Foreign Policy
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Ognen Stojanovski
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PESD has just released an 87-page case study of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), Mexico's national oil company. In "The Void of Governance: An Assessment of Pemex's Performance and Strategy," researcher Ognen Stojanovski examines how the state-owned company functions and details some of the profound challenges faced by reformers.

Mexico's Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, is the world's third-ranked company by oil production. Almost 40% of the Mexican government budget is derived from Pemex revenues, leaving the country highly exposed to a drop in oil prices and the company itself strapped for cash to support much-needed investment. At the same time, the company has been progressively de-skilled over the decades by an exclusive focus on financial returns for the government, constitutional restrictions on foreign participation in the oil sector, and suffocating interference by diverse government agencies and the powerful workers' union.

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Mexico's Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, is the world's third-ranked company by oil production. Almost 40% of the Mexican government budget is derived from Pemex revenues, leaving the country highly exposed to a drop in oil prices and the company itself strapped for cash to support much-needed investment. At the same time, the company has been progressively de-skilled over the decades by an exclusive focus on financial returns for the government, constitutional restrictions on foreign participation in the oil sector, and suffocating interference by diverse government agencies and the powerful workers' union.

In this case study, Ognen Stojanovski leverages extensive interviews with present and former Pemex and Mexican government insiders to paint a detailed picture of the organizational dynamics that drive Pemex's performance and strategy. Particularly important are the manifold interactions between Pemex and a host of intrusive, and yet ultimately non-strategic, government agencies, with the net result being extensive government interference and yet no actual government ownership of oil sector performance.

Facing a steep drop-off in the free-flowing oil from the Cantarell field that long provided easy revenues even in the face of weak organizational and technical capability, Pemex now finds itself scrambling to plug the production gap through new investments in exploration. At the same time, politically-popular constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership of Mexican hydrocarbons limit Pemex's ability to enlist foreign help to rapidly develop offshore oil. Current President (and former Energy Minister) Felipe Calderón recognizes the crises of finances, reserves, and oversight that are now facing Pemex, and on April 8, 2008 he proposed a set of reforms to the Mexican Senate. The PESD case study of Pemex elucidates what is needed on the reform front as well as the formidable obstacles that stand in front of Calderón as he attempts to remake Pemex into a strong performer.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #73
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Ognen Stojanovski
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Arms races among invertebrates, intelligence gathering by the immune system and alarm calls by marmots are but a few of nature’s security strategies that have been tested and modified over billions of years. This provocative book applies lessons from nature to our own toughest security problems—from global terrorism to the rise of infectious disease to natural disasters. Written by a truly multidis­ciplinary group including paleobiologists, anthropologists, psychologists, ecologists, and national security experts, it considers how models and ideas from evolutionary biology can improve national security strategies ranging from risk assessment, security analysis, and public policy to long-term strategic goals.

Terence Taylor is the President and Director of the International Council for the Life Sciences and a former CISAC Science Fellow. He previously served with the United Nations as a Commissioner and Chief Inspector for Iraq on weapons of mass destruction and was a career officer in the British army. He also serves on the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Forum on Microbial Threats and is an adviser to the International Committee of the Red Cross. Mr. Taylor was also a member of the National Research Council Steering Committee on Genomic Databases for Bioterrorism Threat Agents and served as Chairman of the Permanent Monitoring Panel on Risk Analysis of the World Federation of Scientists.

Raphael Sagarin received his Ph.D. in marine ecology in 2001 from the University of California, Santa Barbara. Dr. Sagarin has served as a Geological Society of America congressional science advisor in the office of U.S. Representative Hilda L. Solis. Dr. Sagarin has used his insights as a biologist and policy advisor in his recent work on using biological insights to guide security planning and policy. Based on a short treatment of this topic in Foreign Policy, he organized a working group at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis to explore a wide range of evolutionary insights into security analysis. Comprised of paleobiologists, psychologists, ecologists, anthropologists and security experts, the working group produced the forthcoming University of California Press volume: Natural Security: A Darwinian Approach to a Dangerous World, edited by Dr. Sagarin and Terence Taylor.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Terence Taylor Director Speaker International Council for the Life Sciences
Raphael Sagarin Associate Director for Ocean and Coastal Policy, Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University Speaker
Seminars
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The rise of China and India is unparalleled in human history because never before has the world witnessed the simultaneous and consistent takeoffs of two nations, accounting for more one third of the planet’s population, which have been consistently registering high growth rates for two decades. Their rise has profound implications for the world economy and world politics. Both China and India – the two new big kids on the block – have no difficulty with a rule-based world order, what they want is “a different set of rules”. 

