Stanford University

Science and Technology

At the Crossroads of Modernization: China and Russia

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AGENDA

 

8:50-9:00 Welcome Remarks by Christer Prusiainen and Kathryn Stoner-Weiss

9:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m. "Political Transformation in Russia"

Chair: Linda Jakobson, Senior Fellow, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Paper Presenter: Christer Pursiainen, the Council on Baltic States

Discussant: Dr. Kathryn Stoner-Weiss, Deputy Director, CDDRL, Stanford University

10:00-11:00 a.m. "Political Transformation in China"

Chair: Linda Jakobson, Senior Fellow, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Paper Presenter: Minxin Pei, Professor of Government, Claremont McKenna College

Discussant: Kevin O'Brien, Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkley

11:00-11:15 a.m. Coffee Break

11:15 a.m. -12:15 p.m. "Chinese Foreign Policy in the New Era"

Chair: Christer Pursiainen, the Council on Baltic States

Paper Presenter: Sergei Medvedev, Professor, Moscow Higher School of Economics

Discussant: Steven Fish, Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley

12:15-13:15 p.m.  Lunch (Outside the Conference Room)

13:15-14:15: "Russia Foreign Policy in the New Era"

Chair: Christer Pursiainen, the Council on Baltic States

Paper Presenter: Linda Jakobson, Senior Fellow, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Discussant: Tom Fingar, Oksenberg/Rohlen Distinguished Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

14:15-15:15 p.m. "Social Stratification in China since Reform"

Chair: Minxin Pei, Professor Claremont McKenna College

Paper Presenter: Dr. Li Chunling, Professor, Institute of Sociology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Discussant: Andrew Walder, Denise O'Leary and Kent Thiry Professor of Sociology, Stanford University

15:15-15:30 p.m. Coffee Break

15:30-16:30 p.m. "Social Stratification in Russia"

Chair: Minxin Pei, Professor, Claremont McKenna College

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Kathryn Stoner-Weiss Senior Research Scholar, Deputy Director Panelist CDDRL
Minxin Pei Professor of Government Panelist Claremont McKenna College
Sergei Medvedev Professor Panelist Moscow High School of Economics
Linda Jakobson Senior Fellow Panelist Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Li Chunling Professor, Institute of Sociology Panelist Chinese Academy of Social Science
Markku Kivinen Professor of Sociology and Director of the Aleksanteri Institute Panelist University of Helsinki
Christer Pursiainen Panelist
Igor Tomashov Panelist
Workshops

Taiwan's Changing Political Landscape and Prospects for the 2012 Presidential Election

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The question of whether President Ma Ying-jeou will be reelected has already become a hot issue in Taiwan, two years in advance of the next presidential election.  In this special seminar, Professor Ying-lung You, a political scientist and one of the most prominent political strategists in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), will analyze the current political and electoral landscape of Taiwan and the possible future trends. Whereas some may argue that the question of Ma’s reelection is a question mark only for those who oppose him, Professor You argues that the reality is rather different. This is particularly so after the ruling KMT party has encountered five consecutive setbacks in the recent elections. In this seminar, Professor You will provide firsthand information about the recent election campaigns in Taiwan. By carefully examining Taiwan’s shifting political landscape, he will give us his prediction about the prospects of both the DPP and the KMT in the 2012 presidential election.

Dr. Ying-lung You received his B.A. and M.A. from National Taiwan University, and his Ph.D. in political science from University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. In 1995-96, he was executive director of Election Strategy and Campaigning for the DPP. In 1999, he directed election strategy and public opinion polls in the campaign headquarters of then former Taipei City major Chen Shui-Bian, who later won the presidential election in March 2000. In 2000-01, he served as vice-chairman of the Research, Development, and Evaluation Commission of the Executive Yuan. In 2002-03, he served as Deputy Secretary General for the DPP and in 2003-05 as Vice President of the Katagalan Institute. From 2005 to 2008, he served as the vice chairman of the Mainland Affairs Commission of the Executive Yuan and concurrently served as vice Chairman and secretary-general of the Strait Exchanges Foundation, through which positions he was mainly responsible for Taiwan’s Cross-Strait policy making under the DPP administration. His research interests are public opinion, voting behavior, democratization, constitutional choices, and cross-strait relations.  He is the author/editor of 4 books and more than 20 scholarly articles.

