Israel Fellows
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Speaker: Haviv Rettig Gur, senior analyst for The Times of Israel 

2023 will be remembered as Israel’s year of horrors. It began with deep societal polarization, mass protests, and anxiety about the future of Israeli democracy, following the new Netanyahu government’s plan to weaken judicial independence. It ended with the most devastating terrorist attack in Israel’s history and a war that is now being fought on multiple fronts. In this webinar, Amichai Magen, FSI's visiting fellow in Israel Studies, will be joined by one of Israel’s leading analysts, Haviv Rettig Gur, to take stock of 2023 and seek to ascertain what awaits Israel in 2024.

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A veteran Israeli-American journalist and analyst, Haviv Rettig Gur serves as The Times of Israel’s Senior Analyst. He has reported from over 20 countries and served as director of communications for the Jewish Agency for Israel, Israel’s largest NGO. Haviv lectures on Israeli politics, the U.S.-Israel relationship, the peace process, modern Jewish history and identity, and Israel-diaspora relations.
 

Haviv Rettig Gur

Haviv Rettig Gur

Senior Analyst at the Times of Israel
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During the 2024 winter quarter (January-March) FSI's Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program is hosting a series of webinars exploring various aspects of contemporary Israeli politics, societal and security challenges. Webinars will take place on Wednesdays, 10:00-11:15am PST (20:00-21:15pm, Israel Time). Each webinar will feature a guest speaker from Israel or the U.S. and will include a lecture or moderated conversation with the guest, followed by a Q&A with the audience.

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As part of on ongoing effort by the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) to provide research-based programming on the current situation in the Middle East, Scott Sagan and Allen Weiner joined moderator Janine Zacharia at an event co-sponsored with the Stanford Law School to discuss the legal framework of war and how the current conflict in Gaza fits into those precepts.

Scott Sagan is senior fellow at FSI and co-director of the institute’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. Allen Weiner, an FSI affiliate, is a senior lecturer in law and director of the Stanford Program in International Law at Stanford Law School, and a former legal counselor at the U.S. Embassy in The Hague. Janine Zacharia is a lecturer in the Department of Communication.

Their discussion took place  before a Stanford student audience.



Conduct in Conflict


To understand how the principles of just war theory are relevant  today, Dr. Sagan began by outlining what they are and where they came from.

Principles governing honorable and dishonorable conduct in conflict have ancient origins, but the most comprehensive foundations of the law of armed conflict, or international humanitarian law, originate from the four Geneva Conventions concluded in the years following WWII and the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, with atomic weapons. Beginning in 1949, these conventions provided an important set of agreements governing the rules of war. In the 1977 Additional Protocols, these agreements were developed and expanded on in greater detail to create the framework recognized internationally today.

However, as Sagan noted, neither Israel nor the United States is party to the Additional Protocols of the 1977 Geneva Convention.  Nevertheless, both countries accept that some of the foundational principles codified on the Protocols constitute customary international law, and are thus legally binding on them.
 

Key Principles of the Laws of War


In their discussion, Sagan and Weiner focused on three principles in particular: the principle of distinction, the principle of proportionality, and the principle of precaution. As defined by Sagan, they state the following:

Principle of Distinction — Only military targets are permissible in conflict; civilians and civilian targets are not permitted. It is left up to warring parties to determine what constitutes each one. 

Principle of Proportionality — Collateral damage will occur in war, even if civilians are not targeted. Therefore, militaries must weigh the advantage of attacking a particular target compared to the harm that it will do to civilians. Attacking a military target of high importance, even if it entails the risk of harming many civilians, might be acceptable, but attacking a target of low-importance with high potential for collateral damage is unacceptable.

Principle of Precaution — Military commanders must take precautions to limit the amount of civilian damage while pursuing targets.

Expanding on that, Weiner also reminded the audience of what the principles of armed conflict are not:

“The laws of war are not the same as human rights law,” he emphasized. “They recognize the existence of war. They recognize that armies are going to engage in killing and destruction. International humanitarian law is designed to minimize the worst suffering that war causes.”
 

The Laws of War in Practice


While these principles provide a general framework, applying them to the specific case of Israel and Hamas is legally complex.

“There is a lot of flexibility and discretion in the application of these laws,” Weiner explained.

The status of Gaza adds another layer of complication. As a sui generis entity, it falls into a gray zone of independent legal classification. Originally part of the Palestinian Mandate, after the Arab-Israeli 1948 war, it was controlled by Egypt until 1967. Israel took control of the territory at the end of the 1967 Six-Day War.  Around the time of 1979 Camp David Accords, Anwar Sadat relinquished any territorial claims Egypt might have to the territory.  Israel withdrew its military forces and citizens from the Gaza Strip in 2005, and since 2007 the territory has been governed by Hamas, which is not the recognized government of Palestine, whose status as a state is likewise contested on the geopolitical stage.

