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FSI scholars approach their research on the environment from regulatory, economic and societal angles. The Center on Food Security and the Environment weighs the connection between climate change and agriculture; the impact of biofuel expansion on land and food supply; how to increase crop yields without expanding agricultural lands; and the trends in aquaculture. FSE’s research spans the globe – from the potential of smallholder irrigation to reduce hunger and improve development in sub-Saharan Africa to the devastation of drought on Iowa farms. David Lobell, a senior fellow at FSI and a recipient of a MacArthur “genius” grant, has looked at the impacts of increasing wheat and corn crops in Africa, South Asia, Mexico and the United States; and has studied the effects of extreme heat on the world’s staple crops.

Tropical Deforestation and Carbon Emissions: Introduction to Special Issue

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Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation have long been recognized as a key component of the global carbon budget, and more recently of our global climate system. Tropical forest clearing accounts for roughly 20% of anthropogenic carbon emissions and destroys globally significant carbon sinks (IPCC 2007). Global climate policy initiatives are now being proposed to address these emissions and to more actively include developing countries in greenhouse gas mitigation (e.g. Santilli et al 2005, Gullison et al 2007). In 2005, at the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Montreal, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) launched a new initiative to assess the scientific and technical methods and issues for developing policy approaches and incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) in developing countries (Gullison et al 2007).

Over the last two years the methods and tools needed to estimate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation have quickly evolved, as the scientific community responded to the UNFCCC policy needs. This focus issue highlights those advancements, covering some of the most important technical issues for measuring and monitoring emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and emphasizing immediately available methods and data, as well as future challenges.

Elements for effective long-term implementation of a REDD mechanism related to both environmental and political concerns are discussed in Mollicone et al. Herold and Johns synthesize viewpoints of national parties to the UNFCCC on REDD and expand upon key issues for linking policy requirements and forest monitoring capabilities. In response to these expressed policy needs, they discuss a remote-sensing-based observation framework to start REDD implementation activities and build historical deforestation databases on the national level. Achard et al offer an assessment of remote sensing measurements across the world's tropical forests that can provide key consistency and prioritization for national-level efforts. Gibbs et al calculate a range of national-level forest carbon stock estimates that can be used immediately, and also review ground-based and remote sensing approaches to estimate national-level tropical carbon stocks with increased accuracy.

These papers help illustrate that methodologies and tools are indeed available to estimate emissions from deforestation. Clearly, important technical challenges remain (e.g. quantifying degradation, assessing uncertainty, verification procedures, capacity building, and Landsat data continuity) but we now have a sufficient technical base to support REDD early actions and readiness mechanisms for building national monitoring systems.

Thus, we enter the COP 13 in Bali, Indonesia with great hope for a more inclusive climate policy encompassing all countries and emissions sources from both land-use and energy sectors. Our understanding of tropical deforestation and carbon emissions is improving and with that, opportunities to conserve tropical forests and the host of ecosystem services they provide while also increasing revenue streams in developing countries through economic incentives to avoid deforestation and degradation.

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Environmental Research Letters
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Holly Gibbs
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Climate change uncertainty for daily minimum and maximum temperatures: A model intercomparison

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Several impacts of climate change may depend more on changes in mean daily minimum (Tmin) or maximum (Tmax) temperatures than daily averages. To evaluate uncertainties in these variables, we compared projections of Tmin and Tmax changes by 2046-2065 for 12 climate models under an A2 emission scenario. Average modeled changes in Tmin were similar to those for Tmax, with slightly greater increases in Tmin consistent with historical trends exhibiting a reduction in diurnal temperature ranges. In contrast, the inter-model variability of Tmin and Tmax projections exhibited substantial differences. For example, inter-model standard deviations of June-August Tmax changes were more than 50% greater than for Tmin throughout much of North America, Europe, and Asia. Model differences in cloud changes, which exert relatively greater influence on Tmax during summer and Tmin during winter, were identified as the main source of uncertainty disparities. These results highlight the importance of considering separately projections for Tmax and Tmin when assessing climate change impacts, even in cases where average projected changes are similar. In addition, impacts that are most sensitive to summertime Tmin or wintertime Tmax may be more predictable than suggested by analyses using only projections of daily average temperatures.

