How Good is the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement -- and Good for Whom?: A Philippine View
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FSE senior fellow Scott Rozelle on China's ability to meet increasing demand
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OMAHA (DTN) -- China is the world's No. 1 producer and consumer of pork and poultry, producing more than five times the pork raised in the U.S. and 80 percent as much poultry. With its economic growth and increasing middle class, it is inevitable that meat consumption will rise.
The question is: Will China be able to continue to boost production sufficiently to meet that demand? The answer has implications for U.S. grain and meat producers.
"Rapidly rising incomes will have wrenching effects on the demand for food," said Scott Rozelle, agricultural economist at Stanford University. "As increasingly well-off consumers get fewer of their calories from rice and wheat, they will demand more from high-value products such as meat, fish, dairy and fruit. Urbanization has similar impacts, dampening the demand for rice and wheat and raising the demand for meat, fish, dairy and fruit. Trying to meet these rising -- and shifting -- demands will pose a large challenge."
Most importantly, given the great constraints China faces in arable land and water, the government has chosen to focus its agriculture in two ways: staple food crops such as rice and oilseeds and value-added products, said Francis Tuan, with USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service. It is aiming for a high percentage of self-sufficiency in staples to ensure its population doesn't go hungry. On the other hand, it wants to garner as much economic growth from agricultural production as possible.
"China is exporting more labor-intensive fruits and vegetables and higher-value commodities, while it is importing more land-intensive agricultural commodities, such as soybeans, cotton, sugar and dairy," Rozelle added. "These shifts are obviously more in line with China's comparative advantage."
One example of that trend is China's purchases of raw soybeans to be crushed in China for oil. Another is some farmers leaving crop production to focus on livestock.
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Energy Working Group: Modeling the World Steam Coal Market: To What Extent Does China Exercise Monopsony Power?
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This EWG talk will highlight PESD's first analysis using our new coal model by demonstrating how it can be used to analyze the effects of China's import behavior on world thermal coal consumption. We will explore China's capability as a consumer to exercise market power in the domestic Chinese markets, and to what extent this behavior affects the price, consumption, and production of steam coal globally. Two scenarios will be presented: 1) we assume Chinese consumers with import capability behave competitively and 2) we assume they exercise market power.
The use of coal as a fuel has increased tremendously over the past decade, with most of the growth coming from rapidly expanding economies like those in China and India. As coal continues to be the fuel of choice for electricity generation around the world, PESD is excited to be developing a model to further understand the global steam coal market. In the future, we anticipate the model will help answer questions regarding climate and trade policies, market structure, and technology improvements.
Michael Joined PESD in July of 2010 as a research assistant after graduating from Stanford University with a BA in Economics.
Encina Hall
Stanford University
Michael Miller
616 Serra St.
Encina Hall East
Stanford, CA 94305
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mmiller8@stanford.edu
Research Assistant
Michael joined PESD in July of 2010 after graduating from Stanford with a BA in Economics. He works with the Program Director, Frank A. Wolak, as a Quantitative Research Assistant. At Stanford he discovered his interest in Economics as a tool for encouraging more responsible use of energy and resources. He looks forward to working at PESD where he will continue to explore these interests.
His research interests include studying the effects of price-based climate policies, and to what extent they accelerate the production and adoption of low-carbon energy technologies.
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The NATO-EU-Russia Triangle: Different Perceptions and Approaches to International Security
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About the speaker:
Dr. Franz Cede is a retired Austrian diplomat who served as the Austrian Ambassador to Russia (1999-2003) and to NATO (2003-2007). He also was the Legal Advisor to the Austrian Foreign Ministry. He has a strong California connection dating back to the time when he was the Austrian Consul General in Los Angeles 20 years ago. Dr Cede holds the degree "Doctor of Law" from Innsbruck University. He received an M.A. in international affairs from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, D.C., and is currently an associate professor at the Andrassy University in Budapest, Hungary. Dr. Cede has published several books and articles in the field of international relations, international law and diplomacy.
