America has done more than any other country to change the world. Yet, paradoxically, America is one of the countries least prepared to handle the world that it has changed. America has sprinkled magical stardust into the eyes of billions. It has made them believe that they too can succeed and thrive. Yet the world order remains frozen in time. The multilateral architecture is a fossilization of the 1945 power structure. The world has changed. But its structures have not. Global contradictions are emerging. America should begin to prepare itself for them. Ambassador Mahbubani will explore and discuss these and related ideas drawn from his latest book (forthcoming in 2005). Kishore Mahbubani modestly describes himself as ?a student of philosophy.? Others, less modest, have called him ?an Asian Toynbee, preoccupied with the rise and fall of civilizations? (The Economist) and a ?Max Weber of the new ?Confucian ethic?? (Washington Post). Without question he is one of Asia?s leading public intellectuals. His many publications include the provocatively titled Can Asians Think? (1998). His thirty-year career as a diplomat has included postings in Cambodia, Malaysia, and the United States. He was president of the UN Security Council in January 2001 and May 2002 and a fellow at Harvard University in 1991-92. He holds degrees in philosophy from Dalhousie University (1976) and the University of Singapore (1971). This is the tenth Southeast Asia Forum seminar of the 2003-2004 academic year.

How do states know what lies in their national interest? Hironaka explores this issue through examination of colonial expansion, and other domains of state security and power. Given the critical role of interests in many social theories, surprisingly little research has been done on the question. Scholars routinely avoid the issue by inferring interests from observed action in a post-hoc and often tautological manner. Instead, Hironaka draws on organizational sociology as a starting point: Large organizational actors like states often experience great ambiguity regarding their interests. States function in a complex political and social world in which both state interests and the means of achieving those interests are often unclear. Hironaka proposes that states respond to this ambiguity by attending to and participating in discourses in the international community. Collective interaction revolving around interpretation of the "Great Powers" and significant international events (such as the outcome of major wars) provide the grist for an evolving international consensus regarding appropriate state strategies and behavior. When faced with ambiguity, states draw upon the international consensus to inform their interests. Consequently, the international community plays a critical role in shaping state policies -- and thus the conflicts that are likely to arise in the international system. Ann Hironaka is an assistant professor of Sociology at the University of Minnesota.