About the Event: Debates on cohesion in the world’s most powerful alliance have largely overlooked NATO’s complex constellation of internal politics - instead overly focusing on US influence. While the US undoubtedly retains it outsized role in NATO, security scholarship offers few clues as to how or why Russia’s full-scale 2022 invasion of Ukraine has affected NATO cohesion. Policymakers and pundits were quick to predict a long-lasting “NATO revival”, however, the aftermath has been a mixed bag: achievements (e.g. Swedish accession, augmented force posture) and setbacks (e.g. EU-NATO coordination on Ukraine, Russia-PRC responses, etc.). In this study, I argue that observed variation in NATO cohesion can best be explained by policymakers’ repeated use of internal, sticky narratives about other Allies’, which limit the number of issue areas on which formal agreements can occur. Even when Allies’ interests align, such pre-determined labeling of some Allies as spoilers and others as champions on specific issues constrains Allies’ outreach to one another. To test this narrative-focused argument, I conduct a discourse analysis of high-level, formally-agreed NATO documents (e.g. Strategic Concept, Communiqués and other NATO Summit “deliverables”), which are the products of months of intense negotiations, and leaders’ public statements immediately preceding and following the invasion. I also draw on interview evidence from several officials who were part of negotiations during this period. The study advances security scholarship by offering a new argument for why NATO cohesion has changed in the ways that it has, offers an explanation for observed disunity and updates negotiations literatures to stress the power of outgoing knowledge on coalition politics. The study’s empirical evidence also reveals that policymakers’ national narratives can both increase or decrease cohesion, depending on these narratives – even when the narratives themselves mischaracterize Allies’ actual bargaining space. The research advances existing security studies that find that individuals – and not just states – can play critical roles in alliance decision-making.

About the Speaker: Prof. Heidi Hardt is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Irvine. As a 2021-2022 Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs TIRS fellow, she served the State Department (NATO Desk), a senator and congresswoman. She has authored articles, chapters and two books: NATO’s Lessons in Crisis: Institutional Memory in International Organization (Oxford, 2018) and Time to React: The Efficiency of International Organizations in Crisis Response (Oxford, 2014). Hardt examines transatlantic and European security, NATO, multilateral military operations, climate security, organizational change, learning, gender and elite decision-making. The NSF, Fulbright, NATO and Carnegie have funded her research.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

About the Event: When and why do terrorist groups attack outside their local conflict ecosystems? In the last decade, the number of terrorist groups carrying out violence across international borders has increased. Many explanations of transnational terrorism focus on state-level factors that make some countries more attractive bases or targets for transnational attacks than others. However, state-centric explanations fail to consider the organizational characteristics of the groups carrying out this violence. Transnational terrorism demands significant resources, strength, and coordination as well as intent. At what point in a group’s campaign is it motivated and capable of carrying out attacks abroad? Why are some groups more likely to transition to transnational violence? In this paper, we study the conditions under which terrorist groups move from conducting attacks in their home country to carrying out violence across state borders. We employ data from the Mapping Militants Project to analyze which organizational traits are associated with this choice. Our findings emphasize the importance of group-level attributes in understanding broader patterns of terrorism and consider the implications for counterterrorism policies.

About the Speakers: 

Martha Crenshaw is a senior fellow emerita at the FSI Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) and a professor of political science by courtesy, emerita, at Stanford University. She taught in the Department of Government at Wesleyan University from 1974 to 2007. She has published extensively on the subject of terrorism. In 2011, Routledge published Explaining Terrorism, a collection of her previously published work. A book co-authored with Gary LaFree titled Countering Terrorism was published by the Brookings Institution Press in 2017. She is the founder and a Principal Investigator on the Mapping Militants Project, which traces the evolution of violent militant or extremist organizations across several different conflict theatres.

Kaitlyn Robinson is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Rice University. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science from Stanford University in 2022, and she was an America in the World Consortium Postdoctoral Fellow at Duke University from 2022-2023. Her research seeks to explain how violent non-state actors organize, build relationships with foreign states, and carry out violence in armed conflict. In this work, she draws on original datasets, fieldwork interviews, and archival materials. She is a Principal Investigator on the Mapping Militants Project, which traces the evolution of violent militant or extremist organizations across several different conflict theatres.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

About the Event: The Missiles on Our Land investigates the human and environmental risks associated with the U.S. Air Force plans to replace its current fleet of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and maintain it well into the 2080s. It is the result of a two-year collaboration led by the Princeton University’s Program on Science & Global Security together with Nuclear Princeton, a group of Japanese and Native American researchers, and Columbia University’s School of Journalism, and published in partnership with Scientific American. This project combines state-of-the-art simulations of the consequences of nuclear war with ethnography and journalism, including narrative storytelling, podcasting, photography and cinematography to shed light on the consequences of the most significant nuclear weapon build-up since the end of the Cold War. This project aims to provide information that everyone in the United States and especially the communities living closest to the missile fields need to know so that they can understand and be part of the discussion as to the full extent of the risks associated with deploying new missiles for the next 60 years or more.