“All of these issues create incredibly complex issues regarding which bodies of law apply to Gaza,” says Weiner.

Beyond the contestation about what legal rules apply to this conflict between Israel and Hamas, and how they should be interpreted, another confounding issue in analyzing the application of laws governing the use of force is the scarcity of reliable, clear facts about what is or is not happening in Gaza. As other Stanford scholars have reported, misinformation about the Israel-Hamas war has been rampant, further fueling animosity and anger both on the ground and online.

Speaking to this, Weiner acknowledged, “I am not able to ascertain with confidence what the facts are around many actions taking place on the ground. And that makes commenting as an outsider about the application of the laws of war in this situation extremely difficult and fraught. We have to be modest and we have to be humble about this.”
 

Questions of Scale


Because many key facts regarding what has and is happening on the ground in Gaza remain unclear, Sagan and Weiner refrained from offering definitive opinions on if or how the rules of war are being violated.

Both scholars agreed that Israel’s goal of eradicating Hamas as the governing entity in Gaza as a response to the attacks on October 7 was a legitimate goal. But each was quick to caution that legitimacy alone is not always the best guiding principle in cases of conflict.

“We need to recognize that there can be acts which are lawful, but awful,” Sagan reminded the audience. “The aims may be legitimate, but if in pursuing those aims you are creating more terrorists than you are killing, the aim you had may have been lawful in terms of its scope, but awful in terms of its consequences.” 

Weiner returned to the principle of jus ad bellum proportionality in thinking about the consequences of scale in responding to an attack such as the one conducted by Hamas on October 7. That principle is different from the jus in bello concept of proportionality, which requires the military advantages of a particular action to be weighed against civilian harms. Under jus ad bellum proportionality, there is also the need to weigh whether the overall scope of a military campaign is proportional to the cause that triggered the response.

But, Weiner cautioned, the jus ad bellum proportionality test “is among the most notoriously fuzzy and ambiguous standards that is used.”  

Looking specifically at Gaza, Weiner continued, “I stipulate that destroying Hamas is a legitimate war aim for Israel under these circumstances. But if you can’t do that without causing excessive damage, I do wonder whether the goal of the state in resorting to war has become greater than the harm it is causing.”
 

Beyond Revenge


While laws and legal precedent may provide a type of formal structure for conduct in conflict, Sagan and Weiner also acknowledged the very impactful role that emotion and human impulses play in how the spirit of those structures are interpreted. 

Speaking to data he and colleagues have collected on the relationship between identity, nationalism, and the ethics of war, Sagan admitted that, “I am concerned that in this conflict and others, the desire for vengeance can easily cloud judgements about what is right and what is wrong.” 

Reflecting on his own experiences, Weiner offered this consideration:

“Having lived through the American response to 9/11, I felt that because there was so much demand for retribution and for vengeance, something about our norms and values and practices changed in the United States. And, clouded by that sense of vengeance, I think after 9/11 the United States made a series of decisions that turned out to be very bad decisions from a national security standpoint and a humanitarian standpoint. And I do worry that the same might be true in Israel, particularly in respect to the scope of the war aims that it is setting.”

As the conflict continues and more information becomes available, Sagan encouraged those in attendance to be judicious and open in their thinking and analysis, even — and particularly — when that may be uncomfortable.

“In cases like the one we are witnessing now, we have to be very strict about what are facts and what are values. We have rights to our own values and our own interpretations. But we don’t have rights to our own facts,” said Sagan.

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At Reunion Homecoming, FSI Scholars Offer Five Policy Recommendations for the Biden Administration

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Scott Sagan and Allen Weiner discuss the laws of armed conflict and principles of just war theory in the context of the war currently being waged in Israel and the Gaza Strip at an event moderated by Janine Zacharia at the Stanford Law School.
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Scott Sagan and Allen Weiner explain the principles that govern the laws of armed conflict and the current war between Israel and Hamas.

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If you had five minutes to speak with the president of the United States, what would you say? That’s the question Michael McFaul, director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, posed to FSI scholars at a Stanford 2023 Reunion Homecoming event.

The discussion, “Global Threats Today: What's At Stake and What We Can Do About It,” centered around five major challenges currently facing the world: political dissatisfaction and disillusionment at home, tensions between China and Taiwan, the consequences of climate change, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, and the conflict between Hamas and Israel.

Speaking to each of these areas of concern and how they overlap, FSI scholars Didi Kuo, Larry Diamond, Marshall Burke, Michael McFaul, and Amichai Magen offered their perspectives on what can be done. You can listen to their full conversation on the World Class podcast and browse highlights from their policy ideas below.

Follow the link for a full transcript of "Global Threats: What's at Stake and What We Can Do About It."


Reform the Electoral College |  Didi Kuo


One of the major problems people feel right now in American politics is that their voices aren’t heard. We live in what my colleague Francis Fukuyama calls a "vetocracy," meaning there are a lot of veto points in our system.

