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Opening slide for talk with Jonathan Stray

Join the Tech Impact and Policy Center on April 21st from 12PM–1PM Pacific for a seminar with Jonathan Stray.

Stanford affiliates are invited to join us at 11:40 AM for lunch, prior to the seminar.  The Spring Seminar Series continues through May; see our Spring Seminar Series page for speakers and topics. Sign up for our newsletter for announcements. 

About the Seminar:

There has been much discussion of how AI can help humans cooperate, but much less about what happens when you add AI to humans who disagree -- potentially violently. Social media systems, which are increasingly AI driven, may amplify divisive or escalatory narratives. LLMs may similarly exacerbate conflict, especially if they give different answers to people on different sides. I'll present recent work testing alternative social media algorithms with real users on real platforms in an attempt to reduce polarization around the 2024 election, and using LLMs to produce "politically neutral" answers on maximally controversial topics. These early experiments give us a glimpse into the turbulent future of AI-mediated conflict.
 

About the Speaker:

Jonathan Stray is a Senior Scientist at the Center for Human-compatible AI at UC Berkeley, where he works on the design of AI-driven media with a particular interest in well-being and conflict. Previously, he taught the dual masters degree in computer science and journalism at Columbia University, worked as an editor at the Associated Press, and built document mining software for investigative journalism.
 

McClatchy Hall, S40 Studio
450 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305

For those attending the in-person seminar, please bring your Stanford ID card/mobile ID to enter the building. 

Jonathan Stray Senior Scientist UC Berkeley Center for Human Compatible AI
Seminars

AI Can Make Conflict Worse or Better

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Opening slide for talk with david figlio

Join the Tech Impact and Policy Center on April 14th from 12PM–1PM Pacific for a seminar with David Figlio.

Stanford affiliates are invited to join us at 11:40 AM for lunch, prior to the seminar.  The Spring Seminar Series continues through May; see our Spring Seminar Series page for speakers and topics. Sign up for our newsletter for announcements. 

About the Seminar:

Cellphone bans in schools have become a popular policy in recent years in the United States, yet very little is known about their effects on student outcomes. In this study, we try to fill this gap by examining the causal effects of bans on student test scores, suspensions, and absences using detailed student-level data from Florida and a quasi-experimental research strategy relying upon differences in pre-ban cellphone use by students, as measured by building-level Advan data. Several important findings emerge. First, we show that the enforcement of cellphone bans in schools led to a significant increase in student suspensions in the short-term, especially among Black students, but disciplinary actions began to dissipate after the first year, potentially suggesting a new steady state after an initial adjustment period. Second, we find significant improvements in student test scores in the second year of the ban after that initial adjustment period. Third, the findings suggest that cellphone bans in schools significantly reduce student unexcused absences, an effect that may explain a large fraction of the test score gains. The effects of cellphone bans are more pronounced in middle and high school settings where student smartphone ownership is more common.    

About the Speaker:

David Figlio is the Gordon Fyfe Professor of Economics at the University of Rochester, a Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research on education policy, the economics of the family, the interaction between early health and human development, and the economics publication process has been published over the past five years in leading journals such as the American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economic Studies, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Journal of Human Resources, Journal of Labor Economics, and Economic Journal. He recently served as provost at the University of Rochester and dean of Northwestern University’s School of Education and Social Policy. An elected member of the National Academy of Education, he has served as editor of the Journal of Human Resources and inaugural editor of Education Finance and Policy, and has advised numerous states and countries on education policy.    

McClatchy Hall, S40 Studio
450 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305

For those attending the in-person seminar, please bring your Stanford ID card/mobile ID to enter the building. 

David Figlio Gordon Fyfe Professor of Economics University of Rochester
Seminars

The Impact of Cellphone Bans in Schools on Student Outcomes: Evidence from Florida

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Opening slide for talk with Robie Torney

Join the Tech Impact and Policy Center on April 7th from 12PM–1PM Pacific for a seminar with Robbie Torney.

