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Since November 2018, a grassroots revolt of the forgotten lower middle classes from France’s far-flung suburbs and rural areas has risen against high taxes; social injustice; and the elites, President Emmanuel Macron foremost among them. Although this “Yellow Vest” movement is not dead, it is now weakened by internal feuds, excessive violence, a takeover by the far left, and Macron’s deft handling. Yet this revolt of “la France profonde” has underscored the fragility of Macron’s narrow sociological and political base. Macron’s decisive 2017 election victory owed more to his outsider status, the collapse of the traditional political establishment, and the rejection of the far right (led by Marine Le Pen) than to his free-market and pro-European agenda. In part, the Yellow Vest version of populism was a response to the “populism of the elites” embodied by Macron in 2017. The Yellow Vest movement further illustrates the central class and polarized ideological cleavages that shape the politics of a growing number of advanced democracies. Read here.

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Our Francis Fukuyama and UELP alumni, Sergii Leshchenko (Draper Hills Summer Fellow 2017) and Oleksandra Ustinova (Ukrainian emerging leaders 2018-9), are feat inMichelle Goldberg's NYT opinion piece "The Beacon Has Gone Out: What Trump & Giuliani Have Wrought." Read here.

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Ashish Goel
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While the Internet has revolutionized many aspects of our lives, there are still no online alternatives for making democratic decisions at large scale as a society. In this talk, we will describe algorithmic and market-inspired approaches towards large scale decision making that our research group is exploring. We will start with a model of opinion dynamics that can potentially lead to polarization, and relate that to commonly used recommendation algorithms. We will then describe the algorithms behind Stanford's participatory budgeting platform, and the lessons that we learnt from deploying this platform in over 70 civic elections. We will use this to motivate the need for a modern theory of social choice that goes beyond voting on candidates. We will then describe ongoing practical work on an automated moderator bot for civic deliberation (in collaboration with Jim Fishkin's group), and ongoing theoretical work on deliberative approaches to decision making. We will conclude with a summary of open directions, focusing in particular on fair advertising. 

Ashish Goel Bio

Lunch Seminar Series Flyer
  • E207, Encina Hall
  • 616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305
 
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Ashish Goel is a Professor of Management Science and Engineering and (by courtesy) Computer Science at Stanford University, and a member of Stanford's Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering. He received his PhD in Computer Science from Stanford in 1999, and was an Assistant Professor of Computer Science at the University of Southern California from 1999 to 2002. His research interests lie in the design, analysis, and applications of algorithms; current application areas of interest include social networks, participatory democracy, Internet commerce, and large scale data processing. Professor Goel is a recipient of an Alfred P. Sloan faculty fellowship (2004-06), a Terman faculty fellowship from Stanford, an NSF Career Award (2002-07), and a Rajeev Motwani mentorship award (2010). He was a co-author on the paper that won the best paper award at WWW 2009, and an Edelman Laureate in 2014. Professor Goel was a research fellow and technical advisor at Twitter, Inc. from July 2009 to Aug 2014.
Ashish Goel Professor of Management Science and Engineering
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Understanding the value of chronic disease care is critical to confronting the challenges of aging societies. In a new ebook published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research, APARC Deputy Director and Asia Health Policy Program Director Karen Eggleston provides a framework for assessing the social value of health spending.

The world population is aging faster than ever before and governments must confront the increasing burden of healthcare spending on their economies. At a time when the economics of aging is inseparable from the economics of healthcare, successful adaptations to older population age structures necessitate better understanding of the value of medical care. Policymakers, in particular, must incorporate value into considerations of healthcare cost growth, so they can determine the extent to which average health improvements offset added cost, reduce cases in which health spending rises without sufficient corresponding health outcomes, and reward those in which “we are getting what we pay for.”

A new book chapter, authored by APARC Deputy Director and Asia Health Policy Program Director Karen Eggleston, provides a framework for assessing the social value of health spending. Titled “Understanding ‘value for money’ in healthy aging,” the chapter is part of an ebook, Live Long and Prosper? The Economics of Ageing, published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).

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Quality-Adjusted Cost of Care

How do health economists incorporate value into measurements of health spending and how do they measure the social value of medical care? First they assume each additional year of life brings a given monetary value. Then they measure the growth in value to patients as monetized gains in “quality-adjusted life-years,” a metric that includes increases in life expectancy and quality of life. The difference between the change in health spending and the change in monetized gains on improved survival is the net change in quality-adjusted health spending or the net value of medical care.

Understanding the value of chronic disease care is especially critical in aging societies, as governments must transform their health systems to support patients who will live with chronic diseases for decades. Health benefits of medical care, however, are difficult to aggregate across disparate services and diseases, and hence focusing on management of a single important chronic disease allows researchers to develop metrics of quality improvement and value that are linked to rigorous clinical studies. Eggleston describes a recent international research collaboration, which she was part of, that did just that. The researchers studied quality adjustment for one disease of growing global prevalence, type 2 diabetes, in four different health systems: one in Europe (the Netherlands) and three in East Asia (Japan, Hong Kong, and Taiwan).

