Environment

FSI scholars approach their research on the environment from regulatory, economic and societal angles. The Center on Food Security and the Environment weighs the connection between climate change and agriculture; the impact of biofuel expansion on land and food supply; how to increase crop yields without expanding agricultural lands; and the trends in aquaculture. FSE’s research spans the globe – from the potential of smallholder irrigation to reduce hunger and improve development in sub-Saharan Africa to the devastation of drought on Iowa farms. David Lobell, a senior fellow at FSI and a recipient of a MacArthur “genius” grant, has looked at the impacts of increasing wheat and corn crops in Africa, South Asia, Mexico and the United States; and has studied the effects of extreme heat on the world’s staple crops.

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Ambassador Eva Nowotny is the official representative of the Republic of Austria in the United States and is responsible for all aspects of the relationship between the two countries. On December 04, 2003 she presented her credentials to President George W. Bush at the White House. She is also Permanent Representative of the Observer Mission of Austria to the Organization of American States (OAS) and Ambassador to the Commonwealth of the Bahamas.

Cosponsored by the Consulate General of Austria, Los Angeles http://www.austria.org

 

Audio Synopsis:

In this presentation, Ambassador Nowotny offers her thoughts on Austria's recent six month presidency of the European Union, which she points out has fostered an increase in positive attitudes toward the EU on behalf of Austrian citizens. While 2005 was a difficult year for the EU in light of the French and Dutch rejections of the latest treaty and disagreement about enlargement policy especially with respect to Turkey, the Austrian presidency has "reestablished a cooperative climate" and a degree of optimism to the European Union. Several unexpected events early in Austria's presidency presented challenges, including Russia's decision to stop the flow of Gazprom gas to Ukraine, the Maoist uprising in Nepal, and Iran's declaration that it would continue developing nuclear weapons. Austria used these challenges as an opportunity to reinvigorate discussion of foreign policy and negotiate a coherent EU response to international conflicts. 

The ambassador then highlights key issues dominating Austria's presidency. These include the debate over the future of Europe, centering on the constitutional treaty and enlargement; the internal development of the European project, especially fostering economic competitiveness and addressing crime and terrorism; and the role of Europe in the world, where Austria has contributed strongly by helping to resolve conflicts like those in the Balkans, and helping to develop Europe's "neighborhood policy." 

Finally, Ambassador Nowotny emphasizes the importance of the transatlantic relationship, which she feels the US and Europe attach equal weight to. Key areas of cooperation in years to come will include resolving international conflicts and dealing with crises, fostering the transatlantic economic partnership, improving international governance structures, and combatting terrorism.

A discussion session following the presentation raised such questions as: Where are there differences between the interests of Austria and of the European Union? In a post-9/11 world, do we have the institutional structure necessary to deal with new issues such as terrorism, and can we rely on those left over from WWII (NATO, OSCE, etc.)? Does Austria approach Southern and Eastern European countries as one group or does it prefer to deal with them individually?

CISAC Conference Room

Eva Nowotny Austrian Ambassador to the United States Speaker
Lectures
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The history of groundwater in China is one of extremes, or apparent extremes. Before the 1960s, the story was one of neglect; only a small fraction of China's water supply came from groundwater (Nickum, 1988). Almost none of the Ministry of Water Resource's investment funds were allocated to the groundwater sector until the late 1960s. Certainly, to the extent that underground water resources were valuable, China was ignoring a valuable resource. Since the mid-1970s, however, the prominence of the groundwater sector has risen dramatically. Over the last 30 years, agricultural producers, factory managers and city officials, far from ignoring groundwater resources, have entered an era of exploitation (Smil, 1993; Brown and Halweil, 1998). Arguably, there have been more tube wells sunk in China over the last quarter century than anywhere else in the world. As a share of total water supply, ground water has risen from a negligible amount across most of China to being a primary source of water for agriculture, industry and domestic use in many of the nation's most productive regions. Unfortunately, the resulting fall in groundwater tables has been one of China's most serious environmental problems.

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Chapter in The Development, Challenges and Management of Groundwater in Rural China. Groundwater in Developing World Agriculture: Past, Present and Options for a Sustainable Future, Edited by Mark Giordano and Tushaar Shah, International Water Manage
Authors
Scott Rozelle

From an unprecedented number of start-ups to a rising class of billion-dollar giants going global, high technology companies in China have a dramatically increasing need for effective leadership. Since 1999, founders have led 24 Chinese firms to IPOs on NASDAQ, ranging from portals such as Sina and AsiaInfo in 2000 to mobile hardware makers and service providers like Hurray!, Vimicro, and Techfaith in 2005.

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Scott D. Sagan
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Given Tehran's defiant response to the European and American effort to constrain its nuclear program, it is time for bolder diplomacy out of Washington. U.S. President George W. Bush should take a page from the playbook of Ronald Reagan, who negotiated with an evil Soviet regime--competing in the war of ideas, but addressing the enemy's security concerns through arms-control agreements.