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Geophysical Research Letters
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David Lobell
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China's Harmonious Society: Political Cross Currents in China's Corporate Restructuring

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China's Harmonious Society colloquium series is co-sponsored by the Stanford China Program and the Center for East Asian Studies

Since 2006, the official doctrine of China's Communist Party calls for the creation of a "harmonious society" (HeXieSheHui). This policy, identified with the Hu Jintao leadership, acknowledges the new problems that have emerged as China continues its amazing economic growth. The economy is booming but so are tensions from rising inequality, environmental damage, health problems, diverse ethnicities, and attempts to break the "iron rice bowl." In this series of colloquia, leading authorities will discuss the causes of these tensions, their seriousness, and China's ability to solve these challenges.

Depending on where one stands, China's state-owned enterprises have reformed too slowly or too fast. Some lament the incompleteness of China's efforts to break the "iron rice bowl," to free firms from inefficient industrial practices, to rid firms of non-production expenses. Yet, as incomplete and slow as the reforms seem to some, New Left critics charge that China's reforms have gone too far, that SOEs have been subject to asset stripping, that firms have been "given away," and that the privileged few, particularly factory managers, have become rich capitalists overnight, through corruption and collusion with local officials. The losers in this view are the workers, who have been left unemployed, subject to layoffs, without health care, and sometimes without even their promised pensions-the very problems that prompted Hu Jintao's call for fixes to create a new "harmonious society." These two views of SOE reform, while seeming to convey different realities, reflect the political cross currents that have shaped China's corporate restructuring. Based on recent research in China, Jean Oi will discuss how those charged with reforming SOEs have tried to walk the tightrope between too slow and too fast reform, and the consequences.

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Jean C. Oi

Department of Political Science
Stanford University
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-26044

(650) 723-2843 (650) 725-9401
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William Haas Professor in Chinese Politics
jean_oi_headshot.jpg PhD

Jean C. Oi is the William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics in the department of political science and a Senior Fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. She is the founding director of the Stanford China Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Professor Oi is also the founding Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University.

A PhD in political science from the University of Michigan, Oi first taught at Lehigh University and later in the Department of Government at Harvard University before joining the Stanford faculty in 1997.

Her work focuses on comparative politics, with special expertise on political economy and the process of reform in transitional systems. Oi has written extensively on China's rural politics and political economy. Her State and Peasant in Contemporary China (University of California Press, 1989) examined the core of rural politics in the Mao period—the struggle over the distribution of the grain harvest—and the clientelistic politics that ensued. Her Rural China Takes Off (University of California Press, 1999 and Choice Outstanding Academic Title, 1999) examines the property rights necessary for growth and coined the term “local state corporatism" to describe local-state-led growth that has been the cornerstone of China’s development model. 

She has edited a number of conference volumes on key issues in China’s reforms. The first was Growing Pains: Tensions and Opportunity in China's Transformation (Brookings Institution Press, 2010), co-edited with Scott Rozelle and Xueguang Zhou, which examined the earlier phases of reform. Most recently, she co-edited with Thomas Fingar, Fateful Decisions: Choices That Will Shape China’s Future (Stanford University Press, 2020). The volume examines the difficult choices and tradeoffs that China leaders face after forty years of reform, when the economy has slowed and the population is aging, and with increasing demand for and costs of education, healthcare, elder care, and other social benefits.

Oi also works on the politics of corporate restructuring, with a focus on the incentives and institutional constraints of state actors. She has published three edited volumes related to this topic: one on China, Going Private in China: The Politics of Corporate Restructuring and System Reform (Shorenstein APARC, 2011); one on Korea, co-edited with Byung-Kook Kim and Eun Mee Kim, Adapt, Fragment, Transform: Corporate Restructuring and System Reform in Korea (Shorenstein APARC, 2012); and a third on Japan, Syncretism: The Politics of Economic Restructuring and System Reform in Japan, co-edited with Kenji E. Kushida and Kay Shimizu (Brookings Institution, 2013). Other more recent articles include “Creating Corporate Groups to Strengthen China’s State-Owned Enterprises,” with Zhang Xiaowen, in Kjeld Erik Brodsgard, ed., Globalization and Public Sector Reform in China (Routledge, 2014) and "Unpacking the Patterns of Corporate Restructuring during China's SOE Reform," co-authored with Xiaojun Li, Economic and Political Studies, Vol. 6, No. 2, 2018.

