Our objective is to formulate and then build a capability that could focus on the design of influence in Global CASoS. Such a capability would allow evaluation of the cost benefit for policies imposed at a variety of scales and thus the design of policy combinations to most effectively achieve high levels of individual and/or communal health. Many of these policies have to do with Security: land and boarder security, food security, water security, energy security, commerce security, etc. As such, this effort lays a foundation for development of Trans-spectrum (i.e., resource, entity, scale) Global Security. An overview of this work will be presented for discussion.
About the speaker:
Robert Glass, Jr. is the 2011-2012 Perry Fellow at CISAC. Before coming to CISAC, he was a Senior Scientist in the office of Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems Engineering Initiative at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico. He has published in peer reviewed journals such as Critical Infectious Diseases, Emerging Infectious Diseases and Physica A.
He received a PhD and a M.S. from Cornell University in Agricultural and Biological Engineering and a B.S. from Haverford College.
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Robert Glass
William J. Perry Fellow
Speaker
CISAC
A new study out of Stanford University finds extreme temperatures are cutting wheat yields by 20 to as much as 50 percent, a finding worse than previously estimated. FSE center fellow David Lobell and his colleagues used nine years of satellite measurements of wheat growth in northern India's breadbasket, the Indo-Gangetic Plains, to analyze rates of wheat ageing after exposure to temperatures higher than 34 degrees Celsius.
Extreme heat beyond the plant's tolerance zone damages photosynthetic cells. This causes wheat to age faster, reducing the length of the growing season and the amount and size of the wheat grains. The team's crop models found that a two degree increase in temperatures would reduce the growing season by nine days, yielding 20 percent less wheat.
As the world's second-biggest crop, lost wheat yields may become a major threat to global food security. Especially given the projection that global yields need to rise 50 percent by 2050 to feed a growing, more affluent population. The results imply that warming presents an even greater challenge to wheat than previous studies estimated, and that the effectiveness of adaptations will depend on how well they reduce crop sensitivity to very hot days, particularly in areas of the world such as India already experiencing warming conditions.
Isabelle Delpla is assistant professor of philosophy, HDR in philosophy and political science, University Montpellier III, and member of the Research Center Triangle (UMR CNRS 5206). Her research focuses on the relation between philosophy and anthropology and on international ethics and justice. She has carried out fieldwork in postwar Bosnia (with victim associations; warcrime trial prosecution and defense witnesses; and convicted war criminals). Her work on postwar Bosnia deals with the Srebrenica massacre, the reception of the International criminal tribunal (ICTY) and the status of victim and witnesses (see Peines de la guerre, La justice pénale internationale et l’ex-Yougoslavie, coedited with M. Bessone, EHESS, 2010 et Investigating Srebrenica, coedited with X. Bougarel et J.-L. Fournel, Berghahn, forthcoming in 2012; Viols en temps de guerre, Paris, Payot, 2011, coedited with R. Branche, F. Virgili, J. Horne, P. Lagrou, D Palmieri). On this basis, she is developing a (philosophical) attempt at moving beyond moral and political solipsism in a general theorizing of international ethics and justice (See Le mal en procès. Eichmann et les théodicées modernes, Hermann, 2011).
Richard and Rhoda Goldman Conference Room
Isabelle Delpla
Professor of Philosophy
Speaker
University of Montpellier III
Norman Naimark
Robert and Florence McDonnell Professor of East European Studies
Moderator
Stanford University, FSI Senior Fellow by courtesy
Helen Stacy
Director
Moderator
Program on Human Rights
FSE director Roz Naylor participated in the lead plenary session integrating climate, energy, food, water, and health at the 12th National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment. The theme of this year's conference was Environment and Security, and included keynote talks delivered by Amory Lovins and Thomas Freedman.
While many of us here in the US wake up concerned about political, economic, and military unrest at home and abroad, billions still wake up with more basic, human security concerns, opened FSE director Rosamond L. Naylor in a plenary connecting climate, energy, food, water, and health.
