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Venezuela Panel Event

The U.S. military operation known as Operation Absolute Resolve, which resulted in the capture and removal of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela, represents a watershed moment in hemispheric politics. The operation, characterized by precision targeting, limited duration, and the absence of a formal occupation, has nonetheless created a profound political rupture inside Venezuela and raised far-reaching questions about sovereignty, legitimacy, governance, and democratic reconstruction.

This event convenes scholars and practitioners to examine what comes after such a military intervention, providing an analysis of post-extraction scenarios, drawing on comparative experience, Venezuelan political dynamics, and theories of post-authoritarian and post-conflict transitions.

The discussion does not seek to justify or condemn the intervention itself. Rather, it aims to assess the range of plausible futures now confronting Venezuela and the conditions under which the current rupture could lead to authoritarian rebalancing, prolonged disorder, or democratic recovery.

SPEAKERS:

  • María Ignacia Curiel
  • Héctor Fuentes
  • Dorothy Kronick
  • Harold Trinkunas
  • Diego A. Zambrano
     

MODERATOR: Alberto Díaz-Cayeros 

About the Speakers

Maria Curiel

Maria Ignacia Curiel

Research Scholar, CDDRL; Research Affiliate, Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab
Link to bio

María Ignacia Curiel is a Research Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law and Research Affiliate of the Poverty, Violence and Governance Lab at Stanford University. Curiel is an empirical political scientist using experimental, observational, and qualitative data to study questions of violence and democratic participation, peacebuilding, and representation.

Her research primarily explores political solutions to violent conflict and the electoral participation of parties with violent origins. This work includes an in-depth empirical study of Comunes, the Colombian political party formed by the former FARC guerrilla, as well as a broader analysis of rebel party behaviors across different contexts. More recently, her research has focused on democratic mobilization and the political representation of groups affected by violence in Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela.

Hector Fuentes

Héctor Fuentes

Visiting Scholar, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Link to bio

Hector Fuentes is a Visiting Scholar at Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University. His research focuses on Venezuelan elections, exploring the dynamics that led to this semi-competitive election, analyzing the strategic successes of the opposition, and identifying windows of opportunity for fostering a transition to democracy in Venezuela.

Dorothy_Kronick

Dorothy Kronick

Associate Professor of Public Policy, Goldman School of Public Policy at Berkeley
Link to bio

Dorothy Kronick is an Associate Professor of Public Policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy at Berkeley. She studies contemporary Latin American politics, focusing on Venezuelan politics and the politics of crime and policing. Her work has been published in the American Political Science Review, the Journal of Politics, Science, and Science Advances, among other outlets. Her commentary on Venezuelan politics has appeared in the New York Times and the Washington Post.

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Harold Trinkunas

Deputy Director and a Senior Research Scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Link to bio

Harold Trinkunas is a Senior Research Scholar and the Deputy Director at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. His work has examined civil-military relations, ungoverned spaces, terrorist financing, emerging power dynamics, and global governance.

Diego Zambrano

Diego A. Zambrano

Associate Professor of Law, Stanford Law School & CDDRL Affiliated Faculty
Link to bio

Diego A. Zambrano is a Professor of Law and Associate Dean for Global Programs at Stanford Law School, specializing in the areas of civil litigation and comparative law. He is also the faculty director of the Neukom Center for the Rule of Law and Faculty Affiliate at the Center on Democracy, Development and Rule of Law at Stanford University. 

Alberto Díaz-Cayeros

Alberto Díaz-Cayeros

Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI), Affiliated faculty at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), Co-director, Democracy Action Lab (DAL)
Link to bio

Alberto Diaz-Cayeros joined the FSI faculty in 2013 after serving for five years as the director of the Center for US-Mexico studies at the University of California, San Diego. He earned his Ph.D at Duke University in 1997. He was an assistant professor of political science at Stanford from 2001-2008, before which he served as an assistant professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles. Diaz-Cayeros has also served as a researcher at Centro de Investigacion Para el Desarrollo, A.C. in Mexico from 1997-1999. His work has focused on federalism, poverty and violence in Latin America, and Mexico in particular. He has published widely in Spanish and English. His book Federalism, Fiscal Authority and Centralization in Latin America was published by Cambridge University Press in 2007 (reprinted 2016). His latest book (with Federico Estevez and Beatriz Magaloni) is: The Political Logic of Poverty Relief Electoral Strategies and Social Policy in Mexico. His work has primarily focused on federalism, poverty and economic reform in Latin America, and Mexico in particular, with more recent work addressing crime and violence, youth-at-risk, and police professionalization. He currently serves as the co-director of the Democracy Action Lab at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDRRL) at the Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI).

