea as a major point of worry, which segued into the panel discussion that followed.
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Professor Michael McFaul, Director of Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies,
keynotes SCPKU's Lee Shau Kee World Leaders Forum.
Courtesy of Stanford University.
What will happen with North Korea was a focus of the lively high-level panel discussion chaired by Professor Jean C. Oi on “The US, China and Asia Pacific” with Karl Eikenberry, Former US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Director of US-Asia Security Initiative at Stanford; Kathleen Stephens, Former US Ambassador to the Republic of Korea and William J. Perry Fellow at Shorenstein APARC of Stanford; Thomas Fingar, Former chairman, National Intelligence Council; Former Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research; Shorenstein APARC Fellow; Yu Tiejun, Associate Professor and Vice President of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University; and Zhu Feng, Executive Director, China Center for Collaborative Studies of the South China Sea and Director, Institute of International Studies at Nanjing University.
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SCPKU World Leaders Forum panelists discuss future of US-Asia Pacific relations.
Courtesy of Stanford University
Prof. Fingar started the discussion on US-China relations, flatly rejecting the realist theory of conflict between rising and declining powers and the notion that “two tigers cannot get along.” He pointed out that interdependencies between the US and China have grown and that the US and China have more in common than ever before. Yet, with growing interdependence, chances for friction have also increased; thus, “having more issues,” he stated, “does not necessarily mean that the relationship is more fragile – perhaps the opposite [is true].” He also stated that China faces enormous challenges domestically and internationally, and that the US will be reacting to China rather than the other way around.
Amb. Stephens, Prof. Yu and Prof. Zhu all turned the discussion more squarely towards the intensifying North Korea missile crisis. The panelists all characterized this as a critical moment not only on the Korean peninsula but in all of Northeast Asia. Amb. Stephens stressed how important this is in the working relationship of the US and China as they strive to manage future crises and issues. While everyone found agreement on one common point – i.e., the implausible prospects of a “complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization” of North Korea -- each gave unique perspectives on what might happen on the Korean peninsula as the situation unfolds. Prof. Yu outlined three possible scenarios of (i) accepting North Korea as a nuclear power de facto; (ii) imposing increasingly draconian sanctions; and (iii) turning towards the military option against North Kore. But he did not express much optimism that any of these options would, in the end, provide good outcomes. Amb. Stephens, on the other hand, emphasized the strength and resilience of the US-ROK relationship stating “I wouldn’t underestimate [the US’] commitment to the ROK.” She also foresaw a future in which the US will conduct more military exercises, and install more anti-missile defense systems across Northeast Asia as a result of the North Korean threat – a prospect which, she surmised, the PRC would not welcome.
Prof. Zhu, on the other hand, offered a more optimistic perspective on the North Korean nuclear standoff by pointing to the increasing cooperation between the US and China. Asking the listeners to “please take the report that China is actively opposing North Korea seriously” he held out the hope that North Korea might return to the negotiating table once it saw that China was supporting the United States.
Amb. Eikenberry, as the final panelist to share his remarks, took the discussion to the broader Asia Pacific level and drew distinctions on “Asia Pacific” and “Indo Pacific,” as the latter description better reflects maritime flows, the geographical layout as well trade flows more accurately. He invited panelists to depict what would happen in different possible scenarios and outcomes relating to military crisis in the region. The panelists shared their views on action options involving sanctions and multilateral agreements, and agreed that countries should focus on achieving shared goals.