Are we going to have enough to eat today? How am I going to feed my family or care for family members struggling with HIV/AIDS and other infectious diesease? Is there enough water to drink, bathe, and still water my crops?
Naylor emphasized the need to bring these human security issues back into the forefront of our global conscious. While these are 'humanitarian needs at the core', they are also related to national and international security.
"When people are desperate enough, and we've seen this particularly with the food price spike in recent years, they take to the streets, and sometimes when they take to the streets they realize they are disgruntled about a number of things in addition to food prices," said Naylor.
The Arab Spring and wave of rebellions throughout the Middle East last year demonstrate the connections between food security, unmet basic needs, and national security. It has been a chaotic time for world food markets, said Naylor.
Naylor's global statistics are discouraging. Over a billion people still suffer from chronic hunger and malnutrition, 1/5 don't have physical access to water, and roughly 1.6 billion are facing economic water constraints (do not have the economic resources to access available water). Food and water insecurity are exacerbating the incidence and transmission of infectious disease.
At a time when investment is sorely needed, the Hill has been making dramatic cutbacks in foreign assistance and foreign investment is falling short. Efforts made by the private sector, philanthropy, and civil society, while valuable, remain siloed. Opportunties are being missed by not addressing the interrelated nature of food and health issues.
Despite this dire outlook, Naylor offered solutions to help us rethink our development strategy.
Invest in more diversified and nutritious crops that have more climate adaptation potential.
Consider new irrigation strategies, particularly in areas like Africa where 96% of the continent is still not irrigated. Not large dams, but small, distributed irrigation systems that rely on solar and wind.
Integrate food and health programs and the way we think about domestic and productive water uses.
Naylor was joined on the panel by Jeff Seabright (Vice President, The Coca-Cola Company), Daniel Gerstein (Deputy Under Secretary for Science and Technology, U.S. Department of Homeland Security), and Geoff Dabelko (Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars). The panel was moderated by Frank Sesno (George Washington University and Planet Forward). Video of the plenary can be found below:
Download the podcast and listen to executives and entrepreneurs from the Valley sharing their insights on how they are building successful businesses which leverage cloud computing to re-shape their industries, from enterprise solutions to mobile consumer applications, in this featured event at Stanford Graduate School of Business for Stanford's annual Entrepreneurship Week.
About the panel discussion
“Cloud makes it easier and cheaper than ever for anyone anywhere to be an entrepreneur and to have access to all the best infrastructure of innovation”, noted Jeff Weiner, CEO of LinkedIn.
By reducing IT design and deployment costs significantly, enabling greater access to data and services across geographies, and harnessing flexible computing power, cloud enables innovation in firms and fuels a start-up boom across the globe. CHAIN and SPRIE are pleased to present a panel of executives, investors and entrepreneurs to share their insights about building successful businesses by leveraging cloud computing.
PANELISTS
James Dai, CEO and founder of CalmSea Inc.
Jim Dai, Chief Executive Officer, CalmSea
Jim is the CEO and founder of CalmSea Inc., a provider of business optimization solutions for retailers. Jim has 25 years of experience in software industry, with a proven track record of delivering quality product and services to customers. Before founding CalmSea Inc, Jim was an entrepreneur-in-residence at Altos Ventures. Prior to that, Jim was the Sr. Vice President of Products for DemandTec, responsible for Product Management, Engineering, Operations, Customer Support and IT. Jim was instrumental in DemandTec’s successful IPO in 2007. Prior to joining DemandTec, Jim held executive management positions at Siebel, Vivant!, DoubleTwist, Informix and Oracle.
Jim holds a Bachelor Degree in Computer Science from the University of California, Berkeley and a Master Degree in Management from Stanford University.
Sam Ghods, Vice President of Technology, Box.com
Sam Ghods, Vice President of Technology, Box.com
Sam Ghods, Vice President of Technology, Box.com
Sam Ghods is the Vice President of Technology at Box, where he manages the design and architecture of Box's application and technology stack. Prior to joining Box, Sam was a developer at essembly.com, which is now part of Project Agape. Before essembly.com, Sam was the lead developer at zexsports.com, where he was responsible for development, server management, and architecture.
