Elections
0
CDDRL Postdoctoral Scholar, 2020-21
thumbnail_leah1_small.jpg

My research centers on topics in comparative politics and the political economy of development. I focus on the micro-foundations of political behavior to gain leverage on macro-political questions. How do autocrats survive? How can citizen-state relations be improved and government accountability strengthened? Can shared identities mitigate out-group animosity? Adopting a multi-method approach, I use lab-in-the-field and online experiments, surveys, and in-depth field research to examine these questions in sub-Saharan Africa and the US. My current book project reexamines the role of elections in authoritarian endurance and explains why citizens vote in elections with foregone conclusions in Tanzania and Uganda. Moving beyond conventional paradigms, my theory describes how a social norm of voting and accompanying social sanctions from peers contribute to high turnout in semi-authoritarian elections. In other ongoing projects, I study how national and pan-African identification stimulated through national sports games influence attitudes toward refugees, the relationship between identity, emotions, and belief in fake news, and how researchers can use Facebook as a tool for social science research.

News Type
Commentary
Date
Paragraphs

 "For the first time in American history, a U.S. congressional election was determined by “instant runoff,” using the system of ranked-choice voting that Maine had adopted in a 2016 voter initiative, and then reinstated (over the resistance of the state legislature and much of the state’s professional political class) in a June 2018 “people’s veto” initiative," writes Larry Diamond in The American Interest. Read here.

Hero Image
gettyimages 1024798034
All News button
1
0
Eloise Duvillier

Eloise Duvillier is the Program Manager of the Program on Democracy and the Internet at the Cyber Policy Center. She previously was a HR Program Manager and acting HR Business Partner at Bytedance Inc, a rapidly-growing Chinese technology startup. At Bytedance, she supported the globalization of the company by driving US acquisition integrations in Los Angeles and building new R&D teams in Seattle and Silicon Valley. Prior to Bytedance, she led talent acquisition for Baidu USA LLC’s artificial intelligence division. She began her career in the nonprofit industry where she worked in foster care, HIV education and emergency response during humanitarian crises, as well as helping war-torn communities rebuild. She graduated from University of California, Berkeley with a bachelor’s degree in Development Studies, focusing on political economics in unindustrialized societies.

Program Manager, Program on Democracy and the Internet
-

The paper that Mark Kayser will be presenting is co-authored by Matthias Orlowski (Humboldt University, Berlin) and Jochen Rehmert (Hertie School of Governance, Berlin).

Synopsis:  Policies are made with one eye cast to the future. As policy is most strongly influenced from within government, coalition inclusion prospects would seem predictive of the behavior of office- or policy-seeking parties. But, oddly, coalition models are poorly designed for empirical prediction. Most theoretical models rely predominantly on seat shares and ideological distance while empirical work tells us that other variables such as coalition history and anti-system parties matter as much; most empirical models predict coalition composition rather than individual parties’ coalition probabilities; neither calculate bargaining leverage between elections and neither test their predictions out of sample. We do. Combining empirical coalition formation models and a large set of political polls, we estimate coalition inclusion probabilities for parties in a sample of 20 parliamentary democracies at a monthly frequency over four decades. The probability of entering or remaining in an alternative government – i.e., bargaining leverage – serves as a strong predictor of party behavior, markedly superior to polls or expected seat shares. We demonstrate our measure’s utility with applications to no-confidence motions and financial policy reform.

Image
Photo of Mark Kayser, Hertie School of Governance, Berlin.

Mark Kayser teaches applied quantitative methods and comparative politics at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin. His research generally centers on elections and political economy.  Current major projects focus on partisan responses to economic crisis, the electoral effects of media reporting of the economy, and the effect of electoral competitiveness on government responsiveness. Before coming to the Hertie School of Governance, he served as an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Rochester.  He has also held a postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowship at Nuffield College, Oxford and will spend the 2018-19 academic year as a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences (CASBS) at Stanford. He is the co-author of a book on the effect of electoral systems on regulation and price levels (Cambridge University Press, 2011) and the author or co-author of articles in the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Political Analysis and other leading journals. He is a recipient of the 2013 GESIS/Klingemann research award, the 2007 best paper award from the APSA Section on European Politics and Society, the Senior Editor for Political Economy of the Oxford Research Encyclopdia and a member of several editorial boards.
Mark Kayser Professor of Applied Methods and Comparative Politics Speaker Hertie School of Governance, Berlin
Lectures
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Midterm elections pose an opportunity for hackers interested in disrupting the democratic process

Voter registration systems provide an additional target for hackers intending to disrupt the US midterm elections; if voting machines themselves are too disperse or too obvious a target, removing voters from the rolls could have a similar effect. in Esquire, Jack Holmes explains that election security experts consider this one of many nightmare scenarios facing the American voting public—and thus, American democracy itself—on the eve of the 2018 midterm elections. (Allison Berke, Executive Director of the Stanford Cyber Initiative, quoted.)

