Environment

FSI scholars approach their research on the environment from regulatory, economic and societal angles. The Center on Food Security and the Environment weighs the connection between climate change and agriculture; the impact of biofuel expansion on land and food supply; how to increase crop yields without expanding agricultural lands; and the trends in aquaculture. FSE’s research spans the globe – from the potential of smallholder irrigation to reduce hunger and improve development in sub-Saharan Africa to the devastation of drought on Iowa farms. David Lobell, a senior fellow at FSI and a recipient of a MacArthur “genius” grant, has looked at the impacts of increasing wheat and corn crops in Africa, South Asia, Mexico and the United States; and has studied the effects of extreme heat on the world’s staple crops.

Two decades ago, South Korea appeared on the path to greatly increased security. The Cold War was ending, fundamentally improving South Korea’s regional security environment. While retaining an alliance with the United States, South Korea was able to normalize relations with all of its neighbors except North Korea. It outpaced North Korea economically, technologically, politically, diplomatically, and militarily. Enjoying a dynamic democracy and firmly committed to the free market, South Korea seemed destined to grow only stronger vis-à-vis North Korea as the leading Korean state and to be well-positioned to preserve its security and integrity against much larger neighbors.

Today, however, South Korea unexpectedly faces a new constellation of significant threats to its security from both traditional and non-traditional sources.

  • North Korea has developed and tested a nuclear device and has continued to improve the capabilities of its long-range ballistic missiles. Despite economic collapse, North Korea still fields one of the world’s largest conventional militaries. The North Korean regime continues to monopolize information to the North Korean people, clouding the prospects for North-South reconciliation.
  • China’s rise presents not only opportunities but also challenges for South Korean security. Russia’s resurgence is a very recent phenomenon that has not been explored in depth. Despite converging attitudes and interests in many respects, historical grievances continue to limit security and diplomatic cooperation between South Korea and Japan.
  • The United States is focused on combating terrorism and managing the rise of China, while South Korean public opinion is divided about North Korea and the alliance with the United States.
  • Global developments—financial crises, economic recession, energy shortages, pollution, and climate change—are also testing South Korea. The ROK has one of the world’s lowest birth rates; the resulting dearth of young people and the aging of society will have major implications for South Korea’s long-term security.  

This closed workshop will examine the above issues from the viewpoint of enhancing South Korea’s security in coming decades.

This workshop is supported by the generous grant from Koret Foundation.

Bechtel Conference Center

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9744 (650) 723-6530
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Koret Fellow, 2008-09
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General (retired) Byung Kwan Kim is the inaugural Koret Fellow for 2008-09 academic year. He was the Deputy Commander of ROK-US Combined Forces Command and the Commander of Ground Component Command.

Koret Fellowship was established by the generous support from Koret Foundation to bring leading professionals in Asia and the United States to Stanford to study United States-Korea relations. The fellows will conduct their own research on the bilateral relationship, with an emphasis on contemporary relations with the broad aim of fostering greater understanding and closer ties between the two countries.

Byung Kwan Kim Koret Fellow in Korean Studies Program, APARC Panelist
Shorenstein APARC
Encina Hall E301
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
(650) 724-8480 (650) 723-6530
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor of Sociology
William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea
Professor, by Courtesy, of East Asian Languages & Cultures
Gi-Wook Shin_0.jpg PhD

Gi-Wook Shin is the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea in the Department of Sociology, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the founding director of the Korea Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) since 2001, all at Stanford University. In May 2024, Shin also launched the Taiwan Program at APARC. He served as director of APARC for two decades (2005-2025). As a historical-comparative and political sociologist, his research has concentrated on social movements, nationalism, development, democracy, migration, and international relations.

In Summer 2023, Shin launched the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), which is a new research initiative committed to addressing emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia. Across four research themes– “Talent Flows and Development,” “Nationalism and Racism,” “U.S.-Asia Relations,” and “Democratic Crisis and Reform”–the lab brings scholars and students to produce interdisciplinary, problem-oriented, policy-relevant, and comparative studies and publications. Shin’s latest book, The Four Talent Giants, a comparative study of talent strategies of Japan, Australia, China, and India to be published by Stanford University Press in the summer of 2025, is an outcome of SNAPL.

Shin is also the author/editor of twenty-seven books and numerous articles. His books include The Four Talent Giants: National Strategies for Human Resource Development Across Japan, Australia, China, and India (2025)Korean Democracy in Crisis: The Threat of Illiberalism, Populism, and Polarization (2022); The North Korean Conundrum: Balancing Human Rights and Nuclear Security (2021); Superficial Korea (2017); Divergent Memories: Opinion Leaders and the Asia-Pacific War (2016); Global Talent: Skilled Labor as Social Capital in Korea (2015); Criminality, Collaboration, and Reconciliation: Europe and Asia Confronts the Memory of World War II (2014); New Challenges for Maturing Democracies in Korea and Taiwan (2014); History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia: Divided Memories (2011); South Korean Social Movements: From Democracy to Civil Society (2011); One Alliance, Two Lenses: U.S.-Korea Relations in a New Era (2010); Cross Currents: Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia (2007);  and Ethnic Nationalism in Korea: Genealogy, Politics, and Legacy (2006). Due to the wide popularity of his publications, many have been translated and distributed to Korean audiences. His articles have appeared in academic and policy journals, including American Journal of SociologyWorld DevelopmentComparative Studies in Society and HistoryPolitical Science QuarterlyJournal of Asian StudiesComparative EducationInternational SociologyNations and NationalismPacific AffairsAsian SurveyJournal of Democracy, and Foreign Affairs.