In a lot of other democratic institutional configurations, you have rule by the majority. But in the United States, we have an institutional configuration that allows a very small group — for example, 15 people in the House of Representatives — to hold up government in various ways. We see this in dramatic examples on the national level, but it also trickles down to the local level where you see it in issues like permitting hold-ups.

Reforming the Electoral College would be a very direct way of changing that vetocracy. The United States is one of the only advanced democracies that has this indirect system of elections. If all the votes counted equally and all the presidential candidates had to treat all of us the same and respond to us equally in all 50 states, it would do a lot to show the power of the popular vote and realign us more closely to the principle of majoritarianism that we should seek in our institutions.

Didi Kuo

Didi Kuo

Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute
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Allow Taiwan to License Weapons Production |  Larry Diamond


My recommendation is deterrence, deterrence, deterrence. It is not inevitable that the People's Republic of China is going to launch an all-out military assault on Taiwan. But if the United States does not do more to make that a costly decision, the likelihood it will happen are exponentially higher.

Deterrence works. The United States deterred the Soviet Union from moving against West Berlin and much of Europe for decades. But it only works if you have a superior force.

To that end, the United States needs to pre-position more military force in the region. There's now a $12 billion backlog of weapons that Taiwan has ordered and paid for but hasn't received yet. That’s because the American defense production system is completely broken. This is the same reason why we can’t get weapons to Ukraine at the pace we need there.

This issue could be fixed, at least in part, if we licensed the production of some of these weapon systems directly to Taiwan. Their ability to build plants and produce these systems is much more agile than our own, and so licensing the rights to production would dramatically increase the deterrence factor against China, in addition to deepening our cooperation with allies throughout the region.

Professor Larry Diamond

Larry Diamond

Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at FSI
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Pursue Climate Mitigation AND Adaptation |  Marshall Burke


There are three things we can do in response to climate change: we can mitigate, we can adapt, or we can suffer. We’re off to a good start, but we have decades of long slog ahead of us to get that right. And it's not just us; even if we do a good job, we depend on other countries to also do a good job. The Biden administration has already been engaged on some of that front, but there’s more work to do there.

And even with our best efforts, we are not going to be able to move as fast as we want or mitigate our greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as we need to avoid climate change. So, we're going to have to live with some climate change, which means adaptation. And if we can't adapt, then we're going to suffer. 

The key point is that we are very poorly adapted to today's climate, much less the climate we're going to have 30 or 50 years from now. The West Coast and California are prime examples of this. There have been monumental wildfire seasons there the last few years, and there are significant negative health impacts from smoke exposure. I see it in my own home, even as someone who studies this and should know better and do more to reduce those risks.

The point is, we're really poorly adapted to the current climate, and things are going to get a lot worse. We need to focus on mitigation; it’s still really important and we need to get it done. But at the same time, we need to figure out how to adapt and live with the changing climate that we're going to experience.

Marshall Burke

Marshall Burke

Deputy Director of the Center on Food Security and the Environment
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Weapons for Ukraine, Sanctions on Russia |  Michael McFaul


When I was in Kyiv this September, I had a chance to meet with President Zelenskyy, and he pointed out an absolutely crazy reality. Companies in the United States and Europe are still making tens of thousands of dollars in profits from selling various technologies that ultimately end up in Russia. It’s getting in through places like Hong Kong and Kazakhstan and Belarus and Georgia, and it allows Russia to keep waging its horrific war.

At the same time, the United States is spending millions of dollars to arm Ukraine with systems to shoot down the Russian rockets that were built using the components they got from the West. That’s completely illogical, bad policy. I know it’s hard to control technology, but we have to find a better way than what we’re doing right now. If you're an American taxpayer, that is your money being wasted.

That means more and better weapons for Ukraine, faster. And that means more and better sanctions on Russia, faster. That is the way to speed the end of this war.

Michael McFaul

Michael McFaul

Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute
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Be Confident in America |  Amichai Magen


Just a few short years ago, we were all talking about the decline of the United States. I think that is far from inevitable. People speak about the 20th century as the “American Century.” The 21st century can also be the American Century. It's in our hands.

Be bullish on America. Be confident in America. Rediscover the spirit of America for adaptation and innovation and entrepreneurship. We need to wake up from the break we’ve taken from history in the post-Cold War era and rally once again in our spirit, our research, and our intellect.

We need to find new solution structures to the great challenges of our era: environmental challenges, AI, biotechnological challenges, nuclear challenges. And we can do it. China is on the verge of demographic decline and economic decline. Russia is a very dangerous international actor, but it is not a global superpower. We must reinvent the institutions and the alliances that we need for the 21st century in order to make sure that we continue a journey towards greater peace and prosperity for all of mankind.

