Abstract:

Why do some former authoritarian elites face punishment for their misdeeds after democratic transition whereas others remain untouched or even end up being re-elected to political office, re-appointed in government, or on the boards of state-owned or major private enterprises? Drawing on a new dataset on the upper echelon of outgoing authoritarian elites in countries across Latin America over the last century, this project investigates for the first time why new democracies punish selected former authoritarian elites whereas others elide punishment entirely and even flourish under democracy.

Speaker Bio:

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Michael Albertus is the 2015-16 W. Glenn Campbell and Rita Ricardo-Campbell National Fellow and the William C. Bark National Fellow. He is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago. His main research focus is on the political conditions under which governments implement egalitarian reforms.

His first book, Autocracy and Redistribution: The Politics of Land Reform, published by Cambridge University Press, examines why and when land reform programs are implemented. His second book project, Flawed by Design: Authoritarian Legacies Under Democracy, explores the role of outgoing authoritarian elite-designed institutions on democratic functioning. Other research interests include political regime transitions and stability, politics under dictatorship, clientelism, and civil conflict. Albertus' work has been published in the British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, the Journal of Conflict Resolution, Economics & Politics, Comparative Politics, World Development, International Studies Quarterly, and Latin American Research Review.

**This event is co-sponsored with CREES**

Abstract:

Twenty five years have passed since the dissolution of the Soviet Union (the USSR), when the fifteen new independent states of Eurasia started the process of regime transition and state- and nation-building. All of the former Soviet republics have the same departure point – the collapse of the USSR in 1991. Twenty five years later, in 2016, there is an enormous variation in the outcomes of regime transition across post-Soviet Eurasia: from autocracies (e.g., Belarus) to democracies (Baltic states). Thus, this experience of post-Soviet Eurasian states requires development of new theoretical approaches that would allow for better understanding of rapid dynamics in this part of the world and of the phenomenon of external dimension of regime transition in general.

Speaker Bio:

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Anastassia V. Obydenkova holds a Ph.D. in Political and Social Science from the European University Institute (2006, Florence, Italy), M.A. from Central European University (Budapest, Hungary), and a Summa Cum Laude Diploma in Political Science and International Relations from Moscow Lomonosov State University; Diploma Cum Laude in Foreign Languages from the Department of Foreign Languages of the Moscow State University. Her main research interests are autocracies, democratization and regime transition, federalism, decentralization, sub-national political regimes, international organizations, and area studies (former Soviet States of Eurasia).

Abstract:

The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project is a large-scale data collection effort focused on the construction of a wide-ranging database different understandings of what democracy is (e.g., electoral democracy, liberal democracy, deliberative democracy, and egalitarian democracy). The V-Dem dataset is highly disaggregated (350 specific indicators), and it extends back to 1900 and covers virtually all sovereign and semi-sovereign polities of the world. In the talk, Skaaning will present the different features of the dataset, including the use of expert surveys, the employment of a sophisticated measurement model to take different levels of reliability and bias into account, and the challenge of establishing cross-country equivalence in the scores. The V-Dem dataset will be compared with the well-known democracy measures provided by Freedom House and Polity, and the analytical leverage will be illustrated with a few examples from ongoing research.

Speaker Bio:

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Abstract:

Since the early 1990s, efforts to promote democracy throughout the world have proliferated, yet as many scholars and policy-makers lament, the effects of these democracy promotion programs are poorly understood. This article presents a randomized field experiment of a “real” democracy promotion program undertaken by a prominent international nongovernmental organization in Cambodia. We show that exposure to multi-party town hall meetings has positive effects on citizen knowledge about politics, attitudes towards democracy, and reported political behavior, but has null effects on citizen confidence in the political process. Several months after each intervention, qualitative evidence suggests that problem issues in treatment villages were more likely to be addressed than in control villages. Additionally, results from an election more than a year after the final intervention suggest longer term changes in voting behavior.

Speaker Bio:

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Her first book, The Pseudo-Democrat's Dilemma: Why Election Observation Became an International Norm, was published by Cornell University Press in 2011, and has received the Chadwick F. Alger Prize for the best book on the subject of international organization and multilateralism, the best book award from the Comparative Democratization section of the American Political Science Association, and Yale’s 2012 Gustav Ranis International Book Prize. Her articles have appeared in the American Journal of Political Science, the ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences, the British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, International Organization, The Journal of Politics, Perspectives on Politics, Political Analysis, and World Politics. She is the Executive Director of the EGAP (Evidence in Governance and Politics) research network.

Abstract:

The robots are coming, but whether they will be working on behalf of society or a small cadre of the super-rich is very much in doubt. Driverless cars, robotic helpers, and intelligent agents that promote our interests have the potential to usher in a new age of affluence and leisure — but the transition may be protracted and brutal unless we address the two great scourges of the modern developed world: volatile labor markets and income inequality. Innovative, free-market adjustments to our economic system and social policies are likely to be necessary to avoid an extended period of social turmoil.

Speaker Bio:

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Kaplan is the co-founder of four Silicon Valley startups, two of which became publicly traded companies. As an inventor and entrepreneur, Kaplan was a key contributor to the creation of numerous familiar technologies including tablet computers, smart phones, online auctions, and social computer games.

Kaplan holds an MSE and PhD in Computer and Information Science, specializing in Artificial Intelligence, from the University of Pennsylvania, and a BA in History and Philosophy of Science from the University of Chicago.

Please note: All research in progress seminars are off-the-record. Any information about methodology and/or results are embargoed until publication.

