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War and the Arab World: Regional Responses and Consequences

What does the U.S.–Israel war with Iran mean for the Arab world? How are Arab states responding, and what political, economic, and humanitarian consequences might emerge from a prolonged conflict?

The Program on Arab Reform and Development convenes a panel of scholars — Sean Yom, Lisa Blaydes, and Hesham Sallam — to examine the regional implications of the war, situating current developments within broader historical and geopolitical transformations shaping the region today.

SPEAKERS

Sean Yom

Sean Yom

Associate Professor of Political Science at Temple University and Senior Fellow at Democracy in the Arab World Now (DAWN)

Sean Yom is Associate Professor of Political Science at Temple University and Senior Fellow at Democracy in the Arab World Now (DAWN). His research explores the dynamics of authoritarian institutions, economic development, and US foreign policy in the Middle East, with a particular focus on Jordan, Morocco, and the Gulf. His most recent books include Jordan: Politics in an Accidental Crucible (Oxford University Press, 2025) and The Political Science of the Middle East: Theory and Research since the Arab Uprisings (co-edited with Marc Lynch and Jillian Schwedler; Oxford University Press, 2022).; Oxford University Press, 2022). He sits on the editorial board of the International Journal of Middle East Studies and the editorial committee of Middle East Report. He is also a former Stanford CDDRL Postdoctoral Fellow (2009-10). AB, Brown University (2003); PhD, Harvard University (2009).

Lisa Blaydes

Lisa Blaydes

Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Professor of Political Science, Stanford University
Lisa's full bio

Lisa Blaydes is a Professor of Political Science at Stanford University. She is the author of State of Repression: Iraq under Saddam Hussein (Princeton University Press, 2018) and Elections and Distributive Politics in Mubarak’s Egypt (Cambridge University Press, 2011). Professor Blaydes received the 2009 Gabriel Almond Award for best dissertation in the field of comparative politics from the American Political Science Association for this project.  Her articles have appeared in the American Political Science Review, International Studies Quarterly, International Organization, Journal of Theoretical Politics, Middle East Journal, and World Politics. During the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 academic years, Professor Blaydes was an Academy Scholar at the Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies. She holds degrees in Political Science (PhD) from the University of California, Los Angeles, and International Relations (BA, MA) from Johns Hopkins University.

Portrait of Hesham Sallam

Hesham Sallam

Senior Research Scholar and Associate Director for Research, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, Associate Director of the Program on Arab Reform and Development
Hesham's full bio

Hesham Sallam is a Senior Research Scholar at CDDRL, where he serves as Associate Director for Research. He is also Associate Director of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. Sallam is co-editor of Jadaliyya ezine and a former program specialist at the U.S. Institute of Peace. His research focuses on political and social development in the Arab World. Sallam’s research has previously received the support of the Social Science Research Council and the U.S. Institute of Peace. He is author of Classless Politics: Islamist Movements, the Left, and Authoritarian Legacies in Egypt (Columbia University Press, 2022), co-editor of Struggles for Political Change in the Arab World (University of Michigan Press, 2022), and editor of Egypt's Parliamentary Elections 2011-2012: A Critical Guide to a Changing Political Arena (Tadween Publishing, 2013). Sallam received a Ph.D. in Government (2015) and an M.A. in Arab Studies (2006) from Georgetown University, and a B.A. in Political Science from the University of Pittsburgh (2003).

Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to the William J. Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person.

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CDDRL Hewlett Fellow 2009-2010
YOM_webphoto.jpg PhD

Sean Yom finished his Ph.D. at the Department of Government at Harvard University in June 2009, with a dissertation entitled "Iron Fists in Silk Gloves: Building Political Regimes in the Middle East." His primary research explores the origins and durability of authoritarian regimes in this region. His work contends that initial social conflicts driven by strategic Western interventions shaped the social coalitions constructed by autocratic incumbents to consolidate power in the mid-twentieth century--early choices that ultimately shaped the institutional carapaces and political fates of these governments. While at CDDRL, he will revise the dissertation in preparation for book publication, with a focus on expanding the theory to cover other post-colonial regions and states. His other research interests encompass contemporary political reforms in the Arab world, the historical architecture of Persian Gulf security, and US democracy promotion in the Middle East. Recent publications include articles in the Journal of Democracy, Middle East Report, Arab Studies Quarterly, and Arab Studies Journal.

