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Conflicting views of international law versus national interest are churning the South China Sea. In The Hague on 12 July 2016, an Arbitral Tribunal ruled in favor of the Republic of the Philippines and against the People’s Republic of China regarding the latter’s claims and behavior in the South China Sea. Beijing has denounced the decision and refuses to abide by it. The Philippines’ new and outspoken president has refused to press China toward compliance, seemingly preferring to seek economic benefits from China instead. The US and Japan, among other countries, have supported the ruling, but in a muted fashion, as if to avoid antagonizing China. 

Did the Arbitral Court do the right or the wrong thing? Did the judges (in)correctly interpret the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)? Has the unwillingness of Manila and Washington to champion the court’s decision made the prospect of Beijing’s eventual dominance in Southeast Asia more likely? Has China’s self-assigned and so far successful impunity undermined global compliance with UNCLOS? Or does Beijing’s pragmatic emphasis on realpolitik over moralpolitik point the way toward a practical alleviation of tensions that global jurisprudence cannot achieve? And what if the court’s ruling were applied to other sweeping maritime claims to land features in the Pacific, including the exclusive economic zones drawn by Tokyo around Okinotorishima or by Washington around its mid-ocean “Minor Outlying Islands”? Would the US comply? And lastly: What next?

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Jay L. Batongbacal
and Yann-huei Song are internationally regarded experts on the Law of the Sea with extensive knowledge of and experience in maritime affairs. Prof. Batongbacal’s many publications include a recent chapter in Power, Law, and Maritime Order in the South China Sea (2015). His doctorate in Jurisprudential Science is from Dalhousie University (2010). Prof. Song’s many publications include a recent volume, The United States and Maritime Disputes in the South China Sea (2016). His doctorate in the Science of Law is from the University of California-Berkeley (2000).

 

 

Jay L. Batongbacal Associate Professor, College of Law, and Director, Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, University of the Philippines, Manila, Philippines
Yann-huei Song Research Fellow, Institute of European and American Studies, Academia Sinica, and Adjunct Professor, School of Law, Soochow University, Taipei, Taiwan
Seminars
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Abstract: Current technologies and practices have created large stores of medical data, including electronic medical records, genomic data, and mobile-health measurements.  There is great promise for discovery and implementation of more efficient and effective health care, but there are also tensions between the sharing of data and the ability to make assurances about security and privacy to patients and study participants.  I will discuss these challenges in the setting of genomic research and medical record data mining.  In many cases, social mechanisms are likely to be the more reliable safeguards than technical mechanisms for privacy, security, and obfuscation.

About the Speaker: Russ Biagio Altman is a professor of bioengineering, genetics, medicine, and biomedical data science (and of computer science, by courtesy) and past chairman of the Bioengineering Department at Stanford University. His primary research interests are in the application of computing and informatics technologies to problems relevant to medicine. He is particularly interested in methods for understanding drug action at molecular, cellular, organism and population levels.  His lab studies how human genetic variation impacts drug response (e.g. http://www.pharmgkb.org/). Other work focuses on the analysis of biological molecules to understand the actions, interactions and adverse events of drugs (http://feature.stanford.edu/).  He helps lead an FDA-supported Center of Excellence in Regulatory Science & Innovation (https://pharm.ucsf.edu/cersi). Dr. Altman holds an A.B. from Harvard College, and M.D. from Stanford Medical School, and a Ph.D. in Medical Information Sciences from Stanford. He received the U.S. Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers and a National Science Foundation CAREER Award. He is a fellow of the American College of Physicians (ACP), the American College of Medical Informatics (ACMI), the American Institute of Medical and Biological Engineering (AIMBE), and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). He is a member of the National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine, IOM) of the National Academies.  He is a past-President, founding board member, and a Fellow of the International Society for Computational Biology (ISCB), and a past-President of the American Society for Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics (ASCPT).  He has chaired the Science Board advising the FDA Commissioner, currently serves on the NIH Director’s Advisory Committee, and is Co-Chair of the IOM Drug Forum.  He is an organizer of the annual Pacific Symposium on Biocomputing (http://psb.stanford.edu/), and a founder of Personalis, Inc.  Dr. Altman is board certified in Internal Medicine and in Clinical Informatics. He received the Stanford Medical School graduate teaching award in 2000, and mentorship award in 2014.

