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Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is a well-embraced policy goal in the 21th century, which aims to ensure financial risk protection while assuring access to quality care.  However, up to this date, out-of-pocket (OOP) payment remains the principal means of financing health care throughout much of Asia, which leaves people financially unprotected in the face of illness.  High OOP payment at point of service is likely to either make people become medically impoverished after paying for health care, or force people to forgo treatment needed, which is detrimental to one’s health.   This presentation is based on empirical results derived from EQUITAP  (Equity in Asia-Pacific Health Systems) Project II on catastrophic payment that aims to estimate the magnitude and distribution of OOP payments for health care in 23 countries and territories in the Asia-Pacific Region in 2007.  We also draw comparisons to the results in 2000 as changes arise due to various reforms implemented since 2000.

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Jui-fen Rachel Lu, is the Fulbright Visiting Scholar at the Center for East Asian Studies, Stanford University, and Professor in the Graduate Institute of Business and Management and Department of Health Care Management, College of Management, at Chang Gung University in Taiwan, where she teaches comparative health systems, health economics, and health care financing and has served as department chair (2000-2004), Associate Dean (2009-2010) and Dean of the College of Management (2010-2013).  She earned her B.S. from National Taiwan University, and her M.S. and Sc.D. from Harvard University, and she was also a Takemi Fellow at Harvard (2004-2005) and is an Honorary Professor at Hong Kong University (2007-2017). She cofounded the Taiwan Society of Health Economics (TaiSHE) in 2008 and is currently the President of TaiSHE (2014-2017).  Professor Lu also serves as a board director for the International Health Economics Association (iHEA) (2016) and a member of the Arrow Award Committee for iHEA (2014-2016).

Her research interests are in assessing the impact of the NHI program on health care markets and household consumption patterns, and comparative health systems in the Asia-Pacific region with a focus on equity performance.  She is a long-time and active member of the Equitap (Equity in Asia-Pacific Health Systems) research network.  Professor Lu has also been appointed to serve on several advisory boards to the Taiwan Ministry of Health and Welfare and National Health Insurance Administration, Ministry of Science and Technology.

She received the Minister Wang Jin Naw Memorial Award for Best Paper in Health Care Management in 2002 and was the recipient of the IBM Faculty Award in 2009.

Jui-fen Rachel Lu, Sc.D. Fulbright Visiting Scholar, Center for East Asian Studies, Stanford University
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- Please note that this is a joint CISAC/Science seminar -

Join Chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) Greg Treverton for a discussion on the NIC's work and how it connects to U.S. policy and wider global forecasting, along with a preview of the NIC's upcoming Global Trends report. 

About the Speaker: Dr. Treverton started his duties as Chairman of the National Intelligence Council on September 8, 2014. Prior to his selection, Treverton held several leadership positions at RAND Corporation, including director of the RAND Center for Global Risk and Security, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center, and associate dean of the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His work at RAND examined terrorism, intelligence and law enforcement, as well as new forms of public–private partnership. 

Treverton has served in government for the first Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, handling Europe for the National Security Council and later, as vice chair of the National Intelligence Council (1993–1995), overseeing the writing of America's National Intelligence Estimates. 

His RAND publications on intelligence include: “Reorganizing U.S. Domestic Intelligence: Assessing the Options” (2008), “Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis” (with C. Bryan Gabbard, 2008) and “The Next Steps in Reshaping Intelligence” (2005). Two books, Intelligence for an Age of Terror and Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information, were published by Cambridge University Press in 2009 and 2001, respectively. 

Treverton holds an A.B. summa cum laude from Princeton University and an M.P.P. and Ph.D. in economics and politics from Harvard University. 