The rise of China and India represents both challenges and opportunities for Europe. Rising powers like China and India are challenging the European Union. They will be in a position to shape and influence global agendas and decisions to a greater extent than at present. For both, Europe will remain an indispensable partner since it is a vital source of trade, advanced technology and foreign direct investment. China and India do pose challenges for Europe, but they also provide opportunities since their growth contributes to greater growth worldwide, which means more exports, especially to a swelling consumerist middle class, which will make more demands of European goods, technology, and services.

Rajendra K Jain is Professor of European Studies and Chairperson, Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He is Secretary-General, Indian Association for European Union Studies. He has been Visiting Professor at Leipzig and Tuebingen University and at the Maison des Sciences de l’Homme, Paris. He is the author/editor of over two dozen books and has published 70 articles/chapters in books. He has most recently published India and the European Union: Building a Strategic Partnership (2007) (editor).

Philippines Conference Room

Rajendra Jain Professor, European Studies; Chairperson, Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies Speaker Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
Seminars
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Former World Bank Tobacco Control Coordinator Joy de Beyer will give her perspective on the tobacco epidemic.

Anthropology, Building 50, Room 51A
450 Serra Mall
(Inner Quad, next to Memorial Church)

Joy de Beyer Former World Bank Tobacco Control Coordinator; Senior Knowledge Management Officer Speaker Human Development Network, Global HIV/AIDS Program with Specialization in the Economics of Tobacco
Lectures
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This is a Special Edition of the Asian Leaders Forum.

Alejandro Toledo was democratically-elected president of Peru in July 2001, and held that post until July 2006. He was also the first democratically elected Peruvian president of indigenous descent in 500 years. Raised in extreme poverty in the remote Peruvian Andes, Toledo first appeared on the international political scene in 1996 when he formed and led a broad democratic coalition in the streets of Peru to bring down the autocratic regime of Alberto Fujimori. This coalition had the support of the international democratic community.

Before becoming president, Dr. Toledo worked for the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington, and the United Nations in New York. During his academic years, Professor Toledo was a visiting scholar and a research associate at Harvard University and Waseda University in Tokyo. He is currently an economics professor (on leave) at the University of ESAN in Peru. He received his PhD at Stanford University in economics.

Kantathi Suphamongkhon served as Thailand’s 39th minister of foreign affairs. He also served as Thailand’s trade representative, which was an equivalent position to Trade Minister in the cabinet. Dr. Kantathi was twice elected as a member of the Thai House of Representatives. He has also served as foreign affairs adviser to the prime minister of Thailand as well as foreign affairs adviser to the president of the Thai parliament.

During his diplomatic career, he represented Thailand at the United Nations for four years. He has also served as chairman of Human Security Network. Currently, Dr. Kantathi is University of California Regents’ Professor at UCLA, as well as senior fellow at the Burkle Center for International Relations at UCLA.

Michael Armacost was the United States ambassador to the Philippines and to Japan. From 1982 to 1984, he served as U.S. ambassador to the Philippines, and was a key force in helping the country undergo a nonviolent transition to democracy. In 1989, President George Bush tapped him to become ambassador to Japan, considered one of the most important and sensitive U.S. diplomatic posts abroad.

Armacost began his career in academia, as a professor of government at Pomona College. Following a stint on the State Department policy planning and coordination staff, he became a special assistant to the U.S. ambassador in Tokyo from 1972-74, his first foreign diplomatic post. Thereafter, he held senior Asian affairs and international security posts in the State Department, Defense Department, and the National Security Council. From 1995 to 2002, Armacost served as president of Washington DC's Brookings Institution. Since 2002, he has been the Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. Dr. Armacost received his PhD from Columbia University in public law and government.

Bechtel Conference Center

Alejandro Toledo President of Peru, 2001-2005 and Payne Lecturer, FSI, 2007-2008 Speaker
Kantathi Suphamongkhon Thailand's 39th Foreign Minister and 2006-2008 Senior Fellow Speaker Burkle Center, University of California, Los Angeles
Michael H. Armacost former US Ambassador to Japan and the Philippines and Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow Moderator Shorenstein APARC, FSI
Lectures
The rise of China and India is unparalleled in human history because never before has the world witnessed the simultaneous and consistent takeoffs of two nations, accounting for more one third of the planet’s population, which have been consistently registering high growth rates for two decades. Their rise has profound implications for the world economy and world politics. Both China and India – the two new big kids on the block – have no difficulty with a rule-based world order, what they want is “a different set of rules”.

