FSI scholars produce research aimed at creating a safer world and examing the consequences of security policies on institutions and society. They look at longstanding issues including nuclear nonproliferation and the conflicts between countries like North and South Korea. But their research also examines new and emerging areas that transcend traditional borders – the drug war in Mexico and expanding terrorism networks. FSI researchers look at the changing methods of warfare with a focus on biosecurity and nuclear risk. They tackle cybersecurity with an eye toward privacy concerns and explore the implications of new actors like hackers.
Along with the changing face of conflict, terrorism and crime, FSI researchers study food security. They tackle the global problems of hunger, poverty and environmental degradation by generating knowledge and policy-relevant solutions.
Payne Distinguished Lecture Series 2009 Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence and National Security, Lecture 2: Spies Collect Data, Analysts Provide Insight
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Thomas Fingar, the 2009 Payne Distinguished Lecturer and former Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, gave the second 2009 Payne Distinguished Lecture on Tuesday, May 19, 2009, in the Bechtel Conference Center, 616 Serra Street.
The theme for the 2009-10 series is Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence and National Security. Dr. Fingar's second lecture was titled "Spies Collect Data, Analysts Provide Insight."
Dr. Thomas Fingar is Payne Distinguished Lecturer in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. From May 2005 through December 2008, he served as the first Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and, concurrently, as Chairman of the National Intelligence Council.
Dr. Fingar served previously as Assistant Secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary (2001-2003), Deputy Assistant Secretary for Analysis (1994-2000), Director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-1994), and Chief of the China Division (1986-1989). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including Senior Research Associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control. Dr. Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in Political Science).
The Payne Lectureship is named for Frank E. Payne and Arthur W. Payne, brothers who gained an appreciation for global problems through their international business operations.
The Payne Distinguished Lecturer is chosen for his or her international reputation as a leader, with an emphasis on visionary thinking; a broad, practical grasp of a given field; and the capacity to clearly articulate an important perspective on the global community and its challenges.
Bechtel Conference Center
Thomas Fingar
Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C-327
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
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tfingar@stanford.edu
Shorenstein APARC Fellow
Affiliated Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford in 2009.
From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Fingar served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-01 and 2004-05), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001-03), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994-2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-94), and chief of the China Division (1986-89). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.
Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in political science). His most recent books are From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform (Stanford University Press, 2021), Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011), The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, editor (Stanford University Press, 2016), Uneasy Partnerships: China and Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (Stanford, 2017), and Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China’s Future, co-edited with Jean Oi (Stanford, 2020). His most recent article is, "The Role of Intelligence in Countering Illicit Nuclear-Related Procurement,” in Matthew Bunn, Martin B. Malin, William C. Potter, and Leonard S Spector, eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology (Cambridge, 2018)."
China and the World
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Richard Roberts
History Department
Bldg. 200, Rm 211
Stanford, CA 94305-2024
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rroberts@stanford.edu
Frances & Charles Field Professor in History and Professor of African History
Director of the Center for African Studies
and CDDRL Affiliated Faculty
Richard Roberts is the Frances & Charles Field Professor in History and African History, and Director of the Center for African Studies at Stanford University. He is also affiliated with the Center for Comparative Studies in Race and Ethnicity (CCRSE). Roberts is one of the world's experts on the social and economic history of French West Africa and has been teaching African history to Stanford students since 1980.
His current research interest is the social history of everyday life during the 25 years surrounding French conquest of the interior of West Africa-especially how colonial conquest and the establishment of colonial rule ushered in changes in African societies and economies.
Some of his Courses include: Africa in the 20th Century, The End of Slavery in Africa and the Americas, Law in Colonial Africa, African Identities in a Changing World, and Core Colloquium on Precolonial African History. Some recent publications include: Two World of Cotton: French Colonialism and the Regional Economy of the French Soudan, 1800-1946 (Stanford, 1996), Cotton, Colonialism, and Social History in Sub-Saharan Africa, with Allen Isaacman (Heinemann, 1995), and Domestic Violence and the Law in Africa: Historical and Contemporary Perspectives (Ohio University Press, forthcoming) with Emily Burrill and Elizabeth Thornberry.
Roberts received his Ph.D. from the University of Toronto in 1978, his M.A. at Simon Fraser University in 1973, and his B.A. at the University of Wisonsin in 1970.
The New Global Architecture - Where Europe Fits In
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Ambassador Sheinwald discusses how he envisages international relations will form in the near and far future. He places particular emphasis on the growing importance of the US-China relationship. At the same time, Ambassador Sheinwald explores the EU as a key global power and its necessary cooperation with the US.
