FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.
Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.
FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.
Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.
Asia's Polite Reception to Bush Masks Declining U.S. Influence
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As President Bush continues his tour of Asia, Pantech Fellow and San Jose Mercury News columnist Daniel Sneider observes in YaleGlobal that growing regional cooperation threatens U.S. preeminence in East Asia.
On the surface, President Bush's week-long swing through Northeast Asia has been a strong contrast with his recent stormy (and, some say, stumbling) excursion into Latin America.
There was little sign of overt anti-Americanism. And no Asian leader will openly oppose American leadership in the flamboyant manner of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. Even prickly China swallowed President Bush's barbs about lack of democratic freedom in China, quietly acknowledging the two powers' differences. In contrast to the meeting of leaders from the Americas, the annual summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Korea will embrace the principles of free trade.
Beneath the polite appearance, however, there is no less a challenge to American leadership in Asia. While Washington fiddled, a powerful momentum has been building up in Asia toward the formation of an East Asian Free Trade Area or, more ambitiously, an East Asian Community, modeled on the European community. Led by China, the East Asian grouping pointedly excludes the United States.
The APEC agenda focuses on an initiative to counter the spread of avian flu and to offer a common push at the WTO meeting in Hong Kong next month to revive the Doha Round of global trade talks. The Bush administration has its own agenda for the APEC meeting: to reposition itself as a leader of economic growth and integration in the region. For this, APEC has the virtue of being a more open organization than those behind the disappointment at the American summit. Its 21 members span the Pacific Rim, bringing together nations from Chile and Mexico to Russia, China and Southeast Asia. But this attention to APEC may be a case of too little, too late. The momentum to give the amorphous APEC an ongoing institutional role, beyond its annual summit meetings, has slowed in recent years. Its pledges for mutual tariff reduction exist almost entirely on paper.
Until this year, the Bush administration barely addressed regional economic issues at APEC. It preferred to use the meetings to promote a post-9/11 security agenda of anti-terrorism. U.S. trade policy has focused more on reaching free trade agreements with a few selected "friends" in that war, such as Singapore and Australia.
Meanwhile a Chinese-sponsored move to hold an East Asian summit offers the most visible expression of a trend of declining American influence in Asia. That meeting will take place in Malaysia in mid-December. The gathering groups the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. Pointedly not invited is the United States.
This meeting is an outgrowth of the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) process - an annual dialogue of ASEAN with China, South Korea and Japan that began in December 1997 in the midst of the Asian financial crisis. The APT has grown into an elaborate mechanism for cooperation in a range of areas from finance and agriculture to information technology. This reflects an underlying economic reality - the growth of regional and bilateral trade agreements and the rapid rise of intra-Asian trade.
Until fairly recently, foreign trade in East Asia was dominated by trans-Pacific trade with the United States. But the share of Asian exports headed to the U.S. has dropped dramatically, while those destined for other Asian nations has risen. In the two decades from 1981 to 2001, according to economist Edward Lincoln, the share of intra-regional exports has risen from 32 percent to 40 percent, and intra-regional imports from 32 percent to 50 percent.
Much of the growth of regional integration is being driven by China, which is generating enormous demand for imports of raw materials as well as for semi-finished goods that are assembled for export. China has not been hesitant to use this role to expand its influence in the region. It has embraced the APT as a road towards creation of an East Asian community. At the ASEAN summit last year, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao declared that such a community was a "long-term strategic choice in the interests of China's development." China has also outmatched the U.S. in negotiating free trade agreements, both bilateral and regional. The most impressive is an FTA deal between China and ASEAN set to take effect in 2010. Beijing even dreams of an Asian currency, based on the Chinese yuan, to rival the dollar and the euro.
China is not the first nation to try for such East Asian economic unity. Back in the days when Japan was riding high as an economic superpower, it too talked of leading an East Asian bloc, based on a yen currency zone. As late as 1997, in response to the Asian financial crisis, Japan proposed the creation of an Asian Monetary Fund, a kind of alternate regional financial system. More recently, both South Korea and Japan offered their own visions of an East Asian community in 2001. And both countries tried to match China in the APT by offering to form free trade agreements with ASEAN.
Japan, however, was never as successful as China is likely to be. "It would seem that Japan is a natural counterweight to China, but Tokyo is generally perceived as reactive and incapable of outflanking Beijing," Brad Glosserman, director of research at the Pacific Forum of CSIS, wrote recently. "Its economic dynamism is no match for that of China."
The United States has never been friendly toward efforts to create an East Asian economic bloc, viewing them as chipping away at the global trading system and rivaling American leadership. But Asia is arguably only following in American footsteps -- witness the NAFTA deal with Canada and Mexico and the more recent trade pact with Central America.
Many American policymakers believe these developments are partly a product of the failure of the Bush administration to articulate - much less pursue - a strategy to engage East Asia.