Stanford affiliates are invited to join us at 11:40 AM for lunch, prior to the seminar.  The Spring Seminar Series continues through May; see our Spring Seminar Series page for speakers and topics. Sign up for our newsletter for announcements. 

About the Seminar:

As AI products rapidly integrate into the lives of kids and teens, from educational tools to companion chatbots, the technology industry faces fundamental questions about how to design and deploy these systems responsibly. Drawing on three years of risk assessments conducted by the nonprofit Common Sense Media across major AI platforms including ChatGPT, Gemini, Meta AI, Grok, and numerous AI companion services, this talk examines what we've learned about the gap between current AI design and kid and teen safety. This presentation will outline our approach for evaluating developmental appropriateness in AI systems. Through concrete examples from platform evaluations, we’ll explore patterns we find in safeguarding young users, including in providing “advice” on a range of topics, mental health topics, and more traditional challenges around age appropriate content. These findings reveal structural challenges in how AI products are currently conceived and deployed for young people, from design assumptions that ignore developmental differences to business models that prioritize engagement over safety. Finally, we’ll discuss implications for AI development, deployment, and policy, including the role of age assurance, emerging regulatory approaches, and what product standards for developmental appropriateness might look like in practice.
 

About the Speaker:

Robbie Torney (BA '09, MA '10) is Head of AI & Digital Assessments at Common Sense Media, where he leads the organization's AI safety research and risk assessment methodology. Under his leadership, Common Sense has developed and conducted systematic risk assessments of major AI platforms including ChatGPT, Gemini, Meta AI, and Grok, as well as emerging categories like AI companion chatbots and AI toys. His work spans research, policy advocacy, and industry engagement. He has testified before Congress and the California Legislature on AI safety for youth and works directly with technology companies to shape industry standards. His research focuses on evaluating AI systems through frameworks that center developmental appropriateness and child safety by design. Prior to joining Common Sense Media, Robbie spent over a decade in education leadership in Oakland, California, bringing practical understanding of how technology affects children and families to questions of AI policy and responsible development.
 

McClatchy Hall, S40 Studio
450 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305

For those attending the in-person seminar, please bring your Stanford ID card/mobile ID to enter the building. 

Robbie Torney Head of AI & Digital Assessments Common Sense Media
Seminars

What Three Years of AI Risk Assessments Teach Us About Safety by Design for Kids and Teens

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About the event: The Women, Peace and Security sector advocates for the inclusion of designated gender experts in peace processes to improve outcomes for women. However, empirical support for their effectiveness remains inconclusive. This talk questions whether gender experts are influential or ineffective advocates for women. While their explicit commitment to gendered issues may benefit women, the overt femininity of the role may disadvantage their capacity in overtly masculine security spaces. Leveraging an original dataset capturing the role of 2299 delegates across 116 comprehensive peace agreements finalized between 1990 and 2021, we find that gender experts increase the likelihood that agreements contain provisions for women. However, interviews and archival analysis suggest that the systemic structure of peace negotiations constrains gender experts’ overall influence. Consequently, we explain how gender experts are simultaneously powerful and powerless. Findings capture gender experts’ limitations, caution against policy that makes gender experts solely responsible for gendered considerations in peace processes, and contribute to understanding gendered power dynamics in negotiations more broadly.

About the speaker: Elizabeth is a CISAC Postdoctoral Fellow and previously held fellowships at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, Harvard Law School’s Program on Negotiation, the US Institute of Peace, Northwestern University’s Buffett Institute for Global Affairs, and Canada’s Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. Her research focuses on Women, Peace and Security, and explores power dynamics in peace negotiations. Her work has been published in the American Political Science Review. Elizabeth holds a Ph.D. from Northwestern University and she previously worked as a Gender Specialist with the UN in Kosovo and as a Gender Consultant for USAID in Ghana.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

No filming or recording without express permission from speaker.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Elizabeth Good
Seminars
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The Drivers and Consequences of the International Mobility of Healthcare Professionals from the Philippines

The Philippines is one of the top exporters of healthcare professionals in the world, and arguably a leader in providing high-quality healthcare professionals to regional and global healthcare systems facing workforce shortages. In the last four decades, about 74,000 healthcare professionals emigrated, of which 84% were professional nurses, and around 13,000 newly-hired nurses were deployed annually as temporary migrant workers whose annual remittances averaged US$308,000 (2018-2021). 