Shin is not only the recipient of numerous grants and fellowships, but also continues to actively raise funds for Korean/Asian studies at Stanford. He gives frequent lectures and seminars on topics ranging from Korean nationalism and politics to Korea's foreign relations, historical reconciliation in Northeast Asia, and talent strategies. He serves on councils and advisory boards in the United States and South Korea and promotes policy dialogue between the two allies. He regularly writes op-eds and gives interviews to the media in both Korean and English.

Before joining Stanford in 2001, Shin taught at the University of Iowa (1991-94) and the University of California, Los Angeles (1994-2001). After receiving his BA from Yonsei University in Korea, he was awarded his MA and PhD from the University of Washington in 1991.

Selected Multimedia

Director of the Korea Program and the Taiwan Program, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Director of Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, APARC
Date Label
Gi-Wook Shin Director, APARC Moderator

No longer in residence.

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Associate Director of the Korea Program
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David Straub was named associate director of the Korea Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) on July 1, 2008. Prior to that he was a 2007–08 Pantech Fellow at the Center. Straub is the author of the book, Anti-Americanism in Democratizing South Korea, published in 2015.

An educator and commentator on current Northeast Asian affairs, Straub retired in 2006 from his role as a U.S. Department of State senior foreign service officer after a 30-year career focused on Northeast Asian affairs. He worked over 12 years on Korean affairs, first arriving in Seoul in 1979.

Straub served as head of the political section at the U.S. embassy in Seoul from 1999 to 2002 during popular protests against the United States, and he played a key working-level role in the Six-Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear program as the State Department's Korea country desk director from 2002 to 2004. He also served eight years at the U.S. embassy in Japan. His final assignment was as the State Department's Japan country desk director from 2004 to 2006, when he was co-leader of the U.S. delegation to talks with Japan on the realignment of the U.S.-Japan alliance and of U.S. military bases in Japan.

After leaving the Department of State, Straub taught U.S.-Korean relations at the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies in the fall of 2006 and at the Graduate School of International Studies of Seoul National University in spring 2007. He has published a number of papers on U.S.-Korean relations. His foreign languages are Korean, Japanese, and German.

David Straub Associate Director, Korean Studies Program, APARC Panelist

Shorenstein APARC
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 725-6445 (650) 723-6530
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Ben_Self.JPG MA

Ben Self is the inaugural Takahashi Fellow in Japanese Studies at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Prior to joining the Center in September 2008, Self was at the Henry L. Stimson Center as a Senior Associate working on Japanese security policy beginning in 1998. While at the Stimson Center, he directed projects on Japan-China relations, fostering security cooperation between the U.S.-Japan Alliance and the PRC, Japan’s Nuclear Option, and Confidence-Building Measures. Self has also carried out research and writing in areas such as nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, ballistic missile defense, Taiwan’s security, Northeast Asian security dynamics, the domestic politics of Japanese defense policy, and Japan’s global security role. 

From 2003 until 2008, Ben was living in Africa—in Malawi and Tanzania—and is now studying the role of Japan in Africa, including in humanitarian relief, economic development, conflict prevention, and resource extraction. 

Self earned his undergraduate degree in Political Science at Stanford in 1988, and an M.A. in Japan Studies and International Economics from Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. While there, he was a Reischauer Center Summer Intern at the Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS) in Tokyo. He later worked in the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and was a Visiting Research Fellow at Keio University on a Fulbright grant from 1996 until 1998.

Takahashi Fellow in Japanese Studies
Benjamin Self Takahashi Fellow in Japanese Studies,APARC Panelist

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 725-2703 (650) 723-6530
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Pantech Fellow, 2008-09
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Donald W. Keyser retired from the U.S. Department of State in September 2004 after a 32-year career.  He had been a member of the Senior Foreign Service since 1990, and held Washington-based ambassadorial-level assignments 1998-2004.  Throughout his career he focused on U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan and the Korean Peninsula. Fluent in Chinese and professionally conversant in Japanese, Russian and French, he served three tours at the American Embassy in Beijing, two tours at the American Embassy in Tokyo, and almost a dozen years in relevant domestic assignments.  In the course of his career, Keyser logged extensive domestic and foreign experience in senior management operations, conflict resolution, intelligence operations and analysis, and law enforcement programs and operations.  A Russian language major in college and a Soviet/Russian area studies specialist through M.A. work, Keyser served 1998-99 as Special Negotiator and Ambassador for Regional Conflicts in the Former USSR.   He sought to develop policy initiatives and strategies to resolve three principal conflicts, leading the U.S. delegation in negotiations with four national leaders and three separatist leaders in the Caucasus region.

