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Biological forensics has made considerable strides in the past decade, in part, due to advances in DNA analysis and, in part, due to advances other microscopic diagnostic techniques such as atomic force microscopy to analyze structural properties of microorganisms and secondary-ion mass spectrometry to analyze the chemical constituents of microorganisms. This talk will cover recent advances in the field of microbial forensics with application to potential bioterror attacks, excluding investigations that currently are ongoing.

Paul Jackson is the forensics group leader within the Biosciences Directorate at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and, prior to that, at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Jackson is currently a member of the FBI Working Group for Forensic Analysis of Microbial Evidence. His past research has involved analyses of anthrax samples from the 1979 anthrax outbreak in Sverdlovsk, Russia, and the 2001 anthrax letter attacks in the United States. His current research focuses on genetic typing methods applied to biological toxins such as Ricin. He received his BS from the University of Washington and his PhD from the University of Utah.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Paul Jackson Forensics Group Leader, Biosciences Directorate Speaker Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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The speaker will describe his experiences over ten years of developing a comprehensive program to engage the formerly top secret Soviet biological weapons complex through joint scientific research and disease surveillance. He will also discuss how lessons learned can be applied to potential new efforts to reduce global threats of bioterrorism and potential pandemics.

Andrew Weber is the adviser for cooperative threat reduction policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. His responsibilities include developing and overseeing CTR biological threat reduction programs in the former Soviet Union, and nuclear and chemical weapons threat reduction projects in Central Asia. Before coming to the Office of the Secretary of Defense in 1996, Weber served as a U.S. Foreign Service officer in Saudi Arabia, Germany, Kazakhstan, and Hong Kong. Weber holds an MSFS degree from Georgetown University and a BA from Cornell University. He speaks Russian. Weber is an adjunct professor at the Georgetown University Graduate School of Foreign Service.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Andrew Weber Senior Adviser for Cooperative Threat Reduction Policy Speaker Office of the Secretary of Defense
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Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Jay Davis National Security Fellow, Center for Global Security Research Speaker Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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Water scarcity is one of the key problems that affect northern China, an area that covers 40 percent of the nation's cultivated area and houses almost half of the population. The water availability per capita in North China is only around 300 m3 per capita, which is less than one seventh of the national average. At the same time, expanding irrigated cultivated area, the rapidly growing industrial sector and an increasingly wealthy urban population demand rising volumes of water. As a result, groundwater resources are diminishing in large areas of northern China. For example, between 1958 and 1998, groundwater levels in the Hai River Basin fell by up to 50 meters in some shallow aquifers and by more than 95 meters in some deep aquifers.

Past water policies have not been effective in solving water scarcity problems. China's leaders have put priorities on increasing water supply through developing more canal networks or building more reservoirs. In 2001, the State Council started the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. However, these supply-side approaches cannot meet the increasing demand for water from all of the different sectors and cannot solve water scarcity problems in the long run.

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Scott Rozelle
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In a book assessing the development of China during the People's Republic era, it is of interest to know how well agriculture has performed and the role that it has played in the development process. Has China produced food and other commodities that have contributed to China's growth? Has it been successful supplying labor to the off farm sector? How has agriculture contributed to the rise in rural incomes and growth, in general? In short, one of the overall goals of this chapter is to document the performance of the agricultural sector and use the criteria of Johnston and Mellor to assess how well the agricultural sector has done.

