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How does the history and culture of the American West affect its capacity to address Climate Change? In a CDDRL seminar talk, Bruce Cain addressed the question by drawing on findings from his latest book, Under Fire and Under Water: Wildfire, Flooding, and the Fight for Climate Resilience in the American West (University of Oklahoma Press, 2023). Cain — director of the Bill Lane Center for the American West, Professor of Political Science at Stanford University, and CDDRL faculty affiliate — argued that the federalist nature of the U.S., along with regional history and idiosyncratic human behavior, have made resolving collective action problems uniquely difficult.

Cain opened his talk with a reflection on American federalism. He indicated that the U.S. strongly federalist political system aims to delegate the provisions of specific public goods across its national, state, and local jurisdictions. However, the worsening issue of climate change — and its negative externalities — transcends these jurisdictional borders, thereby creating a coordination challenge. There is fracture at both the vertical level — between federal, state, and local governments — and the horizontal level, across branches of government and between states and localities themselves. Polarization, geographic sorting, and rising inequality have exacerbated the problem.

Adequately addressing climate change requires extensive coordination and planning, which is not often the strength of a highly diverse democracy. Furthermore, the public, even when it is not polarized along party lines, may hesitate to take sufficient steps to protect climate progress because people may not want to pay now for future benefits.

This national framework serves as the backdrop for the West’s regional history. The initial move to the West required incentives, as people were uneasy traveling into a land seen as untamed and wild. This created an appropriative culture, as settlers had to be motivated to undertake the risks of living and working in the American West. After World War II, the private nature of this land began to get in the way of the maturing environmental movement.

The Western climate is arid, a characteristic that will be further exemplified by the changing climate. As such, in California, we face two “water problems.” First a “too little” water problem — droughts. But we also face a “too much” water problem — sea level rise and flooding. The “too little” water problem leads to extensive wildfires — the smoke from which has serious health effects. While fires are one of the most visible and concerning effects of climate change, their bearing on electoral outcomes is marginal, as only a small number of people lose their homes in a given year.

In many places where homes have been destroyed, they tend to be promptly rebuilt. Unfortunately, this is not the only case of building in disaster-prone areas. Infrastructure continues to be built in flood zones on the coast, and neighborhoods routinely decimated by fires are erected time and time again. But this issue is confronted with a competing priority, namely the lack of housing in the state, making policy decisions all the more complicated.

Governmental fractioning and perverse incentives make the coordination necessary to address these issues even more difficult.

So what does all of this mean going forward? Cain believes the federalist nature of this country may mean a lower ceiling on progress but a higher floor in the long run. Our progress will be slower but more resilient to party shifts in the executive. He also predicts that U.S. decarbonization efforts will vary more by income and lag behind other OECD countries. Finally, in the absence of coordination, the U.S. strength will remain in providing innovation and pushing for the early adoption of first-mover policies.

A copy of Cain's presentation slides can be viewed here.

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Salma Mousa shares her research findings evaluating the effectiveness of a waste sorting intervention in Lebanon.
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Civic Behaviors and Recycling in Lebanon

Salma Mousa shares her research findings evaluating the effectiveness of a waste sorting intervention in Lebanon.
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Tomila Lankina presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on May 9, 2024.
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The Surprising Persistence of Pre-Communist Social Structures in Russia

Tomila Lankina’s award-winning book, “The Estate Origins of Democracy in Russia: From Imperial Bourgeoisie to Post-Communist Middle Class” (Cambridge University Press, 2022), challenges the assumption that the 1917 revolution succeeded in leveling old estate hierarchies, arguing that these social structures persist today.
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Bruce Cain argues that the federalist nature of the U.S., along with regional history and idiosyncratic human behavior, have made resolving collective action problems uniquely difficult.

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How can we encourage citizens to comply with desired civic behaviors? In a CDDRL seminar series talk, Salma Mousa, assistant professor of Political Science at UCLA and former CDDRL postdoctoral fellow, explored this broader question via a field experiment in Lebanon. In conjunction with a municipality and local NGO, Mousa and her team evaluated the effectiveness of a waste sorting intervention.

In 2015, some of Lebanon’s primary landfills reached capacity, forcing displaced waste into the streets and prompting public outcry. Lebanon's crisis is not for lack of money; the country spends ten times more than nearby Tunisia despite having only half the population of Tunisia. This suggests that Lebanon’s issue reflects mismanagement rather than a lack of resources.