About the Speaker: Sébastien Philippe is a Research Scholar with Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security, part of the School of Public and International Affairs where he holds a continuous appointment. His research includes nuclear non-proliferation, arms control, disarmament, and justice issues. He is the co-author of Toxique (French University Press, 2021), an investigation into the radiological and environmental impact of French nuclear tests in the Pacific, which was a Finalist for the 2021 Albert Londres Prize (the French equivalent of the Pulitzer) and won a 2022 Sigma Award for best data journalism in the world, among other accolades. Philippe received his PhD in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering from Princeton, was a Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, and has served as a nuclear weapon system safety engineer in France's Ministry of Armed Forces.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

About the Event: The future of technology is unknown. In some cases, however, the military accepts exceptional expectations about future technology. What technology hype is accepted? And why does the military accept some exceptional expectations but dismiss similar hype about other kinds of emerging technology? Paradoxically, despite discourse about “revolution” and “disruption,” I argue that the hype audiences accept depends on their established identities and interests. They choose to embrace technology hype so long as the imagined change is familiar. Unfamiliar change is rejected. To test my argument, I posit that the U.S. military’s established identities and interests favor offense over defense, and kinetic over non-kinetic capabilities. I then compare the military’s response to discourse about the Cyber Revolution versus the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). The latter was familiar; the former was not. I find that the armed services were more willing to act on hype about the RMA. The military’s conservative bias is well documented in scholarship about bureaucratic politics and technological innovation. What makes the contrast between the RMA and Cyber Revolution so remarkable is how persistent that bias can be—even when the military thinks about revolutionary change and the future of war.

About the Speaker: Frank L. Smith III is a Professor and Director of the Cyber & Innovation Policy Institute at the U.S. Naval War College. His interdisciplinary research and teaching examine how ideas about technology—especially bad ideas—influence national security and international relations. His current research examines international cooperation on military science, cyber wargames, and the impact of technology hype. Previous scholarship includes his book, American Biodefense, as well as articles published in Security Studies, Social Studies of Science, Security Dialogue, Health Security, Asian Security, and The Lancet. His policy work includes helping draft the 2023 National Defense Science and Technology Strategy. He has a PhD in political science and a BS in biological chemistry, both from the University of Chicago. 

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

Co-sponsors:
Southeast Asia Program, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) and the
Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL)
in the
Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI)
Stanford University

Discussants:
Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow of Global Democracy, FSI
Scot Marciel, Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow, APARC 

Chair: Donald K. Emmerson, Director, Southeast Asia Program, APARC

Optimism marked the New Year’s Day statement released on 1 January 2024 by Myanmar’s opposition-in-exile — the National Unity Government (NUG) and the advisory National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC). The “daily expansion” of territory controlled by inter-ethnic “revolutionary forces” and the “steady shrinking of military-controlled areas” were attributed to the “key success” of the Burmese people’s “defensive war.” Reportedly, as of December 2023, the junta’s forces may have ceded more than 180 outposts and strongpoints in the country to trans-ethnic rebel militias bent on overthrowing the regime. Meanwhile, NUG is working internationally to gain recognition and support while trying to persuade the junta’s foreign backers to desist. Leading those and related efforts is NUG’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Daw Zin Mar Aung. In this webinar, she will address the challenges met, the progress achieved, and the chances of undercutting and overthrowing Myanmar’s brutal dictatorship for the benefit of the country’s long-suffering people.

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Daw Zin Mar Aung, in addition to her service as NUG’s foreign minister, is a member of the committee that represents Myanmar’s elected parliament as it was before its dispersal by the military junta that seized power on 1 February 2021. In democratic contests prior to the termination of democracy, she was twice elected to parliament. Honors she has received include nomination by the World Economic Forum as a World Global Leader (2014) and selection as a CDDRL Draper Hills Summer Fellow at Stanford (2013). She received an International Women of Courage Award from the US State Department in 2012 after having spent eleven years in Burmese prisons for her activism on behalf of democracy and human rights. She is also a co-founder of the Yangon School of Political Science.