Alberto Díaz-Cayeros
Alberto Díaz-Cayeros

William J. Perry Conference Room, Encina Hall 2nd Floor 

Virtual to Public. If prompted for a password, use: 123456
Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to the William J. Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person.

Encina Hall, Suite 052
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Research Scholar
Research Manager, Democracy Action Lab
Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab Research Affiliate, 2024-25
CDDRL Postdoctoral Fellow, 2023-24
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María Ignacia Curiel is a Research Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law and Research Affiliate of the Poverty, Violence and Governance Lab at Stanford University. Curiel is an empirical political scientist using experimental, observational, and qualitative data to study questions of violence and democratic participation, peacebuilding, and representation.

Her research primarily explores political solutions to violent conflict and the electoral participation of parties with violent origins. This work includes an in-depth empirical study of Comunes, the Colombian political party formed by the former FARC guerrilla, as well as a broader analysis of rebel party behaviors across different contexts. More recently, her research has focused on democratic mobilization and the political representation of groups affected by violence in Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela.

Curiel's work has been supported by the Folke Bernadotte Academy, the Institute for Humane Studies, and the APSA Centennial Center and is published in the Journal of Politics. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and dual B.A. degrees in Economics and Political Science from New York University.

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María Ignacia Curiel Research Scholar Research Manager Panelist Democracy Action Lab (DAL) and CDDRL, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI)
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Héctor Fuentes is a Research Affiliate at Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law and its Democracy Action Lab (DAL). His research focuses on the critical juncture of the 2024 Venezuelan elections, exploring the dynamics that led to this semi-competitive election, analyzing the strategic successes of the opposition, and identifying windows of opportunity for fostering a transition to democracy in Venezuela. As the Director of EstadoLab, he has co-authored influential pieces on state fragility and democracy in Venezuela, as well as on state fragility across South America.

Héctor holds a Master of Global Affairs from Tsinghua University, where he was a Schwarzman Scholar, and a Master of Public Policy from the University of Oxford, supported by a Chevening Scholarship. His legal training was completed at the Central University of Venezuela, where he graduated as valedictorian. Throughout his career, Héctor has built extensive expertise in institutional capacity building, rule of law strengthening, and natural resource governance.

In addition to his research and academic work, Héctor has been actively involved in democracy promotion efforts in Venezuela. He co-founded EstadoLab, leading national campaigns that reached millions of young people and supported their participation in pro-democracy initiatives. He has also worked on various international projects aimed at rebuilding state capacity and promoting justice reform.

Research Affiliate, CDDRL
CDDRL Visiting Scholar, 2024-26
Fisher Family Summer Fellow, 2024
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Héctor Fuentes Visiting Scholar Panelist Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI)
Dorothy Kronick Associate Professor of Public Policy Panelist Goldman School of Public Policy, U.C. Berkeley
Harold Trinkunas Senior Research Scholar & Deputy Director Panelist Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI)

Room N346, Neukom Building
555 Nathan Abbott Way
Stanford, CA 94305

650.721.7681
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Professor of Law, Stanford Law School
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Diego A. Zambrano’s primary research and teaching interests lie in the areas of civil procedure, transnational litigation, and judicial federalism. His work explores the civil litigation landscape: the institutions, norms, and incentives that influence litigant and judicial behavior. Professor Zambrano also has an interest in comparative constitutional law and legal developments related to Venezuela. He currently leads an innovative Stanford Policy Lab tracking “Global Judicial Reforms” and has served as an advisor to pro-democracy political parties in Venezuela. In 2021, Professor Zambrano received the Barbara Allen Babcock Award for Excellence in Teaching.

Professor Zambrano’s scholarship has appeared or is forthcoming at the Columbia Law Review, University of Chicago Law Review, Michigan Law Review, Northwestern University Law Review, Stanford Law Review, and Virginia Law Review, among other journals, and has been honored by the American Association of Law Schools (AALS) and the National Civil Justice Institute. Professor Zambrano will be a co-author of the leading casebook Civil Procedure: A Modern Approach (8th ed. 2024) (with Marcus, Pfander, and Redish). In addition, Professor Zambrano serves as the current chair of the Federal Courts Section of the AALS. He also writes about legal issues for broader public audiences, with his contributions appearing in the Wall Street Journal, BBC News, and Lawfare.