A key component of this mismanagement is a lack of sorting at the source of waste. Effective sorting, Mousa argues, requires collaboration between citizens, civil society, and government. Overcoming this collective action problem does not just require physical infrastructure and intrinsic motivation; it also requires that people trust that their neighbors and government will do their part.

To test their sorting intervention, Mousa and her collaborators chose the small, wealthy, and predominantly Christian town of Bikfaya. The town is characterized by high levels of social cohesion and a “green” reputation that is central to its identity.

Working with the municipality and an NGO called “Nadeera,” the team divided the town into neighborhoods, randomly assigning treatment and control. The treatment group received a box with QR codes they could put on their trash bags and an app where they could access feedback on their sorting. They were given instructions on proper waste management and told to sort their waste into recycling, organic materials and other — sticking their personal QR codes on each bag.

After pickup, inspectors at the nearby waste management facility would use the app to provide personalized feedback on sorting quality, giving participants the opportunity to improve.

This intervention makes trash sorting a sanctionable behavior, with social pressure to enforce it, because participation is visible to neighbors via the QR code stickers placed on their trash bags.

The team examined three distinct outcomes. First, the quality of sorting. Second, participation in a raffle for “green” prizes, designed to measure the impact of the intervention on other climate-friendly behaviors. Finally, they measured participation in volunteer opportunities for environmental initiatives.

Two months after the intervention, the program improved sorting quality by an average of 14 percent. That said, at the twelve-month mark, the effect was null. Eight months in, the program and app feedback ceased, making it difficult to distinguish between diminishing long-term effects and lack of sanctioning.

Treated participants entered the raffle at two times the rate of the control group, but the mechanisms behind this increase remain unclear. The rise in uptake could be attributed to behavioral change or familiarity with the NGO as a result of treatment.

On the volunteering measure, the treated group saw a 7% negative effect, meaning they were less likely to sign up for local environmental initiatives if assigned to treatment. Mousa and her collaborators theorize that this is due to moral licensing, or the feeling that they have already done their part.

While the effects of the primary outcome became null after a year, the treated group did see a substantial improvement in sorting quality — a big win for the town on environmental and economic measures. Future iterations of this intervention will include consistent monitoring or cash benefits to promote prolonged participation.

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Tomila Lankina presented her research in a CDDRL seminar on May 9, 2024.
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The Surprising Persistence of Pre-Communist Social Structures in Russia

Tomila Lankina’s award-winning book, “The Estate Origins of Democracy in Russia: From Imperial Bourgeoisie to Post-Communist Middle Class” (Cambridge University Press, 2022), challenges the assumption that the 1917 revolution succeeded in leveling old estate hierarchies, arguing that these social structures persist today.
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Maria Popova presents in a REDS Seminar co-hosted by CDDRL and The Europe Center
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Corruption in Ukraine and EU Accession

While some observers have claimed that Ukraine’s corruption renders it unprepared for EU accession, Maria Popova’s research suggests otherwise.
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Salma Mousa shares her research findings evaluating the effectiveness of a waste sorting intervention in Lebanon.

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How have pre-communist social structures persisted in Russia, and why does this persistence matter for understanding post-communist political regime trajectories? In a CDDRL seminar series talk, Tomila Lankina, Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, discussed her award-winning book, The Estate Origins of Democracy in Russia: From Imperial Bourgeoisie to Post-Communist Middle Class (Cambridge University Press, 2022)The book challenges the assumption that the 1917 revolution succeeded in leveling old estate hierarchies, arguing that these social structures persist today. 

While analyses of the bourgeoisie factor heavily into the understanding of many societies, the relevance of this group is frequently left out when discussing countries like Russia and China, on the assumption that they had been completely leveled by revolutionary ruptures. Lankina’s book critically assesses this assumption. It adopts a uniquely interdisciplinary approach, utilizing archives, subnational comparisons, statistical analysis, social network analysis, and interviews with descendants. 

In characterizing the social structure of pre-communist Russia, Lankina noted that peasants comprised 77 percent of the population on the eve of the revolution. Other social groups, which she refers to as “educated estates” because of their higher literacy rates compared to those of peasants, included the urban meshchane, the merchants, nobility, and clergy. Out of the educated estates, meshchane constituted the majority, or 10 percent of the population. While their homes appeared rather modest, members of the meshchane exhibited characteristics of the urban bourgeoisie, and even their dress differed from that of the rural estate. They enjoyed much higher literacy rates than peasants.

