A hidden trove of historical crop yield data from Africa shows that corn - long believed to tolerate hot temperatures - is a likely victim of global warming.

Stanford agricultural scientist David Lobell and researchers at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) report in the inaugural issue of Nature Climate Change next week that a clear negative effect of warming on maize - or corn - production was evident in experimental crop trial data conducted in Africa by the organization and its partners from 1999 to 2007.

Led by Lobell, the researchers combined data from 20,000 trials in sub-Saharan Africa with weather data recorded at stations scattered across the region. They found that a temperature rise of a single degree Celsius would cause yield losses for 65 percent of the present maize-growing region in Africa - provided the crops received the optimal amount of rainfall. Under drought conditions, the entire maize-growing region would suffer yield losses, with more than 75 percent of areas predicted to decline by at least 20 percent for 1 degree Celsius of warming.

"The pronounced effect of heat on maize was surprising because we assumed maize to be among the more heat-tolerant crops," said Marianne Banziger, co-author of the study and deputy director general for research at CIMMYT."

"Essentially, the longer a maize crop is exposed to temperatures above 30 C, or 86 F, the more the yield declines," she said. "The effect is even larger if drought and heat come together, which is expected to happen more frequently with climate change in Africa, Asia or Central America, and will pose an added challenge to meeting the increasing demand for staple crops on our planet."

Similar sources of information elsewhere in the developing world could improve crop forecasting for other vast regions where data has been lacking, according to Lobell, who is lead author of the paper describing the study.

"Projections of climate change impacts on food production have been hampered by not knowing exactly how crops fair when it gets hot," Lobell said. "This study helps to clear that issue up, at least for one important crop."

While the crop trials have been run for many years throughout Africa, to identify promising varieties for release to farmers, nobody had previously examined the weather at the trial sites and studied the effect of weather on the yields, said Lobell, who is an assistant professor of environmental earth system science and fellow at Stanford's Program on Food Security and the Environment.

"These trials were organized for completely different purposes than studying the effect of climate change on the crops," he said. "They had a much shorter term goal, which was to get the overall best-performing strains into the hands of farmers growing maize under a broad range of conditions."

The data recorded at the yield testing sites did not include weather information. Instead, the researchers used data gathered from weather stations all over sub-Saharan Africa. Although the stations were operated by different organizations, all data collection was organized by the World Meteorological Organization, so the methods used were consistent.

Lobell then took the available weather data and interpolated between recording stations to infer what the weather would have been like at the test sites. By merging the weather and crop data, the researchers could examine climate impacts.

"It was like sending two friends on a blind date - we weren't sure how it would go, but they really hit it off," Lobell said.

Previously, most research on climate change impacts on agriculture has had to rely on crop data from studies in the temperate regions of North America and Europe, which has been a problem.

"When you take a model that has been developed with data from one kind of environment, such as a temperate climate, and apply it to the rest of the world, there are lots of things that can go wrong" Lobell said, noting that much of the developing world lies in tropical or subtropical climates.

But he said many of the larger countries in the developing world, such as India, China and Brazil, which encompass a wide range of climates, are running yield testing programs that could be a source of comparable data. Private agribusiness companies are also increasingly doing crop testing in the tropics.

"We're hoping that with this clear demonstration of the value of this kind of data for assessing climate impacts on crops that others will either share or take a closer look themselves at their data for various crops," Lobell said.

"I think we may just be scratching the surface of what can be achieved by combining existing knowledge and data from the climate and agriculture communities. Hopefully this will help catalyze some more effort in this area."

Lobell is a Center Fellow at the Program on Food Security and the Environment, a joint program of Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment and Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

The work was funded by the Rockefeller Foundation

In an effort to foster a more open, transparent and accessible scientific dialogue, we've started a new effort aimed at inspiring pioneering use of technology, new media and computational thinking in the communication of science to diverse audiences. Initially, we'll focus on communicating the science on climate change.

We're kicking off this effort by naming 21 Google Science Communications Fellows. These fellows were elected from a pool of applicants of early to mid-career Ph.D. scientists nominated by leaders in climate change research and science-based institutions across the U.S. It was hard to choose just 21 fellows from such an impressive pool of scientists; ultimately, we chose scientists who had the strongest potential to become excellent communicators. That meant previous training in science communication; research in topics related to understanding or managing climate change; and experience experimenting with innovative approaches or technology tools for science communication.

