Stanford University

Policy Analysis

Democratic Transition and Development in the Arab World

The third ARD annual conference examineي the challenges, key issues, and ways forward for social and economic development in the Arab world during this period of democratic transition. 

Day One - April 26, 2012

9:15-10:45am       Opening Panel – International & Domestic Frameworks for                                       Development

 

Welcoming Remarks: Larry Diamond and Lina Khatib, Stanford University

 

George Kossaifi, Dar Al-Tanmiyah:

Towards an Integrated Social Policy of the Arab Youth

10:45-11:00am Break

11:00-12:30am     Session 1: Political Economy of Reform

 

Chair: Hicham Ben Abdallah, Stanford University

Mongi Boughzala, University of Tunis El-Manar:

Economic Reforms in Egypt and Tunisia: Revolutionary Change and an Uncertain Agenda

Abdulwahab Alkebsi, Center for International Private Enterprise:

Answering Calls for Economic Dignity 

12:30-1:30pm Lunch

1:30-3:00pm         Session 2: Oil-Dependent Economies and Social and Political                                     Development

 

Chair: Larry Diamond, Stanford University

Hedi Larbi, World Bank:

Development and Democracy in Transition Oil-rich Countries in MENA

Ibrahim Saif, Carnegie Middle East Center:

Lessons from the Gulf's Twin Shocks

3:00-3:30pm Break

3:30-5:00pm         Session 3: Youth, ICTs, and Development Opportunities

 

Chair: Ayca Alemdaroglu, Stanford University

Loubna Skalli-Hanna, American University:

Youth and ICTs in MENA: Development Alternatives and Possibilities

Hatoon Ajwad Al-Fassi, King Saud University:

Social Media in Saudi Arabia, an era of youth social representation

 

Day Two - April 27, 2012

9:00-10:30am             Session 1: Civil Society Development

 

Chair: Sean Yom, Temple University

Laryssa Chomiak, Centre d’Etudes Maghrebines à Tunis (CEMAT):

Civic Resistance to Civil Society: Institutionalizing Dissent in Post-Revolutionary Tunisia

Rihab Elhaj, New Libya Foundation:

Building Libyan Civil Society 

10:30-11:00am Break

11:00-12:30pm           Session 2: Democratic Transition and the Political                                                     Development of Women

 

Chair: Katie Zoglin, Human Rights Lawyer 

Valentine Moghadam, Northeastern University:

The Gender of Democracy: Why It Matters

Amaney Jamal, Princeton University:

Reforms in Personal Status Laws and Women’s Rights in the Arab World

12:30-1:30pm Lunch

1:30-3:00pm               Session 3: Minority Rights as a Key Component of                                                       Development

 

Chair: Lina Khatib, Stanford University

Mona Makram-Ebeid, American University in Cairo:

Challenges Facing Minority Rights in Democratic Transition (title TBC)

Nadim Shehadi, Chatham House:

The Other Turkish Model: Power Sharing and Minority Rights in the Arab Transitions 

3:00-3:30pm Break

3:30-4:45pm               Session 4: Towards Integrated Development in the Arab                                           World

 

Chair: Larry Diamond, Stanford University 

Closing roundtable discussion: Scenarios for integrated development

 

4:45-5:45pm Reception

 



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CDDRL Conferences

Emerging Land Issues in African Agriculture: Implications for food security and poverty reduction strategies

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Despite the fact that sub-Saharan Africa in 2012 contains much of the world’s unutilized and underutilized arable land, a significant and growing share of Africa’s farm households live in densely populated areas. Based on two alternative spatial databases capable of estimating populations at the level of one square kilometer and distinguishing between arable and non-arable land, we find that in at least five of the 10 countries analyzed, 25 percent of the rural population resides in areas exceeding 500 persons per square kilometer, estimated by secondary sources as an indicative maximum carrying capacity for areas of rain-fed agriculture in the region. The apparent paradox of a large proportion of Africa’s rural population living in densely populated conditions amidst a situation of massive unutilized land is resolved when the unit of observation is changed from land units to people.

