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Please note: All research in progress seminars are off-the-record. Any information about methodology and/or results are embargoed until publication.

Abstract:

Quantitative evaluation of environmental, health, and safety policies requires a metric for the value of changes in health risk. This metric should be consistent with both the preferences of the affected individuals and social preferences for distribution of health risks in the population. There are two classes of metrics widely used in practice: monetary measures (e.g., compensating and equivalent variations, willingness to pay and willingness to accept compensation) and health-utility measures (e.g., quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)), both of which are summed across the population. Health-utility measures impose more structure on individual preferences than monetary measures, with the result that individuals’ preferences often appear inconsistent with these measures; for the same reason, health-utility measures help protect against cognitive errors and other sources of incoherence in estimates of the values of monetary measures obtained from revealed- and stated-preference studies. This paper presents theoretical and empirical evidence comparing these metrics and examining how they co-vary.

James Hammitt Harvard University
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Abstract: The disclosure of software vulnerabilities has stirred controversy for decades among security researchers and software vendors, and more recently governments. Despite increasing interdependency of software and systems (e.g., the Internet of Things) and resulting complexity in vulnerability disclosure and coordination, no unified norms have yet emerged.

This talk addresses the development of norms that (attempt to) govern the disclosure of software security flaws in relation to structural changes of the software industry and the Internet. This includes new forms of private, but monetarily rewarded disclosure on markets and through bug bounty programs, as well as government efforts to prohibit proliferation of knowledge and technology through export controls. Recently, governments acknowledged the withholding of vulnerability information on the grounds of national security and law enforcement needs, trading off against the need for defensive security of civilian computers and networks.

The talk outlines pressing policy issues and connects them to recent developments (e.g., Apple vs. FBI). It concludes by making the case for why norms on vulnerability disclosure are an essential component in shaping cybersecurity governance.

About the Speaker: Andreas Kuehn is a Ph.D. Candidate in Information Science and Technology at Syracuse University. He joined CISAC as a Zukerman Cybersecurity Predoctoral Fellow in October 2014. Prior, he was a visiting graduate student at Cornell University’s Department of Science & Technology Studies. He holds a M.Sc. in Information Systems from the University of Zurich, Switzerland.

In his dissertation, Andreas examined the historical, organizational, and institutional developments of software vulnerability and exploit markets as they are shaped by the perennial controversy on vulnerability disclosure. His qualitative, empirical research on emerging technologies and governance is informed by Science and Technology Studies and Institutional Theory.

Cybersecurity Predoctoral Fellow CISAC, Stanford University
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As the keynote for Shorenstein APARC's 8th annual Koret Workshop, Se Young Ahn, one of South Korea's leading public intellectuals, will analyze the Korean experience of utilizing global talent and immigration in the context of an extremely rapidly aging society.

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Ahn is the chairman of the National Research Council for Economics, Humanities and Social Sciences in South Korea. He oversees 23 national think tanks including Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, Korea Development Institute, Science and Technology Policy Institute, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, Korea Labor Institute, and Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs. He also chairs the National Advisory Committee for Trade Negotiation, and is a professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Sogang University. Ahn's research areas include trade policy and economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region as well as the China-Korea Free Trade Agreement and Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement. A graduate of Seoul National University, Chairman Ahn received a doctoral degree from the Pantheon-Sorbonne (Paris I) University in France.

The Koret Workshop is made possible through the generous support of the Koret Foundation.

Se Young Ahn <i>Chairman, National Research Council for Economics, Humanities and Social Sciences</i>, Korea
Seminars
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Abstract: Industry, medical centers, academics and patient advocates have come together to create common standards for the representation and exchange of genomics information for both research and clinical use in The Global Alliance for Genomics and Health. Now GA4GH involves hundreds of organizations and individuals worldwide. The open source projects of our Data Working Group welcome participation by all individuals and organizations.

About the Speaker: David Haussler develops new statistical and algorithmic methods to explore the molecular function, evolution, and disease process in the human genome, integrating comparative and high-throughput genomics data to study gene structure, function, and regulation. As a collaborator on the international Human Genome Project, his team posted the first publicly available computational assembly of the human genome sequence. His team subsequently developed the UCSC Genome Browser, a web-based tool that is used extensively in biomedical research. He built the CGHub database to hold NCI’s cancer genome data, co-founded the Genome 10K project so science can learn from other vertebrate genomes, co-founded the Treehouse Childhood Cancer Project to enable international comparison of childhood cancer genomes, and is a co-founder of the Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH), a coalition of the top research, health care, and disease advocacy organizations.