Abstract:

The Norwegian universal health care system is built on the fundamental principle of equal access to high quality health services regardless of socioeconomic status, ethnicity and geographical residence. Norway (approx. 5 Million people) is recognized for being an overall top performer among OECD countries on various health measures. However, the aging population has led to substantial cost increases as well as long waiting times for elective surgery, due to insufficient ability of hospitals to absorb patient inflows. These were some of the main motivations for Norway’s Hospital Reform and the implementation of the Free Choice System in the early years following the millennium. The responsibility for financing and providing specialized health services was transferred to four Regional Health Authorities (Central State), which in turn were given the right to contract (usually by tendering competition) with Private For-Profit Hospitals (PFPs). In the Free Choice System, patients holding a referral from their general practitioner (GP) can choose any hospital, both PFPs and Non-Profit Hospitals, for the same out of pocket cost. We have previously found that PFPs deliver the same procedures at a substantially lower cost (down to 50.6% of the National DRG-price). However, due to relatively large variations in waiting times between PFPs and Non-Profit Hospitals, we hypothesized that some groups may be better at navigating in this new system and achieve lower waiting times. We were particularly interested in whether the reform, aimed to contain costs and reduce waiting time for elective surgery, has compromised the fundamental principle equal access to care. Patients who underwent day surgery during the period 2009 – 2014 were identified through the Norwegian Patient Register and linked with socioeconomic data using the Norwegian Tax Register and the Norwegian Education Register. Preliminary findings suggest that otherwise similar younger patients, poorer patients, and those with more comorbidities are less likely to use PFPs, using Non-profit Hospitals instead. Higher educated patients go more frequently to PFPs and the difference between lower educated and higher educated patients is increasing with longer waiting times. We also find an overall increasing secular trend to use PFPs.

BIO:

Geir H. Holom, MD, is a Visiting Scholar at Stanford School of Medicine (CHP/PCOR) from the University of Oslo. His research focuses on the expansion of private for-profit hospitals in the Nordic countries and its effect on prices, quality of care and selection of patients. He received a BSc in Economics and Business Administration from the Norwegian School of Economics and an MD from the University of Bergen. While in medical school, he conducted research on patients diagnosed with head and neck cancer who underwent head and neck reconstruction using microsurgery. Since receiving his MD, he has worked as a physician in both primary care and specialized health services. Prior to entering the field of medicine, he worked in the business and finance sector. Dr. Holom volunteers for the Children's Program at Oslo University Hospital.

Please note: All research in progress seminars are off-the-record. Any information about methodology and/or results are embargoed until publication.

Abstract

The United Nations endorses universal health coverage (UHC) as part of the Sustainable Development Goals as a mechanism to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all,” yet evidence about the impact of coverage on health in lower- and middle-income countries is limited. For example, if UHC improves survival then China’s dramatic expansion of health insurance coverage in rural areas since 2003 would have been expected to reduce mortality, especially among the rural poor; yet such impacts have not been found in research to date. 

We study whether insurance expansion played a causal role in adult mortality reductions in rural China. Our analysis uses Disease Surveillance Point (DSP) system data on age-standardized death rates per 1,000 population from 72 rural counties. We utilize differences across counties in the timing of the introduction of NCMS between 2004 and 2012 to show that NCMS reduced ischaemic heart disease mortality among elderly rural Chinese, with the most pronounced effects among men.

In collaboration with Maigeng Zhou, Shiwei Liu, Kate Bundorf, Sen Zhou

Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is a well-embraced policy goal in the 21th century, which aims to ensure financial risk protection while assuring access to quality care.  However, up to this date, out-of-pocket (OOP) payment remains the principal means of financing health care throughout much of Asia, which leaves people financially unprotected in the face of illness.  High OOP payment at point of service is likely to either make people become medically impoverished after paying for health care, or force people to forgo treatment needed, which is detrimental to one’s health.   This presentation is based on empirical results derived from EQUITAP  (Equity in Asia-Pacific Health Systems) Project II on catastrophic payment that aims to estimate the magnitude and distribution of OOP payments for health care in 23 countries and territories in the Asia-Pacific Region in 2007.  We also draw comparisons to the results in 2000 as changes arise due to various reforms implemented since 2000.

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Her research interests are in assessing the impact of the NHI program on health care markets and household consumption patterns, and comparative health systems in the Asia-Pacific region with a focus on equity performance.  She is a long-time and active member of the Equitap (Equity in Asia-Pacific Health Systems) research network.  Professor Lu has also been appointed to serve on several advisory boards to the Taiwan Ministry of Health and Welfare and National Health Insurance Administration, Ministry of Science and Technology.

She received the Minister Wang Jin Naw Memorial Award for Best Paper in Health Care Management in 2002 and was the recipient of the IBM Faculty Award in 2009.

- Please note that this is a joint CISAC/Science seminar -

Join Chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) Greg Treverton for a discussion on the NIC's work and how it connects to U.S. policy and wider global forecasting, along with a preview of the NIC's upcoming Global Trends report. 

About the Speaker: Dr. Treverton started his duties as Chairman of the National Intelligence Council on September 8, 2014. Prior to his selection, Treverton held several leadership positions at RAND Corporation, including director of the RAND Center for Global Risk and Security, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center, and associate dean of the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His work at RAND examined terrorism, intelligence and law enforcement, as well as new forms of public–private partnership. 

Treverton has served in government for the first Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, handling Europe for the National Security Council and later, as vice chair of the National Intelligence Council (1993–1995), overseeing the writing of America's National Intelligence Estimates. 

His RAND publications on intelligence include: “Reorganizing U.S. Domestic Intelligence: Assessing the Options” (2008), “Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis” (with C. Bryan Gabbard, 2008) and “The Next Steps in Reshaping Intelligence” (2005). Two books, Intelligence for an Age of Terror and Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information, were published by Cambridge University Press in 2009 and 2001, respectively. 

Treverton holds an A.B. summa cum laude from Princeton University and an M.P.P. and Ph.D. in economics and politics from Harvard University.