This research aims to examine the consequences and drivers of international mobility of health professionals from the Philippines, particularly the role of climate change, given that the country is ranked third globally in terms of vulnerability to climate change risks. While still in its nascent stage, this research first explores the net effects and policy implications of migration using evidence and frameworks found in recent literature. The exodus of high-skilled workers may result in “brain drain”, shortages, and unequal distribution of skilled health workers across the country; however, “brain gain” is also possible. Human capital may improve when: remittances are used for education; more Filipinos are induced to study nursing; and migrants return with new skills and work experience.

Speaker: Marjorie Pajaron is currently a Visiting Scholar for the spring quarter of 2026 and Associate Professor at the School of Economics, University of the Philippines (UP), Diliman. Prior to her appointment, she was a Postdoctoral Fellow at Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. She also served as a lecturer at the University of Hawai’i at Manoa Department of Economics, where she received her Ph.D., and she was a Visiting Research Fellow at the University of Manchester's Global Development Institute.

Her published research includes topics on health, migration, climate change, and remote sensing. She was the recipient of the UP Centennial Professorial Chair Award and International Publication Award for four years,  and she has also served as an Associate Editor for the Scopus-listed journal SciEnggJ

Karen Eggleston
Karen Eggleston, Director of the Stanford Asia Health Policy Program

Philippines Conference Room
Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central, C330
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Marjorie Pajaron, Visiting Scholar, Spring 2026, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University
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About the event: The Baltic states keep surprising researchers — and that is why they are worth studying. They survived the Global Financial Crisis without devaluing their currencies and recovered quickly, even though many economists expected them to fail. Estonia did better than its neighbors during that crisis, and this could not be explained by economic factors alone — political trust turned out to matter. Now, Lithuania has overtaken Estonia in per capita income, which few predicted, and which remains to be explained. The Baltic puzzles are not just regional curiosities. They point to open questions in political economy and security studies.

Kuokštis’ current research focuses on NATO burden-sharing. The standard story is that allies spend too little on defense because others will cover for them — but whether this actually happens, and how, is less clear than conventional wisdom suggests. He examines allied defense spending patterns using difference-in-differences methods, and separately runs a survey experiment in Lithuania testing whether the visible presence of allied forces changes how citizens view allied commitment and how much they are willing to spend on defense. Lithuania is a crucial case for this question: Germany has committed to stationing a full permanent brigade there, creating a real-world experiment that most NATO countries never experience. Can European power substitute for — or does it complement — American security guarantees? The answer matters a great deal for how alliances actually hold together.

About the speaker: Vytautas Kuokštis is an associate professor at Vilnius University's Institute of International Relations and Political Science (TSPMI), visiting Stanford's CISAC during 2025–26. His research spans international political economy and security, focusing on exchange rate regimes, labor market institutions, NATO burden-sharing, and fintech regulation. At CISAC, he is designing a survey experiment examining how changes in NATO allies' defense commitments shape Lithuanian public preferences on defense spending. He has published in journals including Political Science Research and Methods, European Journal of Political Economy, and JCMS. He previously held research positions at Harvard (Fulbright), Yale, and Hokkaido University.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

No filming or recording without express permission from speaker.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Vytautas Kuokštis
Seminars
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This event is hosted by the Indo-Pacific Policy Lab.

In-person registration is at full capacity and now closed. Online registration is still available.

About the event: In Retrench, Defend, Compete, Charles L. Glaser advances a thought-provoking strategy for securing vital US interests in the face of China's rise.