Amichai Magen

Amichai Magen

Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies at the Freeman Spogli Institute
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The entire discussion, including the audience Q&A, is available to watch on FSI's YouTube channel. To stay up to date on our content, be sure to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications.

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FSI scholars offer their thoughts on what can be done to address political polarization in the United States, tensions between Taiwan and China, climate change, the war in Ukraine, and the Israel-Hamas war.

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We have been living a nightmare since Oct. 7. In Israel and across the world, Jews and their true friends are suffering terribly. We are engulfed in a toxic cloud of horror, trauma, grief, incredulity, anger, fear, shame and, yes, a sense of abandonment.

Many, if not most, of us know someone whose loved ones were murdered, maimed or kidnapped. The survivors — our families, friends and students — are numb with pain and anxiety.

How could this have happened in Israel, a country that was created to ensure that something like this could never happen? How do I keep my family and my community safe from Hamas’ calls for global jihad? How do we, as Jews, wake up from this nightmare and begin the long process of healing?

For me, a Jewish response to Oct. 7 can be captured in three words: rise, recover, reimagine.

READ THE FULL ARTICLE IN THE J. WEEKLY

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For me, a Jewish response to Oct. 7 can be captured in three words: rise, recover, reimagine.

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Scholars hosted by the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) on October 27 discussed the lessons of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and its relevance for understanding the current Israel-Hamas war.

The seminar, “1973 Yom Kippur War: Lessons to Remember,” was moderated by Larry Diamond, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at FSI who is also leading the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program at FSI. 

In his opening remarks, Diamond said, “Our hearts go out to the people of Israel and this struggle they have now in the wake of one of the most horrific terrorist attacks in anyone’s living memory, maybe the most horrific. And to all of the people in Israel and Gaza, who are innocent people who’ve lost their lives.”

Speakers included Or Rabinowitz of the International Relations Department of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a visiting associate professor at FSI’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC); Gil-li Vardi, a former visiting scholar at CISAC and Stanford history lecturer; Professor Emeritus Meron Medzini of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and former Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir’s spokesperson during 1973–1974; and Ron Hassner, the Chancellor’s Professor of Political Science and Helen Diller Family Chair in Israel Studies at UC Berkeley. 

Israel’s Nuclear Question

On October 6, 1973, an Arab alliance of Egyptian and Syrian forces launched a surprise attack on Israel on Yom Kippur – the Jewish holy day of atonement. The three-week conflict was one of the deadliest Arab-Israeli wars. It ended with an Israeli victory, shaping inter-state relations in the region for years to come.

Rabinowitz addressed the nuclear dimension of the Yom Kippur War, quoting Richard Nixon, who said in 1972, “The Israelis have nuclear weapons. I’m not going to tell you how I know, but I know that.”

She said a “partial picture” exists of Israel’s nuclear capabilities during the 1973 conflict, and more research needs to be done. Back then, Israel and the U.S. had reached an understanding about Israel’s “ambiguous nuclear posture,” as well as an agreement that any U.S.-made fighter jets would not be used to deploy nuclear weapons. Regarding nuclear-equipped missiles, “we have to take it into account that this was probably a political signaling which wasn’t backed by an actual ability to put in a nuclear warhead on the ballistic missile, but we just don’t know,” Rabinowitz said.

She added, “I am convinced that Golda Meir would have shown nuclear restraint, even if a bilateral understanding had not been in effect with the U.S. – because it made sense, there were moral clouds, and the Israeli objective was to align itself with the U.S. and guarantee further collaboration, and that would have just backfired.”

An Evolving Military Strategy

Vardi said the Yom Kippur War generated a huge incentive for the U.S. military and others to later develop the “AirLand Battle Doctrine,” which emphasizes close coordination between land forces acting as an aggressively maneuvering defense, and air forces attacking rear-echelon forces feeding those front-line enemy forces. 

“It also taught the military leadership in Israel that their instincts are the right ones, that they should always be on the offensive. If war is coming, then they should always be very active about it – active to the point of aggression,” she said.

As for Egypt, Vardi said, they weren’t planning an all-out war against Israel if they didn’t receive help from the Soviet Union or elsewhere, and their tactical goals were therefore limited.

She also noted Israel’s battle doctrine, which rests on three pillars – deterrence, intelligence, and military decision-making, as well as a defensive strategy to be executed offensively, by transferring the battle to enemy territory.

This doctrine failed on October 7 when Hamas attacked Israel, killing more than 1,400 people in Israeli territory. “Israeli security perceptions will need to change,” Vardi said.

If Hamas is removed from Gaza, something else needs to go and fill that gap.
Larry Diamond
Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at FSI

Confronting Hamas

On October 7, Medzini said, Israel was dealt its worst blow since 1948. “Totally unprepared, wrong intelligence, the army in disarray, leadership, very poor response. And, parts of proper Israel were occupied by Palestinians with a huge number of casualties.”

He said, “The entire country was stunned. How could this happen to us?”

