Environment

FSI scholars approach their research on the environment from regulatory, economic and societal angles. The Center on Food Security and the Environment weighs the connection between climate change and agriculture; the impact of biofuel expansion on land and food supply; how to increase crop yields without expanding agricultural lands; and the trends in aquaculture. FSE’s research spans the globe – from the potential of smallholder irrigation to reduce hunger and improve development in sub-Saharan Africa to the devastation of drought on Iowa farms. David Lobell, a senior fellow at FSI and a recipient of a MacArthur “genius” grant, has looked at the impacts of increasing wheat and corn crops in Africa, South Asia, Mexico and the United States; and has studied the effects of extreme heat on the world’s staple crops.

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Thitinan Pongsudhirak, an International Visitor in 2009-10, is a high-profile expert on contemporary political, economic, and foreign-policy issues in Thailand today. Pongsudhirak is not senior in years, but he is in stature.  His career path has been meteoric since he earned his BA in political science with distinction at UC Santa Barbara only ten years ago. In 2001, he received the United Kingdom’s Best Dissertation Prize for his doctoral thesis at the London School of Economics on the political economy of the Thai economic crisis in 1997.

Since 2006 he has held an associate professorship in international relations at Thailand’s premier institution of higher education, Chulalongkorn University, while simultaneously heading the Institute of Security and International Studies, the country’s leading think tank on foreign affairs. 

His publications include: “After the Red Uprising” in Far East Economic Review, May 2009; “Why Thais Are Angry” in The New York Times, 18 April 2009; “Thailand Since the Coup” in Journal of Democracy, October-December 2008; “Thaksin: Competitive Authoritarian and Flawed Dissident” in John Kane, Haig Patapan and Benjamin Wong (eds), Dissident Democrats: The Challenge of Democratic Leadership in Asia, New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008. He was Salzburg Global Seminar Faculty Member in June 2009, Japan Foundation’s Cultural Leader in 2008, Visiting Research Fellow at ISEAS in Singapore in 2005.

For ten years, in tandem with his academic career, he worked as an analyst for The Economist’s Intelligence Unit.  He has written on bilateral free-trade areas in Asia, co-authored a book on Thailand’s trade policy, and is admired by Southeast Asianist historians for having insightfully revisited, in a 2007 essay, the sensitive matter of Thailand’s role during World War II.


The international visitors seminar series provides an opportunity for the Humanities Center's international scholars in residence to engage with the Stanford community by presenting and discussing their recent work in a congenial environment. Stanford faculty, students, and affiliates meet over lunch to hear a brief, informal presentation and engage in vigorous discussion. The series seeks to foster the exchange of ideas across borders and across disciplines, with the particular goal of enhancing interactions between researchers in the humanities and the social scientists.

Levinthal Hall

Thitinan Pongsudhirak Professor, International Political Economy, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand; FSI-Humanities Center International Visitor, 2009-2010 Speaker
Seminars
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Steven Robins is an anthropologist from Stellenbosch University in South Africa whose research covers issues of governance, citizenship, and social mobilization in post-conflict societies. Robins will give lectures and seminars based on his forthcoming book, From Revolution in South Africa: Social Movement, NGOs and Popular Politics.

The international visitors seminar series provides an opportunity for the Humanities Center's international scholars in residence to engage with the Stanford community by presenting and discussing their recent work in a congenial environment. Stanford faculty, students, and affiliates meet over lunch to hear a brief, informal presentation and engage in vigorous discussion. The series seeks to foster the exchange of ideas across borders and across disciplines, with the particular goal of enhancing interactions between researchers in the humanities and the social scientists.

Levinthal Hall

Steven Robbins Associate Professor, Department of Sociology and Social Anthropology, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa; FSI-Humanities Center International Visitor, 2009-2010 Speaker
Seminars
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Anne Simonin is a historian at the CNRS in the IRICE lab (Identités, Relations Internationales, et Civilisations de l’Europe), which is affiliated with the universities of Paris I and IV. During her visit, she will focus on her latest groundbreaking work, published in 2008, Le Déshonneur dans la République, devoted to the concept of “indignity” in a cultural and legal context from the French Revolution to the emergence of the Fifth Republic (1789-1958).