Lankina explained that the comparatively high status of these “educated estates” — the meshchane, merchants, nobility, and clergy — persisted even after the Bolshevik revolution. To illustrate this, she highlighted partially intact social circles of the highly networked merchants, nobles, and tsarist-inspired soviet schools. Letters from the Samara province indicate that while many high-status citizens emigrated, there were matriarchs who stayed, spreading the tsarist-era values to their children and grandchildren after the revolution. Regardless of whether this middle class was endowed with democratic values, Lankina maintained that they passed human and entrepreneurial capital onto their offspring.

How did these estates endure? While the literature clearly articulates what happened to the ruling classes following the revolution, less time has been spent understanding what happened to the educated, middle-class segments of society. How did they adapt? 

Lankina proposed three different routes. First is the “pop-up brigade,” wherein young, educated individuals traveled around promoting education to peasant workers, instantly employable and absorbable into a new society. Then there is the “museum society,” where prominent nobles and merchants joined insular cultural institutions like archives, provincial libraries, and museums. Finally, “the organization man” denotes professionally skilled individuals, such as medics, who retained their positions following the revolution as the social hierarchy got absorbed into newer organizations. 

To illustrate the significance of this persistence in social structures and values, Lankina, drawing on her co-authored paper with Alexander Libman (APSR 2021), indicated that meshchane concentration (as opposed to more recent educational indices) is a better predictor of a post-communist region’s openness, at least in the 1990s.

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Maria Popova presents in a REDS Seminar co-hosted by CDDRL and The Europe Center
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Corruption in Ukraine and EU Accession

While some observers have claimed that Ukraine’s corruption renders it unprepared for EU accession, Maria Popova’s research suggests otherwise.
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Will Dobson, book cover of "Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power," and Chris Walker
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How Can Democracies Defend Against the Sharp Power of Autocrats?

Christopher Walker, Vice President for Studies and Analysis at the National Endowment for Democracy, and Will Dobson, co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, discussed their new book, “Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power” (Johns Hopkins University Press 2023).
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Eugene Finkel presents during a REDS Seminar co-hosted by The Europe Center and CDDRL on April 18, 2024.
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The Historical Roots of Russia’s Quest to Dominate Ukraine

According to Eugene Finkel, the Kenneth H. Keller Associate Professor of International Affairs at Johns Hopkins University, Russia’s recurrent attacks against Ukraine can be traced to issues of identity and security.
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Tomila Lankina’s award-winning book, “The Estate Origins of Democracy in Russia: From Imperial Bourgeoisie to Post-Communist Middle Class” (Cambridge University Press, 2022), challenges the assumption that the 1917 revolution succeeded in leveling old estate hierarchies, arguing that these social structures persist today.

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Is Ukraine too corrupt to be a part of the European Union? In a recent Rethinking European Development and Security (REDS) seminar talk co-hosted by CDDRL and The Europe Center, Maria Popova, McGill University Associate Professor of Political Science, assessed how serious the issue of Ukrainian corruption really is. While some observers have claimed that Ukraine’s corruption renders it unprepared for EU accession, Popova’s research suggests otherwise. Contrasting Ukraine to recent EU entrants — Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia — she finds that corruption indices are not very helpful in drawing reliable conclusions.

In all four said countries, corruption is touted as the most salient issue, with strikingly similar scandals occurring across them. Over the last ten years, Ukraine has developed an extensive anti-corruption infrastructure, forming institutions for the prevention, investigation, and prosecution of corruption cases, as well as for asset recovery. These institutions have produced mixed results, and issues of political competition between institutions have tainted their wider reputation, with the National Agency for Prevention of Corruption receiving the most positive feedback. Innovative e-procurement systems like ProZorro have been internationally praised. Ukraine is unique in that its anti-corruption infrastructure came well before attempting EU accession. 

Bulgaria, on the other hand, established its anti-corruption agencies ten years after becoming an EU member. These institutions have since become politically compromised; so much so that anti-corruption reformists recently forced their abolition. 

In Romania, institutions were created around the time of accession and have been successful in holding corrupt oligarchs accountable. Similarly, Croatia’s anti-corruption reforms proceeded during accession negotiations.

Although the four countries adopted similar anti-corruption institutional reforms, today Ukraine tracks as significantly more corrupt than the EU members across measures of regime, public sector, executive, and political corruption, even though it is cleaner than Romania was when it started accession negotiations, more corrupt than Bulgaria was, and equally corrupt as Croatia at its start of negotiations. Why? Popova argued that the indices are fundamentally non-comparative and thus need to be taken with a grain of salt. The score for each country is determined by experts that focus exclusively on that country, who consider variation in corruption over time only. Moreover, the abstract conceptual definition of corruption is applied to their narrow case knowledge and experience and thus reflects local, rather than generalizable conceptualization. 