Synopsis
Ambassador Sheinwald clearly feels that the international stage is moving. In fact, for him, the change in the international order is accelerating due to the global financial crisis. In this sense, Ambassador Sheinwald explains that the UK has long supported expanding decision-making international institutions such as the UN Security Council. However, the UK still sees the value in intimate, power-focused bodies such as the G8. Ambassador Sheinwald discusses the fact that there is increasingly a sense that a ‘G2’ is developing between the US and China. To Ambassador Sheinwald, this model would not literally work as he argues China needs, at this stage in its development, a multilateral setting to grow into the active and cooperative power we would all like to see it become. At the same time, Ambassador Sheinwald believes that the partnership between the US and China is important in paving a solution to the current economic state and shaping the future global economy. In fact, the UK and the EU welcome this new cooperation between the two powers. Ambassador Sheinwald feels the US and the EU can harness China’s shared global interest on issues such as climate change, in which the EU has played a front role, to develop at stable global relationship. Moreover, he believes that if the US and EU can cooperate to form low carbon economies, it could incentivize China and India to act similarly. However, Ambassador Sheinwald stresses that for non-economic issues the US and China’s relationship is still important but slow moving, and he expresses the belief that it will take decades for any real ‘G2’ to emerge.
In the meantime, Ambassador Sheinwald argues that while the US looks round the world for support on key issues, it will find that the EU shares the most values and has the capacity to promote them. He cites the enormous investments between the two in comparison to the US and China to show the scale of the US and the EU’s relationship. Ambassador Sheinwald argues that financially the US and EU need regulatory cooperation, using a scientific basis, to set global standards. He stresses as well that the EU is a major global power on its own. It is increasingly seen as an honest, multilateral broker and plays a crucial in global economic recovery. Moreover, it has strong interest in fighting world terrorism. In comparison to other partners, the US can find similar values, intelligence, and capacity in the EU. In addition, the US can see more stability in Europe’s own backyard than perhaps 20 years ago. Looking to the future, Ambassador Sheinwald hopes that the Lisbon Treaty would help the EU organize itself further. Further stressing the importance of the US-EU partnership, Ambassador Sheinwald explains “nothing is more likely to be as dependable a foundation.”
In taking the time to answer questions, Ambassador Sheinwald discusses a number of issues. One partiuclar area of focus much emphasized was Europe's role in the conflict in Afghanistan. In addition, he addresses the issue of Britain and the US's relationship with China. Moreover, he also explains that he hopes that as developed countries deal with increasing security threats, their resolve in keeping their borders open will remain strong. Finally, Ambassador Sheinwald stresses the need to employ methods of sustainable, intelligent, and low carbon growth.
About the Speaker
Nigel Sheinwald joined the British Diplomatic Service in 1976 and has served in Washington (twice), Brussels (twice) and Moscow and in a wide range of policy jobs in London.
He took up his position as British Ambassador to the United States in October 2007. In that role he leads the Embassy in Washington and nine Consulates-General around the United States. He had an earlier posting to Washington in 1983-87 as First Secretary (Political) in the Embassy.
Before becoming Ambassador in Washington, Sir Nigel served as Foreign Policy and Defence Adviser to the Prime Minister from 2003-2007.
Sir Nigel was the UK Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the European Union in Brussels from 2000-2003. Before that he was Europe Director in the FCO (1998-2000). He had an earlier posting in the UK Representation in 1993-95 as Head of its Political and Institutional Section. He began his career in EU work as Deputy Head of the FCO's European Union Department in 1989-92.
Sir Nigel's first foreign posting was in Moscow in 1978-79. He was also Head of the Foreign Office's Anglo-Soviet Section in 1981-83.
Sir Nigel has had a wide variety of other appointments in the FCO in London. From 1995-98, he was the FCO Press Secretary and Head of News Department. He was Deputy Head of the Foreign Office's Policy Planning Staff in 1987-1989, responsible for transatlantic relations and other issues. He also worked in London on the Japan Desk (1976-77) and on Zimbabwe (1979-81), including the Lancaster House Conference.
Sir Nigel was born in 1953 and educated at Harrow County Grammar School and Balliol College, Oxford. He is married with three sons.
This event is jointly sponsored by the Office for International Visitors at the Bechtel International Center, the Forum on Contemporary Europe, and the British Consulate General in San Francisco.
CISAC Conference Room
Sir Nigel Sheinwald
British Ambassador to the United States
Speaker
Seminars
Energy, Markets, and Geopolitics
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As part of "The Geopolitics of Energy" seminar series at Harvard's Belfer Center for International Studies, Thomas Fingar, 2009 Payne Distinguished Lecturer, and the nation's first Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council (2005-08), delivered a talk titled "Energy, Markets, and Geopolitics."
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Bioelectricity promises more 'miles per acre' than ethanol, Science study finds
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[See video interview with Chris Field and David Lobell here].
Biofuels such as ethanol offer an alternative to petroleum for powering our cars, but growing energy crops to produce them can compete with food crops for farmland, and clearing forests to expand farmland will aggravate the climate change problem. How can we maximize our "miles per acre" from biomass?
Researchers writing in
the May 7, 2009, edition of the journal Science say the best bet is to
convert the biomass to electricity rather than ethanol. They calculate
that, compared to ethanol used for internal combustion engines,
bioelectricity used for battery-powered vehicles would deliver an
average of 80 percent more miles of transportation per acre of crops,
while also providing double the greenhouse gas offsets to mitigate
climate change.