After graduating with honors from Harvard Law School in 2013, Professor Zambrano spent three years as an associate at Cleary Gottlieb in New York, focusing on transnational litigation and arbitration. Before joining Stanford Law School in 2018, Professor Zambrano was a Bigelow Teaching Fellow at the University of Chicago Law School.

CDDRL Affiliated Faculty
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Diego A. Zambrano Associate Professor of Law, CDDRL Affiliated Faculty Panelist Stanford Law School
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This event has reached capacity. Registration is now closed.

Portrait of Rahm Emanuel.

EVENT UPDATE: Due to overwhelming interest, registration for this event is now on a first-come, first-served basis with no waitlist to ensure fairness and accommodate as many guests as possible. Seating is not guaranteed, so please arrive early. An overflow space will be available. Expect a confirmation email from our event team by January 22.

The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) are pleased to host Ambassador, Mayor, Congressman, and White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel for a fireside chat with Ambassador Michael McFaul, with welcome remarks by Kiyoteru Tsutsui, the director of APARC, and a Q&A session to follow. 

Ambassador Emanuel, most recently the Ambassador of the United States to Japan, is famous for straight talk, relentless drive, and game-changing results. He will share his unvarnished thoughts on America’s relationships with Japan and other key allies, and, more broadly, what it means to lead and the leadership we need at home and abroad at this moment in history. Ambassador Emanuel is a brilliant strategist and an engaging speaker who will hold us accountable. Get ready for a fast-paced and wide-ranging discussion, including important insights from one of our generation’s brightest minds and greatest leaders.

 

Speaker

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Colored photo of Rahm Emanuel sitting on a chair giving discussion at a 2017 Stanford Event

Rahm Emanuel has devoted his life to public service, with a remarkable number of impactful leadership positions across government.  Appointed the 31st United States Ambassador to Japan by President Joe Biden, he most recently served in Tokyo from 2021 – 2025 during a period of expanding Chinese aggression and massive investment in our Asia Pacific Alliances.  As Mayor of the City of Chicago from 2011-2019, he invested in education, providing universal public pre-kindergarten and full-day kindergarten for every Chicago child, and free community college.  Chicago led the U.S. in corporate relocations and foreign direct investment for seven consecutive years during his administration, and he prioritized investment in infrastructure, public transportation, open space, and cultural attractions.

From 2008-2010, Ambassador Emanuel was President Barack Obama’s Chief of Staff and top advisor, helping secure the passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act and the landmark Affordable Care Act.  Emanuel was elected four times as a Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Illinois’s 5th Congressional District (2002-2008). As Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, Emanuel helped pass legislation to raise the minimum wage and authored the Great Lakes Restoration Act.  From 1993 to 1998, Ambassador Emanuel rose to serve as Senior Advisor to the President for Policy and Politics in the Clinton Administration, spearheading efforts to pass the President’s signature achievements, including the Federal Assault Weapons Ban, the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act, and the historic Balanced Budget Act, which created the Children’s Health Insurance Program expanding health care coverage to 10 million children.

 

Moderator

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Photo of Michael McFaul

Michael McFaul is a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and former director of FSI, the Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Professor of International Studies in the Department of Political Science, and the Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, all at Stanford University. He joined the Stanford faculty in 1995. Dr. McFaul is also an international affairs analyst for NBC News. He served for five years in the Obama administration, first as special assistant to the president and senior director for Russian and Eurasian Affairs at the National Security Council at the White House (2009-2012), and then as U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation (2012-2014).

He has authored several books, most recently Autocrats versus Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder. Earlier books include the New York Times bestseller From Cold War to Hot Peace: An American Ambassador in Putin’s Russia, Advancing Democracy Abroad: Why We Should, How We Can; Transitions To Democracy: A Comparative Perspective (eds. with Kathryn Stoner); Power and Purpose: American Policy toward Russia after the Cold War (with James Goldgeier); and Russia’s Unfinished Revolution: Political Change from Gorbachev to Putin.

He teaches courses on great power relations, democratization, comparative foreign policy decision-making, and revolutions.

Michael A. McFaul

Bechtel Conference Center
Encina Hall, First floor, Central, S150
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Rahm Emanuel
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The following is Part 12 of a multiple-part series. To read previous installments in this series, please visit the following articles: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8, Part 9, Part 10, and Part 11.