Results of the study suggest that, in each health system, the value of improved survival outweighs the increase in health spending. For example, in the case of Japan, Eggleston and her colleagues found a positive value net of $2,595 for $100,000 value of a life-year. They also compared net value across the four health systems and different patient samples, finding mean net value that ranged between $600 and $10,000 for a $100,000 value of a life-year. Moreover, net value was positive for all age groups and remains positive and significant for individuals well beyond traditional retirement ages. These results, says Eggleston, indicate “the importance of continuing investments in medical treatments and services that deliver health outcomes of commensurate or higher value.”

Policy Implications

Confronting the challenges of aging societies requires careful thinking about the value of investments in new technologies for managing chronic conditions. To promote healthy aging governments must be “resiliently persistent in measuring the value of innovations for healthy aging and rewarding those that deliver high net value,” argues Eggleston. The goal should be improving the “value for money” of medical care rather than applying largescale cost controls that might stifle important breakthroughs.

The four-system study by Eggleston and her colleagues provides a framework for developing methods for assessing quality improvement and the net value of chronic disease spending and, more broadly, for measuring the value of healthy aging.


Download Eggleston’s chapter as part of the entire ebook >>

Learn more about Dr. Karen Eggleston’s research agenda seeking to assess net value in diabetes management and to identify and analyze innovation for healthy aging.

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Nearly 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, historian Timothy Garton Ash spoke at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies about the long-term consequences of the revolutions and transitions that followed the end of Communist rule in countries such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.

Garton Ash, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and professor at Oxford University, spoke first about the “mixture of reform and revolution” in Hungary, which culminated on June 16, 1989, with the ceremonial reburial of Hungarian politician Imre Nagy.

A young student named Viktor Orbán gave a now-famous speech at that event, which thrust him into the political spotlight after he demanded the withdrawal of Soviet troops from the country, Garton Ash said. Today, Orbán is Hungary’s prime minister.

“The most electrifying moment was the speech of Viktor Orbán, who was totally unknown at the time,” Garton Ash said. “The scene was a bright hope of liberalism and democracy. He gave an electrifying speech, I’ll never forget it.”
 

Many of the problems facing East Central European countries today stem from the difficulties that surrounded those countries’ transitions from communist states to democratic institutions, Garton Ash said. It’s not surprising that democratic institutions in those countries are more fragile than they are in Britain or in the U.S., he added, because they’ve only had 30 years to establish themselves.

“The joke at the beginning of the transition in early 1990 was, ‘We know you can turn an aquarium into fish soup — but the question is, can you turn fish soup back into an aquarium?’” Garton Ash said. “The revolutionary transformation of communism had liquidized the aquarium. It had destroyed the rule of law, and it had destroyed democratic institutions, independent courts, and independent civil society.”
 

One of the biggest problems in East Central Europe today is not immigration — it’s emigration, Garton Ash said. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, nearly 2 million people out of a population of 17 million have left the former territory of East Germany, he said, and countries such as Latvia and Bulgaria have also seen staggering numbers of their citizens move elsewhere.

“Because of the freedom of movement granted by the European Union, there has been massive emigration of the most dynamic energetic younger people from these countries,” Garton Ash said. “But at the same time, populists win [East Central European] countries’ support by talking about the dangers of immigration as if these countries did not need immigration. There’s a kind of demographic panic in which the knowledge that the native population is being thinned out out under a very low birth rate is complemented by a paranoia.”
 

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Timothy Garton Ash, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and professor at Oxford University, spoke at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies about post-Communist East Central Europe on October 8, 2019. Photo: The Freeman Spogli Institute
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Representing 14 different countries, the Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy (MIP) first-year class is a diverse group. Of the 8 men and 21 women, some have worked in government, some have served in the military, and others just completed their undergraduate degrees. Their academic interests range from migration; to clean energy; to women’s, children’s and LGBTQIA rights; and they spend their free time woodworking, practicing Kung Fu, and listening to true-crime podcasts.

The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies spoke to five of the incoming first-year students about their backgrounds, passions, and dreams for the future. These are their stories.

Serage Amatory, 22. (Chouf, Lebanon) 

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“I’ve been living in Egypt for the last four years and attending American University in Cairo, where I double-majored in political science and multimedia journalism. My background is in human rights, and I plan to keep working in human rights after school. I worked as a journalist at one of the few nonpartisan TV stations in Lebanon, and I also worked at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Lebanon.

