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Nensi Hayotsyan
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In a CDDRL research seminar held on February 19, 2026, Oliver Kaplan, visiting scholar at CDDRL and Associate Professor at the University of Denver, presented a collaborative project on labor market discrimination against ex-combatants in Colombia. The study explores how prevalent hiring discrimination is against ex-combatants in the formal job market and whether this bias can be reduced. To highlight the significance of this issue, Kaplan emphasized the central role employment plays in reintegration, explaining that it is not only about income and individual well-being, but also about preventing recidivism, which is critical to long-term democratic stability and the rule of law. 

As Kaplan argues, stigma can play a major role in shaping hiring outcomes, as employers may associate ex-combatants with violence, instability, or unreliability, impacting the hiring process. Hence, the research tests whether ex-combatants face an employment penalty relative to non-ex-combatants. The study also examines whether conflict victims face similar bias and whether applicants who were both ex-combatants and victims experience different outcomes, since victim status could either reinforce stigma or generate sympathy and improve hiring chances. Finally, the study aims to identify practical ways to mitigate discrimination through education and skills training beyond high school, participation in reconciliation or peacebuilding activities, and the presence of employer tax incentives.

Kaplan and colleagues implemented a field experiment, partnering with Columbia’s reintegration agency to work with eight former combatants who applied to jobs using different versions of their resumes. The key treatment was selectively including or withholding information such as reintegration status, education, training, or reconciliation experience. This allowed the researchers to see how employers respond to different signals without faking information or using false identities. Applications were submitted through major online job platforms, and employer responses, including interview invitations, requests for additional information, and job offers, were tracked through calls, messages, and emails.  

Kaplan concluded by emphasizing the potential policy implications of these findings, explaining that improving access to employment through training and employer incentives might strengthen reintegration and reduce barriers faced by ex-combatants. Ultimately, Kaplan stressed that employment is not just an economic issue, but a key component of long-term peacebuilding, as access to stable jobs reduces the likelihood that ex-combatants return to conflict and helps sustain democratic stability.

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Laia Balcells presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on March 5, 2026.
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Do Transitional Justice Museums Change Minds?

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Adrienne LeBas presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on February 27, 2026.
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Social Intermediaries and Statebuilding

Adrienne LeBas explores whether social intermediaries with strong state capacity can help build tax revenue.
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Oliver Kaplan presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on February 19, 2026.
Oliver Kaplan presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on February 19, 2026.
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CDDRL Visiting Scholar Oliver Kaplan explores how stigma shapes hiring decisions for ex-combatants in Colombia and identifies ways education, reconciliation efforts, and employer incentives can reduce discrimination.

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  • At a CDDRL research seminar, Visiting Scholar Oliver Kaplan examined how stigma shapes employers’ hiring decisions for former combatants in Colombia.
  • A field experiment with Colombia’s reintegration agency tested how signals like education, training, and reconciliation experience affect employer responses.
  • The research suggests that education, participation in peacebuilding, and employer incentives could reduce discrimination and strengthen post-conflict reintegration.
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THE QUESTION

On 22 February 2026, Mexican security forces neutralized and killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (El Mencho), founder and leader of the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG). Within hours, more than 370 violent incidents erupted in 25 states: narco-blockades, arson attacks on OXXO stores and Bancos del Bienestar, and direct ambushes of Guardia Nacional units that killed at least 25 officers. Some observers compared the violence to a nationwide civil war insurgency. The data and its analysis tell a more qualified story.

WHAT THE DATA SHOWS

Using two independent georeferenced incident datasets — DataInt (251 records) and Aliado/Alephri (138 records), merged and deduplicated to 370 events — we mapped the timing, geography, and severity of every reported incident and asked whether the pattern looks like a coordinated national campaign or something else entirely.