Philippines Conference Room

Ying-lung You Professor of Political Science Speaker Soochow University
Seminars

Firoze Manji on challenges using new media to support social justice movements in Africa

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News
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Firoze Manji is founding Executive Director of Fahamu - Networks for Social Justice, a pan African organization with offices in Kenya, Senegal, South Africa and the UK.

Fahamu exists to support the development and growth of a powerful social justice movement in Africa. There are three core areas of activity:

Training: Fahamu aims to strengthen human rights organizations by providing training programs that include sufficient pre workshop preparation and post workshop follow-up to ensure substantive learning. Fahamu has created CD-ROM based training packages covering subjects from advocacy to financial management to gender violence and conflict.

News & Media: Pambazuka News is a weekly electronic newsletter providing commentary and analysis on issues of social justice across Africa, published in English, French and Portuguese. There are 26,000 subscribers and half a million unique visitors to the site. Content is also published on allafrica.com and it is widely used by mainstream media. Pambazuka was one of the first African organizations to use podcasts and videocasts.

Advocacy: Fahamu was heavily involved in efforts to persuade countries to sign up to the African Union's Rights of Women in Africa Protocol. The organization attracted a great deal of attention for its strategy of getting people to sign a petition via cell phones. Within 18 months it had persuaded the necessary 15 countries to ratify the Protocol.

Firoze shared a number of his insights from his experience using ICTs in these areas:

There remain real barriers to use of ICTs in Africa: Middle class Africans often have more than one cell phone each; penetration figures can therefore be misleading. The cost associated with text and especially voice services is prohibitive for many. While email is cheap, web surfing is expensive and due to low bandwidth, painfully slow. 

Paper formats are in some instances still the most useful: Feedback from students on Fahamu courses has shown consistent demand for paper resources. Students rarely have their own home computer or laptop and they may travel often; internet cafes can be unsafe environments for women alone. For these reasons, Fahamu continues to produce print resources. It also recently launched Pambazuka Press to promote African writers.  Books will be sold at cost to distributors in Africa and at commercial rates elsewhere.

Technology tools are a complement to, not substitute for real engagement: Analysis of the Rights of Women Protocol petition showed that less than 10% of signatures had come via cell phones. It was the political legwork of going through the protocol in person with each individual that made the real difference to the outcome. This confirms Firoze's view that tools such as cell phones cannot create social change where there is no existing real-world network for them to tap into. We need to be wary of fetishizing technology tools, attributing to them powers they simply cannot have.

Technology, Froze argues, tends to reflect and amplify existing social relations. So while ICTs can enable people to voice their own experience in a way that was not available to them before, they can just as easily serve to shore up existing power structures.

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Autocracy Ten Years On: How Change Supports Continuity in Morocco and Jordan

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Hind Arroub is a Visiting Scholar at CDDRL in the calendar year 2010, affiliated with the Program on Good Governance and Political Reform in the Arab World, and an associate researcher at the Laboratory of Sociology "Culture et Societe en Europe", affiliated with the CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) and the University of Strasbourg in France. She has a PhD in Law and Political Science from Mohammed V University of Juridical, Economic and Social Sciences in Rabat. Her work takes an interdisciplinary approach to the study of international law, political and social sciences, human rights and media, and her research interests revolve around Morocco and the Arab World with a focus on: politics and religion, authoritarian regimes and democracy, riots and social movements, media freedom, human rights, and global politics' relationship to the Arab World. She is the author of "Revolutions in the Era of Humiliocracy" (with Mahdi El-Mandjra), "The ‘Makhzan' in Moroccan Political Culture" (2004) and "Approach to the Foundations of Legitimacy of the Moroccan Political System", published in November 2009.

Sean Yom is a Hewlett Postdoctoral Fellow at CDDRL at Stanford University. He finished his Ph.D. at the Department of Government at Harvard University in June 2009, with a dissertation entitled "Iron Fists in Silk Gloves: Building Political Regimes in the Middle East". His primary research explores the origins and durability of authoritarian regimes in this region, focusing on the historical interplay between early social conflicts and Western geopolitical interventions.