Haussler is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a fellow of AAAS and AAAI. He has won a number of awards, including the 2014 Dan David Prize, 2011 Weldon Memorial prize for application of mathematics and statistics to biology, 2009 ASHG Curt Stern Award in Human Genetics, and the 2008 Senior Scientist Accomplishment Award from the International Society for Computational Biology, the 2006 Dickson Prize for Science from Carnegie Mellon University, and the 2003 ACM/AAAI Allen Newell Award in Artificial Intelligence.

David Haussler Distinguished Professor, Biomolecular Engineering UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California, Santa Cruz
Seminars
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- This event is jointly sponsored by the China Program and the Japan Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) -

 

Since September 2012, frictions between Beijing and Tokyo over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea have become unprecedentedly unstable. Both China's military and paramilitary activity in the surrounding waters and airspace and Japan's fighter jet scrambles have reached all­-time highs. Recent public opinion polls in both countries record mutual antipathy at the highest level since leaders normalized bilateral diplomatic ties in the 1970s.

Especially under these volatile conditions, risk has surged. Even an accident stemming from a low­-level encounter could quickly escalate into a major crisis between the world's second­- and third­-largest economies (and would entrap the first-largest: the United States). This seminar examines the strengths and weaknesses of China's and Japan's crisis management mechanisms and the implications of nascent national security councils (established in late 2013) in both countries for crisis (in)stability in the East China Sea. It will also examine the prospects for, and obstacles to, more effective crisis management.

Beyond its contemporary policy relevance, the discussion will also engage issues with important implications for Chinese and Japanese foreign policy decision­making, political reforms, civil­ military relations, and U.S. relations with both countries.

 

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Adam P. LIFF is Assistant Professor of East Asian International Relations in Indiana University’s new School of Global and International Studies (SGIS/EALC Dept). At SGIS, Adam is also the founding director of the “East Asia and the World” speaker series, faculty affiliate at the Center on American and Global Security, and senior associate at the China Policy Research Institute. He holds a Ph.D. and M.A. in Politics from Princeton University, and a B.A. from Stanford University. Since 2014, Adam has been an associate-in-research at Harvard University’s Reischauer Institute of Japanese Studies and Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. His research website is www.adampliff.com.

Professor Liff’s research and teaching focus on international relations and security studies—with a particular emphasis on contemporary security affairs in the Asia-Pacific region; the foreign relations of Japan and China; U.S. policy toward the Asia-Pacific (esp. U.S. security alliances); the continuing evolution of Japan’s postwar security policy profile; and the rise of China and its impact on its region and the world. His scholarship has been published or is forthcoming in The China Quarterly, International Security, Journal of Contemporary China, Journal of Strategic Studies, Security Studies, and The Washington Quarterly, and has been cited widely in global media, including in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, and The Economist. Other recent publications include several book chapters in edited volumes and articles in policy journals and online, including in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and The National Interest.

Professor Liff’s past academic research affiliations include the Princeton-Harvard China and the World Program, the Harvard Kennedy School of Government's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the University of Virginia's Miller Center, the University of Tokyo's Institute of Social Science, Peking University's School of International Studies, the Stanford Center at PKU, and the University of Tokyo's Graduate School of Law and Politics.

Adam P. Liff Assistant Professor of East Asian International Relations, Indiana University's new School of Global and International Studies
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American innovation has helped power economic growth and rising living standards at home and abroad for nearly two centuries.  Today, many government officials, corporate executives, and researchers worry that the American innovation machine is losing its dynamism.  Others worry that the United States is about to be overtaken by rising Asian technological superpowers, like China, and that this will constrain the living standards of future generations of Americans.  Lee Branstetter draws upon the most recent data and economic scholarship to argue that neither fear is consistent with the evidence.  Instead, the evidence points to the emergence of an increasingly integrated global R&D system in which the emerging innovative strengths of nations like China reinforce American technological progress and productivity growth far more than they threaten it.  Branstetter concludes with a set of policy recommendations that can help ensure robust technological progress and economic growth in the 21st century.       
 

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Lee Branstetter is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University, and he is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC.  From 2011-2012, he served as the senior economist for international trade and investment on the staff of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.

Lee Branstetter Professor, Economics and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University
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Although Japan had largely resolved the problem of banks’ non-performing loans and firms’ damaged balance sheets by the early 2000s, productivity growth hardly accelerated, resulting in what now are “two lost decades.” This presentation examines the underlying reasons of Japan’s low TFP growth from a long-term and structural perspective using an industry-level database and micro-level data. The data seem to show that, since the 1990s, some core characteristics of Japanese firms, such as tight customer-supplier relationships and the life-time employment system, have become obstacles to their TFP growth in an environment shaped by globalization and slow/negative growth in the working age population.