The Yom Kippur War was totally different than today’s conflict between Israel and Hamas, Medzini said. In 1973 it was launched by mostly secular governments in Egypt and Syria, whereas Hamas is a religious organization. 

“We thought in terms of Western thinking or Arab thinking. We did not take into account that Hamas is a religious organization. If you read their covenant, if you look at the logo, it’s not only to destroy the Jews of Israel, it’s to destroy the Jews” everywhere, Medzini said. 

Hassner said Israel’s opponents erred during the Yom Kippur War by believing the Israelis would be unable to mobilize quickly. 

“Mobilization turned out to be very easy,” he said, “because everybody was in the same place. Everybody was in the synagogue. And so, unit commanders just went to the nearest synagogues and told all the young men to come out. The roads were empty, which the Egyptians seemed to be unaware of. Mobilization to the front may have happened at twice the speed at which the Israeli military had planned to mobilize, because nobody else was on the road.”

Also, Hassner said, a backlash effect can exist if one is attempting to exploit their opponents’ religious holiday – “you are going to unleash a certain amount of religiously motivated anger.”

Regarding Israel’s security situation today, Rabinowitz said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies reflect a deep miscalculation of Hamas since the terror group rose to power in 2007 in the Gaza Strip. After Netanyahu took office in 2009, “he went on the record saying that his main mission is to strengthen Hamas” by favoring it over other Palestinian groups.

Medzini said Israel has to conduct a major operation in Gaza to make sure that Hamas loses its military and political capabilities. “You can’t kill an ideology. You can’t kill a religion. But you can certainly destroy a military capability and capacity,” he said. But, Medzini also noted, “Where do we go from here? What’s the end game?”

Diamond spoke of reigniting the peace process and bringing back the two-state solution in a very actual manner. “I’ll note what I think everybody in the room knows that if Hamas is removed from Gaza, something else needs to go and fill that gap.”

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Scholars of Israel and the Middle East discussed the strategic takeaways of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and their relevance to the region’s current security crisis.

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Scholars from the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies discussed the global and regional implications of Hamas’ terror attack during a webinar on October 13, 2023.

Larry Diamond, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at FSI and William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, moderated the conversation. Speakers included Abbas Milani, the Hamid and Christina Moghadam Director of Iranian Studies; Ori Rabinowitz of the International Relations Department of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a visiting associate professor at FSI’s Center for International Security and Cooperation; and Amichai Magen, of the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy, Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel, and the inaugural visiting fellow in Israel Studies at FSI. 

Israel declared war against Hamas after the terrorist group infiltrated the country on October 7, firing thousands of rockets at residential areas, killing civilians, and inflicting the most lethal attack on Israel since its founding in 1948.

Diamond said, “The brutal October 7 attacks on innocent Israeli civilians by the terrorist group Hamas constitute one of the most appalling incidents of terrorism in our lifetimes.” He noted that for a smaller country the size of Israel, when compared to the U.S., their death toll of 1,200 that weekend is equivalent to more than 40,000 Americans – or more than 10 times the U.S. death toll on 9/11.

Impact on Israelis

Rabinowitz said Israelis have been deeply affected by Hamas’ atrocities. “It’s trauma being compounded by failure of the Israeli state and the army institution to respond immediately to all levels of this. It really brought to the surface images of the Holocaust.” 

However, she said, Israeli civil society is strong and resilient, and it’s taking on the role of providing what the government's institutions and leadership should have provided more quickly after the attacks. “Soldiers called up for duty were driven to the front by their parents and by family friends,” for example, she said.

Magen said Hamas’ attacks shattered three fundamental myths for Israelis. One involved the notion that Israel could coexist with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The second illusion that broke was the belief that the government of Israel and the Israeli Defense Forces could effectively protect the civilian population.

“The reason why this is a much bigger trauma than Yom Kippur (in 1973) is because on Yom Kippur there was a very high military death toll, but the civilian population was protected,” Magen said. "However, this time, thousands of Israeli civilians were massacred before the Israeli state could even respond."

The third illusion, Magen said, was the belief that global jihad was non-existent in today’s world. “This is a cautionary tale – sometimes Israel is the canary in the coal mine. What happens in Israel today may tragically happen in the United States or elsewhere.”

Iran and Regional Implications

Milani noted the speculation about whether Iran ordered the attacks, but said that misses the larger picture. “Iran created Hamas in this sense. Iran is the architect of the narrative” that the future of the Middle East must not include Israel.

He said the only solution for lasting peace in the region is a two-state solution (with a Palestinian state) and an Iran with a democratic government. But extremists are in power in all the involved countries and now this outcome is even more difficult, said Milani. “Iran has been adamant in undermining the two-state solution.”

Milani also said the Hamas incursions should end the illusion shared by some in the West that you can make enough concessions to the Iranian regime and it will change its support for terrorism. 