While index scores correlate with local perceptions, this, too, may just reflect a narrative on the ground. If the local narrative is that the country is highly corrupt, the population will likely perceive it to be, with no sense of its real magnitude. 

When analyzing Ukraine’s anti-corruption institutions, Popova finds that Ukraine is better prepared for EU accession than is widely assumed.

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Will Dobson, book cover of "Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power," and Chris Walker
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How Can Democracies Defend Against the Sharp Power of Autocrats?

Christopher Walker, Vice President for Studies and Analysis at the National Endowment for Democracy, and Will Dobson, co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, discussed their new book, “Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power” (Johns Hopkins University Press 2023).
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Eugene Finkel presents during a REDS Seminar co-hosted by The Europe Center and CDDRL on April 18, 2024.
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The Historical Roots of Russia’s Quest to Dominate Ukraine

According to Eugene Finkel, the Kenneth H. Keller Associate Professor of International Affairs at Johns Hopkins University, Russia’s recurrent attacks against Ukraine can be traced to issues of identity and security.
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Beatriz Magaloni presents during a CDDRL research seminar on April 11, 2024.
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Can Indigenous Political Autonomy Reduce Organized Crime? Insights from Mexico

Beatriz Magaloni, the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations, presented her latest research during a CDDRL seminar talk.
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While some observers have claimed that Ukraine’s corruption renders it unprepared for EU accession, Maria Popova’s research suggests otherwise.

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What is authoritarian sharp power, and how has it shaped the current geopolitical landscape and the state of democracy around the globe? In a CDDRL research seminar series talk, Christopher Walker — Vice President for Studies and Analysis at the National Endowment for Democracy — and Will Dobson, the co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, discussed their new book Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power (Johns Hopkins University Press 2023). The co-authors argue that dictators have moved beyond the suppression of their own citizens and are now actively attempting to erode the pillars of democratic societies. 

Conventional wisdom of the last 25 years suggests that the solution to our “authoritarian problem” is simple: the passage of time. Over time, scholars argued, authoritarian political systems would gradually and peacefully give way to democratic ones, with rising demands for political rights. Globalization would bind authoritarian elites to their Western counterparts via business, and the internet would expose citizens to new ways of thinking. 

However, the authoritarian regimes have not subsided. In fact, they have worked to undermine democratic institutions in other countries. Thus, Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power serves as a rebuttal to these illusions, arguing that free societies can no longer afford this sort of complacency. 

Autocrats see democracies as an existential threat to their way of rule, both at home and abroad. Accordingly, they have begun reaching across borders to stymie democracy where it does not exist and undermine it where it does. 

How are they doing this? By attacking the facet of democratic society people believed was its principal strength, namely its openness. While autocrats are able to harden themselves and their societies from the free world, commitment to democracy fundamentally means a free exchange of ideas. This allows autocrats to target the minds of foreign publics by manipulating key institutions, such as universities, think tanks, media outlets, and entertainment companies. 

But it is not just autocrats’ outward-looking strategy that has permitted this infiltration; democracies themselves are complacent. Many powerful actors have been willing to cede their values and principles, sometimes for money or prestige, but sometimes just due to a lack of understanding and foresight. 

To prevent further influence, Walker and Dobson stress that democracies need to take both reactive and proactive measures. In response to the offense of autocracies, democracies must commit to prioritizing openness and transparency. They must, for example, prevent deals that extend China’s influence. Democracies must also work to correct knowledge asymmetries and think of innovative ways to get information about China and its role into the wider world. On the proactive front, democracies must defend their own values and the intrinsic benefit of a democratic system.

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Eugene Finkel presents during a REDS Seminar co-hosted by The Europe Center and CDDRL on April 18, 2024.
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The Historical Roots of Russia’s Quest to Dominate Ukraine

According to Eugene Finkel, the Kenneth H. Keller Associate Professor of International Affairs at Johns Hopkins University, Russia’s recurrent attacks against Ukraine can be traced to issues of identity and security.
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Beatriz Magaloni presents during a CDDRL research seminar on April 11, 2024.
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Can Indigenous Political Autonomy Reduce Organized Crime? Insights from Mexico

Beatriz Magaloni, the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations, presented her latest research during a CDDRL seminar talk.
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Christopher Walker, Vice President for Studies and Analysis at the National Endowment for Democracy, and Will Dobson, co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, discussed their new book, “Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power” (Johns Hopkins University Press 2023).