Sean Yom

Encina Hall West, Room 408
Stanford, CA 94305-6044

(650) 723-0649
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
James T. Watkins IV and Elise V. Watkins Professor
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Lisa Blaydes is a Professor of Political Science at Stanford University. She is the author of State of Repression: Iraq under Saddam Hussein (Princeton University Press, 2018) and Elections and Distributive Politics in Mubarak’s Egypt (Cambridge University Press, 2011). Professor Blaydes received the 2009 Gabriel Almond Award for best dissertation in the field of comparative politics from the American Political Science Association for this project.  Her articles have appeared in the American Political Science Review, International Studies Quarterly, International Organization, Journal of Theoretical Politics, Middle East Journal, and World Politics. During the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 academic years, Professor Blaydes was an Academy Scholar at the Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies. She holds degrees in Political Science (PhD) from the University of California, Los Angeles, and International Relations (BA, MA) from Johns Hopkins University.

 

Affiliated faculty at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Affiliated faculty at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
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Lisa Blaydes

Encina Hall, E105
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Hesham Sallam is a Senior Research Scholar at CDDRL, where he serves as Associate Director for Research. He is also Associate Director of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. Sallam is co-editor of Jadaliyya ezine and a former program specialist at the U.S. Institute of Peace. His research focuses on political and social development in the Arab World. Sallam’s research has previously received the support of the Social Science Research Council and the U.S. Institute of Peace. He is author of Classless Politics: Islamist Movements, the Left, and Authoritarian Legacies in Egypt (Columbia University Press, 2022), co-editor of Struggles for Political Change in the Arab World (University of Michigan Press, 2022), and editor of Egypt's Parliamentary Elections 2011-2012: A Critical Guide to a Changing Political Arena (Tadween Publishing, 2013). Sallam received a Ph.D. in Government (2015) and an M.A. in Arab Studies (2006) from Georgetown University, and a B.A. in Political Science from the University of Pittsburgh (2003).

 

Associate Director for Research, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Associate Director, Program on Arab Reform and Development
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Hesham Sallam
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This is the second of several articles—focusing on the 50-year history of SPICE—that will be posted this year. 

As noted in the article, “Celebrating SPICE’s 50th: SPICE’s Roots in the Bay Area China Education Project (BAYCEP),” that was written by Dr. David Grossman, founding director of SPICE, SPICE was established in 1976. Professor Daniel Okimoto joined Stanford in 1977, and I met him in 1988 when I joined SPICE. I had first heard of Professor Okimoto in fall 1972 during my freshman year in college. I read an excerpt, “The Intolerance of Success,” from his book, American in Disguise, that was reprinted in Roots: An Asian American Reader. During my first meeting with him, I learned that his family was incarcerated in the same concentration camp for Japanese Americans as my family during World War II. The camp was in Poston, Arizona. Okimoto was born in 1942 at the Santa Anita Assembly Center, a temporary detention facility for Japanese Americans. The detention facility was located at the Santa Anita Racetrack in Southern California, and Okimoto was born in a horse stable. From there, his family was moved and incarcerated in Poston. Since learning about this connection between Okimoto’s family and mine, I felt a strong personal connection to him.

Since the beginning of my time at SPICE, Professor Okimoto has been unwavering in his support of SPICE’s projects on U.S.–Japan relations and the Japanese American experience. He served as the Principal Investigator for multiple U.S.–Japan relations- and Japanese American-focused curriculum projects, the Reischauer Scholars Program (an online course that has been offered to high school students in the United States since 2004), and Stanford e-Japan (an online course that has been offered to high school students in Japan since 2015). One of SPICE’s most popular multimedia offerings is “An Interpretive History of Japan,” which is based on six lectures by Okimoto. Through these projects, I also established a strong professional connection to him.

Professor Okimoto has been an incredible champion for the Reischauer Scholars Program from its inception, rallying other U.S.–Japan experts and leaders to back our mission of teaching and inspiring the next generation of young scholars to strengthen ties between the United States and Japan. Over the past 20+ years, his guidance and example as a mentor have shaped me as a teacher and profoundly strengthened a vibrant community of educators and students.—Naomi Funahashi, Reischauer Scholars Program instructor

 

Prof. Daniel Okimoto has championed the Stanford e-Japan Program since its inception. In addition to providing some of the lectures for the initial cohorts, Dan was also generous with his time and knowledge with high school students in Japan through guest speaking in Virtual Classrooms.—Waka Takahashi Brown and Meiko Kotani, Stanford e-Japan Program instructors


