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Crisis, Uncertainty, and Democracy: Black Swans, Fat Tails, and the Futures of Political Science

How certain is the future?

Southeast Asia Forum director Donald K. Emmerson addressed the intersection between crisis, uncertainty, and democracy in a keynote presentation at the 2011 annual conference of the Australian Political Studies Association.

Emmerson examined such global events as the large-scale financial crises of recent decades, the 9/11 attacks, and the Arab Spring. He argued that the current century is marked by increasing complexity and uncertainty, which interact to challenge global, regional, and national security in novel ways. It is urgent, he said, to adapt and craft political institutions that can respond quickly and aptly to these new demands.

 

Canberra, Australia

Donald K. Emmerson

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Senior Fellow Emeritus at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Affiliated Faculty, CDDRL
Affiliated Scholar, Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies
aparc_dke.jpg PhD

At Stanford, in addition to his work for the Southeast Asia Program and his affiliations with CDDRL and the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, Donald Emmerson has taught courses on Southeast Asia in East Asian Studies, International Policy Studies, and Political Science. He is active as an analyst of current policy issues involving Asia. In 2010 the National Bureau of Asian Research and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars awarded him a two-year Research Associateship given to “top scholars from across the United States” who “have successfully bridged the gap between the academy and policy.”

Emmerson’s research interests include Southeast Asia-China-US relations, the South China Sea, and the future of ASEAN. His publications, authored or edited, span more than a dozen books and monographs and some 200 articles, chapters, and shorter pieces.  Recent writings include The Deer and the Dragon: Southeast Asia and China in the 21st Century (ed., 2020); “‘No Sole Control’ in the South China Sea,” in Asia Policy  (2019); ASEAN @ 50, Southeast Asia @ Risk: What Should Be Done? (ed., 2018); “Singapore and Goliath?,” in Journal of Democracy (2018); “Mapping ASEAN’s Futures,” in Contemporary Southeast Asia (2017); and “ASEAN Between China and America: Is It Time to Try Horsing the Cow?,” in Trans-Regional and –National Studies of Southeast Asia (2017).

Earlier work includes “Sunnylands or Rancho Mirage? ASEAN and the South China Sea,” in YaleGlobal (2016); “The Spectrum of Comparisons: A Discussion,” in Pacific Affairs (2014); “Facts, Minds, and Formats: Scholarship and Political Change in Indonesia” in Indonesian Studies: The State of the Field (2013); “Is Indonesia Rising? It Depends” in Indonesia Rising (2012); “Southeast Asia: Minding the Gap between Democracy and Governance,” in Journal of Democracy (April 2012); “The Problem and Promise of Focality in World Affairs,” in Strategic Review (August 2011); An American Place at an Asian Table? Regionalism and Its Reasons (2011); Asian Regionalism and US Policy: The Case for Creative Adaptation (2010); “The Useful Diversity of ‘Islamism’” and “Islamism: Pros, Cons, and Contexts” in Islamism: Conflicting Perspectives on Political Islam (2009); “Crisis and Consensus: America and ASEAN in a New Global Context” in Refreshing U.S.-Thai Relations (2009); and Hard Choices: Security, Democracy, and Regionalism in Southeast Asia (edited, 2008).

Prior to moving to Stanford in 1999, Emmerson was a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he won a campus-wide teaching award. That same year he helped monitor voting in Indonesia and East Timor for the National Democratic Institute and the Carter Center. In the course of his career, he has taken part in numerous policy-related working groups focused on topics related to Southeast Asia; has testified before House and Senate committees on Asian affairs; and been a regular at gatherings such as the Asia Pacific Roundtable (Kuala Lumpur), the Bali Democracy Forum (Nusa Dua), and the Shangri-La Dialogue (Singapore). Places where he has held various visiting fellowships, including the Institute for Advanced Study and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. 



Emmerson has a Ph.D. in political science from Yale and a BA in international affairs from Princeton. He is fluent in Indonesian, was fluent in French, and has lectured and written in both languages. He has lesser competence in Dutch, Javanese, and Russian. A former slam poet in English, he enjoys the spoken word and reads occasionally under a nom de plume with the Not Yet Dead Poets Society in Redwood City, CA. He and his wife Carolyn met in high school in Lebanon. They have two children. He was born in Tokyo, the son of U.S. Foreign Service Officer John K. Emmerson, who wrote the Japanese Thread among other books.