Keyser earned his B.A. degree, Summa Cum Laude, with a dual major in Political Science and Russian Area Studies, from the University of Maryland.  He pursued graduate studies at The George Washington University, Washington, D.C., from 1965-67 (Russian area and language focus) and 1970-72 (Chinese area and language focus).   He attended the National War College, Fort McNair, Washington (1988-89), earning a certificate equivalent to an M.S., Military Science; and the National Defense University Capstone Program (summer 1995) for flag-rank military officers and civilians.

Don Keyser Pantech Fellow in Korean Studies Program, APARC Panelist

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-6530
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Visiting Scholar, 2008-09
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Dr. Jong Seok Lee was the Minister of Unification, and the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National Security Council in Korea. He is currently a Senior Fellow at Sejong Institute in Korea. He has published books on North Korea-China relations, contemporary North Korea, and Korea unification.

Jong Seok Lee Visiting Scholar, APARC Panelist
Alexandre Y. Mansourov The National Committee on North Korea Panelist
Jae Ho Chung Professor, Department of International Studies, Seoul National University Panelist
Kyung-Tae Lee President, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy Panelist
Ji-Chul Ryu Senior Fellow, Korea Energy Economics Institute Panelist
Seong-Ho Shin Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University Panelist

Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Lecturer in International Policy at the Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy
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Daniel C. Sneider is a lecturer in international policy at Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy and a lecturer in East Asian Studies at Stanford. His own research is focused on current U.S. foreign and national security policy in Asia and on the foreign policy of Japan and Korea.  Since 2017, he has been based partly in Tokyo as a Visiting Researcher at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, where he is working on a diplomatic history of the creation and management of the U.S. security alliances with Japan and South Korea during the Cold War. Sneider contributes regularly to the leading Japanese publication Toyo Keizai as well as to the Nelson Report on Asia policy issues.

Sneider is the former Associate Director for Research at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford. At Shorenstein APARC, Sneider directed the center’s Divided Memories and Reconciliation project, a comparative study of the formation of wartime historical memory in East Asia. He is the co-author of a book on wartime memory and elite opinion, Divergent Memories, from Stanford University Press. He is the co-editor, with Dr. Gi-Wook Shin, of Divided Memories: History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia, from Routledge and of Confronting Memories of World War II: European and Asian Legacies, from University of Washington Press.

Sneider was named a National Asia Research Fellow by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the National Bureau of Asian Research in 2010. He is the co-editor of Cross Currents: Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia, Shorenstein APARC, distributed by Brookings Institution Press, 2007; of First Drafts of Korea: The U.S. Media and Perceptions of the Last Cold War Frontier, 2009; as well as of Does South Asia Exist?: Prospects for Regional Integration, 2010. Sneider’s path-breaking study “The New Asianism: Japanese Foreign Policy under the Democratic Party of Japan” appeared in the July 2011 issue of Asia Policy. He has also contributed to other volumes, including “Strategic Abandonment: Alliance Relations in Northeast Asia in the Post-Iraq Era” in Towards Sustainable Economic and Security Relations in East Asia: U.S. and ROK Policy Options, Korea Economic Institute, 2008; “The History and Meaning of Denuclearization,” in William H. Overholt, editor, North Korea: Peace? Nuclear War?, Harvard Kennedy School of Government, 2019; and “Evolution or new Doctrine? Japanese security policy in the era of collective self-defense,” in James D.J. Brown and Jeff Kingston, eds, Japan’s Foreign Relations in Asia, Routledge, December 2017.

Sneider’s writings have appeared in many publications, including the Washington Post, the New York Times, Slate, Foreign Policy, the New Republic, National Review, the Far Eastern Economic Review, the Oriental Economist, Newsweek, Time, the International Herald Tribune, the Financial Times, and Yale Global. He is frequently cited in such publications.

Prior to coming to Stanford, Sneider was a long-time foreign correspondent. His twice-weekly column for the San Jose Mercury News looking at international issues and national security from a West Coast perspective was syndicated nationally on the Knight Ridder Tribune wire service. Previously, Sneider served as national/foreign editor of the Mercury News. From 1990 to 1994, he was the Moscow bureau chief of the Christian Science Monitor, covering the end of Soviet Communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union. From 1985 to 1990, he was Tokyo correspondent for the Monitor, covering Japan and Korea. Prior to that he was a correspondent in India, covering South and Southeast Asia. He also wrote widely on defense issues, including as a contributor and correspondent for Defense News, the national defense weekly.

Sneider has a BA in East Asian history from Columbia University and an MPA from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

Daniel C. Sneider Associate Director of Research, APARC Panelist
Michael H. Armacost Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow, APARC Commentator

Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C-327
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9149 (650) 723-6530
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Shorenstein APARC Fellow
Affiliated Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
tom_fingar_vert.jpg PhD

Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford in 2009.

From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Fingar served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-01 and 2004-05), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001-03), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994-2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-94), and chief of the China Division (1986-89). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.

Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in political science). His most recent books are From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform (Stanford University Press, 2021), Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011), The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, editor (Stanford University Press, 2016), Uneasy Partnerships: China and Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (Stanford, 2017), and Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China’s Future, co-edited with Jean Oi (Stanford, 2020). His most recent article is, "The Role of Intelligence in Countering Illicit Nuclear-Related Procurement,” in Matthew Bunn, Martin B. Malin, William C. Potter, and Leonard S Spector, eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology (Cambridge, 2018)."