Importantly, numerous SPICE staff (past and present) have studied under Okimoto, including Dr. Mariko Yang-Yoshihara, an educational researcher and instructor for SPICE whose primary advisor was Okimoto. She noted the following: “Having Dan Okimoto as my doctoral advisor was one of the greatest blessings in my life. What I gained from his mentorship both as a student and as a person was immense, and two moments in particular stay with me today. The first was the Japanese Imperial couple’s visit to the Stanford campus in 1994. Dan’s role as Stanford’s leading Japan expert often meant welcoming distinguished visitors from around the world; and on that occasion, he chose to share something deeply personal, that he had been born in a horse stable as his family was sent to a concentration camp. And in response, Empress Michiko called him ‘another great man born in a horse stable.’ This brief exchange stayed with me through my time as a student as it felt like a real glimpse into my advisor’s life as a Japanese American scholar, carrying the weight of history while still holding onto the quiet warmth of our shared humanity. The second anecdote came shortly after 9/11, when so many of us were grappling with fear and uncertainty of the future. As I sat in his office, anxious and overwhelmed, Dan said very little except, very quietly, ‘I worry about the Muslim American community.’ In that moment, I came to understand how deeply his own experiences had shaped how he cares for the world: amid a national crisis, his heart instinctively focused on vulnerable communities. These were the moments from which I learned the most as his student: lessons in humanity and empathy. They have since become the foundation of the learning goals in the courses I teach. I hope that our work at SPICE will honor and carry forward Dan’s legacy by developing curricula that shed light on the Japanese American experience and nurture empathy and a sense of shared humanity in future generations.”

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three people in suits standing in the back and one person sitting


On behalf of the SPICE staff, I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to Professor Okimoto for his unwavering support of SPICE. As someone who was born in a horse stable and unjustly incarcerated as a child without due process by his own country—along with approximately 120,000 people of Japanese descent, two thirds of whom were U.S. citizens—and is now Professor Emeritus of Stanford University, he remains a tremendous role model and inspiration to us at SPICE. He and his wife, Michiko, are still contributing greatly to U.S.–Japan relations through organizations like the Silicon Valley Japan Platform and the U.S.-Japan Council. They worked closely with the late Secretary Norman Mineta (left) and the late Senator Daniel Inouye (center); photo above courtesy of Daniel Okimoto. Like Okimoto, Secretary Mineta was also incarcerated by his country as a child during World War II. Senator Daniel Inouye was a Medal of Honor recipient for his service in the U.S. Army during World War II. Like Okimoto, Mineta and Inouye were also recipients of the Order of the Rising Sun. 

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SPICE Honors Top Two High School Scholars at Japan Day Event

SPICE honored two of the top students of the 2011 Reischauer Scholars Program (RSP) at a Japan Day event at Stanford University on August 19, 2011.
SPICE Honors Top Two High School Scholars at Japan Day Event
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(left) Daniel Okimoto (age 1) with his siblings in Poston Concentration Camp, Arizona, during World War II; (right) Daniel Okimoto receiving the Order of the Rising Sun, Gold Rays with Neck Ribbon, 2007 | Photos courtesy of Daniel Okimoto
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Dr. Okimoto served for decades as the Principal Investigator and speaker for multiple U.S.–Japan-focused projects for SPICE.

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Contrary to prevailing assumptions (and authoritarian aspirations), Larry Diamond argues that promoting democracy is not a dying or hopeless mission for the U.S. Here is why it remains an imperative, and how we can build it back better in the years to come.

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The optimistic assumptions that shaped the wave of globalization at the turn of the 21st century have given way to geoeconomics, also known as economic statecraft, or the use of economic leverage to advance the geopolitical interests of nation-states. In this environment of "weaponized interdependence," corporations have become actors on the frontlines of the U.S.-China rivalry, the Russia-Ukraine war, China-Taiwan tensions, and other national security conflicts in which they are organizationally ill-suited to play a central role, cautions APARC Faculty Affiliate Curtis J. Milhaupt, the William F. Baxter-Visa International Professor of Law and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. 

Milhaupt, an internationally recognized expert on comparative corporate governance, delivered a keynote speech titled Corporate Governance in an Era of Geoeconomics at the Corporate Governance Conference in Milan, Italy, on February 12, 2026. He described the era of geoeconomics as representing a dramatic departure from early 2000s thinking, when capital markets were viewed as politically neutral, shareholder identity was considered irrelevant, and scholars predicted global convergence on Western corporate governance models. All three assumptions have collapsed, posing significant repercussions for firm-specific legal risks and governance challenges. Watch Milhaupt's presentation:

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Heightened Compliance Risk


The U.S.-China rivalry has created a particularly complex challenge for corporate governance, says Mihaupt. The United States has enacted multiple laws to curtail technology transfers to China, with China responding in a tit-for-tat fashion. The resulting, rapidly shifting and conflicting legal environment makes it "virtually impossible for a compliance department to comply with both U.S. and Chinese regulations."