"The United States has greater strategic interests in Asia now than it did in Europe before World War I or World War II,'' argued a recent report of the Grand Strategic Choices Working Group, co-chaired by John Hopkin's University's Francis Fukuyama and Princeton's G. John Ikenberry. "Thus," the report continued, "it is unfortunate that part of the problem, in East Asia in particular, is that America's relative lack of interest in tending to the region has caused some allies of the U.S. to doubt our resolve and question the value of resisting unfavorable developments alone."
The report echoes other policymakers in suggesting the U.S. form its own East Asian economic zone with Japan, South Korea and Australia."That's a non-starter,'' says Professor Vinod Aggarwal, director of Berkeley's APEC study center. "Nobody wants to be cut out of the China market."
Privately, Bush administration officials downplay the importance of the East Asian summit in December, pointing to the lack of any concrete agenda. The addition of India, Australia and New Zealand to the invitation list, along with Japan, should effectively counter any Chinese initiative, they believe.
But those countries also fear being left out of whatever may emerge from this process. They cannot afford to be left on the outside, looking in.
Ultimately, neither can the United States. The President's trip is a belated recognition of that fact. But to be more than a momentary gesture, the United States must give East Asia the consistent attention it deserves.
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Open Source Software and the Globalization of Services: A Panel Discussion
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Open source software (OSS) is widely used as operating systems (Linux), web tools (Apache, JBoss), database platforms (MySQL) and a range of applications. Creating OSS is widely believed to be a relatively easy process compared with proprietary software. Its growing use and support from large firms such as IBM and HP have led many to believe that OSS will ultimately replace proprietary software. While this is hotly debated, there is little doubt that as its use increases, it will impact how software services will be delivered. In particular, low cost global delivery centers might benefit from ready access to OSS code. The panel will discuss these and other issues related to the globalization of software services caused by OSS.
Panelists:
Mike Balma is HP's Linux Business Strategist. Mike has helped drive HP's strategy for Linux and Open Source software across HP since 1999. Mike is a member of HP's Open Source Review Board that reviews HP open source projects. He was involved in the Linux port to Itanium. He also helped create an exchange for open source software development. And he helps drive HP's Linux strategy in the public sector including the security related technologies and certifications.
Mitchell Kertzman is a partner at Hummer Winblad Venture Partners. He has over 30 years of experience as a CEO of public and private software companies. Most recently, Mitchell was chairman and CEO of Liberate Technologies, a provider of platform software for the delivery of digital services by cable television companies.
Rajesh Setty chairman of CIGNEX Technologies, Inc., a company that he co-founded in late 2000. Setty has managed technology projects and practices over the last 14 years in several parts of the world (India, Singapore, Malayisa, Hong Kong, France and the United States.)
Philippines Conference Room
Mike Balma
Linux Business Strategist
Panelist
Hewlett Packard
Mitchell Kertzman
Partner
Panelist
Hummer Winblad Venture Partners
Rajesh Setty
chairman of CIGNEX Technologies, Inc.
Panelist
Seminars
Katrina: Redefining the Essence of Homeland Security
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Paul Stockton is the associate provost at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, and is director of its Center for Homeland Defense and Security. Stockton is the editor of Homeland Security (forthcoming from Oxford University Press in 2005). His research has appeared in Political Science Quarterly, International Security and Strategic Survey. He is co-editor of Reconstituting America's Defense: America's New National Security Strategy (1992). Stockton has also published an Adelphi Paper and has contributed chapters to a number of books, including James Lindsay and Randall Ripley, eds., U.S. Foreign Policy After the Cold War (1997). Stockton received a BA summa cum laude from Dartmouth College in 1976 and a PhD in government from Harvard University in 1986. He served from 1986-1989 as legislative assistant to U.S. Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan. Stockton was awarded a postdoctoral fellowship for 1989-1990 by CISAC. In August 1990, he joined the faculty of the Naval Postgraduate School. From 1995 until 2000, he served as director of the NPS Center for Civil-Military Relations. From 2000-2001, he founded and served as the acting dean of the NPS School of International Graduate Studies. He was appointed associate provost in 2001.
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Paul Stockton
Associate Provost, Director, Center for Homeland Security
Speaker
Naval Postgraduate School
Seminars
The Thaksinization of Thailand: Ironies of Constitutional Reform
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In Thailand in 1997 reformers drafted a new constitution. They hoped to trigger dramatic improvements in the country's political system. Analysts, activists, and politicians alike blamed many of Thailand's problems on shortcomings of a party system seen as dangerously weak and fragmented. Accordingly, the new charter was designed to strengthen political parties while reducing their number. These constitutional changes profoundly affected Thai politics, but not always in the ways or for the reasons that reformers had in mind. Have the changes improved or worsened the quality of democracy in Thailand? In addressing this question, Professor Hicken will highlight the unintended consequences of constitutional reform and the nature of governance under Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his Thai Rak Thai Party.