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What the CJNG Response to El Mencho's Death Reveals About Cartel Organisational Capacity

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Alberto Díaz-Cayeros
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Authors Ruixue Jia and Hongbin Li join podcast host Peter Lorentzen to discuss their new book, The Highest Exam: How the Gaokao Shapes China. The book offers a detailed, research-driven look at the gaokao — China's high-stakes college entrance exam that determines university placement for millions of students each year.

Peter Lorentzen, a former SCCEI Visiting Scholar and economics professor at the University of San Francisco, hosts the New Books Network podcast. In this episode, he speaks with Jia and Li about their findings and what the gaokao reveals about education, opportunity, and society in China

Listen on online or download on Spotify. 

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The Highest Exam: How the Gaokao Shapes China

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Authors Hongbin Li and Ruixue Jia sit down with podcast host Peter Lorentzen to discuss their new book The Highest Exam on the New Books Network Podcast.

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Noa Ronkin
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Japan’s first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, began her tenure with strong approval ratings. Yet rising tensions with China over her recent comments about Taiwan and doubts over her government's newly unveiled stimulus package now loom large. Kiyoteru Tsutsui, the director of APARC and our Japan Program, assesses Takaichi's first month in office and what to watch for next. Get his full analysis in our APARC Briefing:

APARC Briefing is a new format we are experimenting with to provide concise, evidence-based analysis of fast-moving developments in Asian affairs. To stay up to date on future installments in this new video series, subscribe to APARC's YouTube channel.

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Prime Minister Takaichi speaks in front of reporters during her first press conference as prime minister at the Prime Minister's Residence on 21 October 2025.
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What to Know About Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s First Female Prime Minister, and Her Agenda

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Reassessing the Rule of Law: How Legal Modernization Can Lead to Authoritarianism

Weitseng Chen of the National University of Singapore explores how legal modernization can entrench rather than erode authoritarian power, an unexpected result of a legal mechanism that underpins functioning democracies.
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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers remarks while seated in front of the Japanese flag.
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Stanford sociologist Kiyoteru Tsutsui, director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Japan Program, evaluates Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's first month in office.

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Lecturer, Political Science
Associate Director of the Capstone Program, Political Science
Affiliated scholar, CDDRL
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Simone Paci is a lecturer in Political Science at Stanford University. His research focuses on political economy across public policy domains. His three main areas of interest include taxation, AI, and gender politics.

Simone's research has been published in the American Journal of Political Science, PS: Political Science & Politics, the UN WIDER Working Paper Series, and the Journal of Interdisciplinary History.

Before Stanford, Simone held a Postdoctoral Research Associate position at Princeton University. Simone received a PhD in Political Science from Columbia University and a BA in Political Science and Economics from Yale University.

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Heather Rahimi
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Hanming Fang presents in front of slides in a conference room.
Professor Hanming Fang presents on China's industrial policies during a SCCEI seminar. | Xinmin Zhao

At a recent SCCEI Seminar economist Hanming Fang presented a sweeping new analysis of how China’s industrial policies have evolved over the past 20 years. The study, Decoding China’s Industrial Policies, coauthored with Ming Li and Guangli Lu, uses large language models to compile, codify, and analyze nearly 3 million documents to build one of the most detailed databases of industrial policymaking in China to date.

By linking these documents to firm-level administrative data, the researchers provide a comprehensive look at who makes industrial policy, what tools are used, why specific industries are supported, and how those policies play a role in overcapacity in China.
 


Local Governments Drive Most Industrial Policymaking


The data show that roughly 80 percent of industrial policies originate from local governments, including provinces, cities, and counties, while only about 13 percent come from the central government. This pattern highlights the importance of local initiative in shaping China’s industrial landscape.

Over time, however, the researchers find that central influence has grown, with greater policy coordination across different levels of government, especially since the early 2010s.

Policy Tools Evolve as Industries Mature


The study finds that China uses a wide range of tools to carry out its industrial policies, including fiscal subsidies, market access and regulation policies, support technology R&D and adoption, labor policy, and tax incentives, among others. 

The composition of these tools shifts systematically as industries develop.