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Panel discusses why U.S. VC money flies over Japan

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On October 20, the SPRIE-Stanford Project on Japanese Entrepreneurship (STAJE) hosted a panel discussion featuring venture capitalists and a group of U.S.-Japan experts. The discussion with the title, "U.S.-Japan VC Cooperation and the Fly Over Phenomenon" was moderated by SPRIE Researcher, Robert Eberhart and held at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

Panelists included Michael Alfant, CEO of Fusion Systems, Martin Kenney, Professor at UC Davis, Allen Miner, Founder of SunBridge, Scott Ellman, CEO of USAsia Venture Partners, Quaeed Motiwala, Managing Director at DFJ JAIC, and William F. Miller, Co-director of SPRIE. They discussed the tendency of U.S. based venture capital firms to fly from Silicon Valley, over Japan, and invest into China.

The panel noted that the reasons usually given by U.S. venture capitalists for the flyover phenomemon is that Japan has obscure accounting, uncertain relief in courts, and too far away to monitor. But since those risks are much larger in China other explanations were needed.  The lack of innovation - i.e. copycat firms -  that flourish in new niches in China are more attractive for VCs than the highly competitive and risky new technologies in Japan. Panelist also suggested that investing cycles are dominated by "fashion" with Japan being out of fashion, and noted the late stage investing pattern in China versus earlier stage investing in Japan and the U.S.  Finally, the panel posed an interesting question for STAJE research that perhaps under certain circumstances protected markets that are now in China might reduce the risks and increase returns for venture capitalists.

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Cyberwar - Overhyped or Over Here?

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Stewart Baker, a former policymaker at both the National Security Agency and the Department of Homeland Security will talk about the latest concern in official Washington.  Putting cyberweapons in historical context, he'll describe how the United States and other countries are responding to the strategic challenge of cyberwar - and what it might mean for the future of the Internet.

Speaker Biography:

Stewart Baker is a partner in the law firm of Steptoe & Johnson.  He is the author of Skating on Stilts – Why We Aren’t Stopping Tomorrow’s Terrorism, a book on the security challenges posed by technology and the use of data in preventing terrorism.

From 2005 to 2009, he was the first Assistant Secretary for Policy at the Department of Homeland Security. Stemming from his role at DHS, Mr. Baker has a deep background in the international implications of US security policy- such as disputes over US collection of data from international businesses.

Mr. Baker’s practice covers national security, electronic surveillance, law enforcement, export control, encryption, and related technology issues.

From 1992 to 1994, Mr. Baker was General Counsel of the National Security Agency, where he led NSA and interagency efforts to reform commercial encryption and computer security law and policy. 


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Stewart Baker Partner, Steptoe & Johnson, LLP; Former Assistant Secretary for Policy, Department of Homeland Security Speaker
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Gregory and Nunez discuss the use of video cameras in human rights work

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Sam Gregory, program director at WITNESS
 and Bryan Nunez, technology manager at Witness, delivered the Oct. 27 Liberation Technology seminar entitled, “Cameras Everywhere: Meeting the Challenges at the intersection of Human Rights, Video and Technology.” The speakers discussed WITNESS’ agenda to harness the power of video cameras in bringing out human rights issues into public attention. The speakers shared their story of working with human rights activists on using videos to transform personal stories of abuse into powerful tools for justice, promoting public engagement and policy change.

Gregory and Nunez discussed the strategic use of video in human rights work and their engagement with activists around the world on this subject. They suggested that there are various protagonists that play an important role as witnesses: from those who are unexpected to those who are more purposeful. In order to understand the impact of videos, it is important to go beyond those who make the videos and also consider the role of aggregators and curators, as they provide a valuable role in the process of ‘witnessing’.

They discussed different ways of capturing information through videos while taking into account security and ethical issues, and the challenges in making videos more usable especially when their production is decentralized. Other challenges they identified include: too much that is competing for our attention; the problem of privacy and of verification. Notwithstanding the challenges, they have had success over the years, and they argued, “We’ve witnessed brave people of all ages coming together to effect a profound change in their country.”

Some specific recommendations were made, including: supporting curation of human rights videos, facilitating user education and understanding of human rights issues. They suggested that it is important to have autonomous sites and options for people for hosting content. In particular, it is essential to look at resources that are not controlled by governments.

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DoD Efforts to Counter WMD

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After the Cold War, much of the U.S. countering-WMD efforts focused on dismantling the weapons and WMD production systems of the Soviet Union. While those efforts, along with passive defense and other programs, are still under way, more attention is being paid to preventing future threats from arising. Ensuring that terrorists are not able to acquire nuclear or biological materials for use in a weapon has become one of the highest U.S. national security priorities. Assistant Secretary Andrew Weber will discuss U.S. countering-WMD efforts, how they have changed, and what the Department of Defense is doing to address the threats that face us today. 