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What has driven Russia’s violence in and against Ukraine from the 19th century to the contemporary era? In a recent Rethinking European Development and Security (REDS) Seminar talk co-hosted by The Europe Center and CDDRL, Eugene Finkel, the Kenneth H. Keller Associate Professor of International Affairs at Johns Hopkins University, argued that Russia’s recurrent attacks against Ukraine can be traced to issues of identity and security. Finkel draws on what he described as a two-hundred-year-long quest by Russia to dominate Ukraine, as detailed in his upcoming book Intent to Destroy (due for release in November 2024 by Basic Books).

Reflecting on the role of Russian identity in driving the country’s attempts to capture Ukraine, Finkel pointed out that many Russians think of Ukrainians as a subbranch of the Russian people.  These stark views on identity, he noted, are partly the product of the struggle between the Russian Empire and the Polish Independence movement. In an effort to avoid Polish influence, Russia began emphasizing unity between the Russian and Ukrainian people.

Security is another key driver of Russia’s aggression. There are large geographical features that block off Ukraine from the rest of Europe, but no such dividing features exist between Ukraine and Russia. As such, any force that enters Ukraine can easily invade Russia. Historical repetition of this route has made Ukraine seemingly imperative to Russian national security.

Regime security also plays an important role. Many of the democratic ideas reaching Russia were diffused through Ukraine. Abiding by the logic of Russians and Ukrainians as one people, if Ukraine can be democratic, so can Russia. Thus, an independent democratic Ukraine poses a serious ideological threat to the regime. 

Finkel argues that identity and security have always been the driving factors of Russia’s aggression. To illustrate this continuity of this trend, he draws upon a case study from the early 20th century, namely the Russian occupation of Galicia and Bukovyna. As rising Ukrainian activism threatened the Russian empire, the regime responded with propaganda peddling the notion that Ukraine had been created to destroy Russia from within – a stark parallel to propaganda today. Russia also waged a war to “liberate” the Ukrainians, believing that annexing Galicia would allow Russia to reestablish its rightful boundaries.

The conflict resulted in violence and plunder against civilians, targeting of Ukrainian community leaders, banning Ukrainian publications, and switching the education system – actions closely mimicking those of Russia today. 

In 2022, Russia’s “divide and repress” strategy failed. Ukraine witnessed the emergence of a nation – Ukrainian identity became more pronounced. Russia’s initial plan was to repress Ukraine’s elites, not conduct mass executions. But as the war progressed and Ukrainians turned from brother to traitor, the violence escalated. 

This obsession begs the question – when will Russia’s quest to dominate Ukraine end? Or rather, how? Given the central role of identity in driving this quest, Finkel believes that the only realistic path for ending this longstanding trend is changing the education system – a path that Russia seems to be moving further away from.

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Beatriz Magaloni presents during a CDDRL research seminar on April 11, 2024.
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Can Indigenous Political Autonomy Reduce Organized Crime? Insights from Mexico

Beatriz Magaloni, the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations, presented her latest research during a CDDRL seminar talk.
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Alisha Holland
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Infrastructure, Campaign Finance, and the Rise of the Contracting State

Harvard University Professor of Government Alisha Holland explains how the advent of public-private partnerships has shifted politicians’ orientation toward infrastructure projects.
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According to Eugene Finkel, the Kenneth H. Keller Associate Professor of International Affairs at Johns Hopkins University, Russia’s recurrent attacks against Ukraine can be traced to issues of identity and security.

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Can indigenous communities ruling through politically autonomous institutions better protect against cartel takeover? In a CDDRL seminar series talk, Beatriz Magaloni, the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations, a Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Director of CDDRL’s Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab argued that in Mexico, indigenous communities ruled by traditional governance have proven more resilient against cartel takeovers than comparable municipalities relying on state-backed security provision. 

Existing literature typically frames violence in developing countries as a manifestation of state weakness. But, in many areas of the world, organized criminal groups infiltrate the state, buying off intelligence, protection, and impunity. 

In Mexico, cartels infiltrate local governments by funding political campaigns, killing those who refuse to be bought off. In this context, the selection of leaders through conventional Western multi-party elections is an effective vehicle through which cartels can extend their influence. 

