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Each president of the United States enters office thinking he will be able to define the agenda and set the course of America's relations with the rest of the world. And, almost invariably, each confronts crises that are thrust upon him-wars, revolutions, genocides, and deadly confrontations. Neither Woodrow Wilson nor FDR imagined having to plunge America into world war. Truman had to act quickly, and with little preparation, to confront the menace of Soviet expansion at war's end. JFK, for all his readiness to "bear any burden" in the struggle for freedom, did not expect his struggle to contain Soviet imperial ambitions would come so close to the brink of nuclear annihilation. Nixon was tested by a surprise war in the Middle East. Carter's presidency was consumed by the Shah's unraveling and the Iranian revolution. George H.W. Bush rose to the challenge of communism's collapse and Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. Clinton squandered the opportunity to stop a genocide in Rwanda and waited tragically too long before stopping one in Bosnia. George W. Bush mobilized the country to strike back after September 11, but, in the view of many, he put most of his chips in the wrong war.

In the eye of the historical storm, and in the absence of a challenge as immediate and overpowering as September 11, Pearl Harbor, or the Nazis' march across Europe, it is risky to identify any set of world events as game-changing. Yet that is what many analysts, including myself, believe the Arab revolutions of 2011 are. And a surprising number of specialists-including hard-eyed realists like Fareed Zakaria-have seized upon the crisis in Libya as a defining moment not just for the United States in the region but for the foreign policy presidency of Barack Obama as well.

To date, one could say that Obama has had a surprisingly good run for a foreign policy neophyte. He has revived the momentum for arms control with a new START treaty with Russia, while pressing the issue of human rights within Russia. He has managed the meteoric rise of China decently, while improving relations with India. He has not cut and run from Iraq-as most Republicans were convinced he would. And he has ramped up but at least set limits to our involvement in Afghanistan. As the Arab revolutions have gathered momentum, he has increasingly positioned the United States on the side of democratic change. His statements and actions have not gone as far as democracy promotion advocates (like myself) would have preferred, but they have overridden cautionary warnings of the foreign policy establishment in the State Department, the Pentagon, think tanks, and so on. Without Obama's artful choreography of public statements and private messages and pressures, Hosni Mubarak might still be in power today.

All of this, however, may appear in time only a prelude to the fateful choice that Obama will soon have to make-and, one fears, is already making by default in a tragically wrong way-in Libya. Why is Libya-with its six million people and its significant but still modest share of global oil exports-so important? Why must the fight against Muammar Qaddafi-a crazy and vicious dictator, but by now, in his capacity for global mischief, a largely defanged one-be our fight?

When presidents are tested by crisis, the world draws their measure, and the impressions formed can have big consequences down the road. After watching Jimmy Carter's weak and vacillating posture on Iran, the Soviets figured he'd sit on the sidelines if they invaded and swallowed Afghanistan. They misjudged, but Afghanistan and the world are still paying the price for that misperception. In the face of mixed messages and a long, cynical game of balance-of-power, Saddam too, misjudged that he could get away with swallowing up Kuwait in 1991. When the United States did not prepare for war as naked aggression swept across Asia and Europe, the Japanese thought a quick strike could disable and knock out the slumbering American giant across the Pacific. When Slobodan Milosevic and his Bosnian Serb allies launched their war of "ethnic cleansing," while "the West"-which is always to say, first and foremost, the United States-wrung its hands, many tens of thousands of innocent people were murdered and raped before President Bill Clinton finally found the resolve to mix air power and diplomacy to bring the genocidal violence to a halt.

If Muammar Qaddafi succeeds in crushing the Libyan revolt, as he is well on his way to doing, the U.S. foreign policy establishment will heave a sad sigh of regret and say, in essence, "That's the nasty business of world politics." In other words: nasty, but not our business. And so: not their blood on our hands. But, when we have encouraged them to stand up for their freedom, and when they have asked for our very limited help, it becomes our business. On February 23, President Obama said: "The United States ... strongly supports the universal rights of the Libyan people. That includes the rights of peaceful assembly, free speech, and the ability of the Libyan people to determine their own destiny. These are human rights. They are not negotiable. ... And they cannot be denied through violence or suppression." Yet denying them through murderous violence and merciless suppression-with a massacre of semi-genocidal proportions likely waiting as the end game in Benghazi-is exactly what Qaddafi is in the process of doing.