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Thomas Fingar Payne Distinguished Lecturer, FSI Keynote Speaker
Charles L. "Jack" Pritchard President, Korea Economics Institute, Washington D.C. Commentator
T. J. Pempel Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley Commentator
Conferences
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Varun Rai
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Executive Summary

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technology that might allow for significant reductions in CO2 emissions. But at present CCS is very expensive and its performance is highly uncertain at the scale of commercial power plants. Such challenges to deployment, though, are not new to students of technological change. Several successful technologies, including energy technologies, have faced similar challenges as CCS faces now. In this paper we draw lessons for the CCS industry from the history of other energy technologies that, as with CCS today, were risky and expensive early in their commercial development. Specifically, we analyze the development of the US nuclear-power industry, the US SO2-scrubber industry, and the global LNG industry.

We focus on three major questions in the development of these analogous industries. First, we consider the creation of the initial market to prove the technology: how and by whom was the initial niche market for these industries created? Second, we look at how risk-reduction strategies for path-breaking projects allowed the technology to evolve into a form so that it could capture a wider market and diffuse broadly into service. Third, we explore the "learning curves" that describe the cost reduction as these technologies started to capture significant market share.

Our findings suggest that directly applying to CCS the conventional wisdom that is prevalent regarding the deployment and diffusion of technologies can be very misleading. The conventional wisdom may be summarized as: "Technologies are best deployed if left in the hands of private players"; "Don't pick technology winners" or "Technology forcing is wrong"; and "Technology costs reduce as its cumulative installed capacity increases". We find that none of these readily applies when thinking about deployment of CCS.

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Why do community-based education and social persuasion programs for promoting healthy lifestyle and preventing chronic disease sometimes fall short of our expectations? Why are population effects so difficult to engineer and why are they so ephemeral? This research carried out at USC, the Claremont Graduate University, and collaborating institutions in China integrates across social, behavioral, and neurocognitive sciences to address those questions.

We conclude tentatively that the answer to each of the questions may lie in individual and context variability relative to program response, and that in order to more fully address the question of prevention program response variability requires engagement and integration across several levels of science to consider the roles of social groupings, environmental selection and design, social influence processes, and brain biology. What works in one social, cultural or organizational setting may not be so effective in another. What works for persons with certain genetic and experiential backgrounds may be totally ineffective for persons with different dispositional or personality characteristics. In a series of community/school based prevention trials carried out in markedly different southern California and central China settings, we have uncovered domains of consistent response, and other domains of substantial environment- and disposition-based response variability. A social influences based smoking prevention program framed in collectivist values and objectives worked to prevent smoking in one cultural setting but not another. And an individualist framed social influences program worked in the setting where the collectivist program did not. But the characteristics of the particular settings which defined program success or failure were different from what conventional (e.g., cultural psychology) wisdom would have led us to expect. Furthermore, both within and across cultural settings, the same individual dispositional characteristics moderated or determined program effectiveness, again in ways not predicted by the common cultural and behavioral science wisdom. In recent studies carried out both in China and the U.S. we have found affective decision deficits, with known neural underpinnings, to account for rapid progression to regular smoking and binge drinking. These deficits are akin to the dispositional characteristics found earlier to moderate prevention program effects. Subsequent brain imaging studies confirm the hypothesized regions of neural involvement. Together these findings hold promise for more effective – situation and phenotype specific – approaches to engendering and sustaining more optimal individual and population health behavior.

Philippines Conference Room

Carl Anderson Johnson Dean & Professor Speaker School of Community & Global Health, Claremont Graduate School
Seminars
Paragraphs

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technology that might allow for significant reductions in CO2 emissions. But at present CCS is very expensive and its performance is highly uncertain at the scale of commercial power plants. Such challenges to deployment, though, are not new to students of technological change. Several successful technologies, including energy technologies, have faced similar challenges as CCS faces now. In this paper we draw lessons for the CCS industry from the history of other energy technologies that, as with CCS today, were risky and expensive early in their commercial development. Specifically, we analyze the development of the US nuclear-power industry, the US SO2-scrubber industry, and the global LNG industry.

We focus on three major questions in the development of these analogous industries. First, we consider the creation of the initial market to prove the technology: how and by whom was the initial niche market for these industries created? Second, we look at how risk-reduction strategies for path-breaking projects allowed the technology to evolve into a form so that it could capture a wider market and diffuse broadly into service. Third, we explore the "learning curves" that describe the cost reduction as these technologies started to capture significant market share.

Our findings suggest that directly applying to CCS the conventional wisdom that is prevalent regarding the deployment and diffusion of technologies can be very misleading. The conventional wisdom may be summarized as: "Technologies are best deployed if left in the hands of private players"; "Don't pick technology winners" or "Technology forcing is wrong"; and "Technology costs reduce as its cumulative installed capacity increases". We find that none of these readily applies when thinking about deployment of CCS.

