The Rise of China and Taiwan's Response: Implications for the United States
The complex triangular relationship between China, Taiwan, and the United States has a long and storied history, and most recently, China’s meteoric economic rise has forced a reconsideration of positions by all parties involved. China is on target to become the largest world economy in terms of purchasing power parity within the next decade, and this explosive economic growth is coupled with military expansion that challenges the existing security circumstances in the region. These developments, in turn, have put Taiwan on a path towards economic dependence, international isolation, and security threats, and Beijing’s increasing leverage in Washington allows for yet further indirect influence on cross-Strait relations.
Dr. Yeong-kuang Ger will discuss the background surrounding these issues to provide a context for analysis on the future of this important triangular relationship, and will address in particular the policy moves made by all three parties in adjustment to this changing status quo, as well as the strategy of President Ma’s administration since his election in 2008. Dr. Ger will conclude with a discussion of the implications of these developments for the United States moving forward, with an emphasis on Taiwan’s geopolitical importance to the peace and prosperity of the region as a whole.
Dr. Yeong-kuang Ger is a Member of the Control Yuan of the Republic of China, and a Professor in the Department of Political Science and the Graduate Institute of National Development at National Taiwan University. Dr. Ger received his undergraduate degree from National Taiwan University, and his Ph.D. from the Department of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. In 2009 he was awarded the Freedom Medal of Honor by the Philippine Council for World Freedom.
In addition to his responsibilities with the Yuan and NTU, he acts as a Board Member of the American Association for Chinese Studies; and he is also a Member of the Review Committee, Center for Asian Studies, Chu Hai College in Hong Kong. Dr Ger has authored nine books and over 80 journal articles and conference papers on politics, culture, development and security in Taiwan and East Asia. His recent books include: Political Parties and Electoral Politics (2011); Security Challenges in the Asia Pacific Region: The Taiwan Factor with M.J. Vinod and S.Y. Surendra Kumar (2009); Ideology and Development: Dr. Sun Yat-sen’s Thoughts and Taiwan’s Developmental Experience (2005); and Party Politics and Democratic Development (2001).
Philippines Conference Room
Who is more digital? Teenagers in China or Silicon Valley?
STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS — Who is more digitally switched on – high school students in Silicon Valley or Beijing?
A new study from Stanford University provides some clues. High schoolers in Palo Alto, Calif., in the heart of Silicon Valley, spend significantly more time using digital media every day than their peers at leading high schools in the Chinese capital. However, Chinese students sometimes outpace their American counterparts in embracing the latest internet technologies and building a network of online friends they have never met in person.
The Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE), part of the university's Graduate School of Business, looked into the digital lives of teens in Silicon Valley and China's capital. Seventy-one high schoolers, 44 from Palo Alto and 27 from Beijing, were surveyed online earlier this month. The students, between the ages of 16 and 18, were asked about their usage of different types of consumer electronics and communications, including how much time they spent daily on a range of online activities.
While the California teens spent significantly more time than their Beijing peers using social networking sites and blogging, Beijing students spent considerably more time watching films and videos over the internet, hardly watching television at all. The Beijing teens were much more likely to have online-only friends, and more of them (44% versus 16%) touted Apple's iPad tablets than the Palo Alto respondents.
The study suggested the emergence of a "digital tribe" of teens transcending cultures and geographic borders, especially in tech hotspots such as Silicon Valley and Beijing. "In certain urban locations, today's teens are native 'netizens'," said Marguerite Gong Hancock, associate director of SPRIE. "Most teens in our survey in both Palo Alto and Beijing have had mobile phones since the age of 12. They lead a large part of their daily lives online."
The survey and other research into patterns of entrepreneurship and venture capital investment was discussed September 30 at a Stanford conference addressing the rise of the internet in China. The gathering, China 2.0: Transforming Media and Commerce organized by SPRIE, included speakers from leading internet companies in China, entrepreneurs, and venture capital investors.
In advance of the conference, SPRIE polled the high school students with the assistance of Beijing-based Danwei.org, a Beijing research and information firm. Most of the American teens attend Palo Alto High School, while most of the Beijing students go to People's University Annex High School. Forty-one females and 30 males participated.
SPRIE researchers wanted to get a snapshot of the digital lifestyle of young urban Chinese expected to shape China's technology future. "These are the influencers and early adopters," said Hancock.
China's internet population of about 485 million has already surpassed the approximately 250 million users in the United States. "Understanding the habits of the next generation of Chinese netizens is increasingly important to investors and new media companies. The 'born after 1990' generation in China will play a role in influencing global adoption of new technologies and business models" said Duncan Clark, chairman of consulting firm BDA China, and senior advisor of the China 2.0 project at SPRIE.
There were major similarities between Palo Alto and Beijing students. On weekdays, the top online activity for both was doing schoolwork, followed by using social networking sites and downloading and listening to music. On weekends among the Beijing students, schoolwork remained the leading activity, followed by social networking and web surfing. On weekends in Silicon Valley, students spent the most time on social networking sites, followed by schoolwork and music. In both countries, the teens overwhelmingly favored texting to communicate with friends, although the Beijing teens were less likely to text their parents than the Palo Alto group.
Overall, the U.S. teens spent significantly more time than their Chinese counterparts on almost all types of internet activities. The Palo Alto students spent roughly twice as long (two hours a day) on social networking sites. By contrast, the Beijing teens were much more likely to watch videos and films online.
The study suggested that teens in China rely more heavily on the internet as an emotional and social outlet. In Beijing, more than 90% of respondents said they have friends they know only over the internet. That compared with 29% in Palo Alto. "China's post-'90s single-child generation faces limited play time and heavy academic pressures. The internet enables teens to live out a whole other life online," said Clark.