Barack Obama has bluntly declared that Qaddafi must go. The Libyan resistance, based in Benghazi, has appealed urgently for the imposition of a no-fly zone. Incredibly, the Arab League has endorsed the call, as has the Gulf Cooperation Council. France has recognized the rebel provisional government based in Benghazi as Libya's legitimate government-while Obama studies this all. Can anyone remember a time when France and the Arab League were ahead of the United States on a question of defending freedom fighters?

There is much more that can be done beyond imposing a no-fly zone. No one in their right mind is calling for putting American boots on the ground in Libya. But we can jam Qaddafi's communications. We can, and urgently should, get humanitarian supplies and communications equipment, including satellite modems for connection to the Internet, to the rebels in Benghazi, where they can be supplied by sea. And we should find a way to get them arms as well. Benghazi is not a minor desert town. It is Libya's second largest city, a major industrial and commercial hub, and a significant port. Through it, a revolt can be supplied. If Benghazi falls to Qaddafi, it will fall hard and bloodily, and the thud will be heard throughout the world.

Time may be running out. As the Los Angeles Times reported yesterday, "All that stands between Kadafi and rebel headquarters in Benghazi are disorganized volunteers and army defectors spread thinly along the coastal highway." They have passion and courage, but they lack weaponry, strategy, and training. Like so many rebel movements, they need time to pull these all together. Time is what a no-fly zone and an emergency supply line can buy them.

Libya's rebels are pleading for our help. "Where is America?" asked one of them, quoted in the L.A. Times, who was manning a checkpoint in Port Brega. "All they do is talk, talk, talk. They need to get rid of these planes killing Libyan people." The "they" he was referring to was the Americans, beginning with their leader-one would hope, still the leader of the "free world"-President Obama.

Many prudent reasons have been offered for doing nothing. It is not our fight. They might lose anyway. We don't know who these rebels really are. We have too many other commitments. And so on. The cautions sound reasonable, except that we have heard them all before. Think Mostar and Srebrenica. And we had a lot of commitments in World War II as well, when we could have and should have bombed the industrial infrastructure of the Holocaust. As for the possibility that the rebels might lose-a prospect that is a possibility if we aid them and a near certainty if we do not-which would be the greater ignominy: To have given Libya's rebels the support they asked for while they failed, or to have stood by and done absolutely nothing except talk while they were mowed down in the face of meek American protests that the Qaddafi's violence is "unacceptable"?

Oh yes. There is also the danger that China will veto a U.N. Security Council Resolution calling for a no-fly zone. Part of us should hope they do. Let the rising superpower-more cynical than the reigning one ever was-feel the first hot flash of hatred by Arabs feeling betrayed. Go ahead, make our day.

Presidents do not get elected to make easy decisions, and they certainly never become great doing so. They do not get credit just because they go along with what the diplomatic and military establishments tell them are the "wise and prudent" thing to do. This is not Hungary in 1956. There is no one standing behind Qaddafi-not the Soviet Union then, not the Arab League now, not even the entirety of his own army. That is why he must recruit mercenaries to save him. Qaddafi is the kind of neighborhood bully that Slobodan Milosevic was. And he must be met by the same kind of principled power. For America to do less than that now-less than the minimum that the Libyan rebels and the Arab neighbors are requesting-would be to shrink into global vacillation and ultimately irrelevance. If Barack Obama cannot face down a modest thug who is hated by most of his own people and by every neighboring government, who can he confront anywhere?

For the United States-and for Barack Obama-there is much more at stake in Libya than the fate of one more Arab state, or even the entire region. And the clock is ticking.

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This two-day international forum at Stanford University brought together experts from academia, government, and industry to analyze leading cases of current institutional models for innovation in smart and green industries. Cases included multi-company collaborations, public-private partnerships, and government-funded consortia. To enable more focus and comparative analysis, sectors selected for focus included the built environment and intelligent transportation.

FORUM Speakers & DISCUSSANTS (listed in alphabetical order)