Milhaupt introduced the concept of "ESG + G," adding geoeconomics to the Environmental, Social, and Governance framework used by investors and companies to assess a company's sustainability, ethical impact, and risk management beyond mere financial performance. Like ESG, geoeconomics involves corporations taking on roles traditionally played by governments. "I think in many respects private companies have become national security partners of their home country governments," he said.

Milhaupt's review of the disclosures of risk factors in the securities filings of public companies in the United States over the past 20 years shows the dramatic shift in corporate risk perception. Mentions of geopolitical risks related to export controls, the China-Taiwan conflict, and supply chain vulnerabilities have spiked sharply since 2020, with a particularly dramatic increase following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Despite these challenges, corporations appear to be unprepared for the exploitation of the vulnerabilities created by economic interdependence in the era of geoeconomics. Only 5% of Russell 3000 companies disclose information on how they monitor geopolitical risk, Milhaupt finds. Among those that do, most provide no details about their strategies. Meanwhile, the expertise necessary for geopolitical risk assessment is declining as a percentage of S&P 500 boards of directors.

Divergent Governance Paths


In the era of globalization, corporate governance systems worldwide largely converged around the liberal vision of shareholder primacy. In today’s geoeconomic era, however, a different kind of convergence may be emerging: one shaped less by market ideology and more by the shared political values and strategic priorities of the home governments of globally active firms. Thus, we are witnessing increasing concern with the national identity of corporations and their shareholders, Milhaupt observes. "The standard legal tests for corporate national identity – jurisdiction of incorporation, or the real seat doctrine – are in danger of being overriden by political determinations such as the one that was applied to TikTok in the United States."

At the same time, Milhaupt argues, we may be witnessing the beginning of a movement in the opposite direction to the Western model of corporate governance: "the spread of what might be thought of as state capitalism in the West." To illustrate this trend, Milhaupt cites the case of the U.S. government's "golden share" in U.S. Steel as a condition for allowing its merger with Japanese company Nippon Steel.

While Milhaupt recognizes the necessity of government actions to protect national security in the corporate sector, he warns against ad hoc informal interventions in the private sector. "I don't think that these are really the answer to competition with Beijing," he said. "I'm particularly concerned about the impact of these government interventions on global investment, which relies on a predictable legal regulatory enforcement regime."

Milhaupt concludes that the era of geoeconomics is "the new normal," and both companies and governments must adapt to a world where economic and national security concerns are inextricably linked.

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Corporate Governance in an Era of Geoeconomics

Corporate Governance in an Era of Geoeconomics
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The Political Economy of Global Stock Exchange Competition [ Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance]

Global stock exchanges today operate in a transformed environment. They remain commercial enterprises competing for listings, but they are also strategic assets deeply embedded in state policy and geopolitical rivalry.
The Political Economy of Global Stock Exchange Competition [ Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance]
U.S. President Donald Trump (L) listens as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks in the Cross Hall of the White House during an event on "Investing in America" on April 30, 2025 in Washington, DC.
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Lawless State Capitalism Is No Answer to China’s Rise

Invoking national security and the economic rivalry with China, the Trump administration is pursuing legally dubious interventions and control of private industry, with potentially high costs for US dynamism. Like the panic over Japan's rise in the 1980s, the administration's response is unwarranted and counterproductive.
Lawless State Capitalism Is No Answer to China’s Rise
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No longer insulated from statecraft, corporations have been thrust onto the front lines of geopolitical rivalry, while governance structures have not caught up, cautions Stanford Law Professor Curtis Milhaupt in a keynote speech delivered at the 2026 Corporate Governance Conference.

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In an unprecedented collaboration, Stanford's Deliberative Democracy Lab has spearheaded the first-ever Industry-Wide Forum, a cross-industry effort putting everyday people at the center of decisions about AI agents. This unique initiative involving industry leaders Cohere, Meta, Oracle, PayPal, DoorDash, and Microsoft marks a significant shift in how AI technologies could be developed.

AI agents, advanced artificial intelligence systems designed to reason, plan, and act on behalf of users, are poised to revolutionize how we interact with technology. This Industry-Wide Forum provided an opportunity for the public in the United States and India to deliberate and share their attitudes on how AI agents should be deployed and developed.

The Forum employed a method known as Deliberative Polling, an innovative approach that goes beyond traditional surveys and focus groups. In November 2025, 503 participants from the United States and India engaged in an in-depth process on the AI-assisted Stanford Online Deliberation Platform, developed by Stanford's Crowdsourced Democracy Team. This method involves providing balanced information to participants, facilitated expert Q&A sessions, and small-group discussions. The goal is to capture informed public opinion that can provide durable steers in this rapidly evolving space.