Jointly sponsored by The Europe Center at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies.
Audio Synopsis:
In this talk, Dr. Cede details his views on Russia's evolving relationships with the EU, NATO, and the US, drawing on his experiences as Austrian ambassador to the Soviet Union from1999 to 2003. Cede first outlines his perceptions of present-day Russia-US and Russia-NATO relations. Russia, he explains, still thinks in Cold War terms of bilateral relations and considers the United States to be its primary strategic partner on global security issues, especially in light of the Obama administration's recent "reset" of relations and ratification of the new START treaty. In contrast, Russia views NATO as outdated and yet still a threat. Its expansion to the East is viewed with suspicion by Putin's administration, which considers these developments to be distinctly anti-Russian. Russia engages with NATO only to the extent that it believes it can influence the organization's behavior and policies toward Moscow. Still, in Cede's experience, the NATO-US-Russia triangle continues to be at the forefront of Russian policymakers' dialogue. Russian leaders prefer to avoid dealing with the EU because it lacks a coherent foreign policy, and also because Russia prefers bilateral relations with countries that offer a strategic benefit. Dr. Cede quotes Timothy Garton Ash, who wrote in a recent op-ed that "much of the Russian foreign policy elite treats the European Union as a kind of transient, post-modern late 20th century anachronism: flawed in principle, and feeble in practice. What matters in the 21st century, as much as it did in the 19th century, is the...determination of great powers." Dr. Cede cites the Georgian military intervention and recent Ukrainian gas crisis as examples of Russia's renewed attempts to reestablish dominance in its neighborhood.
In the second portion of his talk Dr. Cede traces the evolution of Russian views of the EU and NATO. Ten years ago, the EU-Russia relationship was largely ignored in the Russian media. When Cede asked Russian citizens for their views on the EU, they "either didn't know or didn't care." As Ambassador, Dr. Cede found Russian officials better informed, but disdainful of being given orders by EU donors and "treated like a developing country." Cede illustrates this dynamic by recounting the 2004 incident in which the EU forced the residents of Russia's Kaliningrad Oblast region to apply for EU Shengen visas, which then required special permits to travel throughout Russia. Western assurances that EU expansion to the east was not an attack on Russia but rather an attempt to extend stability to the Eastern bloc fell on deaf ears. Cede believes that notwithstanding Russia's attitude, the country is too big to ever join the EU, or to be influenced by Europe in its policy decisions. Because Russia still views itself as "one of the poles in a multipolar world," Dr. Cede insists that any change must come from within the country. However, Cede views Russia's candidacy to the WTO, which would require a clearer commitment to democracy and open economic policies, as a glimmer of hope.
Finally, Dr. Cede outlines several "permanent" features of Russia's relationship with the world, including economic interdependence, lack of cooperation on security policy, and weak relations with stateless organizations like the EU and NATO. He lays out several recommendations, which are elaborated on during the Q&A session:
- EU policymakers and other Western powers (notably the US) should strengthen their common Russia policy. Given the EU's dependence on Russia for oil and gas, it should also diversify its own energy sources to strengthen its bargaining position.
- The EU should consider membership for "bridge countries" such as Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus.
- Personal diplomacy between universities, civil society, and citizens is important. This includes reevaluation of visa policy. Cede hopes that the advent of the internet will also help improve attitudes between Russia and the rest of the world.
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Franz Cede
Former Austrian Ambassador to Russia
Speaker
Seminars
Connecting the Dots: The Food, Energy, Water, and Climate Nexus
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Conference presentations and tutorials now available
Stanford experts from a range of disciplines discuss the interconnections and interactions among humanity's needs for and use of food, energy, water, and environment. Drawing on their own research, the speakers will illustrate and evaluate some of the ways in which decisions in one resource area can lead to trade-offs or co-benefits in others. Symposium attendees participate in breakout sessions, led by Stanford students and faculty, on a range of challenges associated with sustainable food systems.