European political elites seem to be indulging in a degree of scapegoating about the danger from “ChinIndia”, since the roots of European angst really lie, among others, in European difficulties in managing globalization, declining competitiveness, fear of change, and an unsustainable health, pension and social welfare system. The Europeans tends to perceive the Chinese juggernaut as a direct immediate threat to European jobs in some manufacturing sectors whereas India is seen as a latent and potential threat taking away service-sector jobs, though pressures would increase as both move up the value chain.

The European Union’s strategic partnership with China and India is essentially driven by trade and commerce. India has too much of catching up to do with China. India is clearly in the Commonwealth Games league whereas China is in the Olympic Games league.

The rise of China and India represents both challenges and opportunities for Europe. Rising powers like China and India are challenging the European Union. They will be in a position to shape and influence global agendas and decisions to a greater extent than at present. For both, Europe will remain an indispensable partner since it is a vital source of trade, advanced technology and foreign direct investment. China and India do pose challenges for Europe, but they also provide opportunities since their growth contributes to greater growth worldwide, which means more exports, especially to a swelling consumerist middle class, which will make more demands of European goods, technology, and services.

Rajendra K Jain is Professor of European Studies and Chairperson, Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He is Secretary-General, Indian Association for European Union Studies. He has been Visiting Professor at Leipzig and Tuebingen university and at the Maison des Sciences de l’Homme, Paris. He is the author/editor of over two dozen books and has published 70 articles/chapters in books. He has most recently published India and the European Union: Building a Strategic Partnership (2007) (editor).

Philippines Conference Room

Rajendra K. Jain Professor of European Studies and Chairperson, Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Speaker
Seminars
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Civil Islam - Beyond the Headlines     

A lecture and three seminars by Robert W. Hefner, 2008 NUS-Stanford Lee Kong Chian Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC and Professor of Anthropology, Boston University 

April 28 - May 1, 2008 

Media coverage of Islam and Muslims, especially since 9/11, has featured violence and the threat of violence.  In his opening lecture and three seminars to follow, Prof. Hefner will explore a different reality "beyond the headlines."  Is there a "civil Islam"?  Are Islam and democracy compatible?  Is "Islamism" always radical, or can it be democratic?  How does Muslim schooling affect the answers to these questions?  Prof. Hefner will also look beyond the media's focus on the Middle East to examine the interactions between Islam, Muslims, and democracy in Southeast Asia.  

This is the third and final seminar in this series scheduled with Dr. Hefner.

Robert W. Hefner's latest books include Schooling Islam (co-ed., 2007); Remaking Muslim Politics (ed., 2005); and Civil Islam (2000). He is the invited editor of the sixth volume of the forthcoming New Cambridge History of Islam, Muslims and Modernity: Society and Culture since 1800.  He directs the program on Islam and civil society at Boston University since 1991. 

All four events are co-sponsored by the the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, the Stanford Humanities Center, and the Southeast Asia Forum in the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University.

The Board Room
Humanities Center
424 Santa Teresa Street
Stanford University
Stanford, CA

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Distinguished Fellow on Southeast Asia
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Robert William Hefner, professor of anthropology and associate director of the Institute on Culture, Religion, and World Affairs at Boston University, is the inaugural Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Distinguished Fellow on Southeast Asia.

Professor Hefner has been associate director of the Institute on Culture, Religion, and World Affairs at Boston University, where he has directed the program on Islam and civil society since 1991. Hefner has carried out research on religion and politics in Southeast Asia for the past thirty years, and has authored or edited a fourteen books, as well as several major policy reports for private and public foundations. His most recent books include, Schooling Islam: The Culture and Politics of Modern Muslim Education (edited with Muhammad Qasim Zaman, Princeton 2007); ed., Remaking Muslim Politics: Pluralism, Contestation, Democratization (Princeton 2005), ed., and Civil Islam: Muslims and Democratization in Indonesia (Princeton 2000). Hefner is also the invited editor for the sixth volume of the forthcoming New Cambridge History of Islam, Muslims and Modernity: Society and Culture since 1800.

Hefner is currently writing a book on Islamic education, democratization, and political violence in Indonesia. The research and writing locate the Indonesian example in the culture and politics of the broader Muslim world. His book also revisits the the question of the role of religious and secular knowledge in modernity.

Hefner will divide his time between Boston University, the National University of Singapore, and Stanford, where he will teach a seminar during the spring quarter.

Robert W. Hefner 2008 NUS-Stanford Lee Kong Chian Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC and Professor of Anthropology, Boston University Speaker
Conferences
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