FSI scholars produce research aimed at creating a safer world and examing the consequences of security policies on institutions and society. They look at longstanding issues including nuclear nonproliferation and the conflicts between countries like North and South Korea. But their research also examines new and emerging areas that transcend traditional borders – the drug war in Mexico and expanding terrorism networks. FSI researchers look at the changing methods of warfare with a focus on biosecurity and nuclear risk. They tackle cybersecurity with an eye toward privacy concerns and explore the implications of new actors like hackers.
Along with the changing face of conflict, terrorism and crime, FSI researchers study food security. They tackle the global problems of hunger, poverty and environmental degradation by generating knowledge and policy-relevant solutions.
Steven Robins is an anthropologist from Stellenbosch University in South Africa whose research covers issues of governance, citizenship, and social mobilization in post-conflict societies. Robins will give lectures and seminars based on his forthcoming book, From Revolution in South Africa: Social Movement, NGOs and Popular Politics.
The international visitors seminar series provides an opportunity for the Humanities Center's international scholars in residence to engage with the Stanford community by presenting and discussing their recent work in a congenial environment. Stanford faculty, students, and affiliates meet over lunch to hear a brief, informal presentation and engage in vigorous discussion. The series seeks to foster the exchange of ideas across borders and across disciplines, with the particular goal of enhancing interactions between researchers in the humanities and the social scientists.
Levinthal Hall
Steven Robbins
Associate Professor, Department of Sociology and Social Anthropology, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa; FSI-Humanities Center International Visitor, 2009-2010
Speaker
Anne Simonin is a historian at the CNRS in the IRICE lab (Identités, Relations Internationales, et Civilisations de l’Europe), which is affiliated with the universities of Paris I and IV. During her visit, she will focus on her latest groundbreaking work, published in 2008, Le Déshonneur dans la République, devoted to the concept of “indignity” in a cultural and legal context from the French Revolution to the emergence of the Fifth Republic (1789-1958).
The international visitors seminar series provides an opportunity for the Humanities Center's international scholars in residence to engage with the Stanford community by presenting and discussing their recent work in a congenial environment. Stanford faculty, students, and affiliates meet over lunch to hear a brief, informal presentation and engage in vigorous discussion. The series seeks to foster the exchange of ideas across borders and across disciplines, with the particular goal of enhancing interactions between researchers in the humanities and the social scientists.
Levinthal Hall
Anne Simonin
Historian, CNRS, IRICE Laboratory, University of La Sorbonne, Paris; FSI-Humanities Center International Visitor, 2009-2010
Speaker
In December 2009, the Asia Health Policy Program celebrates the first anniversary of the launch of the AHPP working paper series on health and demographic change in the Asia-Pacific. The series showcases research by AHPP’s own affiliated faculty, postdoctoral fellows, and visiting scholars, as well as selected works by other scholars from the region.
To date AHPP has released eleven research papers in the series, by authors from China, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Pakistan, and the US, with more on the way from Japan and Vietnam. Topics range from “The Effect of Informal Caregiving on Labor Market Outcomes in South Korea” and “Comparing Public and Private Hospitals in China,” to “Pandemic Influenza and the Globalization of Public Health.” The working papers are available at the Asia Health Policy website.
AHPP considers quality research papers from leading research universities and think tanks across the Asia-Pacific region for inclusion in the working paper series. If interested, please contact Karen Eggleston.
Since the 1990's the US Department of Defense has been
pioneering the development of more coherent approaches to improve the
coordination of complex technologies, program, policies, and
institutions. Among the most significant and influential of these new approaches
is Systems of Systems, which is an interdisciplinary field that focuses on
organizing independent stand-alone components into more integrated solutions.
As one of the developers of this concept, Bill will draw on
his expertise to review the history of this emerging field, summarize its major
scientific and practical features, describe examples of its application in DoD
and other arenas, and explore its relevance to a variety of technical and
non-technical issues affecting security concerns.
Bill Reckmeyer is Professor of Leadership and Systems at San José State University, Faculty Chair of the International Study Program on Global Citizenship at the Salzburg Global Seminar, and a Visiting Professor at CISAC. A systems scientist/cybernetician whose work emphasizes collaborative approaches to problematic organizational, national, and global issues, his research and consulting have focused on leading multi-year strategic planning efforts in diverse institutional settings and conducting senior-level policy studies on national strategy for the US Department of Defense.