Through analyzing the development the analogous industries, we arrive at three principal observations:  

  • First, government played a decisive role in the development of all of these analogous technologies. Much of the early government role was to provide direct backing for R&D work and demonstration projects that validated the technological concepts. For example, the US government directly supported for over two decades most of the basic science and engineering research in both SO2 scrubbers and nuclear power. Most of the demonstration projects were significantly underwritten by government as well; the Japanese government was the principal backer of LNG technology through its promises to buy most of the world's LNG output over many years. Direct government support created the niche opportunities for these technologies.
  • Second, diffusion of these technologies beyond the early demonstration and niche projects hinged on the credibility of incentives for industry to invest in commercial-scale projects. In each of the historical cases, government made a shift in its support strategy as the technology diffused more widely. In the early phase (when commercial uncertainties were so high that businesses found it extremely risky to participate in more than small, isolated projects) success in achieving technology diffusion required a direct role for government. But as uncertainties about the technology's performance reduced and operational experience accumulated, direct financial support became less important, and indirect instruments to lower commercial risk rose in prominence. Those instruments included tax breaks, portfolio/performance standards, purchase guarantees, and low-interest-rate loans linked to specific commercial-scale investments. It is conceivable that such incentives could have been supplied by non-governmental institutions, such as large firms or industry associations, but the three analogs point strongly to a governmental role-perhaps because only government action was viewed as credible. (In the United States, many of the key decisions to support new technologies were crafted at the state level, such as through rate base decisions to allow utilities to purchase nuclear plants.)
  • Third, the conventional wisdom that experience with technologies inevitably reduces costs does not necessarily hold. Risky and capital-intensive technologies may be particularly vulnerable to diffusion without accompanying reductions in cost. In fact, we find the opposite of the conventional wisdom to be true for nuclear power in the US (1960-1980) and global LNG (1960-1995). Costs increased as cumulative installed capacity increased. A very rapid expansion of nuclear power plants in the US around 1970 led to spiraling costs, as the industry had no chance to pass lessons from one generation of investment to the next-a fact evident, for example, in the failure to standardize design and regulation that would allow firms to exploit economies of scale. For natural gas liquefaction plants, costs stayed high for decades due to a market structure marked by little competition among technology suppliers and the presence of a single dominant customer (Japanese firms organized by the Japanese government) willing to pay a premium for safety and security of supply. The same attributes that allowed LNG to expand rapidly-namely, promises of assured demand made credible by the singular backing of the Japanese state-were also a special liability as the technology struggled to compete in other markets. The experience with SO2 scrubbers was more encouraging-costs declined fairly promptly once industrial-scale investment was under way. But that happened only after sufficient clarity on technological performance and capability of FGD systems had been established. What followed was a strict performance standard-in the form of a government mandate, imposed by environmental regulators-that effectively picked FGD as a technology winner. The guaranteed market for FGD led to serious investment, innovations, and learning-by-doing cost reductions. We do not argue that this technology-forcing approach was economically efficient but merely underscore that rates of diffusion of FGD technology akin to what is imagined for CCS technology today were possible only under this technology-forcing regulatory regime.

As CCS commercialization proceeds, policymakers must remain mindful that cost reduction is not automatic-it can be derailed especially by non-competitive markets, unanticipated shifts in regulation, and unexpected technological challenges. At the same time, there may be some inevitable tradeoffs, at least for a period, between providing credible mechanisms to reduce commercial risk, such as promises of assured demand for early technology providers, and stimulating market competition that can lead to lower costs. History suggests that government-backed assurances are essential to creating the market for capital-intensive technologies; yet those very assurances can also create the context that makes it difficult for investors to feel the pressure of competition that, over successive generations of technology, leads to learning and lower costs.

We are also mindful that our history here-drawn on the experience of three technologies that have been successful in obtaining a substantial market share-is a biased one. By looking at successes we are perhaps overly prone to derive lessons for success when, in fact, most visions for substantial technological change actually fail to get traction.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, Working Paper #81
Authors
Varun Rai
David G. Victor
Mark C. Thurber

There is a potential for large gains in the efficiency of energy use with substantial economic payoffs: in buildings, motor vehicles, traffic control, electricity grids, industry. All of these applications involve the use of information technologies. This workshop will focus on demand and efficiency topics that are becoming increasingly salient.

This invitation-only workshop involves three important actors on the world energy scene: California and Mainland China are large consumers of oil while Taiwan, for its size a substantial consumer of oil and emitter of greenhouse gases, plays a leading role in information technologies. California’s size and commitment to energy efficiency makes its role an important one within the US while China’s ongoing urbanization has major energy implications.

This workshop is the first in a series with the goal of convening leading experts from these three regions to focus on key energy-economic efficiency issues, form a research agenda and collaborate on possible solutions.