This chapter, however, seeks to go further than describing the achievements and shortfalls of China's agricultural economy; we also aim to identify the factors, both domestic policies and economic events as well as foreign initiatives, that have induced the performance that we observe. To create an agricultural economy that can feed the population, supply industry with labor and raw materials, earn foreign exchange and produce income for those the live and work in the sector and allow them to be a part of the nation's structural transformation requires a combination of massive investments and well-managed policy effort. The process can only proceed smoothly if an environment is created within which producers can generate output efficiently and earn a profit that can contribute to household income. Policies are required to facilitate the development of markets or other effective institutions of exchange. Although the sector is expected to contribute to the nation's development and allow for substantial extractions of labor and other resources, large volumes of investment also are needed. Investment in education, training, health and social services are needed to increase the productivity of the labor force when they arrive in the factories. Investment is needed in agriculture to improve productivity to keep food prices low, allow farmers to adopt new technologies and farming practice as markets change, and to raise incomes of those that are still in farming. Investment is needed in technology, land, water and other key inputs that are in short supply. In this chapter we seek to point out both policies that have facilitated the performance of the agricultural sector and those that have constrained it.

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Scott Rozelle
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China has been highly successful in electrifying rural areas in the past half century. Institutional structure and its reform are important for investment and, therefore, development of rural electrification. Over time, there have been three major institutional changes initiated by the central government; When the People's Republic was founded in 1949, it was short of capital, technology and management professionals to promote rural electrification, so rural electricity had a separate administrative system from the urban areas.

From 1949 to 1977, China established a comprehensive vertical system of rural electricity administration under strict central planning. At the end of the 1970s, with the adoption of economic reform policy, the central government handed over the management of the local electricity system to local government. County level has proved the most effective implementation unit for both planning and project implementation of the rural electricity system. From 1998 to 2002, the central government has been separating local electricity supply from local governments to facilitate the commercial operation of the utility market. After 2002, the rural electricity system was merged with the urban system, forming an integrated national electricity administrative system in China.

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China and World Economy
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Michael Blake is Associate Professor of Philosophy at the University of Washington. He holds a joint appointment with the Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs. He received his bachelor degree in philosophy and economics from the University of Toronto, and his legal training at Yale Law School. He specializes in social and political philosophy, philosophy of law, and international ethics.

Sponsored by the Program on Global Justice, the Stanford Humanities Center, and the Department of Political Science (Stanford Political Theory Workshop).

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

Michael Blake, PhD Associate Professor Speaker the University of Washington
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China is experiencing urbanization at an unprecedented rate over the last two decades. The overall goal of this paper is to understand the extent of and the factors driving urban expansion in China from the late-1980s to 2000. We use a unique three-period panel data set of high-resolution satellite imagery data and socioeconomic data for entire area of coterminous China. Consistent with a number of the key hypotheses generated by the monocentric model, our results demonstrate the powerful role that the growth of income has played in China's urban expansion. In some empirical models, the other key variables in the monocentric model, population, the value of agricultural land and transportation costs, also matter. Adapting the basic empirical model to account for the environment in developing countries, we also find that industrialization and the rise of the service sector appear to have affected the growth of the urban core, but their role was relatively small when compared to the direct effects of economic growth. We also make a methodological contribution, demonstrating the potential importance of accounting for unobserved fixed effects.

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Journal of Urban Economics
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Scott Rozelle
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This talk will discuss the study of a new factor that makes civil war more likely: the inability of political actors to make credible promises to broad segments of society. Lacking this ability, both elected and unelected governments pursue public policies that leave citizens less well-off and more prone to revolt. At the same time, these actors have a reduced ability to build an anti-insurgency capacity in the first place, since they are less able to prevent anti-insurgents from themselves mounting coups. However, while reducing the risk of conflict overall, increasing credibility can, over some range, worsen the effects of natural resources and ethnic fragmentation on civil war. Empirical tests using various measures of political credibility support these conclusions.

About the speaker:

Philip Keeferis a Lead Research Economist in the Development Research Group of the World Bank. Since receiving his PhD in Economics from Washington University at St. Louis in 1991, he has worked continuously on the interaction of institutions, political economy and economic development on issues ranging from the impact of insecure property rights on economic growth to the effect of political credibility on the fiscal and monetary policy choices of governments. His work has appeared in journals ranging from the Quarterly Journal of Economics to the American Review of Political Science.

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Philip Keefer Lead Research Economist, Development Research Group Speaker the World Bank
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