This year's fellows are an impressive bunch:

• Brendan Bohannan, Associate Professor of Environmental Studies and Biology, University of Oregon
• Edward Brook, Professor, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University
• Julia Cole, Professor, Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona
• Eugene Cordero, Associate Professor, Meteorology and Climate Science, San Jose University
• Frank Davis, Professor, Landscape Ecology & Conservation Planning, University of California-Santa Barbara
• Andrew Dessler, Professor, Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University
• Noah Diffenbaugh, Assistant Professor, Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University
• Simon Donner, Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia
• Nicole Heller, Research Scientist, Climate Central
• Brian Helmuth, Professor, Biological Sciences, University South Carolina
• Paul Higgins, Associate Director, Policy Program, American Meteorological Society
• Jonathan Koomey, Consulting Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University
• David Lea, Professor, Earth Science, University of California-Santa Barbara
• Kelly Levin, Senior Research Associate, World Resources Institute
• David Lobell, Assistant Professor, Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University
• Edwin Maurer, Associate Professor, Civil Engineering, Santa Clara University
• Susanne Moser, Research Associate, Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California-Santa Cruz
• Matthew Nisbet, Associate Professor, School of Communication, American University
• Rebecca Shaw, Director of Conservation, The Nature Conservancy, CA Chapter
• Whendee Silver, Professor, Ecosystem Ecology and Biogeochemistry, University of California-Berkeley
• Alan Townsend, Professor, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado

At our Mountain View, Calif. headquarters in June, the fellows will participate in a workshop, which will integrate hands-on training and facilitated brainstorming on topics of technology and science communication. Following the workshop, fellows will be given the opportunity to apply for grants to put their ideas into practice. Those with the most impactful projects will be given the opportunity to join a Lindblad Expeditions & National Geographic trip to the Arctic, the Galapagos or Antarctica as a science communicator.

Congratulations to all of the fellows! And we'll keep you posted on more ideas and tools emerging for science communication.

A group of leading American and Japanese venture capitalists, entrepreneurs, academic experts, government officials, and leaders in business and related fields joined the "U.S. - Japan Dialogue to Promote Innovation, Entrepreneurship and Job Creation" symposium, organized by the Stanford Project on Japanese Entrepreneurship (STAJE), the largest U.S.-Japan event held at Stanford in many years, on February 23, 2011.

Representatives from both governments opened the event by underscoring the economic and strategic reasons for closer U.S.-Japan cooperation in promoting innovation and entrepreneurship. U.S. Ambassador to Japan John V. Roos emphasized how an economically vibrant Japan is critical to the security of the United States, and how it creates opportunities for U.S. trade, investment, and job creation. Moreover, innovation and collaboration are vital to addressing critical global issues, such as climate change. Under Secretary of State Robert D. Hormats noted how innovation and entrepreneurship, often involving young firms bringing new technology to market, are fundamental to ensuring sustainable growth and inclusive prosperity, both at home and across the globe. For Japan, Teruhiko Mashiko, a Ranking Member of the Diet's Committee on Economy and Industry and a former Senior Vice Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry, highlighted the potential for greater employment, development of green technology, and the circulation of human and other resources through innovation and entrepreneurship.

Several speakers pointed to ways government and the private sector can foster the creation of entrepreneurial ventures with a global outlook. Professor William F. Miller, co-director of the Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE), focused attention on the need to support the full entrepreneurial habitat—including an active angel investor and venture community, entrepreneurial education, passionate entrepreneurs, and business services (legal, consulting, financial) that understand the needs of start-up companies. Additionally, several speakers suggested that mid-career hiring by large Japanese firms and greater willingness on their part to grow by acquisition would increase labor mobility and expand opportunities for entrepreneurial ventures. They expressed concern that, at present, a public offering of shares is practically the only option for startup firms to exit the venture stage in Japan. Others highlighted how greater English-language proficiency and changes in immigration law could expand the linkages between Japan and the global community of entrepreneurs and venture capitalists.

Larry W. Sonsini, Chairman of Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, reflected on the waves of innovation that Silicon Valley has generated, both in terms of new technologies coming to market as well as the maturing of technology already out. Defining Silicon Valley as a culture rather than a place, he outlined the ingredients in the recipe for its success: an entrepreneurial culture, with such features as mobility of talent, diversity, and acceptance of failure as a type of learning; ready access to capital; sources of technology and technologists, particularly from universities and large forward-looking corporations; government support; developed laws and accounting systems; availability of exit options for ventures; and an infrastructure of lawyers, accountants, bankers, and consultants. He also offered his thoughts on key trends that will influence the position and direction of emerging technology companies, including: globalization, regulatory changes, development of capital markets, education, and the rule of law.

In the closing remarks of the day-long symposium, Robert Eberhart, a SPRIE researcher and the leader of the SPRIE-STAJE project, summarized the three potential roles for governments to play in promoting innovation and entrepreneurship: to establish rules to ensure fair dealing and access to the market; to rewrite (i.e., reform) the rules of a market thereby ensuring firms will address it in new ways; and to stimulate demand for advanced technology by purchasing it for its own reasons, thereby creating new opportunities for entrepreneurial technology ventures.