Iran's intransigence is both deeply unfortunate and perfectly predictable. It is unfortunate because Tehran's refusal to suspend its uranium-enrichment operations immediately--as demanded in July by the U.N. Security Council in a legally binding resolution--suggests that Iran is moving more quickly than expected toward a nuclear-weapons capability. Tehran has now turned the nuclear crisis into a test of the whole U.N. Security Council system. And Russia and China's current position, threatening to veto any biting sanctions against Iran, suggests that the Security Council may well fail this crucial test.

Tehran's response is predictable, however, because the offer on the table contains both inadequate economic carrots and barely credible threats of sanctions and military force. The carrots appeared impressive at first glance--in return for a suspension of enrichment we reportedly promised to provide light-water nuclear reactors and to help Iran with civil aviation and telecommunications technology. But we did not offer the one incentive that might possibly work, security guarantees that could reduce Iran's desire for nuclear weapons.

This omission is striking. The Iranian government can't talk openly about their security concerns because that would blow their cover story that the nuclear program is only for energy production. And Washington does not want to discuss such worries because it wants to keep open the possibility of removing the regime by force. "Security assurances are not on the table," U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice too cleverly argued this spring: "It is a little strange to talk about security guarantees ... I thought the Iranian position was that they weren't developing a nuclear bomb."

This is partly a crisis of our own making, as the Bush administration has practiced the reverse of Teddy Roosevelt's maxim--speaking loudly and carrying a small stick. Think about how Tehran reacted when Bush stated (in his second Inaugural Address), "The rulers of outlaw regimes can know that we still believe as Abraham Lincoln did: 'Those who deny freedoms to others deserve it not for themselves; and, under the rule of a just God, cannot long retain it." Or when Bush dramatically told reporters last April that "all options are on the table," in direct response to a question about whether he was considering a nuclear attack against Iran. Such statements only encourage Iran to develop a nuclear deterrent quickly, before the United States can carry out its perceived aggressive intent. Last month, Iran's National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani pointedly complained about such rhetoric. "How can a side that wants to topple the regime also attempt to negotiate?"

Given the current vulnerability of U.S. forces in Iraq, the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, and the lack of Israeli success against Hizbullah, Iranian officials seem confident that they face no immediate threat of a U.S. military assault. But they are clearly worried that Bush just might attack Iran right before he leaves office in January 2009, or that his successor might do so once U.S. forces withdraw from Iraq.

The best way to prevent a nuclear Iran is for Washington to offer the kind of security assurances that might reduce support in Tehran for building a nuclear arsenal. It will be hard to make such assurances credible, but a public U.S. promise to take forcible regime change off the table, and a U.N. Security Council commitment to protect the "political sovereignty" of Iran could help. Involving the Security Council could also pull China and Russia back into the nonproliferation coalition and enhance the U.N.'s legitimacy.

There is very little time left, which means negotiations should begin despite Iran's unfortunate opening position. Tehran's response reportedly indicated a willingness to negotiate all aspects of its nuclear program, so working out an agreement for Iran to limit itself to low-level uranium enrichment might still be possible. This would work only if Tehran accepts full IAEA inspections and a freeze on future centrifuge construction. Will they? The one thing that might cause Tehran to do so, and that would compensate for any loss of face, would be an assurance that the United States will not launch another preventive war, as it did in Iraq, to remove the Iranian regime. If in turn we get a nuclear-free Iran, that's a good deal for the West as well.

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Against the backdrop of export-led growth of some economies -- most notably China and India -- human development issues in Asia tend to be overlooked. The 2006 report Trade on Human Terms, produced by the United Nations Development Programme, finds that trade has contributed to further increasing the inequality both between and within countries. In addition, it warns that many of the region's open economies, particularly the East Asian success stories, are creating far fewer jobs, especially for youth and women, and experiencing "jobless growth." Many of the developing countries in the Asia-Pacific are now net importers of agricultural products; food security has thus become an emerging issue.

While Asia and the Pacific have embraced globalization, the regions poor are being left behind and will be so without determined action by governments. The report recommends that those countries adopt bold new policies that harness trade and economic growth, suggesting an "eight-point agenda" that includes investing for competitiveness; adopting strategic trade policies; restoring a focus on agriculture; combating jobless growth; and others.

Dr. Hafiz A. Pasha will discuss the findings and recommendations of this ground-breaking and thoughtful report which can be viewed at:

Asia - Pacific Human Development Report 2006

Dr. Hafiz A. Pasha is UN assistant secretary-general and UNDP assistant administrator and director of the Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific. He has served as the commerce and trade minister, minister for finance and economic affairs, deputy chairman of the Planning Commission, and education minister in three government administrations in Pakistan.

Prior to his government work, Dr. Pasha was the vice chancellor/president of the University of Karachi and dean and director of the Institute of Business Administration in Karachi, Pakistan.

Dr. Pasha has published extensively in the fields of trade, public finance, social development, and poverty reduction. He has an M.A. from Cambridge University and a Ph.D. from Stanford University.