“This regime is not going to abide by laws, it is not going to abide by its commitments. It is murderously suppressing the Iranian people,” he said.

Iran, Milani believes, sees the Hamas attacks as a major turning point in its bid for regional supremacy and the demise of Israel. It wants to undermine the delicate normalization talks between Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. With Iranian-backed Hezbollah aiming more than 150,000 rockets at Israel, Iran is maneuvering for possibly a broader conflict and chaos that could see Israel confronting several fronts.

Milani added that his heart goes out to all the victims and the hostages of this ordeal, noting that the 2 million-plus citizens of Gaza are also hostages to this catastrophe. “Human beings should be considered as hostages in this brutal regime (Hamas).” Their lives should be protected as well, and this would be best for the future of the Middle East and for the future of Israel.

Factors Leading to Attacks

Rabinowitz said scholars in the future will need to examine how the more radical factions in the Middle East realigned and created such a situation, she said. 

Magen said Israel was too complacent in regard to their technologically-enhanced security systems, rife with domestic political polarization, and naïve that a deal could be struck with Hamas.

“Israel was clearly perceived to be vulnerable and divided internally, and the enemy pounced. We in Israel tend to think that we watch very carefully what is happening in the neighborhood, but the neighborhood also watches us,” he said.

With Iran nearing the nuclear threshold for a weapon of mass destruction, the West needs to be incredibly aware of this possibility, Magen said. 

Campus Conversations

Diamond and the scholars emphasized the need for civil dialogue and safe spaces for conversations on college campuses about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Rabinowitz said the Stanford community is well-positioned to achieve this. 

She said, “We’re not in Israel and Gaza, and we can use this opportunity to foster more dialogue between the different groups, between different students, and I think that is part of our jobs.”

Magen said, “We must create constructive spaces for empathic and sympathetic analysis, conversation, and engagement. We need to talk about difficult issues – we live in a difficult world.” 

The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies produced the webinar, “The Hamas Terrorist Attack on Israel and its Implications for the Middle East,” in cooperation with the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program, where Professors Magen and Rabinowitz are visiting scholars. The program was launched in September 2021 with the aim of deepening FSI’s academic expertise in geopolitics and democracy studies as it relates to Israel.

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Family and friends of May Naim, 24, who was murdered by Palestinians militants at the "Supernova" festival, near the Israeli border with Gaza strip, react during her funeral on October 11, 2023 in Gan Haim, Israel. (Getty Images)
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Larry Diamond moderated a discussion between Ori Rabinowitz, Amichai Magen and Abbas Milani on the effects of Hamas’ attacks on Israel and what the emerging conflict means for Israel and Middle Eastern geopolitics.

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Amichai Magen
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At approximately 6:30am on October 7th—on the holy sabbath of Shemini Atzeret, the eighth and final day of the Jewish holiday of Sukkot—air raid sirens went off all across Israel. Before the day was done, more than 3,000 rockets, missiles, and mortar shells were fired by Hamas, as well as Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), from Gaza into Israel. As with all recent attacks, the barrages were fired from within densely populated Palestinian civilian areas into densely populated civilian areas inside Israel, constituting a double war crime.

But this time things were different. This time the salvos of rocket fire—as intensive, indiscriminate, and far-ranging as they undoubtedly were—were not the attack itself. They were primarily a diversion meant to obfuscate, and provide cover for, a Hamas invasion, slaughter, and kidnapping operation.

Read the full article in "Persuasion."

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October 7th was a catastrophe for Israel’s people—and its government.

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Melissa Morgan
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Since the beginning of 2023, many citizens in Israel have taken part in a weekly ritual: street protests.

Most of the demonstrations are aimed at proposals from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s administration to reform aspects of Israel’s judicial system, including reducing certain powers held by the Supreme Court to check the power of Israel’s legislative body, the Knesset.

After months of sustained opposition, it appeared that the most controversial proposals would be dropped. In March, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a pause on the judicial overhaul plan, citing intentions to seek a compromise with dissenting members of the legislature. But in late July, a vote in the Knesset successfully passed a bill which removes the Supreme Court’s ability to invoke the “reasonableness clause,” or a legal tool by which the court can reject decisions or appointments made by the government if they fail to meet a standard of reasonable precedent and function.

This move has set off alarm bells both inside and outside of Israel. The only well-established, functioning democracy in the Middle East, many fear that the country may be heading toward a constitutional crisis.

To offer context on the current situation and its implication both for Israel and the broader geopolitical community, Amichai Magen, the inaugural Visiting Fellow in the Israel Visiting Fellows Program at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, joined Michael McFaul on the World Class podcast

In their conversation, Magen explains some of the cultural and political reasons that led Israel to this point, and offers his analysis of how Israel might move forward.

Listen to the full episode above, or browse highlights from their conversation below. Click here for a transcript of "Understanding Israel's Democracy."