A review of nationally representative farm surveys shows a tendency of (1) declining mean farm size over time within densely populated smallholder farming areas; (2) great disparities in landholding size within smallholder farming areas, leading to highly concentrated and skewed patterns of farm production and marketed surplus; (3) half or more of rural farm households are either buyers of grain or go hungry because they are too poor to afford to buy food; most households in this category control less than one hectare of land; and (4) a high proportion of farmers in densely populated areas perceive that it is not possible for them to acquire more land through customary land allocation procedures, even in areas where a significant portion of land appears to be unutilized.

Ironically, there has been little recognition of the potential challenges associated with increasingly densely populated and land-constrained areas of rural Africa, despite the fact that a sizeable and increasing share of its rural population live in such areas. Inadequate access to land and inability to exploit available unutilized land are issues that almost never feature in national development plans or poverty reduction strategies. In fact, since the rise of world food prices after the mid-2000s, many African governments have made concerted efforts to transfer land out of customary tenure systems (where the majority of rural people reside) to the state or to private individuals who, it is argued, can more effectively exploit the productive potential of the land to meet national food security objectives. Such efforts have nurtured the growth of a relatively well-capitalized class of “emergent” African farmers. The growing focus on how best to exploit unutilized land in Africa has arguably diverted attention from the more central and enduring challenge of implementing agricultural development strategies that effectively address the continent’s massive rural poverty and food insecurity problems, which require recognizing the growing land constraints faced by much of its still agrarian-based population. The final section of the paper considers research and policy options for addressing these problems.

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The 2012 Taiwan Elections: What Happened and Why?

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Abstract:

The 2012 Republic of China presidential and legislative elections to be held on January 14th mark the fifth presidential and seventh national legislative direct elections in Taiwan. Incumbent ROC President Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT) enjoyed a landslide victory in 2008 over Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Hsieh Chang-ting, winning by over 2.2 million votes. Subsequent revelations of corruption by former President Chen Shui-bian of the DPP and various members of his administration further damaged the DPP's public image and electoral prospects.

In the intervening years, however, current DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen and other members of the DPP have worked to revitalize their party's image, and as chairperson of the DPP Tsai established a special internal investigative committee to root out corruption in the party. A potentially complicating new factor in the race is the first-ever presidential bid by the People's First Party (PFP), led by candidate James Soong. Polling results to date have indicated the potential for a very close race between Ma and Tsai, with Soong also pulling a substantial portion of the vote that may affect the electoral outcome.

On the legislative side, the KMT won 81 out of 113 total seats in the Legislative Yuan in the 2008 elections, a circumstance that has facilitated the passage of various controversial measures supported by the Ma administration, including in particular the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with mainland China, and a significant shift in the composition of this body is likely to have a pronounced impact.

Regardless of the outcome, the results of the 2012 elections promise to offer much insight into the popular attitudes of the Taiwanese people and the prospects for future democratic consolidation and development in Taiwan. Ten days following the elections, Professors Shelly Rigger and Eric Chen-hua Yu will join us for a panel discussion to analyze the outcomes of these elections and discuss their relevance to the US and the world.

Speaker Bios:

Shelley Rigger is the Brown Professor of East Asian Politics and Chair of Political Science at Davidson College in Davidson, North Carolina. She has a PhD in Government from Harvard University and a BA in Public and International Affairs from Princeton University. She has been a visiting researcher at National Chengchi University in Taiwan (2005) and a visiting professor at Fudan University in Shanghai (2006). Rigger is the author of two books on Taiwan’s domestic politics, Politics in Taiwan: Voting for Democracy (Routledge 1999) and From Opposition to Power: Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party(Lynne Rienner Publishers 2001). In 2011 she published Why Taiwan Matters: Small Island, Global Powerhouse, a book for general readers. She has published articles on Taiwan’s domestic politics, the national identity issue in Taiwan-China relations and related topics. Her current research studies the effects of cross-strait economic interactions on Taiwan and Mainland China. Her monograph, “Taiwan’s Rising Rationalism: Generations, Politics and ‘Taiwan Nationalism’” was published by the East West Center in Washington in November 2006.