Since December 8, 2020, SPICE has posted 11 articles that highlight reflections from 88 students on the question, “What does it mean to be an American?” Part 12 features seven additional reflections. The reflections below do not necessarily reflect those of the SPICE staff.

The free educational website “What Does It Mean to Be an American?” offers six lessons on immigration, civic engagement, leadership, civil liberties & equity, justice & reconciliation, and U.S.–Japan relations. The lessons encourage critical thinking through class activities and discussions. On March 24, 2021, SPICE’s Rylan Sekiguchi was honored by the Association for Asian Studies for his authorship of the lessons that are featured on the website, which was developed by the Mineta Legacy Project in partnership with SPICE.

Emma Estrada, California 
For me, being an American means utilizing all the opportunities provided by the country to the people. Being able to fulfill your hopes and dreams that seem impractical to accomplish. There is a meaning behind people coming to this country. It’s because they are in search of a fresh start and our nation’s liberty and individualism allows them to have one. America has many different cultures and beliefs to explore, and everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Being an American also means looking towards the future while remembering the past. There have been many people who came before us who sacrificed and fought for this country so that we could say that we are American. Living in this country allows us to not only correct but create new history to help improve our nation.

Miki Harris, California
To be American is to accept that I will never pass as one race. It is to accept that people may make a game out of guessing my ethnicity. It is to accept that I may feel out of place in family gatherings and countries of my ethnic origin.

But to be American is to realize the unique variation of people around me and celebrate it. It is learning cultural history in African American studies, trying my friend’s homemade tamales, or simply people-watching in the school hallways.

For me, having the freedom to decide where I fit and who I am is what it means to be American. How could I ever feel out of place when there is no one place to begin with?

Bo Ichiki, California
While living in Japan, I felt an overwhelming catalog of systematic milestones for success—attend a nice elementary school, get good grades, take extracurricular activities, attend a nice middle school, and eventually get accepted for a job at a successful company, known as ōte kigyō (大手企業). For me, being American is the governing of one’s own life. Here, society seems only to shadow who we are, and leave the outline and colors for ourselves to picture—good or bad. The freedom can result in too much for one to handle. In Japan, crime rates are much lower than those of the U.S., and the disparity of wealth is much smaller; there are fewer poverty-stricken citizens or incredibly rich individuals. In the U.S., there is less guidance on the “proper” way to become successful, which leads to the inconsistency that proves to be either the gift of abstract and unique innovations or the curse of poverty and being misled. Being American allows citizens to draw a new path to the good or to the bad. Being American grants the right of control.

Claire Ishimatsu, California
When I think of America, I think of freedom, particularly the freedom to learn about my culture. As a fifth-generation Japanese American, I grew up in a very American household where being Japanese wasn’t a large part of my life. Seeing my friends speak a second language and celebrate cultural holidays inspired me to explore my ancestral heritage. I learned that my grandparents were incarcerated in the Japanese American Incarceration Camps during World War II. They lived during a time when it was “wrong” to be of Japanese descent so they distanced themselves from their native tongue and traditions. Nonetheless, they remained proud Americans with some even fighting in the war against Japan. Hearing their experiences made me grateful for the freedoms I have today. Now my family celebrates Japanese holidays and traditions. I’m also taking Japanese at my high school, and slowly, the language has started to fill my house like it did a century ago. Being American means having the freedom to learn about and embrace my Japanese identity.

Jibhum Lee, Hawai‘i
clank...clank…clank

One hundred and seventy six years ago, immigrants from many countries as well as from other parts of the United States took on a perilous journey to California. They were drawn to the California Gold Rush. Accompanying them were rhythmic “clanks”—the sound of their tools, wagons, and buckles. At each step, a “clank” gave a powerful beat as they headed toward their destination. Being an American does not mean having a navy-blue passport with the gold-leafed “United States of America.” When I was young, I compared my green-covered Korean passport with the dark blue my eyes drowned in, thinking to myself, “When will I have that?” These things are arbitrary in comparison to the rhythmic beat every American carries—the sound of passion and trust in finding their North Star. “American” is a label too small for the people who make up this country. Yet, the “clanks” made by those who immigrated and struggled to keep their place in America are passed through generations. What unites us is this beat: sometimes loud and oftentimes soft, but always steady.

