Security

FSI scholars produce research aimed at creating a safer world and examing the consequences of security policies on institutions and society. They look at longstanding issues including nuclear nonproliferation and the conflicts between countries like North and South Korea. But their research also examines new and emerging areas that transcend traditional borders – the drug war in Mexico and expanding terrorism networks. FSI researchers look at the changing methods of warfare with a focus on biosecurity and nuclear risk. They tackle cybersecurity with an eye toward privacy concerns and explore the implications of new actors like hackers.

Along with the changing face of conflict, terrorism and crime, FSI researchers study food security. They tackle the global problems of hunger, poverty and environmental degradation by generating knowledge and policy-relevant solutions. 

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About the event: Since the mid-2010s, scholars and analysts have declared the emergence of a dangerous ‘new’ or ‘third’ nuclear age. Beyond academia, the concept of the new nuclear age is proving influential with policymakers in a range of countries. The new nuclear age is understood to be characterized by technological change, nuclear multipolarity, eroding constraints on the behavior and competition of nuclear-armed states, and the likely emergence of new nuclear powers. That said, it remains unclear how we should understand the new nuclear age in broader terms: how new is it and does it require new theoretical frameworks to understand? Bell subjects the concept of the new nuclear age to scrutiny. He connects the discussion of the new nuclear age to ongoing but mostly separate debates about nuclear history and the ‘Theory of the Nuclear Revolution’ (TNR). The increasing body of literature challenging TNR reveals a more competitive, complex, and dangerous nuclear past than our prior understandings, but in doing so, it draws attention to continuities between the past and the emerging nuclear age. Bell then examines the empirical features thought to define the new nuclear age and show that many have historical precedent and do not require novel theoretical frameworks to understand. The new nuclear age may, therefore, be somewhat less new, though perhaps no less dangerous, than it appears.

About the speaker: Mark Bell is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Minnesota. His book, Nuclear Reactions: How Nuclear-Armed States Behave, won the ISA Foreign Policy Analysis Section's best book award. Other work has been published in International Organization, International Security, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Strategic Studies, and Texas National Security Review. Policy-oriented work has been published in Foreign Affairs, War on the Rocks, and The Washington Quarterly. He holds a Ph.D from MIT, a Master's in Public Policy from Harvard Kennedy School, and a B.A. from St Anne’s College, Oxford University.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

No filming or recording without express permission from speaker.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Mark Bell
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In late August 2021, United States President Joseph Biden hosted the newly elected Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennet, at the White House for an official meeting. Shortly after, Israeli journalist Barak Ravid reported that Biden and Bennet ‘reaffirmed the strategic understandings’ between the two allies on Israel’s ‘alleged undeclared military nuclear program’, noting that this reaffirmation of policy has been repeated by every US President since Richard Nixon.1 As shall be explored below, this statement is mostly accurate, with the seemingly glaring exception of President George H.W. Bush. Upon its publication, Ravid’s story became the most recent in a long line of reports detailing this repeated commitment by US presidents to their Israeli counterparts.2

What role does this commitment play in Israel’s long history with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)? The primary aim of this article is to answer this question by charting Israel’s relationship with the NPT and its decades-long fear of American coercion to join it. A secondary aim of this article is to provide a concise primer, or introduction, to this nuanced question for scholars and students alike, by reviewing the existing literature and adding insights from new archival sources to this growing body of work.

The paper proceeds in three parts. The first charts the emergence of Israel’s NPT policy and the technical-diplomatic road which led to the emergence of the policy in the late 1960s and the early 1970s. The second charts how this policy impacted Israel’s nuclear energy policy in the following decades, ultimately preventing it from pursuing its plan of launching a massive civilian nuclear infrastructure program, specifically nuclear power plants for electricity production. The third concludes with charting Israel’s NPT policy at the end of the Cold War. Research for this study was conducted in archives in the US, United Kingdom, Canada, and Israel, and taps both primary and secondary sources; Hebrew translations are by the author, unless otherwise noted.3

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Cold War History
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Or (Ori) Rabinowitz
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This memo examines securitization within the public political discussion of both Russia and the United States. We have selected keywords pertaining to the country itself in general and to the country’s intelligence services in order to identify whether the overall sentiment towards the country is similar to the sentiment given to one of the most securitized topics. For the dataset, we selected recent content from the 10 most-cited political bloggers, with the platforms being Substack for the US and Telegram for Russia. Further on, we analyzed some of the relevant post texts qualitatively. Policy recommendations are provided based on the results. 

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Washington’s alliances are under immense strain. Many allies and partners are subject to increased threats from great-power adversaries, and they are coming to doubt whether they can rely on the United States. The response to these pressures is to rearm. Like the United States itself, U.S. partners across Asia, Europe, and elsewhere are building up their defense industrial and technological bases to improve their ability to project power, deter enemies, and prevail in a protracted conflict.