Sam attended the University of Southern California, where he studied computer engineering and computer science for two years before joining Box in 2006.
Ken Oestreich, Senior Director of Marketing, EMC
Ken Oestreich, Senior Director of Cloud and Virtualization Marketing, EMC
Ken Oestreich is Sr. Director of Cloud and Virtualization Marketing at EMC. With over 20 years in enterprise software and data center technology, he is now helping EMC define the market for cloud computing and IT transformation.
Prior to EMC Ken was with Egenera Inc, a data center infrastructure play (funded by Pharos Capital and Kodiak Venture Partners) and Cassatt Corp, a data center automation startup (funded through Warburg Pincus). Earlier in his career, he was with Sun Microsystems in various new product management capacities. Ken also helped found the Liberty Alliance, an industry-wide body defining federated identity standards for the internet.
Ken began his career in Electrical Engineering, controlling adaptive optics with Litton Industries. He holds a BSE in Electrical Engineering from the University of Pennsylvania and an MBA from Columbia University.
He frequently blogs at fountnhead.blogspot.com and tweets as @fountnhead.
Cindy Padnos, Founder and Managing Director, Illuminate Ventures
Cindy Padnos is the founder and managing partner of Illuminate Ventures, an early stage, high-tech venture capital firm. Illuminate invests in start-ups leveraging new technologies and business models, with a focus in the fast growing category of cloud computing. Current investments and board seats include BrightEdge, CalmSea, Hoopla and Xactly Corporation.
Named by Fast Company as one of the Most Influential Women in Technology in 2010 and by the San Francisco Business Times as one of the Most Influential Women in Business in the Bay Area in 2011, Cindy has been helping accelerate emerging technology companies for over 25 years - as an entrepreneur, advisor, investor and board member. She has raised and deployed more than $100 million in venture funding to help launch dozens of innovative start-ups and bring them to successful outcomes.
Cindy is an advisor to Astia and Project Olympus and sits on the Business Board of Advisors for Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business where she received her MBA/MSIA.
Robert Scoble, Start-up liaison, Rackspace; Blogger of 'Scobleizer'
Robert Scoble (Moderator), Startup Liaison Officer, Rackspace
Robert Scoble is a blogger, technology evangelist, and author. Scoble is best known for his blog, Scobleizer, which came to prominence during his tenure at Microsoft from 2003-2006, and he was one of the five guys who started Microsoft's famous Channel9 video community. Subsequently, he worked for Fast Company as a video blogger. He currently works at Rackspace as Startup Liaison Officer through the sponsored content and social networking site building43.com. He is the co-author of Naked Conversations: How Blogs are Changing the Way Businesses Talk with Customers. Described by The Economist as a “minor celebrity among geeks worldwide who read his blog religiously”, Scoble has the distinction of followcost.com naming a unit of measurement to quantify how annoying it will be to follow someone on Twitter as the “milliscoble.”
The Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE) is dedicated to advancing the understanding and practice of innovation and entrepreneurship in leading regions around the world. Through interdisciplinary and international research, seminars and conferences, publications and digital content, as well as education for students, industry and government leaders, SPRIE impacts the arenas of academia, business, and policy.
China America Innovation Network (CHAIN) is committed to build an ecosystem of mentors, experts, professionals, and peers based in U.S. and China that will enable entrepreneurs to access resources from both countries and realize their entrepreneurial ambitions. The CHAIN network currently has over 6000 members from 1,000+ companies, representing a diverse range of sectors in the technology and related financial industries.
About Entrepreneurship Week (E-Week) at Stanford
Stanford E-Week
E-Week celebrates the power of the entrepreneurial spirit at Stanford. The university continues to play a major role in the inception and development of many entrepreneurial ventures. Many of our faculty, staff, alumni, and current students have started businesses or bring entrepreneurial approaches to their work. To concentrate this passion for entrepreneurship, E-Week is presented anually by the Stanford Entrepreneurship Network, a federation of two dozen entrepreneurship-related campus groups.