As part of the process, academics, civil society, and non-profit organizations, including the Collective Intelligence Project, Center for Democracy and Technology, and academics from Ashoka University and Institute of Technology-Jodhpur, vetted the briefing materials for balance and accuracy, and some served as expert panelists for live sessions with the nationally representative samples of the United States and India.  

"This groundbreaking Forum represents a pivotal moment in AI development," said James Fishkin, Director of Stanford's Deliberative Democracy Lab. "By actively involving the public in shaping AI agent behavior, we're not just building better technology — we're building trust and ensuring these powerful tools align with societal values."

"This groundbreaking Forum represents a pivotal moment in AI development. By actively involving the public in shaping AI agent behavior, we're not just building better technology — we're building trust and ensuring these powerful tools align with societal values.
James Fishkin
Director, Deliberative Democracy Lab

The deliberations yielded clear priorities for building trust through safeguards during this early phase of agentic development and adoption. Currently, participants favor AI agents for low-risk tasks, while expressing caution about high-stakes applications in medical or financial domains. In deliberation, participants indicated an openness to these higher-risk applications if provided safeguards around privacy or user control, such as requiring approval before finalizing an action.

The Forum also revealed support for culturally adaptive agents, with a preference for asking users about norms rather than making assumptions. Lastly, the discussions underscored the need for better public understanding of AI agents and their capabilities, pointing to the importance of transparency and education in fostering trust in these emerging technologies.

"The perspectives coming out of these initial deliberations underscore the importance of our key focus areas at Cohere: security, privacy, and safeguards,” said Joelle Pineau, Chief AI Officer at Cohere. “We look forward to continuing our work alongside other leaders to strengthen industry standards for this technology, particularly for enterprise agentic AI that works with sensitive data."

The perspectives coming out of these initial deliberations underscore the importance of our key focus areas at Cohere: security, privacy, and safeguards. We look forward to continuing our work alongside other leaders to strengthen industry standards for this technology.
Joelle Pineau
Chief AI Officer, Cohere

This pioneering forum sets a new standard for public participation in AI development. By seeking feedback directly from the public, combining expert knowledge, meaningful public dialogue, and cross-industry commitment, the Industry Wide Forum provides a key mechanism for ensuring that AI innovation is aligned with public values and expectations.

“Technology better serves people when it's grounded in their feedback and expectations,” said Rob Sherman, Meta’s Vice President, AI Policy & Deputy Chief Privacy Officer.  “This Forum reinforces how companies and researchers can collaborate to make sure AI agents are built to be responsive to the diverse needs of people who use them – not just at one company, but across the industry.”

Technology better serves people when it's grounded in their feedback and expectations. This Forum reinforces how companies and researchers can collaborate to make sure AI agents are built to be responsive to the diverse needs of people who use them.
Rob Sherman
Vice President, AI Policy & Deputy Chief Privacy Officer, Meta

Through Stanford’s established methodology and their facilitation of industry partners, the Industry-Wide Forum provides the public with the opportunity to engage deeply with complex technological issues and for AI companies to benefit from considered public perspectives in developing products that are responsive to public opinion. We hope this is the first step towards more collaboration among industry, academia, and the public to shape the future of AI in ways that benefit everyone.

“We have more industry partners joining our next forum later this year”, says Alice Siu, Associate Director of Stanford's Deliberative Democracy Lab. “The 2026 Industry-Wide Forum expands our discussion scope and further deepens our understanding of public attitudes towards AI agents. These deliberations will help ensure AI development remains aligned with societal values and expectations.”

The 2026 Industry-Wide Forum expands our discussion scope and further deepens our understanding of public attitudes towards AI agents. These deliberations will help ensure AI development remains aligned with societal values and expectations.
Alice Siu
Associate Director, Deliberative Democracy Lab

For a full briefing on the Industry-Wide Forum, please contact Alice Siu.

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DoorDash and Microsoft join Industry-Wide Deliberative Forum on Future of AI Agents

The inclusion of these companies in the Industry-Wide Deliberative Forum, convened by Stanford University’s Deliberative Democracy Lab, speaks to its importance and the need to engage the public on the future of AI agents.
DoorDash and Microsoft join Industry-Wide Deliberative Forum on Future of AI Agents
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Industry-Wide Deliberative Forum Invites Public to Weigh In on the Future of AI Agents

There is a significant gap between what technology, especially AI technology, is being developed and the public's understanding of such technologies. We must ask: what if the public were not just passive recipients of these technologies, but active participants in guiding their evolution?
Industry-Wide Deliberative Forum Invites Public to Weigh In on the Future of AI Agents
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In an unprecedented collaboration, Stanford's Deliberative Democracy Lab has spearheaded the first-ever Industry-Wide Forum, a cross-industry effort putting everyday people at the center of decisions about AI agents.