Please note that this event is now webinar only

In this seminar, three presenters from Google Health will share their perspectives on what it takes to bring a medical AI product from “code to clinic” in Southeast Asia. Google Health’s mission is to help everyone, everywhere be healthier, applying cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to improve patient outcomes and care delivery and incubate new AI-based products from initial research to clinical deployment. Representing different facets of a multidisciplinary team of experts (Product, Partnerships, and Program Management), the presenters will discuss the journey of developing and deploying a diagnostic AI solution that addresses an unmet need for the detection of diabetic blindness in Southeast Asia, real-world challenges and opportunities (particularly in the context of low- and middle-income countries), and the importance of building strategic partnerships and trust.

Richa Tiwari's work focuses on driving research on Google’s health innovations and working with partners on real-world deployment of digital and AI solutions in APAC and Africa. Richa holds a PhD in Molecular Biology and has over a decade of experience in Pharma, bringing cancer treatments to market and running clinical trials. An accidental technologist and a scientist at heart, Richa is passionate about bringing forward cutting-edge health tech innovations to address healthcare challenges

Sunny Virmani, during his time at Google and Verily Life Sciences, has focused on translating machine learning research into real-world clinical applications working with key opinion leaders and partners globally. His team’s pioneering research in the field of diabetic retinopathy screening using machine learning has helped advance the technology in this field significantly. Previously, he has held Product Management positions at Carl Zeiss Meditec and Philips Healthcare building products in the field of medical imaging. By education, he is an engineer with a Masters degree in Biomedical Engineering.

Rajroshan Sawhney leads Partnerships for Google Research (Health AI & Sustainability). During his time at Google, Raj has focused on catalyzing the adoption of human-centered AI in healthcare by driving strategic partnerships across both public and private sector in APAC, working closely with regulators, policy makers and academic partners to improve health outcomes in low-resource environments, and to develop go-to-market strategies to graduate research into real-world deployments.  Prior to Google, Raj was the Head of Strategic Partnerships and Corporate Development at a leading Computer Vision startup based out of San Francisco and Singapore. Raj holds a Computer Science BE (Hons) degree from BITS-Pilani, is a member of Mensa International and the India Young Leaders Forum.

About the Event: In the last few years, a number of analysts have warned that we may be on the brink of a more proliferated world, as the security environment deteriorates, concerns about U.S. reliability as a protector are on the rise, hostility between the great powers grows, and the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) seems to be under increasing stress. These fears were supercharged by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which appeared to demonstrate that nuclear weapons can facilitate conquest and that giving them up—as Ukraine did in the early 1990s—exposes states to terrible predation. How worried should we be about the nuclear club expanding in the coming decade? Drawing on lessons from nuclear history, I argue that while proliferation risks are growing, they are significantly more manageable than many analysts suggest. And while the odds of proliferation are increasing in both East Asia and the Middle East, we should be significantly more concerned about the latter.

About the Speaker: Nicholas L. Miller is an Associate Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. Miller’s research focuses primarily on the causes and consequences of nuclear weapons proliferation. His book, Stopping the Bomb: The Sources and Effectiveness of U.S. Nonproliferation Policy, was published by Cornell University Press in 2018. His work has also been published in a wide variety of scholarly journals, including the American Political Science Review, International Organization, and International Security, as well popular outlets like Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and War on the Rocks. He earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from MIT.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

About the Event: Nuclear deterrence assumes that state leaders are able to assess the costs, benefits, and consequences of any decision to use nuclear weapons.  Similarly, U.S. nuclear policy presupposes that, in a crisis, the president will rationally assess how to respond to the threat of an incoming nuclear attack.  Using a virtual reality simulation, we conducted an experiment and two controlled observations of decision making in a nuclear crisis.  The results call into question the degree to which any U.S. president is likely to conform to the basic expectations of rational decision making when confronted with an incoming nuclear strike.

About the Speaker: Sharon K. Weiner is an Associate Professor in the School of International Service at American University as well as a Visiting Researcher for the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University. Sharon's research, teaching, and policy engagement are at the intersection of organizational politics and U.S. national security. Her current work focuses on the theory, practice, and social construction of deterrence, the politics of U.S. nuclear weapon modernization programs, and larger issues of civil-military relations. Her most recent book, Managing the Military: The Joint Chiefs of Staff and Civil-Military Relations (Columbia University Press, 2022) analyzes the power of the JCS chairman to help or hinder the president's ability to implement their defense policy preferences.  She also collaborates with Moritz Kutt (Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg) on The Nuclear Biscuit (thenuclearbiscuit.org), a virtual reality experience involving a nuclear crisis. The project analyses how people make high stakes national security decisions under conditions of uncertainty.  She is currently on leave from American University and is a Senior Resident Fellow at the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.