Encina Hall, 2nd floor

Russ Altman Professor of Bioengineering, of Genetics, of Medicine Stanford University
Seminars
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Abstract: In the 1970s, soaring oil prices provided huge revenues to oil producing Arab countries, which, together with private Arab companies and individuals, invested billions of dollars in the U.S. economy. The influx of Arab petodollars drew mixed reactions from Americans. Some feared that wealthy Arabs were “buying up America” and gaining control over the nation’s political, economic, educational, and cultural institutions. Others welcomed Arab investment as a boon to the U.S. economy and to global stability. Petrodollars also played a key role in Arab American history. Demeaning portrayals of oil-rich Arabs in media and government discourse—reaching a crescendo in the FBI’s “Abscam” sting operations of 1978-1980—goaded Arab Americans to adopt more organized methods of combating anti-Arab stereotypes. Salim Yaqub draws on his new book, Imperfect Strangers: Americans, Arabs, and U.S.-Middle East Relations in the 1970s, to explore the complex legacy of Arab petrodollars in American life.

About the Speaker: Salim Yaqub is Professor of History at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and Director of UCSB’s Center for Cold War Studies and International History. He is the author of Containing Arab Nationalism: The Eisenhower Doctrine and the Middle East (University of North Carolina, 2004) and of several articles and book chapters on the history of U.S. foreign relations, the international politics of the Middle East, and Arab American political activism. His second book, Imperfect Strangers: Americans, Arabs, and U.S.-Middle East Relations in the 1970s, was published by Cornell University Press in September 2016.

Encina Hall, 2nd floor

Salim Yaqub Professor of History University of California, Santa Barbara
Seminars
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Exploiting the variation in the amount of subsidy for child health care by municipality, age and time in Japan, this paper examines the effect of patient cost-sharing on child health care utilization. Using longitudinal claims data and triple difference-in-difference framework, we find that reduced cost-sharing significantly increases utilization of outpatient care among children. We further investigate whether these increase in outpatient visits solely reflects moral hazard or increases in beneficial care.

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hitoshi shigeoka
Hitoshi
Shigeoka
received a B.A. (2001) and an MA (2003) in chemical engineering from University of Tokyo, and master of international affairs (2006) and PhD in economics (2012) from Columbia University. Hitoshi’s research interests include health, labor, public economics, and experimental economics. His current research involves estimating the demand elasticity of health care utilization, examining the degree of supplier-induced demand by physicians and hospitals, examining the effects of competition and peer-to-peer teaching on learning, and investigating how the long-term incentives of mothers affect the timing of births.
Hitoshi Shigeoka Simon Fraser University
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Ambassador Osius will make remarks on U.S.-Vietnam relations in the wake of President Obama’s May 2016 visit. He will focus on the unfinished task of reconciliation. Relations were normalized in 1995. Yet many in Vietnam’s diaspora community, especially those most affected by the legacies of the war, oppose rapprochement and engagement. Overseas communities can play important and constructive roles in relations between their countries of origin and the rest of the world. Ambassador Osius will argue that a fully engaged Vietnamese-American community could and would contribute a lot toward growing the U.S. partnership with Vietnam, including helping to shape a beneficial future of greater trade, improved regional stability, and an expanded role for civil society.

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ted osius
Ted Osius is the sixth U.S. ambassador to Vietnam (December 2014-Present). Previously he was an associate professor and a senior fellow, respectively, at the National War College and the Center for Strategic and International Studies; deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Jakarta; and political minister-counselor at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi. His earlier career included service as regional environment officer for Southeast Asia and the Pacific in the U.S. State Department and as senior advisor on international affairs in the Office of the Vice President. 

This event is co-sponsored by the U.S. - Asia Security Initiative and the Southeast Asia Program
Ted Osius U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam
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Taiwan's Democracy Challenged

This discussion will be based on the authors' recently published book, Taiwan's Democracy Challenged: The Chen Shui-bian Years, Lynne Rienner Publishing (2016).

Abstract

At the end of Chen Shui-bian’s two terms as the president of Taiwan, his tenure was widely viewed as a disappointment, if not an outright failure. Today, the Chen years (2000-2008) are remembered mostly for relentless partisan fighting over cross-Strait relations and national identity questions, prolonged political gridlock, and damaging corruption scandals—as an era that challenged, rather than helped consolidate, Taiwan’s young democracy and squandered most of the promise with which it began.

Yet as Taiwan’s Democracy Challenged: The Chen Shui-bian Years documents, this conventional narrative obscures a more complex and more positive story. The chapters here cover the diverse array of ways in which democratic practices were deepened during this period, including the depoliticization of the military and intelligence forces, the ascendance of an independent and professional judicial system, a strengthened commitment to constitutionalism and respect for the rule of law, and the creation of greater space for civil society representatives in the policy-making process. Even the conventional wisdom about unprecedented political polarization during this era is misleading: while elite politics became more divided and acrimonious, mass public opinion on cross-Strait relations and national identity was actually converging.