  • Emerging industries tend to receive entry-oriented support such as subsidies and land incentives.
  • Mature-industry policies more often target R&D, labor and skills development, supply chain coordination, and consumer-side demand stimulation.

This evolution shows a clear pattern in how governments adjust policy instruments over time.

Imitation is Widespread — and Linked to Weaker Results


Many local governments replicate industrial policies from other regions, particularly from cities within the same province. This imitation contributes to policy duplication, inefficient competition, and industrial overcapacity when multiple localities pursue the same sectors or strategies.

Empirically, the study shows that “follower cities” — those that copy policy language or design from others and upper level governments without nuanced local adaptations — experience smaller gains in firm sales, profits, and productivity compared with cities that create original policies. The findings highlight how widespread imitation can dilute the effectiveness of local policy initiatives.

Different Tools Yield Different Firm Outcomes


By linking policy activity to firm-level data, researchers identify how industrial support affects businesses:

  • Industries targeted with supportive policies are more likely to receive subsidies, higher tax deduction rates, and long-term loans.
  • Fiscal and land subsidies are associated with higher rates of firm entry and investment.
  • R&D support, cluster development, and equity investment show stronger correlations with productivity growth.

These findings highlight the diversity of policy instruments and their varied associations with firm performance.

A Comprehensive View of China’s Policy Landscape


Together, the results provide an unprecedented data-driven map of China’s industrial policymaking from 2000 to 2022.

The dataset—covering millions of documents and thousands of firms—offers a new empirical foundation for understanding how industrial policies are designed, implemented, and adapted over time.
 



Professor Hanming Fang is an applied microeconomist with broad theoretical and empirical interests focusing on public economics. His research integrates rigorous modeling with careful data analysis and has focused on the economic analysis of discrimination; insurance markets, particularly life insurance and health insurance; and health care, including Medicare. 

Hanming Fang is Norman C. Grosman Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania. In early 2026, Professor Fang will join the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions as a Skyline Scholar. During his appointment he will participate in a rich spectrum of activities including expert talks and collaborative research efforts.
 


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At a SCCEI Seminar economist Hanming Fang presented a sweeping new analysis of how China’s industrial policies have evolved over the past 20 years. Using LLMs, the researchers compiled, codified, and analyzed nearly 3 million documents to build one of the most detailed databases of industrial policymaking in China to date.

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Why do authoritarian regimes charge political opponents with nonpolitical crimes when they can levy charges directly related to opponents’ political activism? We argue that doing so disguises political repression and undermines the moral authority of opponents, minimizing backlash and mobilization. To test this argument, we conduct a survey experiment, which shows that disguised repression decreases perceptions of dissidents’ morality, decreases people’s willingness to engage in dissent on behalf of the dissident, and increases support for repression of the dissident. We then assess the external validity of the argument by analyzing millions of Chinese social media posts made before and after a large crackdown of vocal government critics in China in 2013. We find that individuals with larger online followings are more likely to be charged with nonpolitical crimes, and those charged with nonpolitical crimes are less likely to receive public sympathy and support.

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The Journal of Politics
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CDDRL Honors Student, 2025-26
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Major: Political Science
Hometown: Naperville, Illinois
Thesis Advisor: Jonathan Rodden

Tentative Thesis Title: Broadband for All: Historical Lessons and International Models for U.S. Internet Policy

Future aspirations post-Stanford: After completing my master's in computer science, I hope to go to law school and work in technology law.

A fun fact about yourself: I started lion dancing when I came to college!

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CDDRL Honors Student, 2025-26
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Major: Psychology & Public Policy (Environmental Economics Concentration)
Hometown:  Atherton, California
Thesis Advisor: Marie-Pierre Ulloa

Tentative Thesis Title: Les Harkis et Les Kabyles: Une Dichotomie de la Guerre ("The Harkis and the Kabyles: A Dichotomy of War")

Future aspirations post-Stanford: Law school and lots of attorney-ing!

A fun fact about yourself: I love playing the piano and played for 8 years when I was younger.

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