The Paradox of Israeli Democracy


At the heart of the current crisis, says Magen, are unresolved tensions in Israel’s identity as a democratic nation. It has been a democracy since its recognition as an independent state in 1948, and in its 75 years as a nation, pulled off nothing less than a miracle of growth, development, and economic success. In 2022, it was the fastest growing country of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations and entered the top 20 ranking of countries with the highest GDP per capita. Outside of strictly economic statistics, it was also listed as the fourth happiest country on earth, falling in line behind Finland, Denmark and Iceland.

“This is a country that came from very inauspicious circumstances and has not only survived, but thrived as an open and pluralistic society,” Magen told McFaul. “If you and I looked at Israel this time last year, we would be in awe of this country.”

However, there have always been vulnerabilities brewing under the surface of this great success.

Israel has done pretty well by fudging those issues and focusing on mundane bread-and-butter political issues. But we find ourselves confronting a coalition government that today wants to take Israel down a different path.
Amichai Magen
Visiting Scholar

Israel notably lacks a formal, written constitution, and has long relied on what Magen references as “norms and mores” in order to keep the work of government in line with accepted precedent. He explains further:

“Israel has decided not to decide on some of the critical questions that are normally settled in constitutional conventions. We don't have formal rules on separation of church and state. We decided not to decide on whether the ultra-orthodox in Israel should serve in the army or not serve in the army. We decided not to decide what should be the relationship between the Jewish majority and the Arab Israeli minority that makes up 20% of the Israeli population.

“And Israel has done pretty well by fudging those issues, by not bringing them to the fore, and by essentially trying to focus on mundane bread-and-butter political issues. But we find ourselves confronting a coalition government that today wants to take Israel down a different path.” 
 

Learning from the Current Crisis


In the short-term, Magen does not see a short-term fix for the current situation as long as the Netanyahu government remains entrenched. Speaking about the situation in a recent BBC interview, he expressed his fears that the situation “has reached a point where Netanyahu's personal political fortunes are being put ahead of everything else in Israel."

But there are signs of what may lay ahead. Current polling in Israel shows that if national elections were held now, the Netanyahu administration would lose. And the ongoing protests , now nearly eight months long, show the commitment of the demonstrators.

Magen hopes that this current crisis will be a springboard for Israel to finally address some of the issues it has “decided not to decide.” While a singular, decisive constitutional convention would be satisfying, Magen imagines these changes will most likely come as a series of decisions over time.

“At the very least, we need to set in place the procedural rules of the game to make sure that we have stronger guardrails around how we’re going to conduct our national politics,” he explained.

Continuing, he said, “It might happen in one grand bargain, but I think more realistically, we will see a series of incremental changes of finer grained reforms that will try to put in place those guardrails. I think there's going to be quite a lot of pressure for Israelis to move in that direction, and that is the space to watch over the coming months and years.”
 

International Implications


Magen says another important lesson Israel’s current situation has to offer is a comparative lens for other democracies around the world suffering from similar polarization.

“This is not unique to Israel. We've seen something similar happening in places like Holland, Sweden, and Germany. There's something in the air that is driving mistrust and polarization and a collapse in public trust in elected authorities all around the world. And that is something we need to do a better job at understanding,” Magen emphasizes.

Just as authoritarians and populists have their international networks and circles, we really need to strengthen the circles and the networks of support for democracy all around the world.
Amichai Magen
Visiting Scholar in Israel Studies

The implications of Israel’s importance as a democratic cornerstone in the Middle East also shouldn’t be underestimated, says Magen.

“We've managed to make tremendous progress in Middle Eastern peace based on the understanding that Israel's neighbors have that Israel is a powerful, cohesive, and coherent international actor. If that is undermined, then we could find ourselves in a much more precarious regional and international environment with very serious consequences for energy markets and for stability in the Middle East and Europe and beyond,” he warns.

Magen explains that it is critical in this moment for the people of Israel to know that their efforts to protect and preserve democracy in their country is recognized by fellow democrats around the world.

“This is a time when the people of Israel — not only the Israeli government — really need to hear from their friends around the world, including, and I would say first and foremost, in the United States,” says Magen.

It’s a principle that’s applicable not only to the current situation in Israel, but to the global democratic community as a whole, he explains. 

“Just as authoritarians and populists have their international networks and circles, we really need to strengthen the circles and the networks of support for democracy all around the world, including for Israeli democracy,” Magen urges. “And we'd better do it earlier rather than later.”

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Law and governance expert Amichai Magen joins FSI Director Michael McFaul on the World Class podcast to discuss the judicial reforms recently passed by Israel’s legislature, and the implications these have for democracy in Israel and beyond.

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One of the newest initiatives at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) is the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program, which aims to deepen FSI’s academic expertise in geopolitics and democracy studies as it relates to Israel.