Eric Chen-hua Yu is an assistant research fellow of the Election Study Center and

jointly appointed as an assistant professor of political science at National Chengchi University in Taiwan. Before he returned to Taiwan to serve in his Alma mater in 2009, he has been a research fellow and program manager of Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies since 2006. His research interests include public opinion, electoral politics, quantitative methods, and American politics. He also participates in a number of joint survey projects such as Taiwan Election and Democratization Studies (TEDS) and World Value Survey. Yu recently published academic articles on Taiwan’s domestic politics in Taiwan Political Science Review, Journal of Electoral Studies, Review of Social Sciences, and Japanese Journal of Electoral Studies. Yu received a MS (2000) in Public Policy Analysis from the University of Rochester, and a Ph.D. in political science (2006) from Columbia University.

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CISAC Conference Room

Shelly Rigger Professor of East Asian Politics and Chair of Political Science Speaker Davidson College

Eric Chen-hua Yu

616 Serra St.
Encina Hall
Stanford, CA 94305

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Eric Yu was a research fellow and program manager for the Democracy in Taiwan program at CDDRL. His research interests included public opinion, electoral politics, federalism, and quantitative methods. He worked with Election Study Center at National Chengchi University (Taiwan) on a multi-year research project examining the relationship between public opinion and policy output at the local level in Taiwan. This project aimed to explore the extent to which local policy-makings respond to public opinions across a variety of policy dimensions. His recent studies also include the development of Taiwanese public attitudes toward cross-strait relations, the emergence of the third force under the new "single-district, two-ballot" electoral system for Taiwan's legislative elections, and mass policy preferences and their implications for political parties in Taiwan.

Yu received a BA (1995) in Political Science from the National Chengchi University in Taiwan, a MS (2000) in Public Policy Analysis from the University of Rochester, and a Ph.D. (2006) in Political Science from Columbia University.

Research Fellow and Program Manager for the Democracy in Taiwan Program
Eric Chen-hua Yu Assistant Research Fellow and Assistant Professor of Political Science Speaker Election Study Center; National Chengchi University
Panel Discussions

Mobile Phones and Economic Development in Africa: Evidence from Policy and Field Experiments

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Abstract

Mobile phone coverage and adoption has grown substantially over the past decade, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa. In the absence of public goods infrastructure in many countries, mobile phone technology has the potential to reduce communication and transaction costs and improve access to information, goods and services, particularly for remote rural populations. Research suggests that mobile phone coverage has had positive impacts on agricultural and labor market efficiency in certain countries, but empirical microeconomic evidence is still limited. This paper presents the results of several mobile phone-related field experiments in sub-Saharan Africa, whereby mobile phones have been used for learning, money transfers and civic education programs. These experiments suggest that mobile phone technology can result in reductions in communication and transaction costs, as well as welfare gains, in particular contexts. Nevertheless, mobile phone technology cannot serve as the “silver bullet” for development, and careful impact evaluations of mobile phone development projects are required. In addition, mobile phone technology must work in partnership with other public good provision and investment to achieve optimal development outcomes. 

Speaker Bio:

Jenny C. Aker is an assistant professor of economics at the Fletcher School and department of economics at Tufts University. She is also a non-resident fellow at the Center for Global Development and a member of the Advisory Board for Frontline SMS.

After working for Catholic Relief Services as Deputy Regional Director in West and Central Africa between 1998 and 2003, Jenny returned to complete her PhD in agricultural economics at the University of California-Berkeley. Jenny works on economic development in Africa, with a primary focus on the impact of information and information technology on development outcomes, particularly in the areas of agriculture, agricultural marketing and education; the relationship between shocks and agricultural food market performance; the determinants of agricultural technology adoption; and impact evaluations of NGO and World Bank projects. Jenny has conducted field work in many countries in West and Central Africa, including Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, DRC, The Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Sudan, as well as Haiti and Guatemala.

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Jenny Aker Assistant Professor of Economics Speaker Tufts University
Seminars

Forum Choice for Terrorism Suspects

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Aziz Huq earned his BA summa cum laude in International Studies and French from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in 1996 and his law degree from Columbia Law School in 2001, where he was awarded the John Ordronaux Prize. He clerked for Judge Robert D. Sack of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit (2001–02) and Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg of the Supreme Court of the United States (2003–04). After clerking he worked as Associate Counsel and then Director of the Liberty and National Security Project of the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law. He has also been a Senior Consultant Analyst for the International Crisis Group.