During the 1990s Bill co-authored several studies on Revitalizing America for OSD's Office of Net Assessment, which originated the ideas for systems of systems approaches to address hyper-complex concerns whose resolution require the integration of independent complex systems. From 2003-2006 he served as Chief Systems Scientist for the Systems of Systems Center of Excellence, which was established by Congress and funded by DoD to lead national efforts at developing more integrative solutions to interconnected challenges affecting defense acquisition and logistics, national security, homeland security, and international affairs.
Prior to joining Stanford Bill also held posts as a Visiting Professor or a Senior Fellow at Harvard, Southern California, Maryland, Stockholm, St. Gallen, Aveiro, and several other major universities in the United States and Europe. He currently serves as Strategic Advisor to the California Levees Roundtable and as a Core Faculty member in the CA Agricultural Leadership Program.
A former President of the American Society for Cybernetics in 1983-1985, Bill was a Kellogg National Leadership Fellow in 1988-1992 and a Salzburg Global Fellow on five occasions from 1995-2004. He earned his PhD in Russian Studies at American University in 1982 and completed several advanced leadership programs at Harvard University from 1990-1995.
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
William Reckmeyer
CISAC Visiting Professor
Speaker
On Thursday, Dec. 3, Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Ca., presented Scott Sagan an award for his "Outstanding Contribution to Nonproliferation Education" at the center's 20th anniversary conference. Mukhatzhanova described Sagan as "truly one of the rock stars of our field."
The text of Mukhatzhanova's remarks follows:
"There are different kinds of distinguished people within the nonproliferation and disarmament community: some commit to government work and excel at policy making; others become career diplomats and negotiate treaties to advance international peace and security, and then there are those who devote themselves to academia and teaching.
"While we admire the work of policymakers and diplomats, it is the last category - the educators - who influence most directly the younger generations of specialists. Through their articles, their classes, and advising, they play a great role in shaping the future of disarmament and nonproliferation. This award honors an outstanding educator.
"Each of us became involved in this field for different reasons, and was affected by various works. But for me personally, the fascination and love of the subject began with the three models in search of a bomb. (You probably now know who I'm talking about.) I was lucky to subsequently meet our award recipient, have him review my paper, and even work with him on the same book project. I knew I reached a certain milestone in my career when he said I could call him Scott.
With almost 25 years of teaching experience, having taught 16 different courses and chaired eight PhD dissertation committees (that's not to mention his head-spinning list of publications), he is truly one of the rock stars of our field. And you can tell that he is a teacher when at a busy conference full of big shots, you'll find him talking to younger people, discussing their papers, their research interests and their plans.
Dr. Sagan, we, the new generation, greatly appreciate your advice and attention. And we cheer for you in the debate on the spread of nuclear weapons and the no-first-use policy.
So today, it is my honor to present the CNS Award for Outstanding Contribution to Nonproliferation Education to Dr. Scott Sagan, Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Co-Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation."
Kieran Oberman's research focuses on the ethical implications of international migration. My thesis, "Immigration and Freedom of Movement", argued that people have a human right to freedom of movement that entails a right to cross borders. I conceded however that there may be extreme circumstances under which immigration restrictions could be justified. In my post-doctoral work at Stanford I wish to consider this question of justified restrictions in more detail by focussing on the particular issue of medical brain drain from developing countries. We know that medical brain can have devastating consequences so it may constitute justified grounds for restriction. Another area of research I wish to focus on is the treatment of migrants after they have arrived within their state of destination. I wish to consider, for instance, whether migrants must be granted equal rights to citizens and if so after how long and under what conditions. The research I shall undertake in these areas will be included in an eventual book project on the ethics of immigration policy.
This paper
presents data from six of the first countries incorporated into the
Agricultural Lives of the Poor project: Ghana, Guatemala, India, Malawi, Uganda,
and Vietnam. Datasets were selected
based on availability and depth of detail on consumption expenditures, sources
of income, and agricultural practices. Each of these survey components is necessary in order for ALP
to focus on net consumption/production at the household level, and to
understand expenditure and consumption behavior. Net consumption and production data of individual crops and
food groups is further disaggregated by subgroups formed on characteristics
that include economic status, household attributes, livelihood strategies,
calories available, landholding, tenure types, and agricultural input use.