Not all developments were so positive: strong partisans on both sides of the political divide remained only weakly committed to democratic principles, the reporting of news organizations became more sensationalist and partisan, and the Taiwanese state’s exceptional autonomy from sectoral interests and vaunted capacity for long-term planning deteriorated. But on the whole, the authors argue, these years were not squandered. By the end of the Chen Shui-bian era, Taiwan’s democracy was firmly consolidated. 

 

This event is sponsored by the Taiwan Democracy Project in the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. It is free and open to the public, and lunch will be served. Please RSVP by October 31.

Taiwan's Democracy Challenged presentation slides
Download pdf

CISAC Central Conference Room, Encina Hall 2nd Floor

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C147
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-6448 (650) 723-1928
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Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science and Sociology
diamond_encina_hall.png MA, PhD

Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy (including an online course on EdX). At the Hoover Institution, he co-leads the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Project on the U.S., China, and the World. At FSI, he is among the core faculty of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, which he directed for six and a half years. He leads FSI’s Israel Studies Program and is a member of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. He also co-leads the Global Digital Policy Incubator, based at FSI’s Cyber Policy Center. He served for 32 years as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.

Diamond’s research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy and on U.S. and international policies to defend and advance democracy. His book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history,” and offers an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home and abroad.  A paperback edition with a new preface was released by Penguin in April 2020. His other books include: In Search of Democracy (2016), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1989). He has edited or coedited more than fifty books, including China’s Influence and American Interests (2019, with Orville Schell), Silicon Triangle: The United States, China, Taiwan the Global Semiconductor Security (2023, with James O. Ellis Jr. and Orville Schell), and The Troubling State of India’s Democracy (2024, with Sumit Ganguly and Dinsha Mistree).

During 2002–03, Diamond served as a consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report, Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has advised and lectured to universities and think tanks around the world, and to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other organizations dealing with governance and development. During the first three months of 2004, Diamond served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. His 2005 book, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, was one of the first books to critically analyze America's postwar engagement in Iraq.

Among Diamond’s other edited books are Democracy in Decline?; Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab WorldWill China Democratize?; and Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, all edited with Marc F. Plattner; and Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani. With Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, he edited the series, Democracy in Developing Countries, which helped to shape a new generation of comparative study of democratic development.

Download full-resolution headshot; photo credit: Rod Searcey.

Former Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Faculty Chair, Jan Koum Israel Studies Program
Date Label
Larry Diamond Senior Fellow and Principal Investigator, Taiwan Democracy Project
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Abstract: Deterrence is one of the most central concepts in international relations scholarship. Countries can dissuade changes to the status quo, according to the logic of deterrence, by threatening an opponent with pain (deterrence by punishment) or by reducing the probability that an opponent will achieve its aims (deterrence by denial). In the realm of international security, most deterrence theorists assume that states need military capabilities to deter by punishment or denial. Deterrence works, based on this line of thinking, because states can use military power to destroy cities, bomb critical military targets, or blunt land invasions. It is also possible, however, to punish an adversary without invoking destruction militarily. Yet deterrence through non-military means remains poorly understood in international relations. This project develops a theory to identify the conditions under which countries can deter opponents without using threats of military force. I explore the implications of this theory in one particular context: the development of dual-use nuclear technology. Having the capability to build nuclear weapons — a condition known as “nuclear latency” — may provide countries with deterrence benefits that we normally associate with having a nuclear arsenal. When states achieve nuclear latency, they (implicitly) threaten to develop nuclear weapons at some point in the future. The threat here is to pursue a policy that others would find undesirable, not to physically destroy things of value on another state’s territory, as in traditional deterrence theory. Does this kind of threat discourage others from meddling in a country’s affairs? This study presents the results of an analysis designed to identify the effects of nuclear latency (and nuclear arsenals) on the onset of international conflict from 1945 to 2000, drawing on a new dataset of sensitive dual-use nuclear plants in 32 countries.

About the Speaker: Matthew Fuhrmann is an associate professor of political science and Ray A. Rothrock `77 Fellow at Texas A&M University. He was named an Andrew Carnegie Fellow in 2016 by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. He is the author of Atomic Assistance: How “Atoms for Peace” Programs Cause Nuclear Insecurity (Cornell University Press, 2012) and the coauthor of Nuclear Weapons and Coercive Diplomacy (Cambridge University Press, 2016). His work has been published or is forthcoming in peer-reviewed journals such as American Journal of Political ScienceBritish Journal of Political ScienceInternational OrganizationInternational SecurityInternational Studies QuarterlyJournal of Conflict ResolutionJournal of Peace Research, and Journal of Politics. He has also written opinion pieces for The Atlantic (online), The Christian Science MonitorSlate, and USA Today. He is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations. You can follow him on Twitter @mcfuhrmann.