  • Rohit T. Aggarwala, Special Advisor to the Chair, C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group
  • Alan Beebe, Managing Director, China Greentech Initiative
  • Sven Beiker, Executive Director, Center for Automotive Research at Stanford (CARS)
  • Ann Bordetsky, North America Market Development, Better Place
  • Dennis Bracy, cEO, US-China Clean Energy Forum
  • Curtis R. Carlson, President and CEO, SRI International
  • Jaching Chou, Senior Transportation Analyst, Institute of Transportation
  • Stephen J. Eglash, Executive Director, Energy and Environment Affiliates Program, Stanford University
  • Henry Etzkowitz, President of Triple Helix Association; Senior Researcher, Human Sciences and Technology Advanced Research Institute (H-STAR), Stanford University; Visiting Professor at University of Edinburgh Business School
  • Gordon Feller, Director of Urban Innovation, Cisco Systems
  • TJ Glauthier, President, TJG Energy Associates, LLC
  • Russell Hancock, President & Chief Executive Officer, Joint Venture: Silicon Valley Network
  • Ted Howes, Business for Social Responsibility
  • Asim Hussain, Director of Product Marketing, Bloom Energy
  • Paul Chao-Chia Huang, Deputy General Director, Service Systems Technology Center, Industrial Technology Research Institute, Taiwan
  • Kristina M. Johnson, Former Under Secretary of Energy, U.S. Department of Energy
  • Jeffrey Heller, President, Heller Manus Architects
  • Allan King, Senior Manager, Institute for Information Industry, Taiwan
  • Michael Marlaire, Director, NASA Research Park
  • David Nieh, General Manager, Shui On Land Limited
  • Jon Sandelin, Senior Associate Emeritus, Office of Technology and Licensing, Stanford University
  • Gerald Sanders, CEO & Chairman, SkyTran
  • Tim Schweikert, President & CEO, China Region for GE Technology Infrastructure, GE
  • Jonathan Thorpe, Senior Vice President, Gale International
  • Kung Wang, Professor, China University of Technology
  • Sean Wang, President, ITRI International Inc.
  • Jonathan Woetzel, Director, McKinsey & Co; Co-Chair, Urban China Initiative

Questions for presentations and discussion included:

  • What roles are public-private partnerships and other forms of collaboration playing to advance innovations in smart green industries, such as in the built environment or intelligent transportation?
  • What innovations - not only in technologies and products but also in processes, models and platforms - are leading the way?
  • What results are emerging from living labs, leading cities, or other outstanding examples of public-private partnerships around the world?
  • How do results stack up against economic, energy and social metrics, e.g. economic productivity, quality of life, energy impact, financial payback, user response, etc.?
  • What are implications for business strategies?
  • What government policies are effectively nurturing advancement in these areas?

Outcomes will include policy recommendations as well as highlights to be included in a book published by SPRIE at Stanford.

Workshops
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Dr. Farrell earned a Ph.D. in Government from Georgetown University in 2000. He also holds a B.A. and M.A. in Politics from University College Dublin. Previously, he served as Assistant Professor at the University of Toronto, and was a senior research fellow at the Max Planck Institute on Common Goods in Bonn, Germany. He has taught courses on the political economy of European integration, the politics of the Internet, and the comparative political economy of Europe at the University of Toronto and Georgetown University.

Dr. Farrell's publications include: "Constructing the International Foundations of E-Commerce: The EU-US Safe Harbor Agreement," in International Organization, 57,2 (2003); "Trust, Distrust, and Power," in Distrust, ed. Russell Hardin (Russell Sage Foundation, forthcoming); and "Trust and Political Economy: Comparing the Effects of Institutions on Inter-Firm Cooperation," in Comparative Political Studies (forthcoming). Dr. Farrell is a member of the American Political Science Association, the International Society for the New Institutional Economics, the International Studies Association, and the European Union Studies Association

Graham Stuart Lounge

Henry Farrell Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs Speaker George Washington University
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Ruth Grant is Professor of Political Science and Philosophy and Senior Fellow in the Kenan Institute for Ethics at Duke University. She specializes in political theory with a particular interest in early modern philosophy and political ethics. She is the author of John Locke's Liberalism and Hypocrisy and Integrity: Machiavelli, Rousseau and the Ethics of Politics. Her articles have appeared in a variety of journals with audiences in several fields, including political science, medicine, law, education, economics, and philosophy. She has received fellowship awards from the National Endowment for the Humanities, the American Council of Learned Societies, and the National Humanities Center. She earned a bachelor's degree in political science and a doctorate degree in political science from the University of Chicago. She is currently working on a project on ethics and incentives and leading a collaborative project exploring goodness.

Graham Stuart Lounge

Ruth Grant Senior Fellow, Kenan Institute for Ethics Speaker Duke University
Workshops
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The countries sandwiched between Russia and the European Union are not fully independent actors in regional and international politics: they cannot join the EU or NATO and do not wish to form a community dominated by Russia. Most of of these ‘in-between state’ are caught in a political impasse and security deadlock. This lecture will consider the argument that partnership between Russia and Europe will remain strained as long as the status quo for these states persists.

Marie Mendras is Professor at Sciences Po University and Research Fellow with the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique. She runs the Observatoire de la Russie, a study group and workshop a at the Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches Internationales in Paris.