The capture of municipal political bodies is advantageous to cartels as it allows them to diversify their revenue generation. Access to intelligence, resources, and territory makes demanding regular payments and extracting natural resources far easier. It also allows cartels to gain discretionary power in the decision of who the state grants protection to or not. This bleak reality in which the borders between the state, organized crime, rule of law, and impunity are blurred elevates the urgency of investigating to what extent “opting out” of the state represents a viable alternative in the provision of security. 

In Oaxaca and other regions across Mexico, indigenous communities have the right to govern autonomously. In their traditional form of governance, known as “usos y costumbres,” local elections and political parties are banned. Authorities are instead selected through community assemblies, in which decision-making is highly participatory. Based on this traditional governance, a growing number of indigenous communities have established community police groups, which are detached from the state and constituted by local community members with little or no professional police training. 

Importantly, autonomous indigenous municipalities still receive state transfers and cannot be punished for opting out of the party system. In conducting extensive qualitative fieldwork, Magaloni sought to understand whether this traditional governance structure prohibits cartel infiltration and keeps communities safer. 

The team hypothesized that higher levels of cartel presence would increase violence – which they proxied with homicide rates. They expected less cartel presence and less violence in Usos (autonomous indigenous communities) relative to party-controlled municipalities. Lower levels of police corruption and better deterrence against criminal cells were also expected for communities ruled by Usos

The initial exploratory analysis showed that following the autonomous governance reform, Usos communities experienced a sharp decrease in violence. When the drug war began in 2006, these communities continued to see low levels of violence, whereas comparable municipalities suffered a sharp increase. 

Magaloni employed a variety of difference in difference analyses to control for possible confounders. Usos communities were compared to similarly sized, similarly indigenous communities. Using a geographic discontinuity design, Usos were also compared to municipalities just 1 km from the border of Oaxaca – those ruled by multi-party elections. The analysis controlled for opium poppy suitability and history of ancestral governance practices. 

The analysis confirmed that the more cartel presence, the more violence a community experienced. Across all models, the team was able to conclude that Usos communities saw significantly less cartel presence, fewer homicides, and less violence. 

Magaloni’s work highlights the state's limitations in creating order in circumstances where criminal groups have compromised it. It also suggests that in the context of these predatory regimes, indigenous political autonomy can serve as a powerful rampart to the corrosive presence of organized crime.

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Alisha Holland
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Infrastructure, Campaign Finance, and the Rise of the Contracting State

Harvard University Professor of Government Alisha Holland explains how the advent of public-private partnerships has shifted politicians’ orientation toward infrastructure projects.
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Sophie Richardson
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The Global Dimensions of the Chinese Government Human Rights Abuses

Why have democracies failed in curtailing Xi Jinping’s human rights abuses? And how can they better insulate themselves from Beijing's transnational threats? CDDRL Visiting Scholar and former China Director at Human Rights Watch Sophie Richardson presented her research on the Chinese government’s deteriorating human rights record.
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Beatriz Magaloni, the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations, presented her latest research during a CDDRL seminar talk.

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Why do politicians invest in infrastructure projects that will not be completed during their time in office? In a CDDRL seminar series talk, Harvard University Professor of Government Alisha Holland addressed the question, shedding light on how the advent of public-private partnerships (PPPs) has shifted politicians’ orientation toward infrastructure projects.  

According to Holland, infrastructure investment has been on the rise in the developing world despite witnessing a steady decline in advanced industrial democracies. Why? The influx of PPPs has made infrastructure projects appealing to politicians, who have utilized such contracts to raise funds for electoral campaigns and delay project costs.

In the past, infrastructure projects were largely aimed at creating jobs for a given politician’s base of supporters and would-be voters. Thus, politicians were keen on seeing the successful completion of such projects. In contrast, today, infrastructure projects have become vehicles, not for securing votes, but for campaign finance, thanks to the PPP framework and the campaign donations it has helped generate for politicians, albeit indirectly. Thus, the mere launching of such projects (regardless of their completion) has become a political end in and of itself.

Infrastructure, Holland indicated, is at the heart of salient questions surrounding democracy, development, and state capacity. It also plays a central role in campaign finance in many developing democracies.  

Conventional wisdom suggests that politicians want to inaugurate infrastructure projects that employ constituents and future voters. If true, politicians should be signing contracts for such projects early in their terms to allow time for job creation before reelection rolls around. But this does not appear to be the case. In Latin American countries where presidents can run for reelection, two-thirds of contracts occur in the last 18 months before an election. 