I’ve also made two documentary films — one is about the transgender community in Cairo, and the second film tells the stories of five male victims of rape and sexual assault in Cairo. I enjoy talking about issues that other people don’t want to talk about. I get a lot of disapproval from people all the time, but that's what motivates me — I want to be speaking about people who don’t have someone speaking about them. Someone has to bring attention to things that aren't in the mainstream, and that's what I like to do.

The Master’s in International Policy program here is amazing, and I love that you have the option to specialize in a topic — I’d like to study something concrete and know exactly what I'm going to be doing with it after I graduate. I studied really general topics in undergrad, and now I feel like it's time to augment my general education with something that's more specific. I came in with the expectation that I'm going to be specializing in governance and development, and while I still want to do that, I also really think I might want to take some cyber classes now. So we’ll see — I’m just really happy to be here.”

Maha Al Fahim, 21. (Vancouver, Canada and Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates) 

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“My interest in public policy started when I was 14. I wrote a nonfiction book about child abuse and gender discrimination, and it was based on my mother's story — she grew up in an abusive family. And in publishing that book, I really saw the power of writing to expose policy issues. When I went to Princeton for my undergraduate education, I wanted to hone my communication skills, because I saw communication as a really powerful tool. I wrote for the Daily Princetonian newspaper and Business Today magazine, and I was also chair of Princeton Writes, a program to promote writing among the community and celebrate the power of words.

Now I'm working on a novel. It's called "Shaolina", and it's set in China. The novel explores gender dynamics and financial and physical power. I traveled to China last summer to do research for the book, and I got to train with a Shaolin monk for 8 hours a day — we would wake up at 5 a.m. and run through the mountains, it was crazy. It was so cool to immerse myself in the experience like that. For me, Kung Fu is not just a sport, it’s a way of life. I've learned so many life lessons from Kung Fu: patience, perseverance, and balance, to name a few.

I love how Stanford is focusing on the future of policy, because as issues get more complex, you need not just qualitative skills, but also quantitative skills. And you need to be able to think creatively and innovatively. Our cohort is small — around 30 students — and I really like it. There are people here from very diverse backgrounds, and it has been really cool to hear so many different international perspectives.” 

Angela Ortega Pastor, 25. (Madrid, Spain) 

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“I studied economics at NYU Abu Dhabi, and then I worked for three years in Paris for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as an energy data manager in oil and gas topics. I worked a lot with the different countries within the OECD as well as with other organizations to help collect data, and we put all of that data into comprehensive reports so that other people and companies can use it for analysis. I really liked working there. I liked the international dynamic - everybody came from very different backgrounds and different places, so it was very congenial to learn from other people.

I'm an economist by training, and that impacts the way I like to look at the problems within the energy field. Such as, 'How can we get consumers and companies to want to transition to clean energy? Does it mean that we need to put policies in place, or regulate the market? Or are pure economic incentives going to do the trick?' There are a lot of professors at Stanford who have done research in that sphere, so that was also a big push for me to come here.

I really like Stanford so far. I've found that people here are very welcoming and happy to help. I was a bit worried about that - when you move somewhere new, you sometimes worry about cliques and how focused people will be on their own lives. But everyone that I've encountered has been really nice and helpful. It's made feel like, 'OK - I can figure out how this place works and eventually feel at home.'”

Craig Nelson, 37. (Minneapolis, Minnesota) 

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“I'm an infantry officer in the U.S. Army. I graduated from West Point in 2006, and I'm in my 14th year of service. I've done eight deployments across both Iraq and Afghanistan, and I've also spent a good amount of time stationed in Europe. My wife, Michelle, and I just moved to Palo Alto from Vicenza, Italy, with our 2-year-old son, Max. Michelle and I love to travel, we love being stationed abroad, and we think that the best way to complete a 20-year career in the Army is to be abroad as much as possible and see parts of the world that we would not otherwise be exposed to.

Overall what I hope to learn here is a better way for the American Army to help to implement the policy that I was a part of as the U.S. Army's forward-deployed unit in Europe. I was able to see where policy derived by our elected officials is actually implemented at a tactical level. I’d like to go back to the Army and implement that policy with a refined understanding of where it comes from and how it's generated.

Before social media became as ubiquitous as it is now, I think people were in groups based largely on where they're from - a certain area code, or a neighborhood, or a school. Now it's possible to identify with a group completely without respect to geographic location, and I think that's because of social media. I'm interested in how that drives security policy - how does that change cyber security policy, and how does that change the way that my country interfaces with its allies and its partners?

When I go back to the Army, I hope to be in a position of greater responsibility and leadership. And I think that this experience will broaden me in a way that I would not have achieved if I had stayed in the operational Army and done a more traditional job following what I just did in Italy.”