The international visitors seminar series provides an opportunity for the Humanities Center's international scholars in residence to engage with the Stanford community by presenting and discussing their recent work in a congenial environment. Stanford faculty, students, and affiliates meet over lunch to hear a brief, informal presentation and engage in vigorous discussion. The series seeks to foster the exchange of ideas across borders and across disciplines, with the particular goal of enhancing interactions between researchers in the humanities and the social scientists.

Levinthal Hall

Anne Simonin Historian, CNRS, IRICE Laboratory, University of La Sorbonne, Paris; FSI-Humanities Center International Visitor, 2009-2010 Speaker
Seminars
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Abstract
NRC projects in Africa and learning's in the research practices in low-income communities.

Jussi Impiö is Research Leader of Nokia Research Africa (NORA) in Nairobi. NORA conducts socio-cultural research in Sub-Saharan Africa and together with non-governmental organizations and local universities creates communication solutions to assist in socio-economical development in Africa.

Jussi joined Nokia in 2003 as Senior Research Scientist and has conducted research in the areas of mobile video, civic activism and citizen journalism. Prior to Nokia he has worked as Concept Manager at Clothing+ Corp. and as Researcher at the University of Lapland.

Jussi has co-authored 4 academic publications and holds 10 patents.

Summary of Seminar
Mobile technology is already playing a major role in economic development in Africa.  What might be the impact if that technology was specifically designed for these users? This is the mission of Nokia Research Africa (NoRA); to develop services and devices that meet the specific needs of low income communities in sub Saharan Africa.

There are three stages to the group's work. First, field research is conducted in African communities. Second, the team works on concept design and prototyping. And finally field trials are held and further adjustments made. The team has a strong record of getting products out as a result of its research.

Jussi described three projects he has been involved in recently:

  • 90% of jobs in Sub Saharan Africa are microenterprises. NoRA is developing a micro entrepreneur tool kit that will be rolled out in five countries.
  • 70% of Sub Saharan Africans are members of informal banking groups where money is saved collectively. NoRA is looking at ways of bringing these groups together to share expertise.
  • There is a growing music informal music industry in African slum communities. NoRA is working with NGOs to help understand the dynamics of this.
  • The average age on Africa is 18. NoRA's Youth Africa project seeks to understand how youth segment themselves. Over 400 interviews have been conducted so far and the project is due to be completed by the end of June.

When thinking about the introduction of technology into Africa, Jussi suggests that an analogy with biology may be helpful.  Just as when a new species is introduced to a habitat, a new technology will have all kinds of unintended consequences in its environment, not all of them desirable. Therefore it is crucial to think through any potential harms and how these might be controlled. Jussi also suggested some rules of thumb for working in the field of technology for development in the Africa:

  • Think hard about what is the exact source problem you are trying to solve
  • Make sure you try out ‘horror' scenarios
  • Work with local organizations
  • Talk to journalists - they are often the best sources of information
  • Talk to governments; it is very hard to achieve anything in Africa unless you involve government from the earliest stages
  • Conduct long and controlled pilots
  • Educate users with the skills they will need
  • Don't trust your instincts too much - we can make the mistake of thinking we ‘know' Africa, attributing to it a single culture
  • Expect the worst! It is better to have thought through what could go wrong
  • Be real(ideal)istic. It is important to understand the magnitude of the problems you are dealing with while keeping motivated by the belief that your work could have a major impact

Wallenberg Theater

Jussi Impio Research Leader Nokia Research Africa Speaker Nokia
Seminars
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This paper presents data from six of the first countries incorporated into the Agricultural Lives of the Poor project: Ghana, Guatemala, India, Malawi, Uganda, and Vietnam.  Datasets were selected based on availability and depth of detail on consumption expenditures, sources of income, and agricultural practices.  Each of these survey components is necessary in order for ALP to focus on net consumption/production at the household level, and to understand expenditure and consumption behavior.  Net consumption and production data of individual crops and food groups is further disaggregated by subgroups formed on characteristics that include economic status, household attributes, livelihood strategies, calories available, landholding, tenure types, and agricultural input use.