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Poster for the documentary "Atomic Echoes."

Two friends, connected by family histories on opposite sides of World War II, set out to explore the lasting trauma of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings. While Japanese hibakusha (survivors) endure lifelong health complications and psychological scars, American atomic veterans who witnessed the bombings’ aftermath also struggle with radiation-related illnesses and PTSD.

As the world approaches the 81st anniversary of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, much of the American public remains unaware of the psychological and physical toll left on both sides of the war. For Karin and Victoria, it is a part of history that’s close to home.

Karin’s great-great-uncle was from Hiroshima and dedicated his life to peace-building after the bomb, serving as the first president of Hiroshima University. Victoria’s grandfather, an American veteran who served as a medic in Nagasaki, was haunted by his experiences and suffered from post-traumatic stress disorder. He died young from PTSD-related alcoholism.

Together, Karin and Victoria seek answers from family members and historians, and speak with the last remaining survivors, before time runs out. Through their travels, conversations, and acts of reconciliation, they offer a new perspective on the nuclear age and its enduring consequences, urging reflection and peace as the global nuclear threat continues to grow. 

 

Speakers:

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Headshot photo of Karin Tanabe, taken by Tim Coburn

Karin Tanabe is a producer of the 2025 PBS documentary Atomic Echoes: Untold Stories from World War II. A Japanese American nisei, her grandmother’s uncle Morito Tatsuo was Japan’s post-war Minister of Education and in 1950, the first president of Hiroshima University, helping build an institution dedicated to peace.

A novelist, journalist, and speechwriter, Karin is the author of seven novels published by St. Martin’s Press and Simon & Schuster, and is currently at work on her eighth work of fiction. Several of her books have been optioned for film and television, including The Gilded Years to Sony/Tristar (through Reese Witherspoon’s Hello Sunshine), and most recently A Woman of Intelligence to NBC Universal. As a speechwriter, she often writes for U.S. ambassadors on foreign policy. A former Politico reporter, she also remains a frequent contributor to The Washington Post.

Karin is an honors graduate of Vassar College and lives in Washington, D.C. 

 

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Victoria Kelly is a producer of the 2025 PBS documentary Atomic Echoes: Untold Stories from World War II. Her grandfather, a Navy medic, was one of the first American troops to enter Nagasaki after the atomic bomb. 

 

Victoria is the author of four books of fiction and poetry: Homefront (University of Nevada Press), Mrs. Houdini (Simon & Schuster), When the Men Go Off to War (Naval Institute Press), and Prayers of an American Wife (Autumn House Press). Her fiction and poetry have appeared in Best American Poetry, The Autumn House Anthology of Contemporary American Poetry, Prairie Schooner, Southwest Review and dozens of other journals and anthologies. She is also a consultant for corporate and nonprofit thought leadership.

 

Victoria graduated Summa Cum Laude from Harvard University. She received her M.F.A. in Creative Writing from the Iowa Writers’ Workshop, and her M.Phil. in Creative Writing from Trinity College Dublin, where she was a U.S. Mitchell Scholar. She lives in Virginia with her three daughters. 

 

Moderator:


 

Square portrait photo of Kiyoteru Tsutsui

Kiyoteru Tsutsui is the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor, Professor of Sociology, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, where he is also Director of the Japan Program and Co-Director of the Southeast Asia Program. Tsutsui’s research interests lie in political/comparative sociology, social movements, globalization, human rights, and Japanese society. His most recent publication, Human Rights and the State: The Power of Ideas and the Realities of International Politics (Iwanami Shinsho, 2022), was awarded the 2022 Ishibashi Tanzan Award and the 44th Suntory Prize for Arts and Sciences.

Kiyoteru Tsutsui

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Drawing on two decades of research on nonviolent movements in conflict zones, Oliver Kaplan analyzes the rise of community efforts across the United States to protect neighbors from aggressive immigration enforcement. The article identifies key lessons shared with civilian protection strategies abroad, including the power of organizing, disciplined nonviolence, safe zones, community fact-finding, and accompaniment. While acknowledging the risks involved, it argues that collective action and moral authority can limit violence and strengthen civil society in the face of state power.