Gregory Treverton Chairman National Intelligence Council
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Abstract:

One of the key objectives of introducing a compulsory health insurance is to provide citizens, regardless of socioeconomic status, with financial risk protection against unexpected catastrophic expenditures in the face of illness.  South Korea and Taiwan achieved universal health coverage (UHC) through mandatory social insurance schemes in 1989 and 1995, respectively.  Despite both countries' efforts to achieve the goal of financial risk protection for more than two decades, past research has demonstrated that household out-of-pocket (OOP) payment still accounts for more than one-third of total health expenditures in both countries.  When OOP payment represents a significant share of financial sources for health care, one should be particularly concerned about the distribution of such payments, in particular, catastrophic health expenditures, across households of differing economic levels.  This talk sets out to examine the change in the incidence and distribution of catastrophic health expenditures before and after the introduction of the National Health Insurance programs in South Korea and Taiwan.

 

Given similarity in the health and National Health Insurance (NHI) system characteristics observed in South Korea and Taiwan, substantial variation in the distribution of catastrophic payment among households was noted. The rich are more likely to incur catastrophic payment in South Korea, but the opposite trend is noted in Taiwan.  Further assessment on the impact of universal health coverage (UHC) on reducing catastrophic headcount (defined as the proportion of households incurring catastrophic health payment) is observed in Taiwan, but not in South Korea.  We found that when South Korea introduced the NHI program with a limited benefit package and high copayment, it produced little effect (if not none) in reducing financial burden in terms of proportion of catastrophic headcount. On the contrary, the impact of universal health coverage on catastrophic headcount ranged from -1.82% to -4.08% for Taiwan, due to the provision of a rather comprehensive benefit package with modest copayment. While UHC is a well-lauded policy goal and may be a magic word for many countries striving for the achievement, it is definitely not a panacea to resolve the incidence of catastrophic payment and potential medical impoverishment.  To provide sufficient financial protection against unexpected medical expenses, the design of the benefit coverage and risk sharing mechanism is key to the success of effectively achieving UHC. 

 

Bio

Jui-fen Rachel Lu, Sc.D., is the Fulbright Visiting Scholar at Center for East Asian Studies, Stanford University, and a Professor at Chang Gung University (CGU) in Taiwan, where she teaches comparative health systems, health economics, and health care financing and has served as department chair (2000-2004), Associate Dean (2009-2010) and Dean of College of Management (2010-2013).  She earned her B.S. from National Taiwan University, and her M.S. and Sc.D. from Harvard University, and she was also a Takemi Fellow at Harvard (2004-2005).  Prof. Lu is currently the President of Taiwan Society of Health Economics (TaiSHE) and an Honorary Professor at Hong Kong University (2007-2017).  Dr. Lu was also the recipient of IBM Faculty Award in 2009.   

 

Her research focuses on 1) the equity issues of the health care system; 2) impact of the NHI program on health care market and household consumption patterns; 3) comparative health systems in Asia-Pacific region.  She is a long-time and active member of Equitap (Equity in Asia-Pacific Health Systems) research network and was the coordinator for the catastrophic payment component of Equitap II research project which involved 21 country teams and was jointly funded by IDRC, AusAID, and ADB.  Professor Lu has also been appointed to serve as a member on various government committees dealing with health care issues in Taiwan.  

Okimoto Conference Room, Encina Hall 3rd Floor, East Wing

Rachel Jui-fen Lu Visiting Scholar, Center for East Asian Studies Stanford University
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The three key countries in Northeast Asia are in different economic stages: China is developing, Korea is already developed, and Japan is in a post-development stage. Japan’s early modernization, which encompassed economic, social, and political reforms, raised the country to a position of Asian leadership for a century, up to the 1980s. Korea copied the Japanese model beginning in the 1960s, and China began its own serious economic reforms in the early 1980s. By the 2000s, Korea had surpassed Japan in some economic sectors, and China’s economy, by dint of its scale, now threatens to overwhelm its neighbors’. At the same time, all three societies share deep roots in Chinese civilization and Confucian culture. Yet, as modernity and globalization increasingly affect all of Asia, that traditional culture is gradually being modified. In the process of these economic and cultural changes, three new and different strategic cultures and national personalities are emerging. Asia scholar and author Katy Oh will examine the changes among the countries of Northeast Asia and how they are affecting their relationships with one another.