Speaker biography:

Andrew Weber is the principal advisor to the Secretary of Defense, the Deputy Secretary of Defense, and the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics for matters concerning nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs. He is the Staff Director of the Nuclear Weapons Council, which manages the nuclear weapons stockpile, and he oversees the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program.

Prior to his appointment by President Obama, he served for 13 years as an Adviser for Threat Reduction Policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He played a key role in Nunn-Lugar operations to remove weapons grade uranium from Kazakhstan and Georgia, and nuclear capable MiG-29 aircraft from Moldova. Weber also developed and oversaw the Department of Defense Biological Threat Reduction Program. He has a Master of Science in Foreign Service degree from Georgetown and is a graduate of Cornell University.


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Andrew Weber Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs Speaker
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Srinivasan speaks to using social media to create connections

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RRamesh Srinivasan, assistant professor at UCLA in design and media/information studies, delivered the Oct. 20 Liberation Technology seminar. The talk was entitled, “Layers of Networks: How the Street, Institutions, and Mediascape Converge in Egypt.” This wide ranging talk takes us through his fieldwork in Kyrgyzstan, India and other countries and culminates with his recent fieldwork in Egypt on the use of social media in the revolution. Through these journeys he argues that technology has the potential to act as a ‘bridge’ that could connect peoples across cultures.

Ramesh discusses his field experiments in India where he provided people in his fieldwork villages with video cameras to document any issue that was valuable to them, and discovered that the process of recording and watching the videos helped in developing broad social priorities. Similarly during his work in Kyrgyzstan and in Egypt he observed that a small sphere of bloggers used social media to create strong ties among themselves, and given the media ecology with the social media having connections with other media, they ended up having a broader reach among the international community. In essence, they served as bridges communicating across boundaries.

The key themes of the talk revolved around the concepts of bridges, interfaces and networks. Ramesh argued that he has sought to understand the role that technology could play in fostering meaningful dialogue among peoples who have different vocabularies and understandings with which they approach the world i.e. “What bridges will bring people together in terms of multi-cultural interaction?” Ramesh argued that technologies are culturally constructed, and culturally created and that technologies can serve as bridges if diverse cultural values or ontologies are considered in their design. Technologies can then act as bridges to connect people across networks.

The talk takes us through the complexities of social media serving as a bridge and discusses preliminary ideas for designing an online architecture that could provide a space for multiple voices and serve as a bridge across different cultures.

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Stern discusses strengthening grassroots in Africa providing the “last mile”

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In the October 13 seminar entitled, "The Last Mile: Grassroots Development and Technology in Africa” Joshua Stern, executive director of Envaya, and Jesse Young, CTO of Envaya, shared their insights into how software could be used to strengthen grassroots development in Africa. Envaya’s mission is to build and deploy a software platform that provides “the last mile” of connection between grassroots activists and the larger development sector. 

Stern suggested that one of the biggest challenges in the development space currently was the lack of coordination between the community-based organizations, the NGOs and the foundations. He further argued that a system is only as strong as its weakest links. He therefore suggests that it is important to strengthen the weakest links. In the case of Tanzania and many other developing countries, Stern argued that the weakest link was in the connection between the community-based organizations and the international NGOs that often provided critical financial support. The community-based organizations are essential to focus on because they are embedded within the communities they are working in and have institutional memory, and they stay with the communities unlike international organizations and volunteers that come and go.

In Africa, Stern argued, there is a pretty robust grassroots civil society but often people are working on very similar work and do not know one another. Furthermore, organizations have trouble navigating secure funding. There is therefore a huge potential for collaboration. In particular, there is room for greater leveraging technology. Stern argued, “Despite leaps and bounds in hardware infrastructure, software is still tailored to the developed world.” Community organizations have therefore not been able to take advantage of the IT revolution. Envaya fills this gap by providing software that is optimized to work with infrastructure in these localities, thus enabling these organizations to make use of the connectivity that is now becoming available to them.

Josh and Jesse inspired us with the vision of Envaya to provide a technology platform for civil society organizations in developing countries so that communication and collaboration can take place beyond the occasional conference.  Young discussed the technical details Envaya’s innovation that enabled the rapid spread of their platform among the grassroots organizations in Tanzania and elsewhere.

 

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