Stanford faculty participants include: Stacey Bent (Center on Nanostructuring for Efflicient Energy Conversion) Welcome; Roz Naylor (Program on Food Security and the Environment, Woods Institute for the Environment) The Global Food Challenge; Chris Field (Carnegie Institution Department of Global Ecology) The Food-Energy Nexus; David Lobell (Program on Food Security and the Environment, Woods Institute for the Environment) The Food-Climate Nexus; Buzz Thompson (Woods Institute for the Environment) The Food-Water Nexus; Mariano-Florentino Cuellar (Center for International Security and Cooperation, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies) The Food-Security Nexus; and Pamela Matson (School of Earth Sciences) The Way Forward. Breakout session topics include how to lower the carbon footprint of food, aquaculture, and how to make meat more sustainable.
Bishop Auditorium
518 Memorial Way
Stanford, CA 94305
Rosamond L. Naylor
The Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki
Environment and Energy Building
Stanford University
473 Via Ortega, Office 363
Stanford, CA 94305
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roz@stanford.edu
Senior Fellow, Stanford Woods Institute and Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William Wrigley Professor of Earth System Science
Senior Fellow and Founding Director, Center on Food Security and the Environment
Rosamond Naylor is the William Wrigley Professor in Earth System Science, a Senior Fellow at Stanford Woods Institute and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, the founding Director at the Center on Food Security and the Environment, and Professor of Economics (by courtesy) at Stanford University. She received her B.A. in Economics and Environmental Studies from the University of Colorado, her M.Sc. in Economics from the London School of Economics, and her Ph.D. in applied economics from Stanford University. Her research focuses on policies and practices to improve global food security and protect the environment on land and at sea. She works with her students in many locations around the world. She has been involved in many field-level research projects around the world and has published widely on issues related to intensive crop production, aquaculture and livestock systems, biofuels, climate change, food price volatility, and food policy analysis. In addition to her many peer-reviewed papers, Naylor has published two books on her work: The Evolving Sphere of Food Security (Naylor, ed., 2014), and The Tropical Oil Crops Revolution: Food, Farmers, Fuels, and Forests (Byerlee, Falcon, and Naylor, 2017).
She is a Fellow of the Ecological Society of America, a Pew Marine Fellow, a Leopold Leadership Fellow, a Fellow of the Beijer Institute for Ecological Economics, a member of Sigma Xi, and the co-Chair of the Blue Food Assessment. Naylor serves as the President of the Board of Directors for Aspen Global Change Institute, is a member of the Scientific Advisory Committee for Oceana and is a member of the Forest Advisory Panel for Cargill. At Stanford, Naylor teaches courses on the World Food Economy, Human-Environment Interactions, and Food and Security.
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Christopher B. Field
Jerry Yang & Akiko Yamazaki Environment & Energy Bldg.
473 Via Ortega, Room 221
Stanford, CA 94305
Phone: 650.736.4352
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cfield@stanford.edu
Perry L. McCarty Director of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.; Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences; FSI Senior Fellow, by courtesy
Chris Field is the Perry L. McCarty Director of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.
His research focuses on climate change, ranging from work on improving climate models, to prospects for renewable energy systems, to community organizations that can minimize the risk of a tragedy of the commons.
Field has been deeply involved with national and international scale efforts to advance science and assessment related to global ecology and climate change. He served as co-chair of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 2008-2015, where he led the effort on the IPCC Special Report on “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” (2012) and the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014) on Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.
Field assumed leadership of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment in September 2016. His other appointments at Stanford University include serving as the Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies in the School of Humanities and Sciences; Professor of Earth System Science in the School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences; and Senior Fellow with the Precourt Institute for Energy. Prior to his appointment as Woods' Perry L. McCarty Director, Field served as director of the Carnegie Institution for Science's Department of Global Ecology, which he founded in 2002. Field's tenure at the Carnegie Institution dates back to 1984.