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Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University
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Karen Wang
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The article discusses the role of commercial ventures in improving access to improved biomass stoves. The key point of the article is that there are three main components to a successful cookstove program (for-profit or not). Stoves need to be desirable, affordable, and require minimal change in lifestyle. In order for stoves to be adopted, all three components must be in place.

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Global Village Energy Partnership International
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Xander Slaski
Mark C. Thurber
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The health sector's successes in Vietnam have been described as "legendary" by international donors, but there is always the other side of the story. One can question the objectivity of reports from the government of Vietnam, the World Bank, and the World Health Organization. One can wonder in what areas the health sector has failed, who has paid for a "success story" and at what cost, and how much information is well documented and has been made public. Are there "stylized facts" regarding those aspects of health that have been successfully reformed compared with those where reform has lagged? Given these concerns, how can the research community contribute to improving health policy in Vietnam?

Dr. Truong will share his thought on recent socioeconomic development in Vietnam, discuss key health policy issues, and reflect upon his experiences including a research project in which the University of Queensland collaborated with Ministry of Health of Vietnam. Additional evidence will be drawn from a study of the cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce tobacco use in Vietnam.

Khoa Truong was a visiting faculty member at the Hanoi School of Public Health and a research fellow at the Health Strategy and Policy Institute in 2008-2009.  Prior to that he spent six years as a doctoral fellow at the RAND Corporation.  His research interests include tobacco, alcohol, and illicit drug control policies; the impacts of built environments on health; international health issues; and economic development.

He received his doctorate and master of philosophy in policy analysis from the Pardee RAND Graduate School and earned a master's degree in development economics from Williams College. A native of Vietnam, he began his career working with NGOs in bilateral and multilateral development projects in Southeast Asia. He was awarded a Fulbright scholarship and wrote “most outstanding paper” submitted at an AcademyHealth's Annual Research Meeting (acknowledged as the premier forum for sharing the results of scholarship on health services).

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Dr. Khoa Truong Assistant Professor of Department of Public Health Sciences Speaker Clemson University
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David Lobell
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Berkeley and Stanford - Climate change could increase the likelihood of civil war in sub-Saharan Africa by over 50 percent within the next two decades, according to a new study led by a team of researchers at University of California, Berkeley, Stanford University, New York University and Harvard University, and published in today's (Monday, Nov. 23) online issue of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

The study provides the first quantitative evidence linking climate change and the risk of civil conflict. It concludes by urging accelerated support by African governments and foreign aid donors for new and/or expanded policies to assist with African adaptation to climate change.

"Despite recent high-level statements suggesting that climate change could worsen the risk of civil conflict, until now we had little quantitative evidence linking the two," said Marshall Burke, the study's lead author,  a graduate student at UC Berkeley's Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, and research associate at the Program on Food Security and the Environment. "Unfortunately, our study finds that climate change could increase the risk of African civil war by over 50 percent in 2030 relative to 1990, with huge potential costs to human livelihoods."

"We were definitely surprised that the linkages between temperature and recent conflict were so strong," said Edward Miguel, professor of economics at UC Berkeley and faculty director of UC Berkeley's Center for Evaluation for Global Action. "But the result makes sense. The large majority of the poor in most African countries depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, and their crops are quite sensitive to small changes in temperature.  So when temperatures rise, the livelihoods of many in Africa suffer greatly, and the disadvantaged become more likely to take up arms."

Understanding the causes and consequences of civil strife in much of the African continent has been a major focus of the social sciences for decades, said Miguel, given the monumental suffering has resulted from it.