Continue reading at foreignaffairs.com

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America and Its Allies Must Pool Their Efforts

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Foreign Affairs
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This paper asks whether the United States and the European Union, despite divergent economic exposure and institutional design, can sustain a coherent sanctions strategy toward Russia, and how that divergence shapes the regime's effectiveness. It proceeds through a structured comparison across three policy domains — energy, finance, and immobilized sovereign assets — drawing on the literatures on economic statecraft, energy security, and financial-network theory, and on transaction-level, macroeconomic, and legal evidence from 2022 to early 2026. The analysis finds, first, that the United States' position as a net energy exporter enabled rapid embargoes, whereas the EU's import dependence produced a slower, phased decoupling. Second, US financial measures operated extraterritorially through dollar centrality and centralized OFAC enforcement, while the EU relied on regulatory jurisdiction over SWIFT but enforced through fragmented national authorities; a Gazprombank carve-out preserved the energy-export inflows that offset the intended balance-of-payments shock. Third, in the dispute over frozen assets, EU custodial institutions bear the legal and retaliatory exposure that the United States advocates from a position of relative insulation. The findings indicate that the regime's effectiveness is constrained less by the design of individual measures than by uneven enforcement and an asymmetric distribution of risk; absent institutionalized burden-sharing, its durability and credibility are likely to weaken.

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Escalating threats to undersea cable networks, stemming from gray-zone sabotage at vulnerable chokepoints, are receiving long-overdue attention from policymakers and the public. Recent incidents highlight the strategic vulnerability of this infrastructure, due to a lack of redundancy, limited repair capacity, and gaps in international maritime law. Despite attempts at multilateral cooperation through the G7 and the Quad, concrete actions are lagging. The US administration has not directly addressed this issue. To strengthen resilience, democracies must collaborate and invest in hardened cable designs, real-time monitoring and data sharing, routing diversity, regional repair hubs, and enhanced legal frameworks. They must work together to secure their lifeline for economic and national security and future digital-technology advancement.

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Texas National Security Review
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Charles Mok
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Iss 3
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I am currently pursuing a double major in Political Science and Sociology, with a specific focus on rule of law systems and criminology. I am most interested in questions concerning how aspects of identity affect people’s access to justice and the conditions that shape the procedures and outcomes of legal institutions.

Research Assistant, Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program, Summer 2026
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In June 2025, Ukraine’s security services staged an audacious strike inside Russia. They infiltrated the country and hid short-range attack drones in cargo trucks near a slew of Russian air bases as far away as the Amur region on the border with China. Most of these bases were home to Russian strategic heavy bombers—aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons. Using Russia’s mobile phone network, Ukrainian operatives remotely launched the drones, successfully destroying at least ten of the bombers and damaging a total of 41 planes, including some used for nuclear command and control, according to Ukrainian assessments.

Known as Operation Spider’s Web, this assault was a remarkable gambit. The most significant aspect of the attack, however, was not its astonishing cost ratio—as one analyst put it, “a single drone costing just $500 destroyed a strategic bomber worth tens of millions of dollars”—or its ingenuity in hijacking Russian telecommunications, but the fact that it could happen at all. As part of its long-standing doctrine, Moscow had insisted that a conventional attack on its strategic assets could provoke a nuclear response. But that did not stop Kyiv. Ukraine was willing to go after Russia’s nuclear capabilities, and Russia was unable to prevent their destruction.

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Rose Gottemoeller
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Iran’s nuclear program remains a profound strategic challenge for both the United States and Israel, despite the consecutive joint aerial campaigns launched against it in June 2025 and February 2026. While these operations significantly degraded, temporarily, Tehran’s conventional military infrastructure, missile arsenals, and nuclear facilities, they failed to secure a medium to long-term resolution, due to Iran’s demonstrated capacity to rapidly reconstitute them.

In May 2026, the Trump administration attempted to resolve the impasse by negotiating an interim memorandum of understanding (MOU) intended to eventually lead to a permanent agreement with Iran. By early June 2026, the talks had stalled, with both sides reportedly hardening their positions. Iranian officials also conditioned any further progress on Israeli restraint in Lebanon and Gaza, effectively suspending the MOU track and turning Lebanon into the immediate diplomatic spoiler. At this stage, early June 2026, the conflict’s trajectory remains uncertain. Given the fluidity of events, the analysis offered here reflects the information available at the time of writing; a renewed outbreak of war cannot be ruled out, but at the same time, discussion of the MOU outline remains important.

Continue reading at hoover.org.

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Commentary
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The Caravan Notebook
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Or (Ori) Rabinowitz
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Stanford faculty, students, and staff are welcome to join the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) for "Global Implications of the U.S. Midterm Elections," an examination of how the midterm election results are reverberating across the world.

FSI Director Colin Kahl will moderate a panel of leading institute scholars as they analyze the domestic and international impact of the 2026 midterms. The discussion will feature Jim Goldgeier on international perceptions of the election; Didi Kuo on domestic political rivalries; and Nate Persily on the integrity of electoral institutions.