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Dr. Kongdan (Katy) Oh Hassig is a Senior Asian Scholar at the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA).  She was formerly a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Bookings Institution and a member of the political science department of the RAND Corporation and has taught courses at a number of universities. She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the board of directors of the United States Committee of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific, and the co-founder and former co-director of The Korea Club of Washington, D.C. She is the co-author of North Korea through the Looking Glass (2000) and The Hidden People of North Korea (2009), and is currently working on a new book on China, Japan and Korea. She received a BA from Sogang University and an MA from Seoul National University in Korea, and an MA and a PhD in Asian Studies from the University of California, Berkeley.

This public event is made possible through the generous support of the Koret Foundation.
 

Kongdan Oh Hassig <i>Senior Asian Scholar</i>, Institute for Defense Analyses
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Abstract: Various regions of the world struggle to properly manage their freshwater resources in a sustainable manner. Even a greater number of regions are vulnerable to supply disruptions that can last for a year or more.  This talk will provide a global overview of water supply vulnerability with respect to demand, endowment, institutions, and infrastructure.  Examples of regional hydroeconomic models to evaluate potential management policies will be discussed with a focus on our approach to the challenges of coupling human-natural systems.  

About the Speaker: Steven Gorelick is the Cyrus F. Tolman Professor in the School of Earth, Energy, and Environmental Sciences and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment. At Stanford since 1988, he directs the Global Freshwater Initiative, which employs an interdisciplinary approach to analyzing water-supply vulnerability in developing nations. Past and current projects include those in Mexico, India, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Jordan. Much of his work involves development of hydrologic-economic models to evaluate the likely effectiveness of policy instruments such as taxes, quotas, and regulations. Projects also have evaluated the viability of an agricultural water rental market and alternatives to enhance food security. He has over 140 publications in 22 different science and engineering journals (including Science, Nature, and PNAS), and three commercialized patents. His 2010 book, Oil Panic and the Global Crisis, debated the notion of imminent global oil depletion. He is a member of the US National Academy of Engineering (NAE), and he has received Guggenheim and Fulbright fellowships. 

Steven Gorelick Cyrus F. Tolman Professor, Department of Earth System Science Dept. of Earth System Science Stanford University
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Please note the new time: 5:30 p.m. - 7:00 p.m.

The new social media—especially Weibo and Weixin—has profoundly changed the landscape of Chinese society in recent years. Drawing on personal observations and a sociological perspective, I highlight the key features of the new social media, the public space they have created and altered, the huge social divides they have revealed, and the challenges and implications they present for China’s political future. These issues are illustrated through a series of episodes in Weibo and Weixin in recent years.


Xueguang ZHOU is the Kwoh-Ting Li Professor in Economic Development, a professor of sociology and a senior fellow at Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. His main area of research is institutional changes in contemporary Chinese society, Chinese organizations and management, the Chinese bureaucracy, and governance in China.

 

Professor Zhou currently conducts research on the rise of the bureaucratic state in China. He works with students and colleagues to conduct participatory observations of government behaviors in policy implementation, bureaucratic bargaining, and incentive designs. He examines patterns of personnel flow among government offices to understand intra-organizational relationships in the Chinese bureaucracy. He also studies the historical origins of the Chinese bureaucracy.


 

This event is off the record.