Sievlan Len, 23. (Toul Roveang Village, Cambodia) 

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“I earned my bachelor’s degree in global affairs from the American University of Phnom Penh in Cambodia. I did two internships before coming to Stanford: one was with a consulting firm, where I was working mainly on migration research and youth participation initiatives at the sub-national level. I also worked for a foundation that works on strengthening political parties in Cambodia. It was a really interesting experience, and it gave me the idea of doing my bachelor's thesis on migration.

My interests right now are in migration, development, and education. And I’m interested to learn about how the three interact, and how we can make the most out of migration. I'm so excited to explore the interdisciplinary aspects of the Master’s in International Policy program, because I've always felt that you can't separate these issues one from another — migration itself is very interdisciplinary, there is both a political and an economic side to it.

I come from a village in Cambodia, and I'm one of the luckiest in that I had the opportunity to pursue higher education. One of my dreams and goals is that everyone in Cambodia — including girls — have equal access to education, and at least to finish high school, and have the opportunity to pursue their dreams in universities if they’d like to. Where I grew up, I saw a lot of potential not being fulfilled because of people’s circumstances — poverty, or elders not valuing education. I really want to see that change. I want everyone to be able to reach their full potential.”

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Vienna Exchange student Mourad Chouaki and Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy (MIP) first-year students Corie Wieland, Rehana Mohammed and Maria Fernanda Porras Jacobo on the grass of the Stanford Oval in September 2019. Photo: Maria Fernanda Porras Jacobo.
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This event is now full and we are unable to take any further reservations. However, if you would like to be added to the waitlist, please email us at sj1874@stanford.edu.

Human capital is fleeing Russia. Since President Vladimir Putin’s ascent to the presidency, between 1.6 and 2 million Russians – out of a total population of 145 million – have left for Western democracies. This emigration sped up with Putin’s return as president in 2012, followed by a weakening economy and growing repressions. It soon began to look like a politically driven brain drain, causing increasing concern among Russian and international observers. In this pioneering study, the Council’s Eurasia Center offers a comprehensive analysis of the Putin Exodus and its implications for Russia and the West. Based on the findings from focus groups and surveys in four key locations in the United States and Europe, it also examines the cultural and political values and attitudes of the new Russian émigrés.

 

Sergei Erofeev
Sergei Erofeev
is currently a lecturer at Rutgers University and the Principal Investigator of the project Tectonic Value Shifts in Post-Soviet Societies (Narxoz University, Almaty). He has been involved in the internationalization of universities in Russia since the early 1990s. Previously, Dr. Erofeev served as a vice president for international affairs at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, the dean of international programs at the European University at Saint Petersburg, and the director of the Center for Sociology of Culture at Kazan Federal University in Russia. He has also been a Hubert H. Humphrey fellow at the University of Washington. Prior to his career in academia, Dr. Erofeev was a concert pianist, and has worked in the area of the sociology of the arts.

 

 

 

Co-sponsored by the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, the Center for Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies and the:

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Sergei Erofeev Rutgers University
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Abstract: Russia’s challenge to the West includes information operations (e.g., disinformation, political propaganda, and other forms of online manipulation) aimed at destabilizing the common ground that democratic societies in Europe and the United States need in order to govern themselves.  Kate Starbird will describe two case studies of online information operations connected to Russia’s media/intelligence apparatus:  interference in the 2016 U.S. election and the campaign against the “White Helmets” in Syria.  She argues that defending against Russian online information operations will require a more nuanced understanding of the problem, in particular, moving beyond focusing on “bots” and “trolls” to looking at the collaborative nature of disinformation campaigns that target, infiltrate, shape, and leverage online communities—communities which may not recognize their role in these campaigns. 

 

Seminar Recording: https://youtu.be/lF4M11FkEKY

 

Speaker's Biography:

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Kate Starbird is an Associate Professor at the Department of Human Centered Design & Engineering (HCDE) at the University of Washington (UW). Starbird’s research is situated within human-computer interaction (HCI) and the emerging field of crisis informatics—the study of the how information-communication technologies (ICTs) are used during crisis events. One aspect of her research focuses on how online rumors spread during natural disasters and man-made crisis events. More recently, she has begun to focus on disinformation and other forms of strategic information operations online. Starbird earned her PhD from the University of Colorado at Boulder in Technology, Media and Society and holds a BS in Computer Science from Stanford University.

Kate Starbird University of Washington
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marietje.schaake

Marietje Schaake is a non-resident Fellow at Stanford’s Cyber Policy Center and at the Institute for Human-Centered AI. She is a columnist for the Financial Times and serves on a number of not-for-profit Boards as well as the UN's High Level Advisory Body on AI. Between 2009-2019 she served as a Member of European Parliament where she worked on trade-, foreign- and tech policy. She is the author of The Tech Coup.


 

Non-Resident Fellow, Cyber Policy Center
Fellow, Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence
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