As recently as 2007, the United States seemed headed towards ever greater fossil fuel import dependence, as domestic oil and natural gas production dwindled and consumption continued to grow. Five years later, the landscape looks dramatically different. An explosion in natural gas production from shales has overturned paradigms and sparked bold talk of LNG exports. While less remarked-upon, unconventional oil production has followed suit, helping to boost liquids output 20% from 50-year lows and vaulting North Dakota ahead of Alaska to become the nation’s second-largest oil producer. A new order is emerging in the coal market as well, with efforts underway to ship cheap, low-sulfur coal from the western U.S. to China.

The new role for the U.S. as a hotbed of production and technology development for unconventional resources, a reduced import market, and a possible key exporter of natural gas and coal raises a host of political, economic, and environmental questions. The goal of this conference is to contribute to insightful and data-driven dialogue on these pressing (and often politically-charged) issues by bringing together academics, policymakers, industry experts, and other stakeholder groups.

Session topics will include: (1) the environmental and economic impacts of proposed exports of Powder River Basin coal to China; (2) which will happen first: major LNG exports from the U.S. or shale gas development at scale outside of the U.S. (and especially in China); (3) the changing role of the U.S. in the global oil market, and its geopolitical and economic implications; (4) the cases for and against pipelines connecting Canada’s oil sands with U.S. refineries; and (5) the trajectory of future natural gas demand from the U.S. transportation and power sectors.  

Each session will feature a presentation by an academic or industry expert summarizing the state of knowledge on the topic and pointing out major unresolved issues. Discussants from the policymaking and stakeholder communities will then provide their perspectives on the presentation. This will be followed by an opportunity for audience comment and discussion.

Special CISAC Seminar 

Stephen Craig

Recipient of The Firestone Medal for Excellence in Undergraduate Research 

“Tamed Tiger or Restless Beast? German Foreign Policy in the Post-Unification Period”

&

Clay Ramel

Recipient of The William J. Perry Prize 

“Reconsidering the Roots of Crude Coercion: a Policymaking Analysis of “the Oil Weapon””

Presentation given by FSE fellow David Lobell at the Banff International Research Station (BIRS) "Frontiers in the Detection and Attribution of Climate Change" workshop May 28, 2012. The workshop focuses on developing and improving the statistical methodology of detection and attribution of climate change (D&A). Participants seek ways in which human influence on Earth's climate, and the attendant impacts of climate change on human systems, can be more precisely quantified in light of the latest developments in applied statistics, climate modelling, and Earth observations. 

Video link to Lobell's talk: Impacts of climate change on agriculture and opportunities for detection and attribution.

Dramatic improvements and cost reductions in renewable energy technologies have occurred over the past decade and even greater improvements are expected in the years to come. In addition, plentiful unconventional gas resources in North America and potentially broadly around the world provide prospects for a long-term lower carbon-emitting fossil fuel for electricity production and other uses. This optimistic outlook is in stark contrast to the energy situation in developing countries. Even today, several billion people lack access to electricity and clean cooking fuels. Additionally, industries in these developing countries--which are crucial for raising people from poverty, suffer from unreliable electricity and fuel supplies, which dramatically lowers productivity. This talk will first discuss the promising developments in advanced energy technologies and then explore the prospects, challenges and options for addressing energy access in the developing countries.

About the speaker: Sally M. Benson was appointed GCEP Director in January 2009 after holding the Executive Director post since March 2007. A Professor (Research) in the Department of Energy Resources Engineering (ERE) in the School of Earth Sciences, Benson has been a member of Stanford’s faculty since 2007. Her research group in ERE investigates fundamental characteristics of carbon dioxide storage in geologic formations as a means of climate change mitigation. She teaches courses on carbon dioxide capture and storage and greenhouse gas mitigation technologies.

Prior to joining GCEP, Benson worked at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), serving in a number of capacities, including Division Director for Earth Sciences, Associate Laboratory Director for Energy Sciences, and Deputy Director for Operations. Benson graduated from Barnard College at Columbia University in 1977 with a bachelor’s degree in geology. She completed her graduate education in 1988 at the University of California, Berkeley, after receiving master’s and doctoral degrees, both in materials science and mineral engineering.

During a daylong Moving Mountains Symposium a stellar roster of demographers, scientists, economists and activists will attempt to answer the big question about maximum population, and they will also tell us what can be done to ensure we live in a tenable world, one in which solitude is not extirpated. They will touch on subjects like water tables, food security, women's education, immigration, and human longevity.

FSE director Roz Naylor will address the challenges of feeding the growing world. Other participants include Stanford's Paul Ehrlich, author of “The Population Bomb” and long-time leading voice on the population issue, who will talk about what will happen when the population bomb explodes.