 

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Kyoji Fukao is Professor at the Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, as well as a Program Director and Faculty Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). Other positions include: Vice-Chairperson of the Working Party on Industry Analysis (WPIA), OECD; Member of the Executive Committee of the Asian Historical Economics Society (AHES); External Research Associate at the Centre on Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE), Warwick University. He has published widely on productivity, international economics, economic history, and related topics in journals such as the Journal of Political Economy, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Income and Wealth, Explorations in Economic History, and Economica. In addition, he is the author of Japan’s Economy and the Two Lost Decades (Nikkei Publishing Inc., in Japanese) and, with Tsutomu Miyagawa, the editor of Productivity and Japan’s Economic Growth: Industry-Level and Firm-Level Studies Based on the JIP Database (University of Tokyo Press, in Japanese).

 

Kyoji Fukao Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University
Seminars
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In this presentation Professor Takenaka will demonstrate how the House of Councillors has restrained Japanese prime ministers in formulating the Japanese security policy since the 1990s.

Japan has drastically changed its security policy since the 1990s. This is symbolized by the dispatch of the SDF to PKO in Cambodia in 1992 as well as deployment of the SDF in Iraq after the Iraq War in 2004. There have been three fundamental changes. First, Japan has become more positive in making use of SDF in UN peace keeping operations. Second, it has allowed the SDF to play more active roles in supporting US military operations worldwide. Third, it has decided to permit the exercise of the rights of collective defense, which had been completely restricted, under some conditions.

Such changes have gathered much academic attention. Many have pointed to reforms of political institutions from the 1990s as important factors in bringing shifts in security policy. They argue that reforms have provided Japanese prime ministers with enough political clout to make more profound changes in security policy.

Such arguments contribute greatly to enhancing understanding of the process in which the Japanese security policy is formulated. Yet, it is necessary to take into account the role of the House of Councillors to obtain a full picture of security policy formulation process. This is because the House of Councillors has imposed constraints over prime ministers in designing security policy. By examining security policy formulation process since the 1990s until now from the legislation of PKO bill in 1992 to the most recent legislation of security related bills in 2015, I show how prime ministers often had to compromise the substance of several policies, giving up some of his original ideas. Further, prime ministers often had to become delayed in implementing various policies because of the second chamber.

 

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Harukata Takenaka is a professor of political science at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.  He specializes in comparative politics and international political economy, with a particular focus on Japanese political economy. His research interests include democracy in Japan, and Japan's political and economic stagnation since the 1990s. 

He received a B.A. from the Faculty of Law of the University of Tokyo and an M.A. and Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University.  He is the author of Failed Democratization in Prewar Japan: Breakdown of a Hybrid Regime, (Stanford University Press, 2014), and Sangiin to ha [What is House of Councillors], (Chuokoron Shinsha, 2010).

Harukata Takenaka Professor, the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
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Abstract: Dr. Goodwin’s presentation will discuss some of the rapid developments in additive manufacturing technology (3-D printing with metals and other materials) and their relationship to high performance computing. His will then address issues concerning the potential impacts of these technologies to include the US nuclear enterprise, nuclear proliferation and nonproliferation, and terrorism.
 
About the Speaker: Dr. Bruce Goodwin, Associate Director-at-Large for National Security Policy and Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), is responsible for policy research and liaison with the US military, US government, and non-governmental organizations. He previously was the Principal Associate Director in charge of the nuclear weapons program at LLNL for twelve years.
Bruce Goodwin Associate Director-at-Large for National Security Policy and Research Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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Abstract:  Institutions like LLNL are part of an enterprise established in the mid-twentieth century to enable teams of scientists and engineers to deliver technological capabilities to address challenges to U.S. national security.  The steadily increasing pace of technological change, the reduced proportion of U.S. government funding invested in research and development relative to private sector investments, and the accelerating resources and programs for research globally have dramatically changed the context for this enterprise. Operational practices established to meet the national security needs of the last century must be updated to ensure that the national security science and technology enterprise can continue to deliver high quality capabilities to meet future threats and innovation to enhance U.S. national and economic security. Possible approaches for updating research careers and the structure of institutions include revamping policies for domestic and international partnerships, more effectively managing dual use technologies, and updating enterprise elements to draw on cutting-edge developments in academia and industry.

About the Speaker:  Patricia Falcone is the Deputy Director for Science and Technology, and Chief Technology Officer, of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). From 2009 to 2015, she served in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, including as the presidentially appointed and Senate-confirmed Associate Director for National Security and International Affairs.  Earlier she worked at the Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore, CA.  She earned a Ph.D. working in the High Temperature Gasdynamics Laboratory in Stanford’s mechanical engineering department.

Patricia Falcone Deputy Director for Science and Technology, and Chief Technology Officer, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Seminars
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