Holland argued that this trend is rooted in governments’ shifting role in infrastructure. Whereas the state had long led infrastructure projects and hired directly with the goal of job creation, neoliberal reforms in the 1990s made governments rely more heavily on private contractors. Accordingly, the incentive structure facing politicians has changed. They have become less interested in creating jobs for supporters and more interested in securing campaign donations through the process of contracting private sector entities. The partnership with the private sector, moreover, has allowed politicians to hide project costs and shift liabilities to future administrations. The result is an influx of high-cost infrastructure projects with limited utility.

On a broader level, Holland’s findings help explain the widespread shift from political patronage to vote-buying in many countries. The advent of state-private sector partnerships has enabled politicians to raise the cash needed to fund vote-buying machines at a large scale.

How can the problem be mitigated? Much of the answer revolves around “inhibitory institutions.” These institutions could veto unwieldy projects before their commencement, as distinct from traditional mechanisms of horizontal accountability, like audit courts, which can only intervene after the damage is done.

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Sophie Richardson
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The Global Dimensions of the Chinese Government Human Rights Abuses

Why have democracies failed in curtailing Xi Jinping’s human rights abuses? And how can they better insulate themselves from Beijing's transnational threats? CDDRL Visiting Scholar and former China Director at Human Rights Watch Sophie Richardson presented her research on the Chinese government’s deteriorating human rights record.
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Josiah Ober presents during a CDDRL research seminar on February 22, 2024.
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The Civic Bargain and Democratic Survival

How do democracies arise, and what conditions promote their survival? In a CDDRL seminar series talk, Professor of Political Science and Classics Josiah Ober addressed this question, drawing on his latest book, “The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives” (Princeton University Press), co-authored with Brook Manville.
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Harvard University Professor of Government Alisha Holland explains how the advent of public-private partnerships has shifted politicians’ orientation toward infrastructure projects.

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Why have democracies failed in curtailing Xi Jinping’s human rights abuses? And how can they better insulate themselves from Beijing's transnational threats? At a CDDRL research seminar, Sophie Richardson — CDDRL Visiting Scholar and former China Director at Human Rights Watch — presented her research on the Chinese government’s deteriorating human rights record. 

While the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s human rights violations are longstanding, Richardson noted, they witnessed a notable escalation under Xi Jinping’s rule. Among them are free speech restrictions, the silencing of civil society, increased surveillance, and forced labor. 

But, as Richardson pointed out, these violations do not stop at China’s borders and have taken on a transnational dimension.

Illustrating the severity and scope of Beijing's human rights abuses, Richardson provided examples of both activists and party members who have been targeted by the CCP. These include an activist who was arrested on the charge of “picking quarrels and causing trouble” and later fell ill and died in detention, as well as the former Chinese ambassador to the US — a loyal party member — who was called back to China and disappeared for some time.

What have democracies done in the face of these abuses? Sanctions, visa bans, and import/export controls are common levers. Some countries — Canada being a prime example — have expanded their refugee status for communities targeted by Chinese authorities.

Notwithstanding these initiatives, Richardson argued, the reach of the CCP’s repression may be much larger than conventionally assumed. Understanding the transnational scope of its repression is key to any effort to devise mechanisms to combat it. 

A prime example is the threat that the CCP continues to pose to democratic elections in other countries. Richardson cited efforts by the CCP to ensure that officials friendly to Xi’s government are elected. Threats of censorship, surveillance, harassment, and physical violence against Chinese students abroad have hampered academic freedom in democracies. Regime actors also threaten the UN human rights system, blocking unwanted scrutiny of the CCP’s human rights transgressions.

High-profile individuals with relatives in China remain vulnerable, as authorities can retaliate against their family members if they voice critical views.

As the scope of Xi’s influence becomes more evident, the question remains: Why have democracies failed to contain it? Richardson believes they are in denial of the overall trajectory, choosing to prioritize other interests at the expense of human rights. Their inability to coordinate in the long term presents an additional challenge. Finally, many democracies have dismissed anti-democratic threats posed by the CCP on grounds that they are idiosyncratic and unworthy of a broader response.

Richardson underscored the importance of greater precision in characterizing the threats posed by the Chinese government to democracy and the imperative to build an international commitment to protecting human rights in China.