All News button
1
-
Has the age of party democracy passed? Parties throughout advanced democracies face challenges of voter distrust, declining associational ties, and the rise of far-right and populist movements. This conference brings together scholars of American and comparative parties and party systems to understand how and why parties have evolved, and to ask what role parties play in twenty-first century governance. 
Browse the conference webpage to learn more. 
 
 
 
Conferences
Paragraphs

This third volume in the Japan Decides series remains the premier venue for scholarly research on Japanese elections. Spotlighting the 2017 general election, the contributors discuss the election results, party politics, coalition politics with Komeito, the cabinet, constitutional revision, new opposition parties, and Abenomics. Additionally, the volume looks at campaigning, public opinion, media, gender issues and representation, North Korea and security issues, inequality, immigration and cabinet scandals. With a topical focus and timely coverage of the latest dramatic changes in Japanese politics, the volume will appeal to researchers and policy experts alike, and will also make a welcome addition to courses on Japanese politics, comparative politics and electoral politics.

Chapter 15, Abenomics' Third Arrow: Fostering Future Competitiveness?, was written by Shorenstein APARC Research Scholar, Kenji Kushida.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Books
Publication Date
Authors
Kenji E. Kushida
616 Serra StreetEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA 94305-6055
0
sebastian_dettman.jpg Ph.D.

Sebastian Dettman joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as the 2018-2019 Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow in Contemporary Asia.  He researches party building, electoral competition, and political representation in newly democratic and authoritarian regimes, with a focus on Southeast Asia.  His dissertation examines the dilemmas faced by Malaysia’s opposition parties in expanding electoral support and building coalitions, and the implications for regime liberalization. His research has been supported by grants including the NSEP Boren Fellowship, the USINDO Sumitro Fellowship, and Foreign Language and Area Studies (FLAS) Fellowships.

At Shorenstein APARC, Seb will work on developing his dissertation into a book manuscript and make progress on his next project on regime-opposition policy interactions in authoritarian regimes.  He obtained his doctorate in the Department of Government at Cornell University.  Prior to his doctorate, Seb received an MA in Southeast Asian Studies from the University of Michigan. He has also worked as a consultant and researcher for organizations including the Asia Foundation, the International Crisis Group, and the Carter Center.

 

2018-2019 Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow in Contemporary Asia
0
Visiting Student Researcher at The Europe Center, 2018-2019
d._bolet_2014-03-08.jpg

Diane Bolet is a Visiting Student Researcher in comparative politics and European studies from the London School of Economics and Political Science. She is researching local factors behind voting behaviour and on far-right votes in particular. She investigates the effects of local immigration, voluntary associations and social networks on far-right electoral support in Europe. Her research interests include voting behavior, electoral geography and quantitative methods.

 

Diane holds a dual master degree in European Studies from Sciences Po and LSE (with Distinction). Prior to that, she completed a first-class honors Bachelor of Arts in International Politics at King's College, London.

 

CV
(650) 723 3591
0
Fairleigh S. Dickinson, Jr. Professor in Public Policy.
Professor of Political Science
paul.sniderman_photo.jpg

Paul M. Sniderman is the Fairleigh S. Dickinson, Jr. Professor in Public Policy.

Sniderman’s current research focuses on the institutional organization of political choice; multiculturalism and inclusion of Muslims in Western Europe; and the politics of race in the United States.

Most recently, he authored The Democratic Faith and co-authored Paradoxes of Liberal Democracy: Islam, Western Europe and the Danish Cartoon Crisis (with Michael Bang Petersen, Rune Slothuus, and Rune Stubager).

He has published many other books, including The Reputational Premium: A Theory of Party Identification and Policy Reasoning, Reasoning and Choice, The Scar of Race, Reaching beyond Race, The Outsider, and Black Pride and Black Prejudice, in addition to a plethora of articles. He initiated the use of computer-assisted interviewing to combine randomized experiments and general population survey research.

A fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, he has been awarded the Woodrow Wilson Prize, 1992; the Franklin L. Burdette Pi Sigma Alpha Award, 1994; an award for the Outstanding Book on the Subject of Human Rights from the Gustavus Meyers Center, 1994; the Gladys M. Kammerer Award, 1998; the Pi Sigma Alpha Award; and the Ralph J. Bunche Award, 2003.

Sniderman received his B.A. degree (philosophy) from the University of Toronto and his M.A. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of California, Berkeley.

 

Affiliated faculty of The Europe Center
CV
Subscribe to Elections