In 2008-2010, Marie Mendras was Professor in the Government Department of the London School of Economics and Political Science. Along with her academic work, she worked as a consultant for the Policy Planning Staff of the Foreign Ministry (1983-1991) and for the Directorate for Strategic Affairs of the Ministry of Defence (1992-1998).

Her publications deal with Russian political developments and foreign policy. She is on the editorial board of the journals Esprit and Pro et Contra and is the author of Russie. L’envers du pouvoir (Odile Jacob, 2008) to be published in English in June 2011 (Hurst, London, and Columbia University Press, New York).

Co-sponsored by the Center for Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Marie Mendras Professor, Sciences Po University; Research Fellow, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Speaker
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About the seminar

As China's Internet population surges towards the half billion mark—double the United States—how are U.S. Internet companies faring in China? Google, Facebook, eBay, Yahoo and others have all faced challenges in China. These include external (competition, regulation/censorship) and internal (management, strategy). Can these firms find a viable position in China? Will emerging players such as Groupon fare any better? Although U.S. Internet companies have struggled, U.S. institutional investors have reaped rich rewards from stakes in leading Chinese firms such as Tencent, Baidu and Alibaba/Taobao. Is this approach a better bet than hoping that U.S. firms gain a foothold in China? If leading Chinese Internet firms continue to dominate their home market, do they stand a chance to succeed internationally including through expansion or M&A in the US?

About the Speaker

Duncan Clark is Chairman of BDA China, a company he founded in Beijing in 1994. Previously, Duncan was an investment banker with Morgan Stanley in London and Hong Kong, where he focused on telecommunications, media and technology (TMT) transactions.

He has guided BDA to become the leading consultancy servicing participants and investors in the TMT sectors in China and India. With a team of over 50 in Beijing and an office of 15 in New Delhi (opened in 2006), BDA has in recent years added to TMT an advisory capacity serving leading private equity firms investing in other fast-growing sectors in these countries such as education, retail and alternative energy.

Clark holds a B.Sc degree in economics with honors from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and currently chairs the school's alumni group in China. A UK citizen, Clark was raised in the UK, the United States and France.


Media X is the partner of this seminar.


Philippines Conference Room

BDA China Ltd
#2908 North Tower, Kerry Centre
1 Guanghua Road
Beijing 100020, China

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Senior Advisor for China 2.0 Project
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Duncan Clark is Chairman of BDA China, a consultancy he founded in Beijing in 1994 after four years as an investment banker with Morgan Stanley in London and Hong Kong. Over the past 19 years, Duncan has guided BDA to become the leading investment advisory firm in China specialized in China's technology, internet and e-commerce sectors.

An angel investor in mobile game app developer Happy Latte and digital content metrics company App Annie Duncan has also served on the Advisory Board of Chinese internet company Netease.com (Nasdaq: NTES) and serves on the Advisory Board of the Digital Communication Fund of Geneva-based bank Pictet & Cie.

A UK citizen, Duncan was raised in England, the United States and France. A graduate of the London School of Economics & Political Science, Duncan is a Senior Advisor to the ‘China 2.0' initiative at the Stanford Graduate School of Business’s Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, where he was invited as a Visiting Scholar in 2010 and 2011.

Duncan is partner in a Beijing-based film production company CIB Productions, and Executive Producer of two China-themed television documentaries including ‘My Beijing Birthday’.

Duncan was appointed Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in the 2013 New Year Honours for services to British commercial interests in China.

Duncan Clark Visiting Scholar Speaker Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE)
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On February 24, the Program on Liberation Technology at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) hosted a conference entitled Blogs and Bullets: Social Media and the Struggle for Social Change, in partnership with the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and George Washington University's Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication (GW). This event was a high-impact gathering of scholars, academics, and representatives from the Silicon Valley tech community, to examine a very timely subject--how social media is being used to advance political change in developing democracies.

Participants from Google, Facebook, the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard, eBay, and YouTube, among others, commented on how recent events in the Arab world have affected their work and the role Web 2.0 tools and mobile phones played to facilitate these citizen-based movements. The Blogs and Bullets research project was launched in 2010 to examine new media through an analytic framework to better understand its impact on contentious politics-whether positive or negative. This event was a rare opportunity to bring both the public and private sectors together to discuss this topic during a daylong closed door session, providing the ideal forum for cross sector collaborations to emerge.

While there was a broad consensus around the effectiveness of social media tools to advance political change, participants were encouraged to look beyond the anecdotal evidence available to employ a more rigorous and methodical approach to impact evaluation. They discussed the challenges involved in studying the affects of social media on contentious politics-from the research design to the scarcity of available data. Many participants used social media throughout the course of the meeting to communicate key findings and discussion points on Twitter and Facebook, opening up the discourse beyond the conference room.