Xueguang Zhou Stanford University
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Abstract: On 13 February 2016, in a widely-reported interview for the BBC, Ashton Carter, the US Secretary of Defense, made clear that the US Government supported the maintenance and renewal of Britain’s strategic nuclear deterrent force of Trident submarines.  According to Carter, Trident enabled Britain to ‘continue to play that outsized role on the world stage that it does because of its moral standing and its historical standing.’  However, during the early 1960s, attitudes in Washington to the UK’s independent nuclear capabilities were altogether different.  This paper will begin with a re-examination of Robert McNamara’s famous address at Ann Arbor in June 1962 when he openly criticised the existence of independent allied nuclear forces.  Using new evidence, it will chart the background to the speech, the reception it was accorded, and how it helped to intensify tensions in Anglo-American relations when the Skybolt missile system was cancelled by the US at the end of the same year.  The paper will also show how by the end of the Johnson administration, and the tenure of McNamara’s period as Secretary of Defense, the US had become reconciled to the continued existence of the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent and even begun to take steps to assist with its improvement.  

About the Speaker: Matthew Jones is Professor of International History, London School of Economics and Political Science. After receiving his DPhil from St Antony's College, Oxford, he was appointed to a Lectureship in the History Department at Royal Holloway, University of London in 1994, and subsequently promoted to Reader in International History before moving to the University of Nottingham in 2004, and then to the LSE in 2013.  His interests span post-war British and US foreign policy, nuclear history, and the histories of empire and decolonization in South East Asia.  His books include Britain, the United States and the Mediterranean War, 1942-44 (Macmillan, 1996), Conflict and Confrontation in South East Asia, 1961-1965: Britain, the United States, Indonesia, and the Creation of Malaysia (Cambridge University Press, 2002), and After Hiroshima: The United States, Race, and Nuclear Weapons in Asia, 1945-1965, (CUP, 2010).   In 2008, Jones was commissioned by the Cabinet Office to write a two-volume official history of the UK strategic nuclear deterrent, covering the period between 1945 and 1982, the first volume of which has now been completed.   

Matthew Jones Professor of International History Speaker London School of Economics and Political Science
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Abstract

After having witnessed the beginning of the Arab Spring in December 2010, and the ouster of former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011, Tunisia went through a period of intense political turbulence, including a rapid succession of governments and a paralyzing political gridlock in the summer of 2013. The Tunisian national dialogue quartet, which represented the major stakeholders in civil society and is the recipient of the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize, paved the way for a technocratic government that helped bring the country’s democratic transition back on track. After discussing the conditions that led to these developments, this presentation will focus on how the technocratic government managed the challenges of organizing the country’s first fully democratic presidential and legislative elections, re-establishing security, and restoring economic fundamentals. Finally, the presentation will discuss the prospects for democratic and economic development in Tunisia, one year after the appointment of the government that resulted from the 2014 elections.

 

Speaker Bio

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Kamel Ben Naceur is the Director for Sustainability, Technology, and Outlooks at the International Energy Agency and previously served as Minister of Industry, Energy and Mines of Tunisia in a government that was tasked in 2014 with leading the country’s first fully democratic elections and resorting its economic fundamentals. He has more than thirty-four years of experience and knowledge in the energy and industry sectors around the world in both public and private service. Mr. Ben Naceur served in various leading positions at the energy multinational Schlumberger, including Chief Economist in Paris, President of the Schlumberger technology organization in Rio de Janeiro, and Senior Advisor and Vice President for technology. He has served on several boards of international businesses and organizations, and is the co-author of thirteen books and more than 120 articles. A French-Tunisian dual national, Mr. Ben Naceur is a graduate of Ecole Polytechnique and Ecole Normale Supérieure of France, with an Agrégation de Mathématiques.

CISAC Central Conference Room
Encina Hall, 2nd Floor
616 Serra St
Stanford, CA 94305

Kamel Ben Naceur Director for Sustainability, Technology, and Outlooks International Energy Agency
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The recent US-ASEAN summit at Sunnylands in California is just the latest high-profile instance of Washington's efforts to strengthen its relations with Asia. Through a MacArthur Foundation-supported project he is leading, Bates Gill has explored a range of old and new security ties between the US and its partners in the Asia-Pacific region, including Indonesia, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Australia. Each of these governments seeks to strike the right balance between Washington and Beijing, but the domestic and foreign policies they employ for that purpose differ greatly. Basing his findings and analysis on extensive field research in these countries, Prof. Gill will offer recommendations for Washington and its regional partners as they look to engage with and hedge against a rising China.