N302, Oberndorf Event Center
3rd Floor, North Building (above Arbuckle Dining Pavilion)
Knight Management Center, Stanford Graduate School of Business
655 Knight Way, Stanford, CA 94305-7298
N302, Oberndorf Event Center
3rd Floor, North Building (abo
Japan's experience with China's rise thus far suggests an increasingly tumultuous Northeast Asia. For a decade or more, the Sino-Japanese relationship has been punctuated with a series of political crises, and while the two governments in Beijing and Tokyo have sought to define a new forward looking agenda for their nations, it is the management of these crises that have shaped Japanese attitudes towards a rising China. Sheila Smith will present her analysis of Japan's domestic response to China's rise, and how it has affected the constellations of interests that shape Japan's policy response. She argues that these various moments of contention in Japan's relations with China, from Koizumi's Yasukuni Shrine visits, to resource development in the East China Sea, to the Gyoza "war," and the Senkaku "shock," could have provided the opportunity for building cooperative more effective conflict resolution mechanisms in the Sino-Japanese relationship. Yet within Japan, these various issues of contention have hardened Japanese attitudes rather than produced support for greater diplomatic compromise. As Chinese influence grows, Japan's postwar institutions and policy preferences are being sorely tested not only in the diplomatic realm, but from deeply within Japan's own society. Postwar beliefs about Japan's past, its security and its ability to cope with an increasingly volatile Northeast Asia are all being challenged.
Sheila A. Smith, an expert on Japanese politics and foreign policy, is senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Smith directed the Council on Foreign Relation’s New Regional Security Architecture for Asia Program and currently leads a project on China and India as Emerging Powers: Challenge or Opportunity for the United States and Japan? She joined CFR from the East-West Center in 2007, where she directed a multinational research team in a cross-national study of the domestic politics of the U.S. military presence in Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Smith was on the faculty of the Department of International Relations at Boston University (1994–2000), and on the staff of the Social Science Research Council (1992–1993). She has been a visiting researcher at two leading Japanese foreign and security policy think tanks, the Japan Institute of International Affairs and the Research Institute for Peace and Security, and at the University of Tokyo and the University of the Ryukyus. Smith earned her PhD and MA degrees from the Department of Political Science at Columbia University. She regularly contributes to CFR’s Asia Unbound blog.
Philippines Conference Room
Sheila Smith
Senior Fellow for Japan Studies
Speaker
Council on Foreign Relations
For a copy of the original article in Japanese, please contact Toshihiro Higuchi at th233@stanford.edu.
At the end of last year, the expert panel established by the Cabinet Office submitted a report on the effects of low-level and chronic radiation exposure. It is a Herculean task to tackle the difficulty challenge of risk management within such a short period. Risk management regarding the type of radiation exposure at issue, however, is not a matter of pure science to be left solely with scientific experts. It is essential for each of us to judge the degree of its danger and work out social consensus as to solutions.
Our past experience offers a lesson worth noting. In March 1954, the U.S. hydrogen bomb test showered an enormous amount of deadly fallout on a Japanese tuna fishing boat. The specter of “radioactive tuna” terrified consumers, and reports of cesium and strontium in brown rice and vegetables continued. As public opinion against nuclear tests was boiling, the U.S. government claimed that health damage from them was negligible and asked the scientific committee established by the United Nations to investigate this problem.
Accurate estimates of the health damage caused by low-level radiation exposure, however, proved extremely difficult. A fierce debate inevitably broke out over the validity of the findings, and people began to feel even more insecure. The claim that the damage from pollution was small also turned out to be relative in comparison to the security value of nuclear weapons, the scale of X-rays, natural background and other radiation hazards, and such commonly accepted dangers as smoking cigarettes or driving a car. In reality, however, the world was deeply divided over the merits of nuclear armaments. Moreover, the essential character of fallout hazards differed from our everyday risks in that we could neither avoid the danger of fallout nor expect due compensation for it. As a result, all prerequisites for comparative analysis quickly eroded in the case of radioactive contamination. In August 1958, the United Nations Scientific Committee reported its conclusion that there was no reason to tolerate the risks of radioactive fallout from nuclear tests. In the end, the U.S. government’s claim lost its ground.