Pasha was recently awarded the Congressional Medal of Achievement by the Philippines Congress in recognition of his work on poverty reduction, achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by the Asia-Pacific countries and his role in leading UNDP's response to the 2004 tsunami tragedy.

Philippines Conference Room

Hafiz A. Pasha UN Assistant Secretary General and Director of the Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific Speaker The United Nations Development Programme
Seminars

The seminar is expected to provide a foundation for a new study examining the role of LNG imports for Brazilian natural gas markets centered at the Instituto Economia (IE) at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ). Meeting attendees included experts from UFRJ, Brazilian state oil and gas company Petrobras, and experts on North American and European natural gas markets. The meeting discussed the operation of the key Atlantic Basin gas markets that will drive the development of future LNG trade, considering the potential role of Brazil in the future market for LNG.

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Encina Hall E419-B
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-1714 (650) 724-1717
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Research Fellow
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Mark H. Hayes was recently a Research Fellow with the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD). He lead PESD's research on global natural gas markets, including studies of the growing trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the future for gas demand growth in China.

Dr. Hayes has developed models to analyze the impact of growing LNG imports on U.S. and European gas markets with special attention to seasonality and the opportunity for arbitrage using LNG ships and regasification capacity. From 2002 to 2005, Dr. Hayes managed the Geopolitics of Natural Gas Project, a study of critical political and financial factors affecting investment in cross-border gas trade projects. The study culminated in an edited book volume published by Cambridge University Press.

Prior to coming to Stanford, Mark worked as a financial analyst at Morgan Stanley in New York City. He was a member of the Global Power and Utilities Group, where he was involved in mergers and acquisitions, financing and corporate restructuring.

In 2006 he completed his Ph.D. in the Interdisciplinary Program on Environment and Resources at Stanford University. After completing his Ph.D. at Stanford, Mark has taken a position at RREEF Infrastructure Investments, San Francisco, CA. Mark also has a B.A. in Geology from Colgate University and an M.A. in International Policy Studies from Stanford. From 1999 to 2002 he served on the Board of Trustees of Colgate University.

Mark Hayes Speaker
Conferences
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An invigorating day of addresses, debate, and discussion of major sources of systemic and human risk facing the global community.

7:30 AMREGISTRATION
8:00 - 9:00 AMBREAKFAST AND WELCOME
John W. Etchemendy, Provost, Stanford University
Coit D. Blacker, Director, Freeman Spogli Institute

OPENING REMARKS
Warren Christopher, 63rd Secretary of State
William J. Perry, 19th Secretary of Defense
George P. Shultz, 60th Secretary of State
9:15 AM - 12:00 PMMORNING SESSION
PLENARY I
Understanding, Measuring, and Coping with Risk: What We Know Coit D. Blacker, Director, Freeman Spogli Institute, Chair
Understanding and Measuring Risk Elisabeth Paté-Cornell
The Collapse of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime? Scott D. Sagan
Keeping Fissile Materials Out of Terrorist Hands Siegfried S. Hecker

CONCURRENT BREAKOUT SESSIONS
Food Security and the Environment Rosamond L. Naylor, Chair
Pandemics, Infectious Diseases, and Bioterrorism Alan M. Garber, Chair
Insurgencies, Failed States, and the Challenge of Governance Jeremy M. Weinstein, Chair
12:30 - 2:00 PMLUNCHEON
Infectious Diseases, Avian Influenza, and Bioterrorism: Risks to the Global Community
Michael T. Osterholm, Director, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, University of Minnesota
2:30 - 5:30 PMAFTERNOON SESSION
PLENARY II
Natural, National, and International Disasters Michael A. McFaul, Deputy Director, FSI and Director, Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, Chair
Terror, U.S. Ports, and Neglect of Critical Infrastructure Stephen E. Flynn
Energy Shocks to the Global System David G. Victor

CONCURRENT BREAKOUT SESSIONS
Responding to a World at Risk: U.S. Efforts at Democracy Promotion in Russia, Iraq, and Iran Michael A. McFaul, Chair
The European Union: Politics, Economics, Terrorism Amir Eshel, Chair
China's Rise: Implications for the World Economy and Energy Markets Thomas C. Heller, Chair
Cross Currents: Nationalism and Regionalism in Northeast Asia Daniel C. Sneider, Chair
6:00 - 8:00 PMCOCKTAIL RECEPTION AND DINNER
Cocktail Reception 6:00 - 7:00 PM
Dinner 7:00 - 8:00 PM
8:00 - 9:00 PMA WORLD AT RISK
Peter Bergen, CNN Terrorism Analyst
Author of Holy War, Inc.: Inside the Secret World of Bin Laden
Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University

Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center

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PESD director David G. Victor testifies to the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources that the U.S.-India nuclear deal currently being debated by Congress could have a large impact on greenhouse gas emissions and be a major step towards engaging developing countries in the fight against climate change.

David Victor shows that by displacing coal-fired electricity generation, the U.S.-India nuclear deal could realize carbon dioxide emission reductions that rival the European Union's efforts under the Kyoto Protocol and far exceed previous efforts to engage developing countries in combating climate change.

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