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Sophie Richardson, CDDRL Visiting Scholar, 2024
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Sophie Richardson, Expert on Human Rights in China, Joins CDDRL as Visiting Scholar

During her tenure at Stanford, Dr. Richardson will embark on individual research endeavors while focusing on completing her forthcoming book project, titled "Great Changes Unseen in a Century: How to Save Democracy and Human Rights from Xi Jinping."
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Josiah Ober presents during a CDDRL research seminar on February 22, 2024.
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The Civic Bargain and Democratic Survival

How do democracies arise, and what conditions promote their survival? In a CDDRL seminar series talk, Professor of Political Science and Classics Josiah Ober addressed this question, drawing on his latest book, “The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives” (Princeton University Press), co-authored with Brook Manville.
cover link The Civic Bargain and Democratic Survival
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Why have democracies failed in curtailing Xi Jinping’s human rights abuses? And how can they better insulate themselves from Beijing's transnational threats? CDDRL Visiting Scholar and former China Director at Human Rights Watch Sophie Richardson presented her research on the Chinese government’s deteriorating human rights record.

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Rachel Owens
Rachel Cody Owens
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How do democracies arise, and what conditions promote their survival? In a CDDRL seminar series talk, Professor of Political Science and Classics Josiah Ober addressed this question, drawing on his latest book, The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives (Princeton University Press), co-authored with Brook Manville. The book traces paths to democracy across four case studies: Athens, Rome, Great Britain, and the United States.

Ober defines democracy as collective self-governance by a large, socially diverse, and self-authorized body of citizens. This definition does not require liberalism, allowing for analytical separation between the basic characteristics of a democracy and possible additive attributes. 

Ober argued that democracies today are experiencing what he characterized as a Schmittian moment. They operate under “the friend-enemy relation.” In other words, political actions and motives are reduced to distinguishing “friend” or “enemy.” Under this model, called “political theology” by the German jurist and political theorist Carl Schmitt, partisans assign the mark of “good” or “evil” to differing perspectives. Thus, political contests have become increasingly high stakes. All in all, politics is seen as a zero-sum game.

In stark contrast to the zero-sum state prevalent in many contemporary democracies, Ober argued that democracies all began with a civic bargain. For instance, in his final Constitutional Convention speech, Benjamin Franklin acknowledged that there were several parts of the Constitution of which he did not approve and that he accepted the Constitution since it was the best option offered. 

Democracies, Ober argues, have civic bargaining at their core and follow seven essential conditions. They have no boss, as the scope of the executive is limited. They are able to provide for their country's basic security and welfare. There are defined citizenship and citizen-led institutions. Negotiations are made in good faith, building off civic friendship and the recognition of other actors as part of a common enterprise. Finally, they are all based in a civically educated citizenry. 

In addition to establishing the necessary conditions for a democracy, Ober made a series of observations about their nature across case studies. 

Athens, Rome, and the U.S. all developed into powerful and wealthy societies without turning over authority to an all-powerful ruler, suggesting that keeping security and welfare does not require a guardian. The structures of Athens and Rome also suggest that republics and democracies are compatible and that organized political parties are not essential features of a democracy. 

Democracies, however, require respect for fundamental rights and citizens’ defense of these rights. In many cases, the negotiation of rights comes via political bargains between the elites and non-elite citizens. 

According to Ober, scale is both democracy's greatest challenge and greatest opportunity. It is an opportunity to the extent that it provides a diverse skill set that could increase security and welfare. Scale is a challenge because it brings about diverging interests, thereby making good-faith bargaining more difficult to achieve. 

In distilling both the core features of democracy throughout history and the challenges contemporary democracies face in upholding them, Ober highlights that what is missing today is respectful civic bargaining. Thus, a stronger base of civic education is a central element of any solution.

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Vicky Fouka
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National Stigmas and Past Atrocities in Germany

Stanford Associate Professor of Political Science Vicky Fouka shares her research on how public recognition of collective culpability has affected German national identity.
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Şener Aktürk presents his research during a CDDRL research seminar
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When Do Religious Minority Politicians Secure High Political Offices?

Şener Aktürk presented his research on the subject in a recent CDDRL research seminar series talk.
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Miriam Golden presents during a CDDRL research seminar
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Civil Service Reform and Reelection Rates in the United States

Miriam Golden argues that a decline in patronage appointments to state bureaucracies due to civil service legislation increased reelection rates in state legislatures.
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How do democracies arise, and what conditions promote their survival? In a CDDRL seminar series talk, Professor of Political Science and Classics Josiah Ober addressed this question, drawing on his latest book, “The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives” (Princeton University Press), co-authored with Brook Manville.

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