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Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University
Martha Crenshaw, a senior fellow at FSI's Center for International Security and
Cooperation, testified Thursday, November 19, before the House
Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk
Assessment on the subject of "Reassessing the Evolving al-Qa'ida Threat
to the Homeland." Crenshaw, who recently launched a three-year effort
to build a global database of terrorist 'family trees,' was joined by
three terrorism experts at the hearing in Washington, D.C.
Berkeley and Stanford - Climate change could increase the likelihood of civil war in sub-Saharan Africa by over 50 percent within the next two decades, according to a new study led by a team of researchers at University of California, Berkeley, Stanford University, New York University and Harvard University, and published in today's (Monday, Nov. 23) online issue of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
The study provides the first quantitative evidence linking climate change and the risk of civil conflict. It concludes by urging accelerated support by African governments and foreign aid donors for new and/or expanded policies to assist with African adaptation to climate change.
"Despite recent high-level statements suggesting that climate change could worsen the risk of civil conflict, until now we had little quantitative evidence linking the two," said Marshall Burke, the study's lead author, a graduate student at UC Berkeley's Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, and research associate at the Program on Food Security and the Environment. "Unfortunately, our study finds that climate change could increase the risk of African civil war by over 50 percent in 2030 relative to 1990, with huge potential costs to human livelihoods."
"We were definitely surprised that the linkages between temperature and recent conflict were so strong," said Edward Miguel, professor of economics at UC Berkeley and faculty director of UC Berkeley's Center for Evaluation for Global Action. "But the result makes sense. The large majority of the poor in most African countries depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, and their crops are quite sensitive to small changes in temperature. So when temperatures rise, the livelihoods of many in Africa suffer greatly, and the disadvantaged become more likely to take up arms."
Understanding the causes and consequences of civil strife in much of the African continent has been a major focus of the social sciences for decades, said Miguel, given the monumental suffering has resulted from it.
In the study, the researchers first combined historical data on civil wars in sub-Saharan Africa with rainfall and temperature records across the continent. They found that between 1980 and 2002, civil wars were significantly more likely in warmer-than-average years, with a 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature in a given year raising the incidence of conflict across the continent by nearly 50 percent.
Building on this historical relationship between temperature and conflict, the researchers then used projections of future temperature and precipitation change to quantify future changes in the likelihood of African civil war. Based on climate projections from 20 global climate models, the researchers found that the incidence of African civil war could increase 55 percent by 2030, resulting in an additional 390,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars.
All climate models project rising temperatures in coming decades, said David Lobell, study co-author and an assistant professor of environmental earth system science at Stanford and center fellow at Stanford's Program on Food Security and the Environment, a joint program of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Woods Institute for the Environment.
"On average, the models suggest that temperatures over the African continent will increase by a little over 1 degree Celsius by 2030," he added. "Given the strong historical relationship between temperature rise and conflict, this expected future rise in temperature is enough to cause big increases in the likelihood of conflict."
To confirm that this projection was not the result of large effects in just a few countries or due to overreliance on a particular climate model, the researchers recalculated future conflict projections using alternate data. "No matter what we tried - different historical climate data, different climate model projections, different subsets of the conflict data - we still found the same basic result," said Lobell.
It's easy to think of climate change as a long way off, said the researchers, but their study shows how sensitive many human systems are to small increases in temperature, and how fast the negative impacts of climate change could be felt.
"Our findings provide strong impetus to ramp up investments in African adaptation to climate change, for instance by developing crop varieties less sensitive to extreme heat and promoting insurance plans to help protect farmers from adverse effects of the hotter climate," said Burke.
Applying findings from this study could prove useful to policy makers at the upcoming Copenhagen negotiations in December in determining both the speed and magnitude of response to climate change, the authors said.
"If the sub-Saharan climate continues to warm and little is done to help its countries better adapt to high temperatures, the human costs are likely to be staggering," said Burke.
"We were definitely surprised that the linkages between temperature and recent conflict were so strong," said Edward Miguel, professor of economics at UC Berkeley and faculty director of UC Berkeley's Center for Evaluation for Global Action. "But the result makes sense. The large majority of the poor in most African countries depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, and their crops are quite sensitive to small changes in temperature. So when temperatures rise, the livelihoods of many in Africa suffer greatly, and the disadvantaged become more likely to take up arms."