 

CISAC book talk

Many believe China's ascent will drive it to war with the United States. Yet this is far from inevitable; geography and nuclear weapons should ensure US security. The real danger, Glaser contends, lies in East Asia's territorial disputes, especially over Taiwan. To reduce the risk of war, Glaser makes a bold case for ending US security commitments to Taiwan and carefully calibrating its policies on protecting South China Sea maritime features. The United States should also strengthen its alliances with Japan and South Korea and eliminate unnecessarily provocative nuclear and conventional weapons policies. These measures, Glaser argues, would defuse China's biggest security concerns while preserving America's core strategic interests.

Fusing theoretical insights with policy analysis, Retrench, Defend, Compete lays out a distinctive and compelling approach for managing the world's most consequential geopolitical rivalry—before it's too late.

About the speaker: Charles L. Glaser is a Senior Fellow in the MIT Security Studies Program and Professor Emeritus of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University. He was the Founding Director of the Elliott School's Institute for Security and Conflict Studies.

Glaser studies international relations theory and international security policy. His research focuses on defensive realism and deterrence theory, as well as U.S. security policy regarding China, nuclear weapons, and energy security.

His books include Retrench, Defend, Compete: Securing America’s Future Against a Rising China, Rational Theory of International Politics and Analyzing Strategic Nuclear Policy; and two co-edited volumes—Managing U.S. Nuclear Operations in the 21st Century and Crude Strategy.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

No filming or recording without express permission from speaker.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Charles Glaser
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Kingdom of Crossroads: Jordan’s Politics and the Future of Arab Democracy with Sean Yom

Drawing from the author’s latest book, Jordan: Politics in an Accidental Crucible (Oxford University Press, 2025), this talk explores how the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan incubates the historical struggle for democracy in the Arab world. Here, the authoritarian monarchy has never suffered revolution or regime change. Yet the economy struggles, there is neither water nor oil, and perpetual protests punctuate the streets. An invention of British colonialism, the kingdom’s fragile borders are still buffeted by refugee crises and regional conflict, and its geopolitical fate has become encaged by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Through it all, Jordan’s past and present deliver astonishing narratives of democratic resilience. Opposition forces within society have long battled to transform their autocratic regime—only to be blunted by repression, statecraft, and Western interests. Yet these dreams and demands persist today, making Jordan a surprising fulcrum for the balance of democracy in the Middle East.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Sean Yom is Associate Professor of Political Science at Temple University and Senior Fellow at Democracy in the Arab World Now (DAWN). His research explores the dynamics of authoritarian institutions, economic development, and US foreign policy in the Middle East, with a particular focus on Jordan, Morocco, and the Gulf. His most recent books include Jordan: Politics in an Accidental Crucible (Oxford University Press, 2025) and The Political Science of the Middle East: Theory and Research since the Arab Uprisings (co-edited with Marc Lynch and Jillian Schwedler; Oxford University Press, 2022).; Oxford University Press, 2022). He sits on the editorial board of the International Journal of Middle East Studies and the editorial committee of Middle East Report. He is also a former Stanford CDDRL Postdoctoral Fellow (2009-10). AB, Brown University (2003); PhD, Harvard University (2009).

Hesham Sallam
Hesham Sallam

Virtual to Public. If prompted for a password, use: 123456

Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to William J. Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person.

Sean Yom Associate Professor of Political Science Presenter Temple University
Seminars

Wednesday, March 4, 12:00 - 1:15 pm. Click here to register.

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AHPP 0305

 

Paper 1 : Optimal Payment Levels for Reference-Dependent Physicians

Abstract: Prospective payment policies, which set a fixed payment for a bundle of services regardless of providers’ actual costs, are widely used across sectors. However, when the fixed payment level deviates from providers’ familiar, preexisting revenue, the introduction of such policies may induce behavioral distortions if providers exhibit reference-dependent preferences. This study investigates the optimal payment level under this policy by leveraging the healthcare context. We develop a collective model of medical decision-making and incorporate physicians’ reference-dependent preferences into this collective framework. Our structural estimates reveal that both patients and physicians play active roles in medical decisions, with physicians placing 3.5 times more weight on perceived losses than gains. The fixed payment level, by shaping physicians’ perceptions of gains and losses, crucially affects both treatment and welfare outcomes. Through welfare analysis, we derive the optimal payment level that reduces healthcare expense while maintaining patient health benefits.