Topics for discussion will include:

  • strategic policy choices, especially the challenges posed by cap-and-trading of carbon emissions
  • improving industry use of energy
  • urbanization 2.0: transportation and buildings
  • how IT helps green the planet, including the use of smart meters 
  • how consumers respond to better data
  • new venture capital investments in clean tech
  • energy efficiency start-ups in Silicon Valley

Preliminary agenda:

Day 1: Tuesday, February 17

8:00 am – 8:30 am Check-in and Continental Breakfast

8:30 am – 8:45 am Introduction

Professor Henry Rowen, Co-Director, Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

8:45 am – 9:45 am Keynote

“How to Think About Energy Efficiency” 
Dr. James Sweeney, Director, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency, Stanford University

10:00 am Strategic Choices

Moderator: Marguerite Hancock, Associate Director, SPRIE 

10:00 am – 10:45 am

Overview: “Trading Carbon in California”   
Dr. Lawrence Goulder, Chair, Economics Department, Stanford University; Member, California Public Utilities Commission

10:45 am – 12:00 pm Panel

“Taiwan’s 2025 Carbon Reduction Goals: Options and Challenges” 
Dr. Robert J. Yang, Senior Advisor, Industrial Technology Research Institute

“A Synthesis of Energy Tax, Carbon Tax and CO2 Emission Trading System in Taiwan” 
Dr. Chi-Yuan Liang, Research Fellow, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica & Professor, National Central University

“Measurement of Energy Efficiency in Taiwan and Relevance to CO2 Decoupling” 
Dr. Chung-Huang Huang, Dean, College of Transportation and Tourism, Kainan University and Professor, Department of Economics, National Tsing Hua University

1:00 pm Industry Uses

Moderator: Dr. Chin-Tay Shih, Dean of College of Technology Management, National Tsing-Hua University

1:00 pm – 1:45 pm

Overview: “Improving Energy Efficiency in Industry” 
Dr. Eric Masanet, Principal Scientific Engineering Associate, Energy Analysis Dept., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

1:45 pm – 3:00 pm Panel

“Technology R&D and Industry Development of Distributed Energy System in Taiwan”
Dr. Hsin-Sen Chu, Executive Vice President, Industrial Technology Research Institute

“Energy Saving Potential and Trend Analysis in Taiwan” 
Dr. Jyh-Shing Yang, Senior Consultant, IEK/ITRI and Professor, National Central University

“Industrial innovation toward low carbon economy in Hsinchu Science Park”
Dr. Kung Wang, Professor, School of Management, National Central University, Taiwan

3:15 pm – 5:30 pm The Urban Environment: Buildings and Transportation

Moderator: Dr. William Miller, Co-Director, Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

Framing Remarks: Dr. Lee Schipper, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency, Stanford University

"Integrated management of energy performance of buildings, building portfolios, and cities"
Dr. Martin Fischer, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Director, Center for Integrated Facility Engineering, Stanford University

“Challenges, priorities and strategies for energy efficiency in the electric car industry”
Mr. Fred Ni, General Manager, BYD America Corporation

"Urban Motorization in China: Energy Challenges and Solutions"
Ms. Wei-Shiuen Ng, Consultant, previously with World Resources Institute

Title TBA—delivered via video link
Mr. David Nieh, General Manager of Planning and Development, Shui On Land Corporation

 

Commentator: Dr. Fang Rong, Researcher, Center for Industrial Development & Environmental Governance, Tsinghua University

 

Day 2: Wednesday, February 18

8:00 am – 8:30 am Check-in and Continental Breakfast

8:30 am How IT Helps Green the Planet

Moderator: Dr. John Weyant, Deputy Director, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency

8:30 am – 9:00 am

“Challenges for Energy Efficiency Innovation and Convergence with Green Environmental Technology”
Dr. Simon C. Tung, General Director, Energy and Environmental Research Laboratories, ITRI

9:00 am – 10:00 am Panel: Two Perspectives on California Initiatives

“Demand Response: Time-differentiating technologies, rates, programs, metrics and customer behavior” 

Dr. Joy Morgenstern, California Public Utilities Commission

“The PG&E Smart Meter Program” 
Ms. Jana Corey, Director of AMI Initiatives, The Pacific Gas and Electric Co.

10:00 am – 10:30 am

Overview: “Behavioral Responses”
Dr. Carrie Armel, Research Associate, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency

10:45 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. A Conversation on IT’s Impact on Energy

Moderator: Professor Henry Rowen, Co-Director, Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

  • Dr. Banny Banerjee, Associate Professor, Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University
  • Dr. Sam Chiu, Professor, Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University 
  • Dr. Hsin-Sen Chu, Executive Vice President, Industrial Technology Research Institute
  • Dr. Lee Schipper, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency, Stanford University

1:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. Operating in the Cleantech Space

Moderator: Dr. Craig Lawrence, Accel Partners

  • Mr. Mike Harrigan, VP Business Development, Coulomb Technology (charging hardware and software infrastructure for electric vehicles)
  • Mr. David Leonard, CEO Redwood Systems (LED lighting management systems)
  • Mr. Frank Paniagua, Jr., CEO GreenPlug (intelligent DC charging for consumer electronics devices)

3:15 p.m – 4:30 p.m. A Venture Capital Perspective

Moderator: Dr. William Miller, Co-Director, Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

  • Mr. Maurice Gunderson, Senior Partner, CMEA Capital
  • Dr. Marc Porat, CEO, Calstar Cement
  • Dr. Marianne Wu, Mohr Davidow Ventures

    Bechtel Conference Center

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    FSI Senior Fellow Emeritus and Director-Emeritus, Shorenstein APARC
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    Henry S. Rowen was a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a professor of public policy and management emeritus at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business, and a senior fellow emeritus of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). Rowen was an expert on international security, economic development, and high tech industries in the United States and Asia. His most current research focused on the rise of Asia in high technologies.

