Coal is both the world's fastest growing fossil fuel and a leading contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. While in the West coal use is under pressure, much of the developing world is predicating economic growth on cheap, reliable electricity from coal. As a result, the next few decades are likely to witness a massive build out of coal capacity.

Morse will explore where coal markets are growing, examine what economic and political variables have the greatest impact on coal use and the global coal trade, and discuss possible leverage points for CO2 mitigation. One mitigation option is a technology called carbon capture and storage, or CCS. Should we place big bets on this expensive and largely unproven option? Morse will discuss whether the current state of CCS deployment for coal-fired power falls short of mitigation levels required by many widely publicized targets and proceed to analyze the potential for commercial deployment of CCS technology at scale.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is Asia’s most resilient regional organization.  Its ambitious new charter aims to foster, in a dynamic but disparate region, a triply integrated region comprising a Political and Security Community, an Economic Community, and a Socio-Cultural Community.  The charter’s debut under Thailand’s 2008-09 chairmanship of the Association was badly marred, however, by political strife among Thai factions, clashes on the Thai-Cambodian border, and border-crossing risks of a non-military kind.  How have these developments affected ASEAN’s regional performance and aspirations?  Are its recent troubles transitional or endemic?  Do they imply a need for the Association to reconsider its modus operandi, lest it lose its role as the chief architect of East Asian regionalism?

Dr Thitinan Pongsudhirak is director of the Institute of Security and International Studies and an associate professor of international political economy at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.  He is a prolific author, having written many op eds, articles, chapters, and books on Thailand’s politics, political economy, foreign policy, and media, and on ASEAN and East Asian security and economic cooperation.  He has worked for The Nation newspaper (Bangkok), The Economist Intelligence Unit, and Independent Economic Analysis (London).  His degrees are from the London School of Economics (PhD), Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (MA), and the University of California (BA).  His doctoral study of the 1997 Thai economic crisis won the United Kingdom’s Lord Bryce Prize for Best Dissertation in Comparative and International Politics—currently the only work by an Asian scholar to have been so honored. 

Associate Director Mark Thurber discussed two related threads of PESD research on "State Choices in Hydrocarbon Administration."  The first part of the talk, based on a paper which Mark co-authored with PESD affiliated researchers David Hults and Patrick Heller, focused on how countries design institutions for administering their oil sectors.  It suggested that countries with certain institutional deficits may be better off not separating commercial functions from policy and regulatory ones in oil, even though the separation of functions approach (as pioneered by Norway) is generally considered "best practice" in oil sector administration. 

The second part of Mark's talk described statistical analysis he is performing to quantitatively test the hypothesis advanced by PESD consulting professor Pete Nolan that private oil companies will preferentially operate at "frontiers," for which state-controlled oil companies cannot adequately manage risks for their host governments.  Patterns of company operatorship of exploration wells in the 1970s and 1980s, derived from data from oil and gas research and consultancy company Wood Mackenzie, suggest that this hypothesis indeed was statistically supported for frontier exploration in deep water.

The extent and existence of "defensive medicine" -- excessive medical care to defend a physician against malpractice claims -- is a perennial subject of both policy and academic debate.  For example, malpractice liability and associated defensive medicine are among the most-cited reasons for escalating health-care spending in the United States.

In this colloquium, Dr. Brian Chen will present results from his research investigating the extent of defensive medicine in Taiwan. He studies the impact of a series of court rulings in Taiwan that increased physicians’ liability risks, and a subsequent amendment to the law that reversed the courts’ rulings, on physicians’ test-ordering behavior and propensity to perform Caesarean sections.  He finds that physicians faced with higher malpractice pressure increased laboratory tests as expected, but unexpectedly reduced Caesarean sections.  (The reduction in Caesarean deliveries may be due to the fact that liability risks were more closely aligned with physicians’ standard of care after the court rulings.) After the law was amended to negate the court decisions, physicians reversed their previous behavior by reducing laboratory tests and increasing Caesarean deliveries.

This pattern of behavior is highly suggestive of the existence of defensive medicine among physicians in Taiwan. In other words, by studying physicians' response to legal changes in Taiwan, we find that greater malpractice liability may, under certain circumstances, prompt physicians to perform more services without necessarily improving patient health.

Dr. Brian Chen recently completed his Ph.D. in Business Administration in the Business and Public Policy Group at the Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley. He received a Juris Doctor from Stanford Law School in 1997, and graduated summa cum laude from Harvard College in 1992.