Our society has a wide diversity of values. It is simply impossible to seek a universal answer as to how much radiation dose is acceptable to all stakeholders. Even if those in charge of risk management unilaterally determine the “acceptable” dose, it will be meaningless unless people at risk accept such decision. It will rather saw a seed of distrust and make risk management even more difficult.
Our next task is to listen to the voices of people at risk through regular field visits and social media such as Internet, and to explore a point of social consensus as to the risks associated with nuclear power.
July 10, 2011 was a milestone in history, marking twenty years since South Africa acceded to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). To this day, South Africa remains the only country to have produced and assembled nuclear weapons and to have later relinquished that arsenal. Moreover, that denuclearization came without any direct external intervention, and involved opening-up the former top secret program to international scrutiny, voluntarily, beyond that required by the NPT. While each example of nuclear weapons proliferation has a unique history and basis, South Africa is a particularly instructive exemplar as a result of its unprecedented rollback. That rollback provided sufficient transparency for clear insights into:
1) Why a nation might seek to acquire nuclear weapons, 2) What tactics might a nation employ to conceal the existence of nuclear weapons program under a “Peaceful” nuclear program umbrella, 3) What strategies might a nation consider with respect to the potential use of such weapons, and 4) Why a nation might choose to renounce its nuclear weapons.
This seminar will focus upon a few less reported, but nonetheless salient, aspects of the South African nuclear weapons program pertinent to the monitoring and assessment of the capabilities and intent of other threshold nations whose nuclear programs remain suspect (despite having been repeatedly declared as being solely for only peaceful purposes). They include object lessons derived from the various efforts that the minority-ruled government of South Africa took to conceal its nuclear program from external discovery, and to ensure sufficient ambiguity to allow that program to progress unabated, despite externally imposed restraints and sanctions, (and only up until termination was self-imposed through internal decision making). The lessons thus learned also provide an objective basis for comparison and assessment of alternative intents represented by the various capabilities, activities, and statements associated with those of contemporary nuclear threshold states exhibiting similar ambiguity.
About the speaker:
Frank Pabian is the Senior Geospatial Information Analyst at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the Global Security Directorate and a visiting scholar at CISAC. Frank has nearly 40 years in the nuclear nonproliferation and satellite imagery analysis fields including 30 years with US National Laboratories. During 1996-1998, he served as Nuclear Chief Inspector for the United Nation’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) during ground inspections in Iraq, focusing primarily on equipment/materials “Hide Sites”, and “Capable Sites” that were deemed potentially associated with weapons of mass destruction development and/or production.
His responsibilities at Los Alamos National Laboratory include “Rest-of-World” infrastructure analysis involving the exploitation of all-source information, particularly commercial satellite imagery in combination with openly available geospatial tools for visualization. Frank has published in numerous peer-reviewed scientific journals on the use of commercial satellite imagery for treaty verification and monitoring, and his work has been featured on magazine covers and in textbooks for training in the nonproliferation and intelligence professions. Frank is a recipient of the US Intelligence Community Seal Medallion (gold medal) for “sustained superior performance” for Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty verification support to the IAEA during South Africa’s denuclearization, and for associated discoveries derived from original analysis of all-source, including open source, information. Frank is also a “Certified Mapping Scientist, Remote Sensing” with the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ASP&RS).
James Dai, CEO and founder of CalmSea Inc.
Sam Ghods, Vice President of Technology, Box.com
Ken Oestreich, Senior Director of Marketing, EMC
Cindy Padnos, Founder and Managing Director, Illuminate Ventures
Robert Scoble, Start-up liaison, Rackspace; Blogger of 'Scobleizer'
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Stanford E-Week