The workshop culminated in a public session that drew over 150 participants eager to learn more from those working on the "frontlines of social media." Panelists included; Marc Lynch from GW, Clay Shirky of New York University (NYU), Olivia Ma of YouTube, Larry Diamond from Stanford University, and was moderated by Sheldon Himelfarb of USIP.

Marc Lynch, Director of Middle East Studies at GW and also know by his pseudonym, Abu Aardvark, for his popular blog on Foreign Policy's website, opened the panel by reflecting on the broader pattern of Arab politics in the 2000s and how surprised the academic community was by the uprising in Egypt, "They (young activists) succeeded at a time when all experts believed we were in a period of authoritarian retrenchment."

Lynch credited previous failed social movements for laying the groundwork for the January 25 revolution, which was catalyzed by the events in neighboring Tunisia. The use of social media had an enormous impact on Arab societies where mainstream media is so heavily censored.  Lynch described the cascading effect of these web 2.0 platforms, which sent video, audio, personal testimonies, and on the ground sources, directly to an international audience. However, Lynch cautioned against crediting just social media, "It is a huge mistake to think this is just about social media, al-Jazeera was absolutely critical."     

Himefarb introduced Olivia Ma, News Manager at YouTube, a Google owned video sharing site, by mentioning a study conducted by the Berkman Center of Harvard University, which found YouTube the most frequented website in the Arabic language blogosphere. YouTube has been an important platform for protestors who are documenting events on the ground across the Arab world and posting video content on YouTube to reach an international audience and raise awareness. This phenomenon is described by Ma as, "The democratization of media because the barrier to broadcasting has dropped allowing everyone the ability to document and bear witness to events".

Ma described a typical day for the news team at YouTube, which involves culling through all the recent video content covering events in any corner of the world to identify the trends, buzzing topics, and "hot videos." Popular videos are often identified by searching through Facebook and Twitter to identify those that are most often shared or 'liked' by users, something Ma identified as the "complex eco-system between all the social networks." While, many of the protest videos are quite graphic in nature, YouTube has classified these videos for educational and documentary purposes, allowing them to keep as much content on the site as possible.

Clay Shirky, Professor of New Media at NYU, provided an historic account of how IT has been used by both insurgents and autocrats in each revolution since the fall of communism. Shirky explained that, "New media tools have been powerful for insurgent movements but they must be built on a need for larger change in the public sphere. (Clay Shirky)New media tools have been powerful for insurgent movements but they must be built on a need for larger change in the public sphere."

Shirky believes the Egyptian revolution was successful because it was built on the foundation and learning from prior movements in Egypt, beginning with Kefaya in 2005, to the April 6 movement in 2008, and most recently with Iran's Green Movement.

Failed uprising have occurred in places, such as Sudan, because there were no established networks of trust and shallow social capital. Shirky described the power of social media to shift mindsets by drawing on a domestic example-in 2006 the American public would not have believed it was possible to elect an African American president until an Obama speech was broadcast on YouTube, outside of the mainstream media, changing the public's perception.

CDDRL Director Larry Diamond who oversees the Program on Liberation Technology, reflected on the first time he met young Egyptian bloggers and leaders of the youth movement, "The energy and freshness of the perspectives along with the agenda and content discussed amongst these young people was striking to the point of disarming." Diamond described the Egyptian youth movement and events in Tahrir Square as possessing a "Jeffersonian quality of the value of the individual and suspicion of authority."

Diamond emphasized the importance of the window onto the world that the Internet provides, which propels the individual from a passive observer to an active contributor. While, Diamond recognized the importance of ICT he also cited its limitations, "It (ICT) will bring down an authoritarian regime but not everyone can build political parties." Diamond continued by suggesting that ICT's are useful tools for emerging political parties to widen the arena for constitutional deliberation, set new rules of the game, and create a "freer and fairer deliberation space."

Surveying cyberspace that evening, it was exciting to follow all the discussion and dialogue across the various social media platforms describing the impact and value of this event in advancing ideas and partnerships. While, Blogs and Bullets was pivotal in moving the research agenda forward, it was clear that the story does not end here. More work needs to be done to collectively examine the impact of this emerging field beyond what we read in our daily Twitter feed.

To learn more about the USIP Blogs and Bullets initiation, please click here

To learn more about the CDDRL Program on Liberation Technology, please click here

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Blogs Courtesy of Margarita Quihuis
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