The program was launched in September 2021 with the generous support of Stanford alumni and donors and under the leadership  of Larry Diamond, FSI’s Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy. 

In the Fall quarter, the program welcomed Professor Or Rabinowitz, a senior lecturer in International Relations at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, as a visiting scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). Prof. Rabinowitz is a nuclear historian who has worked on issues relating to nuclear proliferation, intelligence studies, and Israel-US relations.

In Spring quarter, the program’s Inaugural Fellow, Professor Amichai Magen arrived at Stanford. Prof. Magen is a former predoctoral fellow and affiliated scholar at FSI’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law and current Director of the Program on Democratic Resilience and Development at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at Reichman University in Israel.

Few countries in the world have captured the American imagination, or receive international attention, as much as Israel. At the same time, few countries are as poorly understood
Amichai Magen
Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies

The inception of the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program comes at a particularly relevant time in Israel’s development as a nation. Over the course of its 75 years as an independent country, Israel has undergone a remarkable transformation into a state boasting a highly developed, globally integrated economy with an estimated GDP of US $488.53 billion in 2021, and a ranking as the fourth happiest country in the world in 2023 by the metrics of the World Happiness Report (WHR).

But many challenges still remain. The recent proposals by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to overhaul the judicial system to allow a simple parliamentary majority to overrule decisions by Israel’s Supreme Court, limit its jurisdiction, and give the government additional power in appointing judges has raised fears of democratic backsliding and a constitutional crisis for the country and the potential for instability in the region.

While the proposals were formally withdrawn by Netanyahu on March 27 after hundreds of thousands of Israeli citizens — by some estimates up to half of million — took to the streets in protest, the attempted rewrite of the law has left many both inside and outside the country concerned about Israel’s future.

Speaking at the first official event of the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies, Prof. Or Rabinowitz addressed the gravity of current events.

“We’re in a historical moment in Israel,” she said. “I think it’s as dramatic as 1948 and 1967. I do think that the coming months will dictate the direction in which Israeli democracy will go for years to come.”

The event, “Reflections on Israel at 75,” which marked Israel’s Independence Day on April 26, was a chance to reflect on the country’s successes and challenges through both academic lenses and personal stories.

Alongside Professors Magen, Rabinowitz, and moderator Larry Diamond, Yonatan Eyov, the current Jewish Agency Israel Fellow at Stanford University, offered some of his personal insights on the state of Israel’s society and current governance. As an openly gay Ethiopian Jew, Eyov acknowledged that while he deeply loves Israel and the opportunities it has given him, recent events have left him uneasy and hesitant at times to share his experiences with fellow Israelis.

“I think it’s necessary for us as people who live in Israel to understand that this is our country, and we need to do everything we can to protect it from these non-democratic influences,” he told the panel. “We have to be the ones to set the tone for those who would try to come and change things.”

Eyov’s experiences highlight the diversity of modern Israel, and the multidimensional nature of Israeli society, a topic which was also highlighted by the screening the Visiting Fellows program hosted on May 10 of Cinema Sabaya, a film by Orit Fouks Rotem.

The premise of the film was inspired by Rotem’s lived experiences in a multicultural, multi-ethnic Israel, and the growing pains — and joys — that come from the work of building community. 

Speaking at the screening via videolink, Matan Zamir, Deputy Consul General of Israel to the Pacific North West, reminded the audience that, “it is often in the arts, that we see a true spirit of a nation and its people represented.”

I do think that the coming months will dictate the direction in which Israeli democracy will go for years to come.
Or Rabinowitz
Visiting Scholar at CISAC

Speaking in an interview with FSI, Amichai Magen echoed the need for thoughtful, cross-cultural, cross-disciplinary analysis of Israel and its role as a regional influence and geopolitical partner.

“Few countries in the world have captured the American imagination, or receive international attention, as much as Israel. At the same time, few countries are as poorly understood. Whether for reasons of geographical or cultural distance, Israel's rapid transformation into a high-tech superpower over the past three decades, or competing political and media agendas, this intriguing and surprisingly influential country is rarely explored for what it is - a human society, polity, constitutional system, and policy actor that is best understood in historical and comparative context.”

As part of the Freeman Spogli Institute’s interdisciplinary, highly collaborative community of scholars, the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program will have the chance to develop and anchor dialogue about Israel within the broader ecosystem of FSI’s data-driven, research-based policy work and teaching.

For additional information about the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies and how to be involved, please contact program manager Aleeza Schoenberg.

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Larry Diamond, Or Rabinowitz, Yonatan Eyov, and Amichai Magen in discussion in the Bechtel Conference Center at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.
Larry Diamond, Or Rabinowitz, Yonatan Eyov, and Amichai Magen commemorated the 75th anniversary of Israel's independence with a discussion of the country's achievements and current challenges to its democratic nature.
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The program aims to foster cross-disciplinary analysis of Israel and its unique position as a regional influence and geopolitical actor.

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