Dr. Janar Pekarev, a Stanford Global Digital Governance Fellow, will present his research exploring the impact of AI on military decision-making and the nuances of AI-driven command and control. His work uses simulated scenarios with AI feedback ranging from accurate to intentionally flawed. It measures decision accuracy, decision time, and user confidence to determine how varying AI feedback influences the quality and speed of decisions.

The research integrates a machine learning model and an override-rule module within an end-user interface. It operationalizes key principles of the laws of war—distinction, proportionality, and military necessity—through scenario simulations and a blend of qualitative and quantitative metrics. A stepwise experimental design enables a close examination of human-machine interaction dynamics, particularly how the transparency of AI reasoning affects human trust, decision-making biases, and ethical judgments under uncertainty. Though conceptual at this stage, the intent is to facilitate broad empirical validation and interdisciplinary collaboration, thereby augmenting our understanding of adaptive, transparent, and ethically grounded human-machine teaming in military operations.

The Global Digital Governance Fellows program is a joint initiative with Stanford Libraries, Vabamu, and Estonia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

About the Author

Dr. Janar Pekarev is a Global Digital Governance Fellow in the Program in Geopolitics, Technology, and Governance at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. Janar holds the rank of Major with more than 20 years in the Estonian military. He is a Fellow at the Estonian Military Academy and a member of multiple NATO STO research groups, including SAS-MSG-ET-FV (Emerging and Disruptive Technology) and NATO STO SAS-160 (Ethical, Legal, and Moral Impacts of Novel Technologies on NATO’s Operational Advantage), as well as an Estonian Ministry of Defence project on cognitive warfare against a superior adversary. Holding a PhD in Sociology and a BA in Law from the University of Tartu, he adopts an interdisciplinary approach that integrates law, military science and technology, and sociology. His research focuses on human-machine teaming within the military domain, with particular emphasis on AI weaponization and the moral programming of the use of force. He has contributed to the field through numerous publications in journals and presentations at academic conferences.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

Several studies have underscored the significance of familiarity and collegiality in shaping judicial behaviors in U.S. federal courts. However, the distinct features of the U.S. judicial system might not always offer the most appropriate framework for examining cognitive biases. This research utilizes an extensive dataset of 84,335 decisions from Taiwanese appellate courts on civil cases to explore the impact of familiarity within a career judge system. Contrary to the U.S., in Taiwan, lower court judges are temporarily promoted to appellate courts for three years, after which they return to their district courts for further tenure. By examining the judicial actions during their initial and subsequent promotions, and contrasting these with the practices of permanent appellate judges, Dr. Chang and his associates identify similar biases among Taiwanese judges as those previously reported in the literature. The large and diverse nature of their dataset, along with the random allocation of court cases in Taiwan, strengthens the claim that judicial biases are widespread and consistent across various legal systems. Moreover, Dr. Chang and his associates specify two distinct sources of familiarity, differentiating them clearly from collegiality, thus enriching the understanding of the intricate factors that influence judicial decision-making.

Speaker:

Yun-chien Chang is the Jack G. Clarke Professor in East Asian Law at Cornell Law School and Director of the Clarke Program in East Asian Law & Culture. Prior to joining Cornell, he was a Research Professor at the Institutum Iurisprudentiae, Academia Sinica in Taiwan. Prof. Chang is the (co-)author or (co-)editor of 20 books and has published over 160 journal articles and book chapters. He is a co-editor of the Journal of Empirical Legal Studies and serves as an Associate Reporter for the Restatement of the Law Fourth, Property. He is President Emeritus of the Asian Law and Economics Association and a director of the Society for Empirical Legal Studies. His current research interests include the economic, empirical, and comparative analysis of private law—particularly property law—as well as empirical studies of judicial systems. Prof. Chang holds J.S.D. from New York University School of Law and earned his LL.B. and LL.M. from National Taiwan University. He is also a member of the Taiwan bar.

About the event: How can states use military force to achieve their political aims without triggering a catastrophic nuclear war? How has China coped with this dilemma? While other nuclear-armed countries have preferred the traditional options of threatening to use nuclear weapons or fielding capabilities for decisive conventional military victories, China has instead chosen to rely on information-age weapons—offensive cyber capabilities, counterspace capabilities, and precision conventional missiles—to coerce its adversaries. In Under the Nuclear Shadow: China’s Information-Age Weapons in International Security (Princeton University Press, 2025) Fiona Cunningham explains this distinctive aspect of China’s post–Cold War deterrence strategy using an original theory of strategic substitution. When crises with adversaries created leverage deficits that highlighted the inadequacy of China’s existing military capabilities, China pursued information-age weapons that promised to provide coercive leverage against adversaries more quickly and credibly than the traditional options adopted by other nuclear-armed states. Drawing on hundreds of original Chinese-language sources and interviews with experts in China, the book provides new insights into the information-age technologies that are reshaping how states gain coercive leverage.