"It's a relatively obvious question once you ask it, but nobody had really asked it before," said study co-author Christopher B. Field, director of the Department of Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institution.
"The kinds of motivations that have driven people to think about
developing ethanol as a vehicle fuel have been somewhat different from
those that have been motivating people to think about battery electric
vehicles, but the overlap is in the area of maximizing efficiency and
minimizing adverse impacts on climate."
Field, who is
also a professor of biology at Stanford University and a senior fellow
at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment, is part of a
research team that includes lead author Elliott Campbell of the University of California-Merced and David Lobell of Stanford's Program on Food Security and the Environment.
Bioelectricity vs. ethanol
The
researchers performed a life-cycle analysis of both bioelectricity and
ethanol technologies, taking into account not only the energy produced
by each technology, but also the energy consumed in producing the
vehicles and fuels. For the analysis, they used publicly available data
on vehicle efficiencies from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
and other organizations.
Bioelectricity was the clear
winner in the transportation-miles-per-acre comparison, regardless of
whether the energy was produced from corn or from switchgrass, a
cellulose-based energy crop. For example, a small SUV powered by
bioelectricity could travel nearly 14,000 highway miles on the net
energy produced from an acre of switchgrass, while a comparable
internal combustion vehicle could only travel about 9,000 miles on the
highway. (Average mileage for both city and highway driving would be
15,000 miles for a biolelectric SUV and 8,000 miles for an internal
combustion vehicle.)
"The internal combustion engine just isn't very efficient, especially
when compared to electric vehicles," said Campbell. "Even the best
ethanol-producing technologies with hybrid vehicles aren't enough to
overcome this."
Climate change
The
researchers found that bioelectricity and ethanol also differed in
their potential impact on climate change. "Some approaches to bioenergy
can make climate change worse, but other limited approaches can help
fight climate change," said Campbell. "For these beneficial
approaches, we could do more to fight climate change by making
electricity than making ethanol."
The energy from
an acre of switchgrass used to power an electric vehicle would prevent
or offset the release of up to 10 tons of CO2 per acre, relative to a
similar-sized gasoline-powered car. Across vehicle types and different
crops, this offset averages more than 100 percent larger for the
bioelectricity than for the ethanol pathway. Bioelectricity also offers
more possibilities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions through
measures such as carbon capture and sequestration, which could be
implemented at biomass power stations but not individual internal
combustion vehicles.
While the results of the study clearly favor bioelectricity over
ethanol, the researchers caution that the issues facing society in
choosing an energy strategy are complex. "We found that converting
biomass to electricity rather than ethanol makes the most sense for two
policy-relevant issues: transportation and climate," said Lobell. "But
we also need to compare these options for other issues like water
consumption, air pollution, and economic costs."
"There is a big strategic decision our country and others are making:
whether to encourage development of vehicles that run on ethanol or
electricity," said Campbell. "Studies like ours could be used to ensure
that the alternative energy pathways we chose will provide the most
transportation energy and the least climate change impacts."
This research was funded through a grant from the Stanford Global Climate and Energy Project, with additional support from the Stanford Program on Food Security and the Environment, UC-Merced, the Carnegie Institution for Science, and a NASA New Investigator Grant.
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Research Presentations by Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows (Session 4)
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In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:
Jun Ding, “Corporate Social Responsibility in State-Owned Enterprises”
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play an important role in China’s industrialization achievement and support social service functions in the planning era. After China entered the marketing era, SOEs declined substantially and are in need of reform. Ding believes SOEs should be restructured and that supernumeraries and social services functions should be separated from the primary mission of SOEs into society. Ding’s research emphasizes recommendations found in corporate social responsibility that exists in China.
Mitsutoshi Kumagai, “Impact on Growing On-line Video Services on Pay TV Business Model”
Recently, YouTube is not the only online video service many people enjoy. Big players of traditional broadcasting industries are making strategic approaches in online space. Kumagai’s presentation reviews and assesses those challenges in TV industries and its value as advertisement media.
Tadashi Ogino, “Smart Meters in the United States and Japan”
A smart meter is an advanced electric meter that measures the electricity usage in more detail than a conventional meter. Utility companies and customers can use this data for energy efficiency. A smart meter is a key component for the next generation electric grid. Many smart meters have already been installed in the US, but smart meters are not used in Japan. Ogino analyzes the current situation of smart meter projects in the US and in Japan. He tries to understand why smart meters are not prominent in Japan.
Ayaka Takashima, "Women Entrepreneurs in Japan and the United States”
Recently in Japan, women entrepreneurs have been becoming one of the career choices for women. As an employee of Nissouken, which provides entrepreneurship program, Takashima is trying to reveal women entrepreneurs' habitat and tendency through comparative research.
Philippines Conference Room
Jun Ding
Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, PetroChina
Speaker
Mitsutoshi Kumagai
Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Sumitomo Corporation
Speaker
Tadashi Ogino
Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Mitsubishi Electric
Speaker
Ayaka Takashima
Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Nissoken
Speaker
Seminars