His research and teaching interests include constitutional law, national security and counterterrorism, federal jurisdiction, legislation, human rights, and comparative constitutional law.


Abstract

What forum should be employed to adjudicate the status of persons suspected of involvement in terrorism? Recent clashes between Congress and the President as to whether the status of terrorism suspects should be determined via Article III criminal process or military commissions have revived debate on this venue question. The problem is typically framed as a simple matter of law on the assumption that existing statutory and doctrinal rules already furnish dispositive guidance for sorting suspects between civilian and military venues. This article takes issue with that assumption. It argues that the choice of forum question can more profitably be understood as a problem of institutional design rather than a choice of law puzzle. A key institutional design decision that to date has been ignored is whether or when to create jurisdictional redundancy: When, that is, should overlapping jurisdictions vest the government with a choice of forums or an option to retry a suspect acquitted in an initial process? Such redundancy is currently pervasive. But conventional wisdom suggests that it both risks abuse and is needlessly costly. This Article demonstrates that jurisdictional redundancy has complex direct and indirect effects on the accuracy and cost of terrorism-related adjudication. It presents a comprehensive framework for analyzing jurisdictional redundancy by exploring how the latter influences error rates, system maintenance costs, externalities, information production, and incentives. Applying that framework, I suggest the current status quo of pervasive redundancy has surprising merit in contrast to two leading reform proposals.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Aziz Huq Assistant Professor of Law, The University of Chicago Law School Speaker
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Regional Integration and Agricultural Trade Policy

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Preferential Trade Agreement Policies for Development: A Handbook, The World Bank
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The WTO Agricultural Modalities Proposals and their Impact on Domestic Support in the EU and the US

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The Doha Development Agenda, World Bank: Washington D.C.
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The European Union

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WTO Disciplines on Agricultural Support: Seeking a Fair Basis for Trade. Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press
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WTO Disciplines on Agricultural Support: Seeking a Fair Basis for Trade

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Stanford's McFaul is next ambassador to Russia

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Michael A. McFaul, a Stanford political science professor and senior fellow at the university’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, was confirmed by the Senate to be the next ambassador to Russia. 

McFaul, President Barack Obama’s top advisor on Russia and a Bing Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, will succeed John Beyrle.

"Mike will bring to his new posting in Moscow the same intensity, clarity of vision and imagination that he demonstrated as President Obama's point person on Russia at the White House," said Coit D. Blacker, FSI’s director and the Olivier Nomellini Professor in International Studies. 

The Dec. 17 voice vote confirming McFaul came on the last day the Senate was in session before its winter break. Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., had held up McFaul's approval over issues with U.S. policies toward Russia.

During confirmation hearings before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in October, McFaul discussed the overall status of U.S.-Russian relations, missile defense, arms reduction agreements and trade relations.

Since the beginning of the Obama administration, McFaul has been the special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Russia and Eurasia at the National Security Council.

He served as senior adviser on Russia and Eurasia to Obama during the presidential campaign and continued to advise on foreign policy issues during the transition.

The Obama administration has achieved new momentum in relations with Russia with McFaul's involvement.

The two countries have signed the New Start arms control treaty, which calls for significant cuts in nuclear arsenals; finalized a civilian nuclear cooperation pact; forged agreement on tougher sanctions on Iran; and expanded the supply route to Afghanistan through the territory of the former Soviet Union.

The two powers now turn to the efforts to forge cooperation on missile defense in Europe and to gain Russia's admission to the World Trade Organization, as well as the challenges posed by Iran and Libya.

"This is a complex and sensitive time in the ever-evolving relationship between the United States and the Russian Federation," Blacker said. "Having an ambassador in place who gets the relationship has never been more important. For this reason above all others, Mike is the perfect choice. We are all deeply proud of Mike and all that he has accomplished."

McFaul, who has served as FSI’s deputy director and director of the institute’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, received a bachelor’s degree in international relations and Slavic languages and an master’s in Slavic and East European studies from Stanford in 1986. He was awarded a Rhodes Scholarship to Oxford, where he completed his PhD in international relations in 1991.

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