Speaker:
Wei Yan is an Assistant Professor at the School of Finance, Renmin University of China. She received her Ph.D. in Economics from the National University of Singapore. Her research in health economics studies the interactions among healthcare providers, patients, and insurers, with a focus on understanding how differing incentive structures and information asymmetries between these key players affect their decisions and generate inefficiencies in healthcare markets.

Paper 2: Fear and Risk Perception: Understanding Physicians' Dynamic Responses to Malpractice Lawsuits

Abstract: Using linked health insurance claims and malpractice lawsuit records from a Chinese city, we study how lawsuits shape physicians’ behavior. After lawsuits, physicians practice more defensively—rejecting high-risk patients, reducing surgeries, and increasing diagnostic tests and traditional Chinese medicine—without improving outcomes. The effects spread to unaffected departments and fade in eight weeks. Evidence suggests psychological rather than financial drivers: similar responses regardless of hospitals’ prior exposure or litigation outcomes; reactions to patient deaths vary with the recency of the lawsuit; and responses intensify after violent incidents against physicians. Overall, lawsuits trigger short-lived, fear-driven defensive medicine.

Speaker: 
Jia Xiang is Assistant Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy at the Kelley School of Business, Indiana University. She received her Ph.D. in Economics from Penn State in 2020. She was a Post-Doctoral Research Fellow at Harvard School of Public Health from 2020 to 2021. Her areas of expertise include Industrial Organization, Health Economics, and Applied Microeconomics. Her work has been published in The Rand Journal of Economics.

 

Zoom

Wei Yan, Assistant Professor, Renmin University of China
Jia Xiang, Assistant Professor, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University.
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The U.S.-Israel military aid framework is defined by a 10-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for fiscal years 2019–2028, providing $38 billion ($3.3B annual Foreign Military Financing + $500M annual missile defense). This aid helps fund Israeli defense imports and joint U.S.-Israel projects like the Iron Dome missile defense system, but also provides the U.S. security establishment with unique access to Israeli defense tech. As we near the end of the current MOU, American and Israeli officials have begun discussions over the future of U.S.-Israel military innovation cooperation and financing. Recent developments suggest that the relationship may undergo substantial changes after 2028. The 2026 National Defense Strategy issued by the Pentagon, for example, describes Israel as a "model ally" — a skilled and fiscally responsible partner, bringing substantial national security benefits to the U.S. At the same time, in a recent interview with The Economist, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, declared he intends to wean Israel off U.S. military aid entirely over the next 10 years. What factors influence U.S.-Israel security cooperation and long-term defense finance planning? How might these relations evolve over the coming decade in a world increasingly defined by war and potential great power conflict? Join former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Daniel Shapiro, for a conversation about these essential questions.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Ambassador Daniel B. Shapiro is a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. From 2022 to 2023, he was the Director of the N7 Initiative.

In his most recent government service, Shapiro was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East from 2024 to 2025, and prior to that was Senior Adviser on Regional Integration in the State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs. He is a former US ambassador to Israel, serving from 2011 to 2017. Prior to his appointment, he worked as senior director for the Middle East and North Africa on the National Security Council at the White House, following his role as senior policy adviser in Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.

From 2001 to 2007, Shapiro worked as legislative director and later as deputy chief of staff for then-U.S. Senator Bill Nelson. From 1999 to 2001, he was director for legislative affairs at the National Security Council, serving as congressional liaison for National Security Adviser Sandy Berger. Shapiro also previously served as a staff member on the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe and the Middle East and as a senior foreign policy adviser to US Senator Dianne Feinstein.

Shapiro has served as an adjunct professor at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, and in 2007, he was named vice president of Timmons & Company. Shapiro was a distinguished visiting fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv from 2017 to 2021. Concurrently, he was a principal at WestExec Advisors.

Virtual Event Only.

Amichai Magen
Amichai Magen
Or Rabinowitz

Virtual Only Event.

Ambassador Daniel Shapiro
Seminars

Thursday, May 21. Click for details and registration.

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