Allen Hicken studies political institutions and policy making in developing countries, especially in Southeast Asia. Countries he has worked in include Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore, and Cambodia. Writing-in-progress includes a book manuscript, "Building Party Systems: Elections, Parties, and Coordination in Developing Democracies." He has published in the American Journal of Political Science and Electorial Studies, among other places. At Michigan he is affiliated with the university's Center for Southeast Asian Studies and Center for Political Studies. He earned his Ph.D in political science and Pacific studies from the University of California - San Diego.
Daniel I. Okimoto Conference Room
Allen Hicken
Assistant Professor of Political Science
Speaker
University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
Seminars
The Influence of the Investigation of Illegal 2002 Presidential Election Funds on the Politics and Economy of Korea
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From August 2003 to May 2004, the Korean Supreme Prosecutors' Office, under the leadership of Ahn Dai-Hee, then-chief of its Central Investigation Department, conducted a major investigation of the use of illegal funds in the 2002 presidential election.
This criminal investigation, Korea's largest, targeted illegal activities of leaders of the major political parties and major Korean conglomerates, which had funneled illegal funds to the political parties.
The independent and strictly evidence-based investigation resulted in the arrests and indictments of numerous political and business leaders, and revealed serious corruption in Korean politics and business (also referred to as "government-business collusion").
Mr Ahn's talk will include personal reflections on the investigation and discussion of its impact on political reforms in Korea, including how the investigation helped to significantly reduce corruption in Korea.
Ahn Dai- Hee is Chief Prosecutor of the Seoul High Prosecutors' office. He began his legal career as Army Judge Advocate after passing the national bar examination in 1975 and while still a student at Seoul National University. A prosecutor throughout his career, Mr Ahn's straightforward leadership of the Korean Supreme Prosecutors' Office's investigation into illegal funds in the 2002 presidential election earned him national recognition. Mr Ahn's publications include Criminal Tax Law published by Bobmunsa in 2003.
Philippines Conference Room
Ahn Dai-Hee
Chief Prosecutor
Speaker
Seoul Supreme Prosecutors' office
Seminars
Taming American Power: The Global Response to U.S. Primacy
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In his provocative new book, "Taming American Power: The Global Response to US Primacy", renowned scholar Stephen Walt analyzes the different strategies used by other countries to counter U.S. power. Walt cites that many countries are becoming increasingly worried about U.S. dominance and are beginning to turn their concerns into actions. These responses threaten our country's ability to achieve foreign policy goals and may eventually undermine our foremost position. To prevent this, Walt argues that the U.S. must adopt a foreign policy that other countries welcome, rather than one that reinforces the fear of U.S. power.
Co-Sponsored with the Commonwhealth Club of Silicon Valley
Bechtel Conference Center
Stephen Walt
Academic Dean, Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs
Speaker
Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government
Lectures
The Development and Future of China's Semiconductor Industry
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China's integrated circuit market is the fastest growing in the world, increasing from 7 percent of the world in 2000 to 20 percent in 2004. China's State Council has set the ambitious goal of having domestic production satisfy most of this demand, while closing the technology gap with developed countries.
Mr. Yu, President of the China Semiconductor Industry Association and former chief engineer of the Ministry of Electronics, is uniquely positioned to review the past decade's transition of the Chinese semiconductor industry from state controlled enterprises to growing companies responding to market forces. Mr. Yu will also provide his insights on the future of China's high tech development and its ramifications for trade relations with the U.S.
Mr. Yu Zhongyu has been engaged in semiconductor research and management for many years and is one of the leaders of China's integrated circuit (IC) industry. He has engaged in research and design of IC products and was honored with the National Science and Technology Award. Having joined the government in 1988, he was responsible for organizing and leading the IC project during "7th five-year plan" and "8th five-year plan"; he acted as a member of the leading group for the National "908" project and headed the construction leading group of the Huahong factory in the "909" project. These projects made important contributions to China's IC industry development. Mr. Yu has been the President of the China Semiconductor Industry Association since 2001.
Philippines Conference Room
Yu Zhongyu
Speaker
President of the China Semiconductor Industry Association (CSIA)
Seminars
Secret Practices of the War on Terror
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Barbara Olshansky is Director Counsel of the Global Justice Initiative and Deputy Legal Director of the Center for Constitutional Rights. Barbara's current docket at the Center for Constitutional Rights includes class action lawsuits concerning international human rights; immigrants' rights; race discrimination in employment, education, the environment, and public health; and prisoners' rights. Barbara recently co-authored two books: the most recent, entitled America's Disappeared, discusses the plight of America's "war on terror" detainees; and the second, entitled Against War With Iraq, analyzes the international law ramifications of the U.S. decision to pursue a military campaign in Iraq.
Barbara has also written two other books: Democracy Detained, discussing America's secret practices used in the "war on terror," and Secret Trials and Executions, assessing the military commissions scheduled for Guantánamo detainees. Stanford Law School recently named her 2005 Public Interest Lawyer of the Year.
Stanford Law School, Room 190
Barbara Olshansky
Director Counsel of the Global Justice Initiative and Deputy Legal Director of the Center for Constitutional Rights.
Speaker
Lectures