FSI scholars produce research aimed at creating a safer world and examing the consequences of security policies on institutions and society. They look at longstanding issues including nuclear nonproliferation and the conflicts between countries like North and South Korea. But their research also examines new and emerging areas that transcend traditional borders – the drug war in Mexico and expanding terrorism networks. FSI researchers look at the changing methods of warfare with a focus on biosecurity and nuclear risk. They tackle cybersecurity with an eye toward privacy concerns and explore the implications of new actors like hackers.
Along with the changing face of conflict, terrorism and crime, FSI researchers study food security. They tackle the global problems of hunger, poverty and environmental degradation by generating knowledge and policy-relevant solutions.
Making the Afghan Civil-Military Imbalance Conducive to Democratization
In-conflict state building generates unbalanced civil-military relations in the host state due to an inevitable civil-military gap. Building civilian institutions cannot match the trajectory of progress in building military institutions. The civil-military imbalance creates structural risks to the democratization of the state. This article explains the civil-military gap and its risks, examines Iraq and in particular Afghanistan, and presents steps on how to make unbalanced civil-military relations conducive to democratization by shaping the political role of the military.
The Ninth Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum
In the ninth session of the Strategic Forum, former senior American and South Korean government officials and leading experts focused on leadership changes on and around the Korean Peninsula and the possible implications for North Korea policy, the U.S.-South Korea alliance, and Northeast Asia. They analyzed North Korean behavior under its new leader Kim Jong-un and the likelihood his regime would continue nuclear and missile development. Participants also compared and contrasted the North Korea and alliance policies of South Korea’s leading candidates in the December 19 presidential election. The session was hosted by the Sejong Institute, a top South Korean think tank, in Seoul, in association with the Korean Studies Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.
PARTICIPANTS
Republic of Korea:
Chul Hyun Kwon, Chairman of the Board, The Sejong Foundation
Dae Sung Song, President, The Sejong Institute
Sang Woo Rhee, President, New Asia Research Institite
Jae Chang Kim, Co-Chairman, Council on US-Korea Security Studies
Myung Hwan Yu, Former Minister, Foreign Affairs & Trade Ministry
Yong Ok Park, Governor, PyungAn Nam-do Province (North Korea territory)
Se Hee Yoo, Chairman, Daily NK; Hanyang University
Ho Sup Kim, Professor, Chung-ang University; Chairman, KPSA (2012)
Young Sun Ha, Chairman, East Asia Institute
Jung Hoon Lee, Professor, Yonsei University
Seong Whun Cheon, Chief, North Korea Studies Center, KINU
Chol Ho Chong, Research Fellow, The Sejong Institute
United States:
Gi-Wook Shin, Director, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University
Michael Armacost, Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC
Bruce Bennett, Senior Research Fellow, RAND Cooperation
Karl Eikenberry, Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC
Thomas Fingar, Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC
David Kang, Director, Korean Studies Institute, University of Southern California
T.J. Pempel, Professor, Political Science Dept., University of California, Berkeley
Daniel C. Sneider, Associate Director for Research, Shorenstein APARC
David Straub, Associate Director, Korean Studies Program, Shorenstein APARC
Joyce Lee, Research Associate, Korean Studies Program, Shorenstein APARC
Seoul, Korea
Institutions and supply chains help shape Brazil’s soybean boom
Soybean production has become a significant force for economic development in Brazil, but has come at the cost of expansion into non-protected forests in the Amazon and native savanna in the Cerrado. Over the past fifty years, production has increased from 26 million to 260 million tons. Area planted to soybeans has increased from roughly 1 million hectares in 1970 to more than 23 million hectares in 2010, second only to the United States.
A new study out of Stanford University examines the role of institutions and supply chain conditions in Brazil’s booming soybean industry and the relationship between soy yields and planted area. With the demand for soybeans projected to increase far into the future a better understanding of the economic and institutional factors influencing production can help policymakers better manage land use change.
Using county level data the researchers found that soy area and yields are higher in areas with high cooperative membership and credit levels, and where cheap credit sources are more accessible. Cooperatives help producers secure lower prices for inputs or higher prices for outputs through group purchases and sales. They also enable producers to store their grain past the harvesting period and sell it when prices are higher.
“This suggests that soybean production and profitability will increase as supply chain infrastructure improves in the Cerrado and Amazon,” said lead author Rachael Garrett, a PhD student in Stanford’s Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources.
The authors did not find a significant relationship between land tenure and planted area or land tenure and yields. But found that yields decline and planted area actually increases as transportation costs increase. More importantly, the study showed counties with higher yields have a higher proportion of land planted in soy.
“Policies intending to spare land through technological yield improvements could actually lead to land expansion in the absence of strong land use regulations if demand and per hectare profits are high,” said co-author Rosamond L. Naylor, director of Stanford’s Center on Food Security and the Environment.
The current Forest Code requires rural land users in the Amazon to conserve 80% of their property in a ‘Legal Reserve’, and landowners in the Cerrado to conserve 20%. Historically, illegal clearings have been common and enforcement of the Legal Reserve requirements remains poor.
While this study focuses on Brazil, the results underscore the importance of understanding how supply chains influence land use associated with cash crops in other countries. Future demand for soybeans, as well as for cash crops like Indonesian palm oil, will continue to grow as demand for cooking oil, livestock feed, and biodiesel increase with income growth and changing dietary preferences in emerging economies.
South Korea and Global Nuclear Governance
South Korea has become a major player in the world of nuclear energy and nuclear security, having hosted the 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit and inked the largest nuclear power plant export deal in history with the United Arab Emirates. In collaboration with the East Asia Institute of South Korea, CISAC has been involved in an ongoing project to examine South Korea’s role in global nuclear governance and possible ways for South Korea to increase and improve its nuclear energy cooperation with the United States. Dr. Michael May will present his ideas on possible next steps to improve global nuclear governance, with particular focus on South Korea. Dr. Chaim Braun will then review potential bilateral and multilateral nuclear energy cooperation steps that South Korea could pursue in the interest of their national security and domestic energy needs.
About the speakers:
Chaim Braun is a CISAC consulting professor specializing in issues related to nuclear power economics and fuel supply, and nuclear nonproliferation. At CISAC, Braun pioneered the concept of proliferation rings dealing with the implications of the A.Q. Khan nuclear technology smuggling ring, the concept of the Energy Security Initiative (ESI), and the re-evaluation of nuclear fuel supply assurance measures, including nuclear fuel lease and take-back. Before joining CISAC, Braun worked as a member of Bechtel Power Corporation's Nuclear Management Group, and led studies on power plant performance and economics used to support maintenance services. He also managed nuclear marketing in East Asia and Eastern Europe. Prior to that, Braun worked at United Engineers and Constructors (UE&C), EPRI and Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL).
Michael May is Professor Emeritus (Research) in the Stanford University School of Engineering and a senior fellow with the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He is the former co-director of Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation, having served seven years in that capacity through January 2000. May is a director emeritus of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, where he worked from 1952 to 1988, with some brief periods away from the Laboratory. While there, he held a variety of research and development positions, serving as director of the Laboratory from 1965 to 1971. May received the Distinguished Public Service and Distinguished Civilian Service Medals from the Department of Defense, and the Ernest Orlando Lawrence Award from the Atomic Energy Commission, as well as other awards. His current research interests are nuclear weapons policy in the US and in other countries; nuclear terrorism; nuclear and other forms of energy and their impact on the environment, health and safety and security; the use of statistics and mathematical models in the public sphere.
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