Radioactive Fallout and the Politics of Risk, 1945-1963
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Risk and Game Analyses: From Engineering to the Social Sciences
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Elisabeth Paté-Cornell
475 Via Ortega Room 336
Huang Engineering Building
Stanford, CA 94305
Dr. M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell was born in Dakar, Senegal. Her academic degrees are in mathematics and physics (BS, Marseilles, France, 1968), applied mathematics and computer science (MS and Engineer Degree, Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble, France, 1970; 1971), operations research (MS, Stanford, 1972), and engineering-economic systems (Stanford, PhD, 1978). She was an Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering at MIT (1978 to 1981). In 1981, she joined the Stanford Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, where she became Professor (1991), then Chair (1997). In 1999, she was named the Burt and Deedee McMurtry Professor in the Stanford School of Engineering. She oversaw from 1999, the merger of two Stanford departments to form a new department of Management Science and Engineering, which she chaired from January 2000 to June 2011. She is a Senior Fellow (by courtesy) of the Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. She joined CISAC as an affiliated faculty member in September 2011.
She was elected to the National Academy of Engineering in 1995, to its Council (2001-2007), and to the French Académie des Technologies (2003). She was a member of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board (2001-2004; 2006-2008). Her current memberships include the Boards of Trustees of the Aerospace Corp. (2004-), of InQtel (2006-) and of Draper Corporation (2009-). She is a member of the Board of Advisors of the Naval Postgraduate School, which she chaired from 2004 to 2006.
She is a world leader in engineering risk analysis and management and more generally, the use of Bayesian probability to process incomplete information. Her research and that of her Engineering Risk Research Group at Stanford have focused on the inclusion of technical and management factors in probabilistic risk analysis models with applications to the NASA shuttle tiles, offshore oil platforms and medical systems. Since 2001, she has combined risk analysis and game analysis to assess intelligence information and risks of terrorist attacks.
She is past president (1995)/fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis, and fellow of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science. She has been a consultant to many industrial firms and government organizations. She has authored or co-authored more than a hundred papers in refereed journals and conference proceedings. She has received several best-paper awards from professional organizations and peer-reviewed journals.
Rebel Governance, War Legacies, and Post-Conflict Democratization
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Determinants of Territorial Conflicts in Africa
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
International Insurance: Why Militant Groups and Governments Compete with Ballots Instead of Bullets
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Technophilia and the New Media: Contemporary Questions of Responsible Cultural Consumption. A Call for Public Debate
An ASEAN Community by 2015? Prospects and Implications for Asia and the United States
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has challenged itself is to become a single integrated community by 2015. The prospect has raised high hopes inside the region. Will they be met? Efforts to build the community have intensified, yet the clock ticks and the deadline looms. Although the result will not match what local enthusiasts of regional unification want to see, but it will likely exceed the expectations of skeptical outsiders. ASEAN is the linchpin of East Asian regionalism, by design and by default. What happens to the Association over the next several years has far-reaching implications for the United States, China, and not least for the states and peoples of Southeast Asia. In his talk, Prof. Pongsudhirak will tease out these dynamics, assess their significance, and explore possible futures beyond 2015.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak heads the Institute of Security and International Studies and teaches international political economy at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. In 2010 he was an FSI-Humanities Center International Visitor at Stanford and, in spring 2011, a visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. He has written many articles, chapters, and books on ASEAN and East Asian affairs, and on Thai politics, political economy, and foreign policy. He has worked for The Nation newspaper (Bangkok), The Economist Intelligence Unit, and Independent Economic Analysis (London). He currently serves on the editorial boards of Asian Politics & Policy, Contemporary Southeast Asia, the Journal of Current Southeast Asian Studies, and South East Asia Research. His degrees are from the London School of Economics (PhD), Johns Hopkins University (School of Advanced International Studies, MA), and the University of California, Santa Barbara (BA).
Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room
Thitinan Pongsudhirak
Stanford Humanities Center
424 Santa Teresa St.
Stanford, CA 94305
Thitinan Pongsudhirak is a high-profile expert on contemporary political,
economic, and foreign-policy issues in Thailand today He is also a
prolific author; witness his op ed, "Moving beyond Thaksin," in
the 25 February 2010 Wall Street Journal.
Pongsudhirak is not senior in years, but he is in stature. His
career path has been meteoric since he earned his BA in political science
with distinction at UC-Santa Barbara not long ago. In 2001 he received
the United Kingdom's Best Dissertation Prize for his doctoral thesis at
the London School of Economics on the political economy of Thailand's
1997 economic crisis.
Since 2006 he has held an associate professorship in international
relations at Thailand's premier institution of higher education,
Chulalongkorn University, while simultaneously heading the Institute of
Security and International Studies, the country's leading think tank on
foreign affairs.
His many publications include: "After the Red Uprising," Far East
Economic Review, May 2009; "Why Thais Are Angry," The New York
Times, 18 April 2009; "Thailand Since the Coup," Journal of
Democracy, October-December 2008; and "Thaksin: Competitive
Authoritarian and Flawed Dissident," in Dissident Democrats: The
Challenge of Democratic Leadership in Asia, ed. John Kane et al.
(2008). He has written on bilateral free-trade areas in Asia,
co-authored a book on Thailand's trade policy, and is admired by
Southeast Asianist historians for having insightfully revisited, in a
2007 essay, the sensitive matter of Thailand's role during World War
II.
He was a Salzburg Global Seminar Faculty Member in June 2009, Japan
Foundation's Cultural Leader in 2008, and a Visiting Research Fellow at
the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Singapore) in 2005. For
ten years, in tandem with his academic career, he worked as an analyst
for The Economist's Intelligence Unit.