The question of whether President Ma Ying-jeou will be reelected has already become a hot issue in Taiwan, two years in advance of the next presidential election.  In this special seminar, Professor Ying-lung You, a political scientist and one of the most prominent political strategists in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), will analyze the current political and electoral landscape of Taiwan and the possible future trends. Whereas some may argue that the question of Ma’s reelection is a question mark only for those who oppose him, Professor You argues that the reality is rather different. This is particularly so after the ruling KMT party has encountered five consecutive setbacks in the recent elections. In this seminar, Professor You will provide firsthand information about the recent election campaigns in Taiwan. By carefully examining Taiwan’s shifting political landscape, he will give us his prediction about the prospects of both the DPP and the KMT in the 2012 presidential election.

Dr. Ying-lung You received his B.A. and M.A. from National Taiwan University, and his Ph.D. in political science from University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. In 1995-96, he was executive director of Election Strategy and Campaigning for the DPP. In 1999, he directed election strategy and public opinion polls in the campaign headquarters of then former Taipei City major Chen Shui-Bian, who later won the presidential election in March 2000. In 2000-01, he served as vice-chairman of the Research, Development, and Evaluation Commission of the Executive Yuan. In 2002-03, he served as Deputy Secretary General for the DPP and in 2003-05 as Vice President of the Katagalan Institute. From 2005 to 2008, he served as the vice chairman of the Mainland Affairs Commission of the Executive Yuan and concurrently served as vice Chairman and secretary-general of the Strait Exchanges Foundation, through which positions he was mainly responsible for Taiwan’s Cross-Strait policy making under the DPP administration. His research interests are public opinion, voting behavior, democratization, constitutional choices, and cross-strait relations.  He is the author/editor of 4 books and more than 20 scholarly articles.

Hind Arroub is a Visiting Scholar at CDDRL in the calendar year 2010, affiliated with the Program on Good Governance and Political Reform in the Arab World, and an associate researcher at the Laboratory of Sociology "Culture et Societe en Europe", affiliated with the CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) and the University of Strasbourg in France. She has a PhD in Law and Political Science from Mohammed V University of Juridical, Economic and Social Sciences in Rabat. Her work takes an interdisciplinary approach to the study of international law, political and social sciences, human rights and media, and her research interests revolve around Morocco and the Arab World with a focus on: politics and religion, authoritarian regimes and democracy, riots and social movements, media freedom, human rights, and global politics' relationship to the Arab World. She is the author of "Revolutions in the Era of Humiliocracy" (with Mahdi El-Mandjra), "The ‘Makhzan' in Moroccan Political Culture" (2004) and "Approach to the Foundations of Legitimacy of the Moroccan Political System", published in November 2009.

Sean Yom is a Hewlett Postdoctoral Fellow at CDDRL at Stanford University. He finished his Ph.D. at the Department of Government at Harvard University in June 2009, with a dissertation entitled "Iron Fists in Silk Gloves: Building Political Regimes in the Middle East". His primary research explores the origins and durability of authoritarian regimes in this region, focusing on the historical interplay between early social conflicts and Western geopolitical interventions.

Robert D. Hormats is the Under Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Agricultural Affairs.

Formerly, Mr. Hormats was the Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International from 1982 to 2009.

Mr. Hormats served as Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs from 1981 to 1982, as Ambassador and Deputy U.S. Trade Representative from 1979 to 1981, and as Senior Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs at the Department of State from 1977 to 1979. He served as a Senior Staff Member for International Economic Affairs on the National Security Council from 1969 to 1977, where he was Senior Economic Advisor to Dr. Henry Kissinger, General Brent Scowcroft, and Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski. Mr. Hormats was a recipient of the French Legion of Honor in 1982 and Arthur Fleming Award in 1974.

Mr. Hormats has been a visiting lecturer at Princeton University and is a member of the Board of Visitors of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and the Dean's Council of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a board member of the Irvington Institute for Immunological Research, Engelhard Hanovia, Inc., The Economic Club of New York, and Freedom House.

Mr. Hormats' publications include The Price of Liberty: Paying for America's Wars from the Revolution to the War on Terror; Abraham Lincoln and the Global Economy; American Albatross: The Foreign Debt Dilemma; and Reforming the International Monetary System. Mr. Hormats' articles have appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, American Banker, and The Financial Times.

Mr. Hormats earned a B.A. from Tufts University in 1965 with a concentration in economics and political science. In 1966 he earned an M.A. and, in 1970, a Ph.D. in international economics from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.