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Portrait of Jun Akabane. Flyer for the seminar "Japan's Economic Security and the Semiconductor Industry."
In this talk, Prof. Akabane presents research that examines the background behind the recent emphasis on economic security, the history of Japan's semiconductor industry, and the validity of Japan's ongoing semiconductor industry revitalization strategy.
 
Economic security gained prominence globally starting in the late 2010s as the U.S.-China economic rivalry became apparent, leading to related legislative developments. Furthermore, the semiconductor shortage that emerged in 2020 impacted production and social activities globally, leading to semiconductors being positioned as strategic materials. Under the banner of economic security, nations are now working to strengthen their semiconductor industry supply chains.
 
Japan's semiconductor industry held a high market share in the Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) sector during the 1980s. However, it lost competitiveness in the 1990s due to a misjudgment of market trends and changes in the external environment, such as the Japan-U.S. trade friction and yen appreciation. Its logic integrated circuit (IC) micro-processing technology stalled at 40nm in the 2010s. Against this backdrop, the semiconductor shortage that emerged in 2020 caused the Japanese government to recognize the need to revitalize its semiconductor industry, leading to the launch of two major projects currently underway: TSMC Kumamoto and Rapidus.
 
A comparative analysis, however, reveals strikingly different outcomes for supply chain resilience – a core component of economic security. TSMC Kumamoto strengthened linkages with Japan's equipment, materials, automotive, and electronics sectors, raising expectations that it would bolster Japan's domestic supply chain. Rapidus, by contrast, signals Japan's entry into the global supply chain for advanced logic ICs – a domain it had previously not participated in – rather than primarily reinforcing domestic resilience.
 
June Akabane
Jun Akabane joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as a visiting scholar beginning spring 2025 through winter 2026. He currently serves as Professor at Chuo University in the Department of Economics. While at APARC, he will be conducting research analyzing business strategies in the era of economic security from the perspective of global value chains, environmental and human rights issues, with a particular focus on companies in the U.S. and Asia.
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Visiting Scholar, March 2025-March 2026
Jun_Akabane.jpg PhD

Jun Akabane joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as visiting scholar beginning spring 2025 through winter 2026. He currently serves as Professor at Chuo University in the Department of Economics. While at APARC, he conducted research analyzing business strategies in the era of economic security from the perspective of global value chains, environmental and human rights issues, with a particular focus on companies in the U.S. and Asia.

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Image of Jessica Chen Weiss at the podium

At a recent seminar hosted by APARCʼs China Program, Professor Jessica Chen Weiss, the David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies at the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, presented findings from her forthcoming book, Faultlines: The Tensions Beneath China's Global Ambitions (under contract with Oxford University Press), which examines how domestic politics and regime insecurity shape China’s foreign policy ambitions, prospects for peaceful coexistence, and the future of international order. Drawing on research and fieldwork in China, Weiss argued that understanding Beijingʼs behavior on the world stage requires looking beyond ideology to the contested priorities and political calculations that drive decision-making within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Weiss proposed a framework centered on three pillars that have sustained CCP legitimacy since the late 1970s: sovereignty (nationalism), security (civility), and development. Her analysis reveals that China's objectives are not static but moving targets shaped by competing domestic interests, leadership priorities, and international pressures.


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The Sovereignty-Security-Development Paradigm
 

At the heart of Weissʼs argument is the recognition that the CCPʼs foremost concern is domestic survival. In the face of the collapse of most communist regimes, the Party has remained vigilant against what it calls “peaceful evolution” and democratic contagion.

On issues touching core sovereignty concerns – Taiwan, Hong Kong, and maritime territorial claims – China has been “hyperactive” in making demands, even when doing so invites international censure. Weiss explained that the more central an issue is to CCP domestic legitimacy, the harder it becomes to make concessions, and the more likely international pressure is to backfire.

Yet tensions exist between competing priorities. China has compromised on certain border disputes to shore up domestic security, while its evolving stance on climate change reflects a shift from viewing carbon limits as threats to growth to recognizing the greater threat environmental catastrophes present to the nation’s stability.

Beyond the Monolith: China's Internal Contestation
 

Weissʼs research demonstrates that authoritarian China is far from monolithic. Different geographic, economic, institutional, and even ideological interests shape policy debates, even if most actors lack formal veto power. Local governments can resist central directives, as evidenced during the COVID-19 outbreak, when local officials initially withheld information about human-to-human transmission from the central government to prevent panic from disrupting important political meetings.

This pattern of center-local tension extends to China's international commitments. Local officials often game environmental regulations to juice growth and secure promotions, undermining Beijingʼs pledges on carbon emissions. On issues ranging from Belt and Road investments to export controls, implementation frequently diverges from stated policy as local actors pursue their own interests.