Don't miss this timely conversation on American democracy and its global consequences as we assess what the midterm results mean for U.S. leadership and international order.

Drinks and hors d'oeuvres will be served following the panel discussion. 

Colin H. Kahl
Colin Kahl

Location available following valid registration

Encina Hall, C150
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305

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Center Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
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Didi Kuo is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University. She is a scholar of comparative politics with a focus on democratization, corruption and clientelism, political parties and institutions, and political reform. She is the author of The Great Retreat: How Political Parties Should Behave and Why They Don’t (Oxford University Press) and Clientelism, Capitalism, and Democracy: the rise of programmatic politics in the United States and Britain (Cambridge University Press, 2018).

She has been at Stanford since 2013 as the manager of the Program on American Democracy in Comparative Perspective and is co-director of the Fisher Family Honors Program at CDDRL. She was an Eric and Wendy Schmidt Fellow at New America and is a non-resident fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She received a PhD in political science from Harvard University, an MSc in Economic and Social History from Oxford University, where she studied as a Marshall Scholar, and a BA from Emory University.

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Didi Kuo
Stanford Law School Neukom Building, Room N230 Stanford, CA 94305
650-725-9875
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James B. McClatchy Professor of Law at Stanford Law School
Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute
Professor, by courtesy, Political Science
Professor, by courtesy, Communication
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Nathaniel Persily is the James B. McClatchy Professor of Law at Stanford Law School, with appointments in the departments of Political Science, Communication, and FSI.  Prior to joining Stanford, Professor Persily taught at Columbia and the University of Pennsylvania Law School, and as a visiting professor at Harvard, NYU, Princeton, the University of Amsterdam, and the University of Melbourne. Professor Persily’s scholarship and legal practice focus on American election law or what is sometimes called the “law of democracy,” which addresses issues such as voting rights, political parties, campaign finance, redistricting, and election administration. He has served as a special master or court-appointed expert to craft congressional or legislative districting plans for Georgia, Maryland, Connecticut, New York, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.  He also served as the Senior Research Director for the Presidential Commission on Election Administration. In addition to dozens of articles (many of which have been cited by the Supreme Court) on the legal regulation of political parties, issues surrounding the census and redistricting process, voting rights, and campaign finance reform, Professor Persily is coauthor of the leading election law casebook, The Law of Democracy (Foundation Press, 5th ed., 2016), with Samuel Issacharoff, Pamela Karlan, and Richard Pildes. His current work, for which he has been honored as a Guggenheim Fellow, Andrew Carnegie Fellow, and a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, examines the impact of changing technology on political communication, campaigns, and election administration.  He is codirector of the Stanford Program on Democracy and the Internet, and Social Science One, a project to make available to the world’s research community privacy-protected Facebook data to study the impact of social media on democracy.  He is also a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a commissioner on the Kofi Annan Commission on Elections and Democracy in the Digital Age.  Along with Professor Charles Stewart III, he recently founded HealthyElections.Org (the Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project) which aims to support local election officials in taking the necessary steps during the COVID-19 pandemic to provide safe voting options for the 2020 election. He received a B.A. and M.A. in political science from Yale (1992); a J.D. from Stanford (1998) where he was President of the Stanford Law Review, and a Ph.D. in political science from U.C. Berkeley in 2002.   

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Nate Persily
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Research Affiliate, CDDRL
Research Affiliate, CISAC
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James Goldgeier is a Research Affiliate at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and Professor Emeritus at the School of International Service at American University, where he served as Dean from 2011-17. From 2019-2025, he was a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution. In 2018-19, he held the Library of Congress Chair in U.S.-Russia Relations at the John W. Kluge Center and was a visiting senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Prior to joining American University, he was a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, where from 2001-05 he directed the Elliott School’s Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies. He also taught at Cornell University, and has held a number of public policy appointments and fellowships, including Director for Russian, Ukrainian, and Eurasian Affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Henry A. Kissinger Chair at the Library of Congress, and Edward Teller National Fellow at the Hoover Institution.

Dr. Goldgeier has authored or edited six books, most recently Evaluating NATO Enlargement: From Cold War Victory to the Russia-Ukraine War (2023), co-edited with Joshua Shifrinson. He is the recipient of the Edgar S. Furniss book award in national and international security and co-recipient of the Georgetown University Lepgold Book Prize in international relations. Dr. Goldgeier is a senior adviser to the Bridging the Gap initiative, which promotes scholarly contributions to public debate and decision making on global challenges and U.S. foreign policy, and is co-editor of the Oxford University Press Bridging the Gap Book Series.

Dr. Goldgeier is past president of the Association of Professional Schools of International Affairs (2015-2017). He received his M.A. and PhD in Political Science from the University of California Berkeley and his A.B., magna cum laude in Government, from Harvard University.

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Jim Goldgeier
Panel Discussions
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