Publications

Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.

Featured Publications

Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and U.S.-Russia Relations after the Cold War

Rose Gottemoeller uses lessons learned from U.S.-Russia relations during the George H. W. Bush and Clinton administrations to offer insights into how Russia today may be convinced to end its war against Ukraine and resume cooperation for the sake of global security.

SECURITY THROUGH COOPERATION

Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder

A clear-eyed look from Michael McFaul at how the rise of autocratic China and Russia are compelling some to think that we have entered a new Cold War—and why we must reject that thinking in order to prevail.

Autocrats vs. Democrats

Cover of The Highest Exam by Hongbon Li and Ruixue Jia, with Claire Cousineau.

The Highest Exam: How the Gaokao Shapes China

The National College Entrance Examination shapes the future of millions of students in China each year, but Hongbin Li and Ruixue Jia illuminate how this test of all tests is also shaping education, labor markets, political legitimacy, and social values beyond the PRC.

THE HIGHEST EXAM

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From Trade War to Green Transition: Optimal Electric Vehicle Tariffs with Revenue-Funded Subsidies

National Bureau of Economic Research, 2026

We study the optimal design of trade and industrial policy when governments pursue environmental objectives alongside traditional national welfare. Motivated by the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and growing concerns about competitiveness, resilience, and the environment, we develop a framework in which policymakers choose tariffs and domestic production subsidies to maximize national welfare, defined as the sum of consumer surplus, domestic profits, environmental benefits, and tariff revenue net of subsidies. We combine a theoretical model of differentiated-product oligopoly with a structural demand model estimated using vehicle-level data from 13 countries during 2004-2023 that together account for the vast majority of global EV sales. Our central finding is that the optimal policy combines a moderate tariff on imported EVs with a subsidy to domestic EV production financed through tariff revenue. This policy substantially outperforms both outright protectionism and laissez-faire. Relative to current policies, it preserves consumer access to affordable EVs, accelerates fleet electrification, supports domestic producers, and remains budget-neutral. For the United States, the optimal policy more than doubles EV market share, generates over $45 billion in annual welfare gains, and avoids approximately 95 million tons of lifetime CO2 emissions. A key mechanism underlying these results is the pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices, which depends critically on demand curvature, product substitution, and market structure. More broadly, our results suggest that effective industrial policy requires careful attention to market structure and country-specific conditions, balancing consumer, producer, fiscal, and environmental objectives rather than adhering to ideological prescriptions.

Journal Articles

The Health Care Cost of Air Pollution: Evidence from the World’s Largest Payment Network

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2026