Encina Hall, 2nd floor

Visiting Associate Professor CISAC
Seminars
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Abstract:

Low-income countries are less productive than their high-income counterparts. Is one reason because labor in high-income countries can more easily move to where it is most productive? We use detailed individual data combined with a spatial general equilibrium model of worker selection to study the determinants of labor productivity growth in Indonesia and the United States over the last 40 years. We find that while improvements in in situ labor productivity and the spatial allocation of human capital resources account for about 55% of Indonesian labor productivity growth, improvements in spatial mobility, due to lower costs of movement and improvements in the amenity of high productivity locations, account for nearly as much: 45%. In a comparison to the US, higher costs of movement in Indonesia account for 10% of the labor productivity gap between the two countries. These results suggest an important role of migration to explain aggregate productivity gaps both across and within countries.
 

Speaker Bio:

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Melanie Morten is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Stanford University. Her research focuses on migration in developing countries, including analyzing how migration changes informal financial safety nets and understanding the costs and potential productivity benefits of migration. She has worked on projects in India, Brazil, and Indonesia. She has a PhD in economics from Yale University.

Melanie Morten Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Stanford University
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Abstract:

American government is incapable of dealing effectively with the challenges of modern society. Why the dysfunction? The usual suspects include polarization and the rise in campaign spending. But William Howell and Terry Moe argue—in their new book, Relic—that the roots of dysfunction go much deeper: to the Constitution itself. The framers designed the Constitution some 225 years ago for a simple agrarian society. But the government they created, a separation of powers system with a parochial Congress at its center, is ill-equipped to address the serious social problems that inevitably arise in a complex post-industrial nation. We are prisoners of the past. The solution is to update the Constitution for modern times. A promising step forward, the authors argue, is a simple reform that pushes Congress and its pathologies to the periphery of policymaking, and brings presidents to center stage.

 

Speaker Bio:

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terry moe
Terry M. Moe is the William Bennett Munro Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He has written extensively on public bureaucracy and the presidency, as well as the theory of political institutions more generally. His articles include "The New Economics of Organization," "The Politicized Presidency," "The Politics of Bureaucratic Structure," "Political Institutions: The Neglected Side of the Story," "Presidents, Institutions, and Theory," “The Presidential Power of Unilateral Action” (with William Howell), “Power and Political Institutions,” “Political Control and the Power of the Agent,” and “Do Politicians Use Policy to Make Politics? The Case of Public Sector Labor Laws” (with Sarah F. Anzia). His most recent work is Relic: How Our Constitution Undermines Effective Government--And Why We Need a More Powerful Presidency (with William Howell, 2016)." He has also written extensively on the politics of American education. His newest books are The Comparative Politics of Education: Teachers Unions and Education Systems Around the World (edited with Susanne Wiborg, forthcoming 2017) and Special Interest: Teachers Unions and America’s Public Schools (2011). His past work on education includes Politics, Markets, and America's Schools (1990) and Liberating Learning: Technology, Politics, and the Future of American Education (2009), both with John E. Chubb, and Schools, Vouchers, and the American Public (2001).

Terry M. Moe William Bennett Munro Professor of Political Science at Stanford University
Seminars
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RSVPS ARE NO LONGER BEING ACCEPTED AS WE HAVE REACHED VENUE CAPACITY. PRESS FILMING IS PROHIBITED.

Seating is first come, first served.

 

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A Panel Discussion Featuring

Ambassador HE Yafei

Former China Ambassador

to the United Nations

 

Panelists:

Ambassador Michael H. Armacost

Shorenstein APARC Distinguished Fellow, former U.S. Ambassador to Japan and the Philippines

Ambassador Karl W. Eikenberry

Director, U.S.-Asia Security Initiative; former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan

Professor Jean C. Oi (Moderator)

Director Shorenstein APARC China Program; William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics

 

Ambassador HE Yafei served as Vice Minister of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China.; Counselor of the Chinese Permanent Mission to the United Nations; Deputy Director General of the Arms Control Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Minister Counselor and Minister of the Embassy of China in the United States; Director General of the America and Pacific Department; Assistant Minister and Vice Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; and Representative and Ambassador of the Permanent Mission of China to the United Nations Office at Geneva and other international organizations in Switzerland.

 

Co-sponsored by the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center’s U.S.–Asia Security Initiative and the China Program

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