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Bates Gill has a 30-year international career as a China watcher, having held teaching, research, and executive leadership positions in the United States, China, Europe, and Australia. He is currently a board director of China Matters, a not-for-profit advisory based in Sydney, Australia. In 2012-15 he was CEO of the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He directed the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute from 2007 to 2012 and previously held the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and served as the inaugural director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution. 

Prof. Gill has authored or edited seven books including Rising Star: China's New Security Diplomacy and Asia's New Multilateralism: Cooperation, Conflict and the Search for Community (co-edited with Michael Green). His professional affiliations include service on the editorial boards of China Quarterly and the Journal of Contemporary China, the international advisory board of the Shanghai Institutes of International Studies, and the board of governors of the Rajaratnam School of International Studies (Singapore). His PhD is from the Woodrow Wilson Department of Government and Foreign Affairs at the University of Virginia.

The US, China and the Balance of Influence in and around Southeast Asia
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Bates Gill Professor of Asia Pacific Strategic Studies, Australia National University
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China implemented a Zero-markup Policy for Essential Drugs (ZPED) since 2009 and this study evaluated the impact of ZPED on patients, county hospital revenue, and government subsidy levels. Data from Ningshan and Zhenping county hospitals were collected. The primary method of analysis was difference-in-differences. The results showed that ZPED had significant effects on patients and county hospital revenue but limited impact on government subsidy levels.  With regard to patients, for outpatient services, the total expense per visit and the drug expense per visit reduced by 19.02 CNY (3.12 USD) and by 27.20 CNY (4.47 USD), respectively. Importantly, this implies that the non-drug expense increased by 8.18 CNY (1.34 USD) for outpatient services. For inpatient services, the total expense per admission reduced by 399.6 CNY (65.60 USD), with reduction in both drug and non-drug expenses. With regard to the impact on county hospital revenue, ZPED led to an increase in health care provision and a sustained total hospital income despite a decrease in drug revenue. Lastly, the research demonstrates that with minimal or no subsidy, the government can catalyze the zero-markup policy and generate positive outcomes for patients and county hospitals.

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Yanfang’s research focuses primarily on health systems from a political economy perspective. She holds a BA in Economics from Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, China, a Master’s in Management from Tsinghua University, China, and a ScD in Global Health and Population from Harvard University, USA. As the first author or the corresponding author, Yanfang has published on evaluation of health policy, equity of healthcare utilization, and estimates of elasticity of demand for healthcare in Health Policy, International Journal for Equity in Health, PLOS ONE, Chinese Health Economics, Chinese Journal of Health Policy, and other academic journals. She has also published news articles in Harvard College Global Health Review, HSPH International Student Newsletter, Hong Kong Economic Journal and People's Daily Overseas Edition. Yanfang's other research interests include survey methodology and field experiments, with a particular interest in cognitive interviewing, list experiments and anchoring vignette methods. Besides research, Yanfang is committed to community service. She is the initiator and currently the project director of the pilot, “Free Prenatal Text Messages to Improve Newborn Health”. Her team has been supported by the UBS Optimus Foundation (with 160,000 USD) to serve 6,000 pregnant women in rural Shaanxi, China, from 2013 to 2016. Prior to Harvard, Yanfang was a Visiting Researcher with the Hong Kong Policy and Research Institute in 2005 and a Research Fellow at Tsinghua University in 2007. In 2009, she entered a training program on qualitative program evaluation at the Center for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia. Following this, in 2010, she became a Desmond and Whitney Shum Fellow at Harvard's Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. Currently, she is a Policy Consultant to Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Yanfang Su, Sc.D Policy Consultant, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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