Oi continues her research on rural finance and local governance in China. She has done collaborative work with scholars in China, including conducting fieldwork on the organization of rural communities, the provision of public goods, and the fiscal pressures of rapid urbanization. This research is brought together in a co-edited volume, Challenges in the Process of China’s Urbanization (Brookings Institution Shorenstein APARC Series, 2017), with Karen Eggleston and Wang Yiming. Included in this volume is her “Institutional Challenges in Providing Affordable Housing in the People’s Republic of China,” with Niny Khor. 

As a member of the research team who began studying in the late 1980s one county in China, Oi with Steven Goldstein provides a window on China’s dramatic change over the decades in Zouping Revisited: Adaptive Governance in a Chinese County (Stanford University Press, 2018). This volume assesses the later phases of reform and asks how this rural county has been able to manage governance with seemingly unchanged political institutions when the economy and society have transformed beyond recognition. The findings reveal a process of adaptive governance and institutional agility in the way that institutions actually operate, even as their outward appearances remain seemingly unchanged.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative

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Fiscal Politics and Central-Local Relations in China

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Structural Change in China

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Director of the China Program
Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University
Faculty Affiliate at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
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Jean C. Oi William Haas Professor in Chinese Politics, Professor of Political Science, Senior Fellow at FSI, and Director, Stanford China Program Speaker Stanford University
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Energy, Environment, Security: Can We Have It All?

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Drell Lecture Recording: NA

 

Drell Lecture Transcript: 

 

Speaker's Biography: Steven E. Koonin has served as chief scientist of BP, the world's second largest independent oil company, since 2004. As chief scientist, Koonin is responsible for BP's long-range technology plans and activities, particularly those "beyond petroleum." He also has purview over BP's major university research programs around the world and provides technical advice to the company's senior executives. In 1975, he joined the faculty of Caltech, became a full professor in 1981, and served as provost from 1995 to 2004.

Koonin is a fellow of the American Physical Society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, as well as a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commission. He has served on numerous advisory bodies for the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the Department of Energy and its various national laboratories. His research interests have included theoretical nuclear, many-body, and computational physics, nuclear astrophysics, and global environmental science. Koonin received his B.S. in physics at Caltech and his Ph.D. in theoretical physics from M.I.T.

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PDVSA case study released

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Since 2002, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has dramatically reshaped the national oil company, PDVSA, to align it with his goals. PESD researcher David Hults probes current-day PDVSA through three lenses: as a large and growing source of government income, as an instrument of state objectives, and on the merits of its business plan.
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Statistical measurements of National Oil Companies

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State-owned ("national") oil companies, or NOCs, now control the vast majority of world oil and gas reserves. PESD research fellow Nadejda Victor's statistical analysis of NOC performance and strategy as compared with international oil companies suggests that "Who" controls the oil can be a more important question than "How Much" oil there is.
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Oil, Islam, and Women?

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Michael Ross received his Ph.D. in Politics from Princeton University in 1996. From 1996 to 2001 he was an Assistant Professor in the Political Science Department at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. He spent the 2000 calendar year as a Visiting Scholar at the World Bank in Washington, D.C., and Jakarta, Indonesia. He is now an Associate Professor of Political Science at UCLA; and also the Chairman of the International Development Studies program, and Acting Director of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies.

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Michael Ross Associate Professor of Political Science Speaker University of California, Los Angeles
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Kosovo: The End of Yugoslavia's Disintegration or The Spark of New Conflict?

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Mr. Biberaj and Mr. Kesic both examine the issue of Kosovan independence from different persepectives. Mr. Biberaj explains why he believes that supervised independence is the only way forward. Mr. Kesic, on the other hand, expresses concern at how this decision is being made.

Synopsis

Mr. Biberaj argues that if Kosovo is not to remain part of Serbia, then it has only two options. The first is a continuation of the status quo, which Mr. Biberaj feels is untenable. The second is supervised independence. Mr. Biberaj believes that this is a defining moment for the Balkans, and the region needs to move on from this issue. He argues that danger of renewed violence is exaggerated primarily because there is now a different situation and NATO peacekeeping forces are on the ground. Although a transition will not be easy, Mr. Biberaj feels that it will be manageable due to the widespread support this move has from the US and many European states. In addition, Mr. Biberaj argues that Russia and Serbia are powerless to do anything about the move.