His widely cited work has earned many recognitions, including election to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the Max Planck Research Award, the American Geophysical Union’s Roger Revelle Medal and the Stephen H. Schneider Award for Outstanding Science Communication. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the Ecological Society of America.
Field holds a bachelor’s degree in biology from Harvard College and earned his Ph.D. in biology from Stanford in 1981.
David Lobell
Energy and Environment Building
473 Via Ortega
Stanford CA 94305
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dlobell@stanford.edu
Professor, Earth System Science
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Senior Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment
Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR)
Affiliate, Precourt Institute of Energy
David Lobell is the Benjamin M. Page Professor at Stanford University in the Department of Earth System Science and the Gloria and Richard Kushel Director of the Center on Food Security and the Environment. He is also the William Wrigley Senior Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy and Research (SIEPR).
Lobell's research focuses on agriculture and food security, specifically on generating and using unique datasets to study rural areas throughout the world. His early research focused on climate change risks and adaptations in cropping systems, and he served on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report as lead author for the food chapter and core writing team member for the Summary for Policymakers. More recent work has developed new techniques to measure progress on sustainable development goals and study the impacts of climate-smart practices in agriculture. His work has been recognized with various awards, including the Macelwane Medal from the American Geophysical Union (2010), a Macarthur Fellowship (2013), the National Academy of Sciences Prize in Food and Agriculture Sciences (2022) and election to the National Academy of Sciences (2023).
Prior to his Stanford appointment, Lobell was a Lawrence Post-doctoral Fellow at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He holds a PhD in Geological and Environmental Sciences from Stanford University and a Sc.B. in Applied Mathematics from Brown University.
Lobell Lab
A project to advance the science that guides investment in food security and crop productivity, and to effectively communicate this science to a broad audience.
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G-FEED: Global Food, Environment and Economic Dynamics
An interdisciplinary group working cooperatively to understand the relationship between society and the environment by examining regional and global scale phenomena using statistical analyses of real world data.
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Barton H. Thompson
Jerry Yang & Akiko Yamazaki Environment & Energy Bldg.
473 Via Ortega, Rm 225
Stanford, CA 94305-4020
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buzzt@stanford.edu
Robert E. Paradise Professor of Natural Resources Law
A leading expert in environmental and natural resources law and policy, Barton H. “Buzz” Thompson, Jr., JD/MBA ’76 (BA ’72), has contributed a large body of scholarship on environmental issues ranging from the future of endangered species and fisheries to the use of economic techniques for regulating the environment. He is the founding director of the law school’s Environmental and Natural Resources Program, Perry L. McCarty Director and senior fellow of the Woods Institute for the Environment, and a senior fellow (by courtesy) at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. In 2008, the Supreme Court appointed Professor Thompson to serve as the special master in Montana v. Wyoming (137 Original). Professor Thompson is chairman of the board of the Resources Legacy Fund and the Resources Legacy Fund Foundation, a California trustee for The Nature Conservancy, and a board member of both the American Farmland Trust and the Sonoran Institute. He previously served as a member of the Science Advisory Board for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Before joining the Stanford Law School faculty in 1986, he was a partner at O’Melveny & Myers in Los Angeles and a lecturer at the UCLA School of Law. He was a law clerk to Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist ’52 (BA ’48, MA ’48) of the U.S. Supreme Court and Judge Joseph T. Sneed of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit.
Senior Fellow, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, and (by courtesy) the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar
Speaker
Pamela A. Matson
Dean of the School of Earth Sciences, Goldman Professor of Geological and Environmental Sciences and FSI Senior Fellow
Speaker
Stanford University
Conferences
Entrepreneurship in the Global Marketplace
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About the event
On Tuesday, March 1, SPRIE and Alibaba.com hosted “Entrepreneurship in the Global Marketplace,” a seminar featuring noted venture capitalists, entrepreneurs and executives. The seminar was the first in a series being conducted at several California universities under the auspices of the Schwarzenegger Emerging Entrepreneur Initiative.