About the speaker: Fiona Cunningham is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. Her research interests lie at the intersection of technology and conflict, with a focus on China. Fiona’s first book Under the Nuclear Shadow: China’s Information-Age Weapons in International Security (Princeton University Press, 2025) examines China’s distinctive approach to the dilemma of coercing an adversary under the shadow of nuclear war, which relies on substitutes for nuclear threats. Her research has been published in International Security, Security Studies, Journal of Strategic Studies, The Texas National Security Review, and The Washington Quarterly.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

No filming or recording without express permission from speaker.

Registration for this event is closed.

About the event: The foundations of American power are eroding due to a failure to adapt to a new era in which knowledge and technological innovation are the primary sources of national strength. Traditional measures of power—military might, natural resources, and economic scale—are increasingly insufficient. Instead, intangible assets such as education, research capacity, and control over emerging technologies determine long-term geopolitical influence. The United States is losing ground in these areas, with declining K–12 educational outcomes, reduced federal investment in basic research, outdated immigration policies, and growing reliance on private-sector actors whose interests may diverge from national objectives. Meanwhile, global competitors—particularly China—are rapidly expanding their innovation capacity. The U.S. must look toward a strategic shift in policy to enhance knowledge power through educational reform, immigration modernization, increased public research funding, and improved coordination between government, academia, and industry.

About the speaker: Amy Zegart is the Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, professor of political science by courtesy at Stanford University, and a contributing writer at The Atlantic. She is also a senior fellow at Stanford’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI) and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). Zegart is an internationally recognized expert in U.S. intelligence, emerging technologies, and global political risk management. In addition to her research and teaching, Zegart led Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), founded the Stanford Cyber Policy Program, and served as chief academic officer of the Hoover Institution. At Hoover, Zegart currently serves as the Director of the Robert and Marion Oster National Security Affairs fellows program and as Director of the Technology Policy Accelerator, which produces the annual Stanford Emerging Technology Review. Before coming to Stanford, she was professor of public policy at the University of California, Los Angeles, and a McKinsey & Company consultant. Zegart has served on the National Security Council staff and as a presidential campaign foreign policy advisor. She frequently advises senior U.S. officials on intelligence and emerging technology matters. She is the author of five books, including the bestseller Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence; Political Risk: How Businesses and Organizations Can Anticipate Global Insecurity, co-authored with Condoleezza Rice; and Spying Blind: The CIA, the FBI, and the Origins of 9/11. Zegart holds a bachelor’s degree in East Asian studies from Harvard University and a doctorate in political science from Stanford University. She serves on the boards of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions and the Capital Group. Zegart is based in Stanford, CA.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

No filming or recording without express permission from speaker.

Young people in Japan are considerably underrepresented in the country’s political institutions, leaving decision-making largely in the hands of older politicians. This age bias may have profound consequences for welfare policies in Japan, which faces a declining birth rate and a rapidly aging population. In this talk, Professor McClean will examine why younger politicians are so rare in countries like Japan and demonstrate how this shortage shapes both democracy and social policy.

This event is part of APARC's Contemporary Asia Seminar Series.

Charles McClean is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Yale University. He conducts research in comparative politics with a focus on the politics of age and Japan. His work has been published in the British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, Nature Medicine, and other venues in political science and public policy. His research has also been featured in outlets such as the Asahi Shimbun, Nikkei Shimbun, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post.

Limited number of lunches available for registered guests on day of event.

About the event: The advent of generative artificial intelligence and associated innovation in the broader AI domain has the potential to create transformative opportunities globally, automating routine tasks and shortening the timeline to understand and potentially solve complex problems while permitting humans to focus on challenges that require human creativity and problem-solving. There is no doubt, likewise, that the broad adoption and use of AI will result in some significant shifts in the workforce and could enhance challenges in domains like cybersecurity, misinformation and disinformation, and others. Additionally, there are significant questions about how to achieve broad adoption given concerns raised by many about trust, safety, and security in this domain. The key question facing policymakers, then, is what they ought to do in the fairly early days of the AI revolution, and whether the adoption of broad-based AI regulatory frameworks like those adopted by the European Union is the right initial step.