Weiss’s framework distinguishes among issues that are both central and uncontested (such as Taiwan), those that are central but contested (like climate change and trade policy), and peripheral issues where Beijing has shown greater flexibility (such as demonstrated by many UN peacekeeping initiatives). This helps explain why international pressure succeeds in some domains but fails spectacularly in others.

"The more central an issue is domestically, the more pressure the government faces to perform, and the harder it is to defy these domestic expectations," Weiss said. As a result, international pressure on these central issues is more likely to backfire, forcing the government to be seen as defending its core interests. She underscored that "even on these central issues, there's often tension with other central priorities, and managing these trade-offs comes with a number of different risks. It also means that sometimes an issue that touches on one pillar of regime support can yield to another."

Nationalism as Constraint and Tool
 

Weiss described nationalism as both a pillar of the CCPʼs legitimacy and a potential vulnerability when the government’s response appears weak. While large-scale anti-foreign protests have become rare, nationalist sentiment remains active online and shapes diplomatic calculations.

During Speaker Nancy Pelosiʼs 2022 visit to Taiwan, Chinese social media erupted with calls for the PLA to shoot down her plane. One interlocutor told Weiss his 14-year-old son and friends had stayed up past bedtime to watch Pelosiʼs plane land, illustrating nationalismʼs penetration into Chinese society.

Survey research reveals Chinese public opinion is quite hawkish, with majorities supporting military spending and viewing the U.S. presence in Asia as a threat. The government often refrains from suppressing nationalist sentiment to avoid backlash, even when doing so creates diplomatic complications. Weissʼs public opinion survey experiments, however, reveal that tough but vague threats can provide the government with wiggle room for de-escalation, although disapproval emerges when action is not sufficiently tough.

China's activities are making autocracy more viable and, to the extent that China is succeeding, making China's example more appealing as a consequence. But its strategy doesn't hinge on defeating democracy around the world.
Jessica Chen Weiss

Regime Security Without Ideological Crusade
 

Weiss pushed back against arguments that China is bent on global domination or that ideology drives conflict with the West. While the CCP seeks a less ideologically threatening environment, it must balance this against development and market access.

This pragmatic calculus explains China's constrained support for Russiaʼs war in Ukraine — Beijing fears secondary sanctions more than it values autocratic solidarity. Rather than exporting revolution, China has worked with incumbents of all political stripes in the service of its national interests.

Chinaʼs strategy focuses on making autocracy viable at home, not on defeating democracy globally. This suggests room for coexistence if both sides can reach a détente on interference in internal affairs.

“China's activities are making autocracy more viable and, to the extent that China is succeeding, making China's example more appealing as a consequence. But its strategy doesn't hinge on defeating democracy around the world,” argued Weiss. This implies, to her view, that “there is more room for coexistence between autocracies and democracies if these different systems can find or reach a potential détente in the realm of ideas about how countries govern themselves, and importantly, they need to pull back their efforts in other societies across boundaries.”

Interdependence and Future Trajectories
 

Weiss concluded by outlining how her framework suggests different engagement strategies depending on where issues fall within the centrality-contestation matrix. On central but uncontested issues like Taiwan, pressure proves counterproductive, and reciprocal restraint may be most promising. On central but contested issues like currency, multilateral pressure can influence certain Chinese constituencies against others. On peripheral issues, such pressure is most effective unless powerful domestic constituencies subvert implementation.

Addressing questions about U.S.-China decoupling, Weiss noted that both sides recognize there are interdependencies that don’t have quick solutions. Even in a critical area like minerals, diversification will take at least a decade, and Chinese processing will still dominate globally. The goal of diversification should be to preempt coercion, not to achieve true decoupling.

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China studies expert Jessica Chen Weiss of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies reveals how the Chinese Communist Partyʼs pursuit of domestic survival, which balances three core pillars, drives Beijingʼs assertive yet pragmatic foreign policy in an evolving international order.

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  • Chinaʼs foreign policy is driven by three domestic pillars: The CCPʼs pursuit of sovereignty, security, and development creates competing priorities that shape Beijingʼs assertiveness on core issues like Taiwan, while allowing flexibility on peripheral concerns such as UN peacekeeping.
  • International pressure often backfires on central issues: The more important an issue is to CCP domestic legitimacy, the harder it becomes to make concessions, meaning external pressure regarding Taiwan or territorial disputes tends to strengthen rather than moderate Beijingʼs position.
  • China is not monolithic: Local governments, industries, and different Party factions contest policy implementation, creating gaps between Beijingʼs stated commitments and actual behavior on issues ranging from environmental regulations to trade.
     
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