Richard and Rhoda Goldman Conference Room

Hind Arroub

616 Serra St.
Encina Hall, C151
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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hind_arroub.jpg PhD

Hind Arroub is a Visiting Scholar at CDDRL in the calendar year 2010, affiliated with the Program on Good Governance and Political Reform in the Arab World, and an associate researcher at the Laboratory of Sociology "Culture et Societe en Europe", affiliated with the CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) and the University of Strasbourg in France.

She has a PhD in Law and Political Science from Mohammed V University of Juridical, Economic and Social Sciences in Rabat. Her work takes an interdisciplinary approach to the study of international law, political and social sciences, human rights and media, and her research interests revolve around Morocco and the Arab World with a focus on: politics and religion, authoritarian regimes and democracy, riots and social movements, media freedom, human rights, and global politics' relationship to the Arab World (such as the Iraq war, international terrorism and the impact of globalization).

Hind was a lecturer in Hassan II University of Law in Casablanca where she taught "Constitutional Law and the Political". She has 10 years experience in journalism in Morocco and abroad, and is one of the founders of the Moroccan academic journal Wijhat Nadar (Point of view) and member of its editorial board and scientific committee. She is also a human rights activist. She has participated in, organized and managed a number of conferences, study days, colloquia, round tables, and workshops in Morocco and France.

Hind's first book "Revolutions in the Era of Humiliocracy'", co-authored with the Moroccan Professor of Futurism Mahdi El-Mandjra, addresses major questions of democracy in Morocco and the Arab world and other international issues related to the Middle East and North Africa region. 

She is also the author of "The ‘Makhzan' in Moroccan Political Culture" (2004) and "Approach to the Foundations of Legitimacy of the Moroccan Political System", published in November 2009.

Hind is also a poet, she has a poetry collection in Arabic called "Milad Nassim Assef" (Birth of a Stormy Breeze).

CV
Hind Arroub Speaker

Sean Yom

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CDDRL Hewlett Fellow 2009-2010
YOM_webphoto.jpg PhD

Sean Yom finished his Ph.D. at the Department of Government at Harvard University in June 2009, with a dissertation entitled "Iron Fists in Silk Gloves: Building Political Regimes in the Middle East." His primary research explores the origins and durability of authoritarian regimes in this region. His work contends that initial social conflicts driven by strategic Western interventions shaped the social coalitions constructed by autocratic incumbents to consolidate power in the mid-twentieth century--early choices that ultimately shaped the institutional carapaces and political fates of these governments. While at CDDRL, he will revise the dissertation in preparation for book publication, with a focus on expanding the theory to cover other post-colonial regions and states. His other research interests encompass contemporary political reforms in the Arab world, the historical architecture of Persian Gulf security, and US democracy promotion in the Middle East. Recent publications include articles in the Journal of Democracy, Middle East Report, Arab Studies Quarterly, and Arab Studies Journal.

Sean Yom Speaker
Seminars

The Rise of the New Global Economic Powers: How the United States Should Meet the Challenge

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Robert D. Hormats is the Under Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Agricultural Affairs.

Formerly, Mr. Hormats was the Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International from 1982 to 2009.

Mr. Hormats served as Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs from 1981 to 1982, as Ambassador and Deputy U.S. Trade Representative from 1979 to 1981, and as Senior Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs at the Department of State from 1977 to 1979. He served as a Senior Staff Member for International Economic Affairs on the National Security Council from 1969 to 1977, where he was Senior Economic Advisor to Dr. Henry Kissinger, General Brent Scowcroft, and Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski. Mr. Hormats was a recipient of the French Legion of Honor in 1982 and Arthur Fleming Award in 1974.

Mr. Hormats has been a visiting lecturer at Princeton University and is a member of the Board of Visitors of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and the Dean's Council of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a board member of the Irvington Institute for Immunological Research, Engelhard Hanovia, Inc., The Economic Club of New York, and Freedom House.