    In 2004 and 2005, Rowen served on the Presidential Commission on the Intelligence of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. From 2001 to 2004, he served on the Secretary of Defense Policy Advisory Board. Rowen was assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs in the U.S. Department of Defense from 1989 to 1991. He was also chairman of the National Intelligence Council from 1981 to 1983. Rowen served as president of the RAND Corporation from 1967 to 1972, and was assistant director of the U.S. Bureau of the Budget from 1965 to 1966.

    Rowen most recently co-edited Greater China's Quest for Innovation (Shorenstein APARC, 2008). He also co-edited Making IT: The Rise of Asia in High Tech (Stanford University Press, 2006) and The Silicon Valley Edge: A Habitat for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (2000). Rowen's other books include Prospects for Peace in South Asia (edited with Rafiq Dossani) and Behind East Asian Growth: The Political and Social Foundations of Prosperity (1998). Among his articles are "The Short March: China's Road to Democracy," in National Interest (1996); "Inchon in the Desert: My Rejected Plan," in National Interest (1995); and "The Tide underneath the 'Third Wave,'" in Journal of Democracy (1995).

    Born in Boston in 1925, Rowen earned a bachelors degree in industrial management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1949 and a masters in economics from Oxford University in 1955.

    Faculty Co-director Emeritus, SPRIE
    Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
    Henry S. Rowen Moderator
    William F. Miller Moderator
    Marguerite Gong Hancock Moderator
    Workshops
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    On March 17 the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies will host a book launch for a pathbreaking new book, Power and Responsibility: Building International Order in an Era of Transnational Threats, co-authored by Stephen Stedman, Senior Fellow, FSI and Director of the Ford Dorsey Program in International Policy Studies, Bruce Jones, Co-Director of the Center on International Cooperation, New York University, and Carlos Pascual, Director of Foreign Policy Studies, the Brookings Institution. Power and Responsibility has been produced by the Managing Global Insecurity Project, a multi-year, multi-continent collaboration between the Brookings Institution, NYU's Center on International Cooperation, and Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute, seeking to coalesce the best thinking on international security affairs today.

    As the authors note, the post-World War II fabric of global security, designed and maintained by the United States, has dangerously frayed. Built for a different age, current international institutions are ill-equipped to address today's pressing transnational security challenges-- such as climate change, nuclear proliferation, civil strife, and terrorism, which are beyond the power of any one state to address.

    Revitalizing the institutions of cooperation will require a new conceptual foundation for global security. The "national sovereignty" of the twentieth century must give way to "responsible sovereignty" - a principle requiring nations not only to protect their own people, but also to cooperate across borders to safeguard common resources and tackle common threats. Achieving this will require American leadership and commitment to a rule-based international order.

    With timely and hard-hitting recomendations, Power and Responsibility seeks to galvanize more effective global action against transnational threats and to build the political support networks needed to reform and revitalize international institutions.

    Following an introduction by Coit D. Blacker, the Olivier Nomellini Professor in International Studies and Director, the Freeman Spogli Institute, all three authors will comment on key ways that revitalized institutions and commitments could address issues topping the foreign policy agendas of the U.S. and its global partners.

    A book signing and reception will follow the authors' commentary.

    Bechtel Conference Center

    Bruce Jones Director, Center on International Cooperation, New York University Speaker
    Carlos Pascual Vice President, Director of Foreign Policy Studies, the Brookings Institution Speaker

    CDDRL
    Encina Hall, C152
    616 Jane Stanford Way
    Stanford, CA 94305-6055

    (650) 725-2705 (650) 724-2996
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    Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
    Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science
    Stedman_Steve.jpg PhD

    Stephen Stedman is a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), an affiliated faculty member at CISAC, and professor of political science (by courtesy) at Stanford University. He is director of CDDRL's Fisher Family Honors Program in Democracy, Development and Rule of Law, and will be faculty director of the Program on International Relations in the School of Humanities and Sciences effective Fall 2025.

    In 2011-12 Professor Stedman served as the Director for the Global Commission on Elections, Democracy, and Security, a body of eminent persons tasked with developing recommendations on promoting and protecting the integrity of elections and international electoral assistance. The Commission is a joint project of the Kofi Annan Foundation and International IDEA, an intergovernmental organization that works on international democracy and electoral assistance.

    In 2003-04 Professor Stedman was Research Director of the United Nations High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change and was a principal drafter of the Panel’s report, A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility.

    In 2005 he served as Assistant Secretary-General and Special Advisor to the Secretary- General of the United Nations, with responsibility for working with governments to adopt the Panel’s recommendations for strengthening collective security and for implementing changes within the United Nations Secretariat, including the creation of a Peacebuilding Support Office, a Counter Terrorism Task Force, and a Policy Committee to act as a cabinet to the Secretary-General.

    His most recent book, with Bruce Jones and Carlos Pascual, is Power and Responsibility: Creating International Order in an Era of Transnational Threats (Washington DC: Brookings Institution, 2009).