Famed venture capitalist Tim Draper kicked off the event, sharing his insight on trends and strategies relevant to global business. Multiple facets of China’s role in supporting and enabling entrepreneurial ventures were spotlighted, including the presentation of new research on the rise and global impact of Chinese e-commerce, a talk by an executive from Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba.com, and lessons from a diverse set of entrepreneurs whose businesses depend on international trade. Additional perspectives were shared by China- and U.S.-based VCs.
This event was one of many being held at Stanford University during Entrepreneurship Week 2011, including compelling lectures, workshops, mentoring sessions, a job fair, and more. See full details at the Stanford Entrepreneurship Week website.
About the hosts
The Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE) is dedicated to advancing the understanding and practice of innovation and entrepreneurship in leading high technology regions in the global economy. Through and international and interdisciplinary research, publications, executive education, and conferences, SPRIE impacts the arenas of academia, policy, and business.
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The Schwarzenegger Emerging Entrepreneur Initiative is a program to spur entrepreneurship and stimulate job growth in California, created by Alibaba.com in partnership with former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Through a series of interactive events, the initiative aims to provide 3,000 California university students with guidance, skills and entrepreneurial know-how to start their own businesses and participate successfully in the knowledge-based networked economy.
Bechtel Conference Center
Timothy C. Draper
Founder
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Draper Fisher Jurvetson
Tami Zhu
Head of International Business Development and Marketing
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Alibaba.com Americas
Duncan Clark
BDA China Ltd
#2908 North Tower, Kerry Centre
1 Guanghua Road
Beijing 100020, China
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duncanc@stanford.edu
Senior Advisor for China 2.0 Project
Duncan Clark is Chairman of BDA China, a consultancy he founded in Beijing in 1994 after four years as an investment banker with Morgan Stanley in London and Hong Kong. Over the past 19 years, Duncan has guided BDA to become the leading investment advisory firm in China specialized in China's technology, internet and e-commerce sectors.
An angel investor in mobile game app developer Happy Latte and digital content metrics company App Annie Duncan has also served on the Advisory Board of Chinese internet company Netease.com (Nasdaq: NTES) and serves on the Advisory Board of the Digital Communication Fund of Geneva-based bank Pictet & Cie.
A UK citizen, Duncan was raised in England, the United States and France. A graduate of the London School of Economics & Political Science, Duncan is a Senior Advisor to the ‘China 2.0' initiative at the Stanford Graduate School of Business’s Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, where he was invited as a Visiting Scholar in 2010 and 2011.
Duncan is partner in a Beijing-based film production company CIB Productions, and Executive Producer of two China-themed television documentaries including ‘My Beijing Birthday’.
Duncan was appointed Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in the 2013 New Year Honours for services to British commercial interests in China.
Mike Effle
CEO
Speaker
Vendio
Marguerite Gong Hancock
Associate Director
Speaker
SPRIE
William F. Miller
Co-director
Speaker
SPRIE
Jonathan Ross Shriftman
Co-founder
Speaker
Solé Bicycle Co
Ryder Fyrwald
Vice President of Global Operations
Speaker
Kairos Society
Sanjay Subhedar
Managing Director
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Storm Ventures
Hans Tung
Partner
Speaker
Qiming Ventures
Seminars
CDDRL to host February 25 statebuilding conference featuring Ashraf Ghani
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Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law in partnership with the Canadian Foreign Affairs and International Trade department are hosting a symposium, Addressing the Accountability Gap in Statebuilding: The Case of Afghanistan, on February 25, 2011. The distinguished Ashraf Ghani, former Afghan Minister of Finance and 2009 Presidential Candidate, will be delivering the keynote address. This event will bring together practitioners, experts, and diplomats from Afghanistan and beyond, to share experiences and explore options to improve the contemporary practice of state-building. This conference and keynote address is open to the public.
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