What is crucial, however, is that Kosovo must rapidly look to the challenges ahead. Its government, which will be a coalition, must reach out to the Serb community, create a secure environment, and battle corruption and economic difficulties. Although Mr. Biberaj argues military confrontation must not be ruled out, to him, the general situation is relatively stable. Addressing religion, Mr. Biberaj explains that Serbian Islamists are self-assured and moderate and do not pose a serious threat in Serbia and Kosovo. Most importantly, Mr. Biberaj stresses that this is perhaps the last opportunity to peacefully solve this Albanian-Serb conflict without partitioning Serbia. He explains that the Serbs will eventually learn to live with Kosovo’s independence but also emphasizes the US must stay until “business is finished.”

Citing the withdrawal of troops in particular, Mr. Kesic argues, on the other hand , that Kosovo is an example of failed US diplomacy. It was taken for granted that Russia and Serbia would reluctantly accept the US and European states’ approach to the Kosovan problem, and the issue was dealt with too much as a vacuum, not taking into account neighboring players. Moreover, Mr. Kesic feels that the whole process has left Serbia no reason to trust the US and the European states involved. NATO has not fulfilled its promise of protecting minorities, the US is still not satisfied with Serbia even after it has gotten rid of Milosevic, and Kosovo is being treated as an exception to the territorial integrity principle employed for dividing up former Yugoslavia. Mr. Kesic argues that if the decision of Kosovan independence is made through continuing this same diplomatic process then instability will follow. Furthermore, supervised independence with protection by NATO is a selective interpretation of a UN resolution. Mr. Kesic believes such interpretations create chaos, make bypassing diplomacy the norm, and undermine UN peacekeeping efforts. In addition, what is the point of establishing democracy in Serbia if the international community treats it in the same humiliating way as it did Serbia’s previous regime? To Mr. Kesic, we must also continue to take seriously issues that could lead to war, such as tensions between Albanians and Serbs in Kosovo itself. Finally, Mr. Kesic concludes by arguing that the EU’s common foreign policy is really what is being “put on the line.”

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Elez Biberaj is a 27-year veteran of the Voice of America. As division director, he brings to bear considerable radio and television broadcasting experience and Eurasian market knowledge in planning, directing, and developing VOA's multimedia programming in Russian, Ukrainian, Albanian, Bosnian, Croatian, Greek, Macedonian, and Serbian. Dr. Biberaj joined VOA's Albanian Service as an international radio broadcaster in 1980. From 1982 to 1986, he worked in the Press Division of the former U.S. Information Agency as a senior writer/editor, specializing in Soviet and East European Affairs. Dr. Biberaj returned to VOA as Albanian Service Chief in 1986, and, for the next 18 years helped transform the service into one of VOA's most successful broadcasting units. For over a decade, he served in dual capacity as chief of the Albanian Service and director of European Division writers and researchers. In the latter capacity, he directed the work of division writers and researchers, developed broad strategies for providing program material and research, and assigned coverage of events and topics of importance to Eastern Europe, and edited program material for use by division services.

Dr. Biberaj was named the Eurasia Division's managing editor in 2004, became acting director the following year, and was appointed division director in December 2006. In his Eurasia Division managerial positions, Dr. Biberaj helped develop new programming strategies that enabled language services to take advantage of new technologies, improve existing programming formats, and better meet audience demands in a highly competitive media environment. His expertise and knowledge of Eurasian affairs and of U.S. foreign policy objectives have been recognized inside and outside of VOA. On many occasions, he has been invited by the State Department, the National Security Council, and other U.S. government agencies, academia, and non-governmental organizations to participate in policy planning exercises, conferences, and panel discussions. He has also appeared on television outlets such as CNN, ABC, Fox, NBC, and CBC to comment on Balkan affairs.

Dr. Biberaj has written widely on the horrors of communist rule in Albania, the long struggle of Albanians in former Yugoslavia for human and national rights, and the daunting challenges that Albania has faced in its transition from communism to democracy. Elez Biberaj has a Ph.D. in political science from Columbia University. He has authored three books on Albanian affairs and contributed chapters to several others. He has also published articles in Encyclopedia Britannica, Conflict Studies, Problems of Communism, Survey, The World Today, East European Quarterly, The Wall Street Journal/Europe, etc.