    Director, Fisher Family Honors Program in Democracy, Development and Rule of Law
    Director, Program in International Relations
    Affiliated faculty at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
    Date Label
    Stephen J. Stedman Senior Fellow, FSI, and Director, Ford Dorsey Program in International Policy Studies Speaker
    Conferences
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    Come hear four successful entrepreneurial leaders share insights about the crucial element of talent for start-ups in a global environment: how to build a team, recruit the best people, and manage across borders. Draw on their wealth of experiences: they have founded, funded and led many firms, pioneered technologies and business practices, led start-ups and Fortune 500 firms, and recruited and mentored scores of company leaders.

    After the panel discussion there will be a question and answer period, followed by Chinese appetizers and networking.

    This event is open to students, the Stanford community and the general public and is part of Entrepreneurship Week at Stanford University. You can see the entire line-up of Entrepreneurship Week events at eweek.stanford.edu.

    About the panelists

    Benhamou thumb Eric Benhamou
    Eric Benhamou is chairman and CEO of Benhamou Global Ventures, which invests and plays an active role in innovative high tech firms worldwide. He is chairman of the board of directors of 3Com Corporation, an adjunct professor at INSEAD, and a visiting professor at Ben Gurion University. He served as chairman of the board of directors of Palm, Inc. from 1999-07 and as CEO of Palm from 2001-03. Benhamou served as CEO of 3Com Corporation from 1990-2000. Benhamou has served on US government advisory committes and panels, corporate and educational boards and is the recipient of numerous honorary doctorates and awards, including the Packard Award. He holds an MS from the Stanford University School of Engineering.

    chao thumb David Chao
    David Chao, as co-founder and general partner of DCM, guides portfolio companies in formulating marketing strategies, developing management teams and implementing domestic and international partnerships. Prior to DCM, David was a co-founder, acting CFO and CTO of Japan Communications Inc., a provider of mobile data and voice communications services. Chao was part of Apple Computer's Marketing/Promotions group that helped Apple Japan grow from a $25 million company to $500 million in less than 2 years. He has a BA from Brown University and an MBA from Stanford.

    yoon thumb Kyung Yoon
    Kyung Yoon is CEO of Talent Age Associates, a cross-border talent company offering board and executive recruitment, coaching, and leadership development to clients in the US, Europe and Asia. Previously, she was Vice Chairman of Heidrick & Struggles, a executive search and leadership consulting firm, and President of Benten Investments, Inc. She is Chairman of the Asia America MultiTechnology Association and is a former AAMA President. She has served on numerous corporate and civic boards, including the Silicon Valley Bank Financial Group. Yoon holds a BA in Economics from Goucher College and an MBA from the University of Chicago.

    zhao Michael Zhao
    Michael Zhao, CEO and President of Array Networks, has more than 20 years worth of experience in executive roles at Internet infrastructure and systems integration companies. Most recently, Michael was founder and COO of AsiaInfo - a $500M systems integration company he led to a Nasdaq IPO. He is considered a major industry leader throughout Asia and holds a Ph.D. in Engineering from State University of New York at Buffalo and an MBA from Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey. He currently serves as President of the Asia America MultiTechnology Association (AAMA).

    Bechtel Conference Center

    Eric Benhamou Chairman and CEO Panelist Benhamou Global Ventures
    David Chao Co-founder and General Partner Panelist DCM (Doll Capital)
    Kyung Yoon President and CEO Panelist Talent Age
    Michael Zhao President and CEO Panelist Array Networks
    Seminars
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    News
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    A major dimension of effective international cooperation on climate change will be to more successfully engage developing countries in curbing greenhouse gases. The carrots and sticks that have been used for compliance under the current international affairs regime have not given good prospects for the reduction of CO2. This is largely because of the mis-alignment of countries' interests and capabilities. Victor provides an innovative scenario on designing a new institutional framework that would engage developing countries based on current accession protocols used in international economic institutions such as the WTO, OECD, and IMF.

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    Effective strategies for managing the dangers of global climate change are proving very difficult to design and implement.  They require governments to undertake a portfolio of costly efforts that yield uncertain benefits far in the future.  That portfolio includes tasks such as putting a price on carbon and devising complementary regulations to encourage firms and individuals to reduce their carbon footprint.  It includes correcting for the tendency for firms to under-invest in the public good of new technologies and knowledge that will be needed for achieving cost-effective and deep cuts in emissions.  And it also includes investments to help societies prepare for a changing climate by adapting to new climates and also readying "geoengineering" systems in case they are needed.  Many of those efforts require international coordination that has proven especially difficult to mobilize and sustain because international institutions are usually weak and thus unable to force collective action.  All these dimensions of climate diplomacy are the subject of my larger book project and a host of complementary research here at the Program on Energy & Sustainable Development.  

    By far, the most important yet challenging aspect of international climate policy has been to encourage developing countries to contribute to this portfolio of efforts.  Those nations, so far, have been nearly universal in their refusal to make credible commitments to reduce growth in their emissions of greenhouse gases for two reasons.  First, most put a higher priority on economic growth-even at the expense of distant, global environmental goods.  That's why the developing country governments that have signaled their intention to slow the rise in their emissions have offered policies that differ little from what they would have done anyway to promote economic growth.  Second, the governments of the largest and most rapidly developing countries-such as China and India-actually have little administrative ability to control emissions in many sectors of their economy.  Even if they adopted policies to control emissions it is not clear that firms and local governments would actually follow.  

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    Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #82
    Authors
    David G. Victor
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