This presentation will evaluate and challenge the claim that broad-based regulation is the correct initial approach and even long-term approach to this rapidly expanding and increasingly publicly accessible domain of innovation.  The presentation will evaluate the innovation environments in jurisdictions where regulatory action is the initial move versus those that take a more limited approach during the lifecycle of rapid innovation. Specifically, the presentation will compare and contrast the regulatory approaches taken in the United States and the EU historically in the technology domain and seek to assess their impact on innovation or the relative lack thereof in those jurisdictions while drawing out some insights for policymakers in the AI domain.

The presentation will also assess whether key issues raised in the AI domain might be addressed through private sector action alone--which there is strong reason to believe they can--and, if policymakers nonetheless determine that some government action is needed, what approaches to such action can help ensure that broad innovation continues to be incentivized effectively.   The presentation will close on a set of recommendations for policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic—and around the globe—for expanding and protecting innovation in this critical domain while also ensuring that legitimate concerns are accounted for and addressed, as well as identifying issues for further research and evaluation.

About the speaker: Jamil N. Jaffer is the Founder and Executive Director of the National Security Institute at George Mason University’s Antonin Scalia Law School, where he also teaches national security law, cybersecurity, and counterterrorism. He is a Venture Partner at Paladin Capital and serves on multiple corporate and advisory boards in cybersecurity, technology, and national security.

Previously, Jamil held leadership roles at IronNet Cybersecurity, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and the House Intelligence Committee. He served in the Bush Administration as an Associate Counsel to the President and at the Justice Department’s National Security Division. Jamil holds degrees from UCLA, the University of Chicago Law School, and the Naval War College.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

No filming or recording without express permission from speaker.

About the event: Conflicts and crises between nations play out in cyberspace. For many years, policy practitioners have proposed a parallel between nuclear deterrence and cyber deterrence. Over the last decade, practical lessons learned from cyber offenses and defense across policy and operations contradict any parallel to nuclear deterrence theory. Indeed, it is better to think of offensive cyber attacks as a new form of warfare, playing out across offense and defense. AI is about to supercharge both sides of this equation through everything from identifying vulnerabilities and exploits to managing cyber operations. This talk will discuss the lessons learned across offense and defense, based on the lecturer’s experiences in the policy and operational arenas at the White House’s National Security Council, NSA and USCC.

The Payne Lectureship is named for Frank E. Payne and Arthur W. Payne, brothers who gained an appreciation for global problems through their international business operations. Their descendants endowed the annual lecture series at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies in order to raise public understanding of the complex policy issues facing the global community today and to increase support for informed international cooperation.

The Payne Distinguished Lecturer is chosen for his or her international reputation as a leader, with an emphasis on visionary thinking; a broad, practical grasp of a given field; and the capacity to clearly articulate an important perspective on the global community and its challenges.

About the speaker: Anne Neuberger is an internationally recognized expert in cyber warfare and cybersecurity, risk and emerging technologies. She served as Deputy National Security Advisor for Cyber and Emerging Technologies in the Biden Administration, coordinating national policy, and led NSA’s intelligence operations as well as its cybersecurity mission, in addition to serving as NSA’s Chief Risk Officer. She also initiated and led the successful effort to convene 71 countries to combat trans-national cyber threats like ransomware, and money laundering via cryptocurrencies. Prior to her time in government (which included a stint at the Pentagon and Navy), Ms. Neuberger held several positions related to technology and operations at a large financial services firm.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

No filming or recording without express permission from speaker.

This talk will be in Chinese (Mandarin).

In this talk, Professor Ge Zhaoguang (葛兆光) will take on fundamental questions on the evolution of “China” as a historical entity (“何谓中国”). His talk will problematize the concept of “China”, discuss issues related to Chinese identity and the “inner” and “outer” historical changes over time. These issues are examined in the context of China’s distinct transformation from a traditional dynasty into a modern state. Professor Ge will provide his reflections of understanding China from a comparative perspective.

This event is free and open to the public. Please RSVP here.

About the Speaker
 

Professor Ge Zhaoguang is a University Distinguished Professor of Fudan University in Shanghai, China. An eminent historian and public intellectual, he has published influential works in the areas of social thoughts, intellectual history, global history, and histography of China and Asia Studies. Many of His works are translated into English, including What Is China?: Territory, Ethnicity, Culture, and History (Harvard University Press, 2018); An Intellectual History of China (two volumes) (Brill, 2014, 2018). He is the recipient of many honors, including first “Princeton Global Scholar (2009), “Asia and Pacific Award” (2014) in Japan, “Paju Book Award” (2014) in South Korea, and HongKong Book Award (2015).

This talk is co-sponsored by Center for East Asian Studies (CEAS), the Department of East Asian Language and Civilization (EALC) and Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI).