Shorenstein APARCStanford UniversityEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA 94305-6055
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Visiting Scholar at APARC
Winter 2020
Ph.D.

Kavita Singh joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) for the winter quarter of 2020 as a visiting scholar from the Public Health Foundation of India, where she serves as a research scientist at the Centre for Chronic Conditions and Injuries.  At APARC, she will be working with Dr. Karen Eggleston conducting research on diabetes management and health economics in South Asia.

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Shorenstein APARC's annual overview for academic year 2018-19 is now available.

Learn about the research, events, and publications produced by the Center's programs over the last twelve months. Feature sections look at U.S.-China relations and the diplomatic impasse with North Korea, and summaries of current Center research on the socioeconomic impact of new technologies, the success of Abenomics, South Korean nationalism, and how Southeast Asian countries are navigating U.S.-China competition. Catch up on the Center's policy work, education initiatives, and outreach/events.

Read online:

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Debak Das, CISAC’s MacArthur Nuclear Security Pre-doctoral Fellow, and his roundtable contributors examine the rising tensions between Pakistan and India and look at what the future might hold for the region. “Political relations in South Asia have hit rough weather,” writes Das. “So where does the nuclear relationship between India and Pakistan stand? Where do the key threats to peace in the region come from?” 

 

Read the rest at Texas National Security Review

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Noa Ronkin
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Type 2 diabetes has become a major public health problem in South Asia in recent decades. The region is now home to an estimated 84 million people suffering from diabetes—approximately one-fifth of the world’s 451 million adults with diabetes—a number that is expected to rise by 78% by 2045. Even more concerning, across South Asia the disease burden increasingly occurs in the most productive midlife period. Among Indians, for example, diabetes is estimated to occur on average 10 years earlier than their western counterparts, and almost half of Indian patients with type 2 diabetes are diagnosed before age 40.

How do South Asian health system influence diabetes care? What is the magnitude of the economic impact of diabetes in South Asia? And what can be done to mitigate that economic burden? These are some of the questions that a team of researchers, including Karen Eggleston, APARC’s deputy director and director of the Asia Health Policy Program, set out to answer in a new study published in the journal Current Diabetes Reports.

Eggleston co-authored the study with Kavita Singh of the Public Health Foundation of India and the Centre for Chronic Disease Control in New Delhi, and with M. Venkat Narayan, Professor of Medicine and Epidemiology and Director of the Global Diabetes Research Center at Emory University. They find that diabetes-related complications lead to enormous treatment costs, causing catastrophic medical spending and illness-induced poverty for many households.

The new study is related to a broader research project led by Eggleston, entitled Net Value in Diabetes Management, that compares health care use, medical spending, and clinical outcomes for patients with diabetes as a lens for understanding the economics of caring for patients with complicated chronic diseases across diverse health systems. This international collaborative research convenes teams of clinicians and health economists in ten countries (and growing) across Asia, as well as the United States and The Netherlands. Together, they analyze big data—detailed, longitudinal patient-level information for large samples from each country, including millions of records of clinical encounters, health-check-up, and medical spending—to compare the health care use and patient outcomes for adults with type 2 diabetes in their health systems.

In the new publication, Eggleston and her co-authors first introduce several unique features that characterize the type 2 diabetes epidemic in South Asia. These include a high risk of developing diabetes even at lower levels of body mass index than observed among western populations; a high prevalence of glucose intolerance, low levels of HDL cholesterol, and high levels of triglycerides; a relationship between impaired fetal nutrition, diabetes, and cardiovascular risk; and the likelihood of rapid urbanization impacting the diabetes burden of the wealthy and the underprivileged differently.

Furthermore, South Asian countries face difficult challenges in delivering diabetes care. The health sector in the region has little organized financing, leading to heavy out-of-pocket spending by patients. Limited availability and affordability of anti-diabetic drugs is a major driver of lower use of such medicines. These factors, combined with a general lack of health care professionals and infrastructural resources and low quality of healthcare governance, all contribute to poor health outcomes.

Eggleston and her co-authors assess the current literature on the economic impact of diabetes in South Asia. They show that, compared with the high prevalence of diabetes in South Asian countries, the total health spending as a percentage of GDP in the region has remained low and fairly constant (3-4% in most countries) over the last two decades, with less than 1% of GDP spent on healthcare by the government, and a miniscule 0.2% by pre-paid private insurance, resulting in a large proportion of out-of-pocket healthcare spending. The financial burden of diabetes and its complications can therefore have catastrophic implications for households that are often driven to sacrifice disastrous proportions of their income to cover treatment costs.

Diabetes causes premature mortality, high morbidity, and disability. To mitigate the economic and social welfare burden of the disease, the researchers conclude, policymakers in South Asia must take urgent action “to increase investment in evaluating cost-effective strategies to manage diabetes and preventative approaches.” The team offers a set of policy recommendations, including monitoring the economic burden of diabetes and the quality of care; focusing on the screening and prevention of diabetes and its risk factors; strengthening government health facilities and primary care services; expanding access to affordable, essential medicines, and more.

 

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People receiving diabetes care in a rural clinic in India Trinity Care Foundation via Flickr (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
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With an estimated 84 million people suffering from diabetes in South Asia, the disease imposes substantial economic burdens on individuals, families, and society. Furthermore, since the disease burden increasingly occurs in the most productive midlife period, it adversely affects workforce productivity and macroeconomic development. Diabetes-related complications lead to markedly higher treatment costs, causing catastrophic medical spending for many households, thus underscoring the importance of preventing diabetes-related complications.

This review describes the unique features of the diabetes epidemic in South Asia, critically assesses and identifies the gaps in the current literature on the economic impact of diabetes in South Asia, and finally, offers recommendations on ways to mitigate the economic burden of diabetes.

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Current Diabetes Reports
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Karen Eggleston
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EMERGING ISSUES IN CONTEMPORARY ASIA

A Special Seminar Series


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ABSTRACT: Why does success in combat sometimes fail to produce a stable and durable peace settlement? In the 1965 war, India successfully repelled a Pakistani invasion of the disputed territory of Kashmir, captured new territory, and launched a massive counter-offensive – but it did not improve the long-term security of Kashmir or deter future Pakistani aggression. This presentation offers an explanation that shows how war can help to establish deterrence between enduring rivals. I argue combat success is important, but must be paired with costly signals of resolve. In 1965, India achieved combat success but failed to deliver such signals of resolve: it did not permanently retain the Kashmiri territory it captured, and it deliberately limited the strategic threat posed by its counter-offensive. As a result, India defended against invasion without establishing post-war deterrence. India’s current military strategy continues to favor ineffective and potentially destabilizing concepts of deterrence. This carries implications not only for regional security, but also U.S. strategy, which increasingly depends on India to maintain a favorable and stable regional balance of power.
 
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Arzan Tarapore
PROFILE:
Arzan Tarapore is a nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, an adjunct defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, and from Fall 2019, an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University. His research lies at the intersection of South Asian politics and military strategy. His current book project explains the concept of strategic effectiveness, drawing on in-depth historical case studies of India’s war-fighting experience since 1965. Prior to his scholarly career, Arzan served for 13 years in the Australian Defence Department, which included operational deployments and a diplomatic posting to Washington, DC. He holds a PhD in war studies from King’s College London.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Philippines Conference RoomEncina Hall, 3rd Floor, Central616 Serra Street, Stanford, CA 94305
Arzan Tarapore Nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research
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We assess and compare computer science skills among final-year computer science undergraduates (seniors) in four major economic and political powers that produce approximately half of the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics graduates in the world. We find that seniors in the United States substantially outperform seniors in China, India, and Russia by 0.76–0.88 SDs and score comparably with seniors in elite institutions in these countries. Seniors in elite institutions in the United States further outperform seniors in elite institutions in China, India, and Russia by ∼0.85 SDs. The skills advantage of the United States is not because it has a large proportion of high-scoring international students. Finally, males score consistently but only moderately higher (0.16–0.41 SDs) than females within all four countries.

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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Prashant Loyalka
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EMERGING ISSUES IN CONTEMPORARY ASIA

A Special Seminar Series


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Oral Democracy studies citizens' voices in civic and political deliberations in India's gram sabhas (village assemblies), the largest deliberative institution in human history. The book analyses nearly three hundred transcripts of gram sabhas, sampled within the framework of a natural experiment, allowing the authors to study how state policy affects the quality of discourse, citizens' discursive performances and state enactments embodied by elected leaders and public officials. By drawing out the varieties of speech apparent in citizen and state interactions, the authors’ analysis shows that citizens' oral participation in development and governance can be improved by strengthening deliberative spaces through policy. Even in conditions of high inequality and illiteracy, gram sabhas can create discursive equality by developing the “oral competence” of citizens and establishing a space in which they can articulate their interests. The authors develop the concept of 'oral democracy' to aid the understanding of deliberative systems in non-Western and developing countries. 

Vijayendra (Biju) Rao, a Lead Economist in the Development Research Group of the World Bank, works at the intersection of scholarship and practice.  He integrates his training in economics with theories and methods from anthropology, sociology and political science to study the social, cultural, and political context of extreme poverty in developing countries. He leads the Social Observatory, an inter-disciplinary lab to improve the conversation between citizens and governments.  His research, published in leading journals in Economics, Political Science and Development Studies has spanned a variety of subjects including dowries in India, domestic violence, the economics of sex work, public celebrations, community development, and deliberative democracy.   He and Ghazala Mansuri co-authored  Localizing Development: Does Participation Work? He is speaking about his latest book (with Paromita Sanyal), Oral Democracy: Deliberation in Rural India (Cambridge University Press, 2019).  It be downloaded for free from here. He was a co-author of the 2006 World Development Report on Equity and Development, and has co-edited Culture and Public ActionHistory, Historians and Development Policy, and, Deliberation and Development.  He serves on the editorial boards of several journals and is a  member of the Successful Societies Program at the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR).
 

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APARC's Direcror of the Southeast Asia Program Donald K. Emmerson, Center Fellow Thomas Fingar, and Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow David M. Lampton spoke with The New Silk Road Project as part of a series of conversations that explores China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from various perspectives. The New Silk Road Project is a student-led research project that aims to better understand and raise awareness of China’s BRI by documenting its land-based component and compiling interviews with leading academics. 
 
Listen to the complete interviews below.
 
Donald K. Emmerson discusses Chinese investment in ASEAN, multilateralism, and the possibility of building the Kra Canal across Thailand to help offset China’s Malacca Dilemma:
 
 
Thomas Fingar discusses how Chinese policies and priorities interact with the goals and actions of other countries in Central and South Asia:
 
 
David M. Lampton discusses China’s development of high-speed railway networks in Southeast Asia:
 

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Chinese construction workers in Colombo, Sri Lanka
Chinese Construction workers on site at a shopping mall that is part of the Chinese managed Shangri-La retails and office complex in Colombo, Sri Lanka. For China, the relation with Sri Lanka is a critical link for its Belt and Road Initiative.
Paula Bronstein/Getty Images
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