In the study, the researchers first combined historical data on civil wars in sub-Saharan Africa with rainfall and temperature records across the continent. They found that between 1980 and 2002, civil wars were significantly more likely in warmer-than-average years, with a 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature in a given year raising the incidence of conflict across the continent by nearly 50 percent.

Building on this historical relationship between temperature and conflict, the researchers then used projections of future temperature and precipitation change to quantify future changes in the likelihood of African civil war. Based on climate projections from 20 global climate models, the researchers found that the incidence of African civil war could increase 55 percent by 2030, resulting in an additional 390,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars.

All climate models project rising temperatures in coming decades, said David Lobell, study co-author and an assistant professor of environmental earth system science at Stanford and center fellow at Stanford's Program on Food Security and the Environment, a joint program of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Woods Institute for the Environment.

"On average, the models suggest that temperatures over the African continent will increase by a little over 1 degree Celsius by 2030," he added. "Given the strong historical relationship between temperature rise and conflict, this expected future rise in temperature is enough to cause big increases in the likelihood of conflict."

To confirm that this projection was not the result of large effects in just a few countries or due to overreliance on a particular climate model, the researchers recalculated future conflict projections using alternate data.  "No matter what we tried - different historical climate data, different climate model projections, different subsets of the conflict data - we still found the same basic result," said Lobell.

It's easy to think of climate change as a long way off, said the researchers, but their study shows how sensitive many human systems are to small increases in temperature, and how fast the negative impacts of climate change could be felt.

"Our findings provide strong impetus to ramp up investments in African adaptation to climate change, for instance by developing crop varieties less sensitive to extreme heat and promoting insurance plans to help protect farmers from adverse effects of the hotter climate," said Burke.

Applying findings from this study could prove useful to policy makers at the upcoming Copenhagen negotiations in December in determining both the speed and magnitude of response to climate change, the authors said.

"If the sub-Saharan climate continues to warm and little is done to help its countries better adapt to high temperatures, the human costs are likely to be staggering," said Burke.

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Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of whether global climate change will exacerbate armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature on the continent, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 60% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 390,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars.  Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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David Lobell
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An integrated approach based on a case study of a new neighborhood in the provincial capital of Jinan in Shandong, China

As part of SPRIE's current research on entrepreneurship and innovation in the green/cleantech space, we are pleased to present this seminar in cooperation with the Precourt Institute for Energy.

About the talk

This presentation will discuss an effort to integrate building energy and emission models with traffic simulation tools, in order to develop integrated urban energy and emission models. The assessment of the environmental impacts of transportation systems does not commonly include an analysis of the effects on building energy use. Similarly, neighborhood level building energy simulations often overlook the impacts of the density of the built environment and the configuration of the street network. Based on a case study of a masterplan for a new neighborhood in Jinan, Shandong Province, China, the modeling approach presented here aims to capture the way the built environment and transportation networks influence each other in terms of energy use and carbon emissions. The goal is to develop a more accurate method to evaluate and compare the environmental performance of various transportation and land use projects.

About the speaker

Nicolae Duduta is a dual Master’s candidate in Transportation Planning and Architecture at UC Berkeley’s College of Environmental Design. He has an undergraduate degree in Architecture and Sustainable Development from the National School of Architecture in Lyon, France.

For the past three years, he has worked as a research assistant  to Prof. Elizabeth Deakin at the Berkeley Center for Global Metropolitan Studies. Recent projects include developing planning guidelines for future High-Speed Rail stations in the Central Valley of California, and advising local governments in China to assess the environmental impacts of new urban developments.

His interests include sustainable transportation and urban design, and his recent work has focused on developing tools to evaluate the environmental performance of neighborhoods, by analyzing the performance of buildings, transportation systems, water and waste treatment and infrastructure.

Philippines Conference Room

Nicolae Duduta Speaker University of California, Berkeley
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