Obrad Kesic is a Senior Partner with TSM Global Consultants, LLC. Mr. Kesic is also currently working with the Balkan countries on behalf of the Congressional National Prayer Breakfast. Over the last decade, Mr. Kesic has been working with the governments and with nongovernmental organizations in South Eastern Europe. Mr. Kesic also serves as a consultant on Balkan affairs for various US and international organizations and agencies. Mr. Kesic has provided analysis and briefings for US government agencies and officials, including The Department of State, The Department of Defense and the United States Information Agency. Mr. Kesic also provides frequent commentary and analysis for the US and international media, including for National Public Radio, CNN International, BBC, Voice of America, USA Today, and Monitor Radio. Mr. Kesic has authored dozens of articles and essays on Balkan affairs and on US policy toward the Balkan states. He is a frequent speaker to community, professional and scholarly groups. Mr. Kesic is a member of the Board of Directors of the Institute on Religion and Public Policy. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of the private company, SuperDrive, Inc.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Elez Biberaj Director, Eurasia Division, Voice of America Speaker
Obrad Kesic Senior Partner, TSM Global Consultants, LLC Speaker
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International trade in meat - The tip of the pork chop

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This paper provides an original account of global land, water and nitrogen use in support of industrialized livestock production and trade, with emphasis on two of the fastest growing sectors, pork and poultry. Our analysis focuses on trade in feed and animal products, using a new model that calculates the amount of "virtual" nitrogen, water and land used in production but not embedded in the product. We show how key meat importing countries, such as Japan, benefit from "virtual" trade in land, water and nitrogen, and how key meat exporting countries, such as Brazil, provide these resources without accounting for their true environmental cost. Results show that Japan's pig and chicken meat imports embody the virtual equivalent of 50% of Japan's total arable land, and half of Japan's virtual nitrogen total is lost in the US. Trade links with China are responsible for 15% of the virtual nitrogen left behind in Brazil due to feed and meat exports, and 20% of Brazil's area is used to grow soybean exports. The complexity of trade in meat, feed, water and nitrogen, is illustrated by the dual roles of the US and the Netherlands as both importers and exporters of meat. Mitigating environmental damage from industrialized livestock production and trade depends on a combination of direct pricing strategies, regulatory approaches and use of best management practices. Our analysis indicates that increased water and nitrogen use efficiency and land conservation resulting from these measures could significantly reduce resource costs.

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Ambio
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Rosamond L. Naylor
Henning Steinfeld
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Climate Change and Global Health: Quantifying a Growing Ethical Crisis

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Climate change, as an environmental hazard operating at the global scale, poses a unique and "involuntary exposure" to many societies, and therefore represents possibly the largest health inequity of our time. According to statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO), regions or populations already experiencing the most increase in diseases attributable to temperature rise in the past 30 years ironically contain those populations least responsible for causing greenhouse gas warming of the planet. Average global carbon emissions approximate one metric ton per year (tC/yr) per person. In 2004, United States per capita emissions neared 6 tC/yr (with Canada and Australia not far behind), and Japan and Western European countries range from 2 to 5 tC/yr per capita. Yet developing countries' per capita emissions approximate 0.6 tC/yr, and more than 50 countries are below 0.2 tC/yr (or 30-fold less than an average American). This imbalance between populations suffering from an increase in climate-sensitive diseases versus those nations producing greenhouse gases that cause global warming can be quantified using a "natural debt" index, which is the cumulative depleted CO2 emissions per capita. This is a better representation of the responsibility for current warming than a single year's emissions. By this measure, for example, the relative responsibilities of the U.S. in relation to those of India or China is nearly double that using an index of current emissions, although it does not greatly change the relationship between India and China. Rich countries like the U.S. have caused much more of today's warming than poor ones, which have not been emitting at significant levels for many years yet, no matter what current emissions indicate. Along with taking necessary measures to reduce the extent of global warming and the associated impacts, society also needs to pursue equitable solutions that first protect the most vulnerable population groups; be they defined by demographics, income, or location. For example, according to the WHO, 88% of the disease burden attributable to climate change afflicts children under age 5 (obviously an innocent and "nonconsenting" segment of the population), presenting another major axis of inequity. Not only is the health burden from climate change itself greatest among the world's poor, but some of the major mitigation approaches to reduce the degree of warming may produce negative side effects disproportionately among the poor, for example, competition for land from biofuels creating pressure on food prices. Of course, in today's globalized world, eventually all nations will share some risk, but underserved populations will suffer first and most strongly from climate change. Moreover, growing recognition that society faces a nonlinear and potentially irreversible threat has deep ethical implications about humanity's stewardship of the planet that affect both rich and poor.

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EcoHealth
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Holly Gibbs
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