Mr. Hormats' publications include The Price of Liberty: Paying for America's Wars from the Revolution to the War on Terror; Abraham Lincoln and the Global Economy; American Albatross: The Foreign Debt Dilemma; and Reforming the International Monetary System. Mr. Hormats' articles have appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, American Banker, and The Financial Times.

Mr. Hormats earned a B.A. from Tufts University in 1965 with a concentration in economics and political science. In 1966 he earned an M.A. and, in 1970, a Ph.D. in international economics from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.

CISAC Conference Room

Robert Hormats Under Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Agricultural Affairs Speaker
Seminars
S.T. Lee Lectureship

Desalination of the American Diet: Population Strategies to Decrease Sodium Intake and the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease

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Background: Sodium consumption raises blood pressure, increasing the risk for heart attack and stroke. Several countries, including the United States, are considering strategies to decrease population sodium intake.

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of 2 population strategies to reduce sodium intake: government collaboration with food manufacturers to voluntarily cut sodium in processed foods, modeled on the United Kingdom experience, and a sodium tax.

Design: A Markov model was constructed with 4 health states: well, acute myocardial infarction (MI), acute stroke, and history of MI or stroke.

Data Sources: Medical Panel Expenditure Survey (2006), Framingham Heart Study (1980 to 2003), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension trial, and other published data.

Target Population: U.S. adults aged 40 to 85 years.

Time Horizon: Lifetime.

Perspective: Societal.

Outcome Measures: Incremental costs (2008 U.S. dollars), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and MIs and strokes averted.

Results of Base-case Analysis: Collaboration with industry that decreases mean population sodium intake by 9.5% averts 513 885 strokes and 480 358 MIs over the lifetime of adults aged 40 to 85 years who are alive today compared with the status quo, increasing QALYs by 2.1 million and saving $32.1 billion in medical costs. A tax on sodium that decreases population sodium intake by 6% increases QALYs by 1.3 million and saves $22.4 billion over the same period.

Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Results are sensitive to the assumption that consumers have no disutility with modest reductions in sodium intake.

Limitation: Efforts to reduce population sodium intake could result in other dietary changes that are difficult to predict.

Conclusion: Strategies to reduce sodium intake on a population level in the United States are likely to substantially reduce stroke and MI incidence, which would save billions of dollars in medical expenses.

Primary Funding Source: Department of Veterans Affairs, Stanford University, and the National Science Foundation.

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Publication Type
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Journal Publisher
Annals of Internal Medicine
Authors
Douglas K. Owens
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Evaluation of the Acceptability and Usability of a Decision Support System to Encourage Safe and Effective Use of Opioid Therapy for Chronic, Noncancer Pain by Primary Care Providers.

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Abstract Objective. To develop and evaluate a clinical decision support system (CDSS) named Assessment and Treatment in Healthcare: Evidenced-Based Automation (ATHENA)-Opioid Therapy, which encourages safe and effective use of opioid therapy for chronic, noncancer pain. Design. CDSS development and iterative evaluation using the analysis, design, development, implementation, and evaluation process including simulation-based and in-clinic assessments of usability for providers followed by targeted system revisions. Results. Volunteers provided detailed feedback to guide improvements in the graphical user interface, and content and design changes to increase clinical usefulness, understandability, clinical workflow fit, and ease of completing guideline recommended practices. Revisions based on feedback increased CDSS usability ratings over time. Practice concerns outside the scope of the CDSS were also identified. Conclusions. Usability testing optimized the CDSS to better address barriers such as lack of provider education, confusion in dosing calculations and titration schedules, access to relevant patient information, provider discontinuity, documentation, and access to validated assessment tools. It also highlighted barriers to good clinical practice that are difficult to address with CDSS technology in its current conceptualization. For example, clinicians indicated that constraints on time and competing priorities in primary care, discomfort in patient-provider communications, and lack of evidence to guide opioid prescribing decisions impeded their ability to provide effective, guideline-adherent pain management. Iterative testing was essential for designing a highly usable and acceptable CDSS; however, identified barriers may limit the impact of the ATHENA-Opioid Therapy system and other CDSS on clinical practices and outcomes unless CDSS are paired with parallel initiatives to address these issues.

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Publication Type
Journal Articles
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Pain Medicine
Authors
Mary K. Goldstein
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