Sofia McGullam Ornelas, California
The United States has a rich history of asking the complex question: What does it mean to be an American? The answer to this question has varied according to the time, place, and context of when it has been asked. For example, there have been times in American history that excluded ethnic minority groups from full citizenship rights. Our country is a mosaic of different ethnic groups who have collaborated to improve civil rights. The diversity of the United States informs the idea that anyone can come here and make a better life for themselves, despite a history of certain federal administrations preventing immigration from various countries. Americans can and should point out systemic flaws and implement legislation that can provide protections for minority groups. For example, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. witnessed economic and racial inequities and drew attention to how unjust society was for people of color in the United States. The Civil Rights Movement led to the historic passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Ultimately, the meaning of being an American is always working to better this country for all its citizens while still proudly identifying and acknowledging one’s heritage.

Ryan Tonkovich, California
Most countries are founded on geographic, ethnic, and religious heritage. Not America. Unlike anywhere else, America is founded on ideas. It is these ideas that unite us as Americans and not some shared ancestral lands or a shared ethnic or religious heritage. For nearly 250 years, people have come to America seeking economic opportunity or fleeing poverty, war, and persecution. Because nearly every race, ethnicity, and religion is represented in America, it is not these elements that bind us as Americans. Rather, it is our fundamental beliefs. It is our belief in democracy, in freedom of speech, in freedom of assembly, in religious freedom, in equal protection under the law, in a nation of laws, and in “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” that defines us as Americans. 

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What Does It Mean to Be an American?: Reflections from Students (Part 11)

Reflections of eight students on the educational website “What Does It Mean to Be an American?”
What Does It Mean to Be an American?: Reflections from Students (Part 11)
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Clockwise from top left: Emma Estrada, Miki Harris, Bo Ichiki, Claire Ishimatsu, Ryan Tonkovich, Sofia McGullam Ornelas, and Jibhum Lee
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Reflections of seven students on the educational website “What Does It Mean to Be an American?”

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My time in the Stanford e-Entrepreneurship Japan program was transformative. I came in with a jumble of passions and questions about the world and left with lifelong friends across the world, invaluable mentoring, and a clear vision.

Every session was a journey in and of itself. It combined strong individual and team preparation, presentations to and from amazing guest speakers, and reflective discussions at the end. This constantly pushed me and my peers to grow into better critical thinkers, speakers, listeners, and team players; high expectations yielded high results. I was amazed by the diversity of the guest speakers and the topics we dove into: design thinking, AI & philosophy, sustainability, and more. Each gave me new world perspectives and challenged me to think in ways I hadn’t before. I began pondering upon questions such as “How does this choice impact the world around me?” “Does philanthropy benefit the rich more than the underprivileged?” “How can we navigate a world of AI?” This in turn has helped me view entrepreneurship as something inherently social, a means of designing thoughtful solutions to real problems and ultimately making a positive difference in the world.

One of my most memorable moments was the final group presentation, where we advocated for a charitable organization that would receive a donation if picked by the judges. My group chose The Ocean Cleanup and devoted ourselves to understanding the socio-environmental consequences of plastic pollution, as well as presenting it in a way that would resonate with our audience. I vividly remember calling my group members past 2am one night out of pure excitement and motivation, giving feedback on each other’s slides and encouraging one another. We ended up winning! But even more than that, I am truly grateful for the relationships that SeEJ has gifted me.

In fact, as one of the few students living in the United States, I was so honored to share a screen with people from Okinawa to Hokkaido. So much so that I decided to create a Canvas announcement titled “SeEJ Hangout in Tokyo!!!!” Mission accomplished: I got to spend a few hours with my peers in person (in Shibuya!) after three months of Zoom boxes, which was an incredible and unforgettable experience.

SeEJ allowed me to embark on a journey of self-discovery as well. Through the individual research paper and 2-minute video on a social issue of choice—core pillars of SeEJ—I discovered my passion for nuclear disarmament. Growing up listening to my hibakusha (atomic bomb survivor) grandfather’s childhood stories, I never fully realized the power of his voice and my own. (Photo below courtesy of Erin Tsutsui.) Through SeEJ, I was able to name this passion and imagine a concrete path forward. Now, I commit myself to dismantling the mindset and weaponry that allows war to exist, as I am building a youth-led initiative that mobilizes and educates youth to spread hibakusha stories by utilizing digital media and grassroots engagements.

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None of this could have been possible without the generosity and dedication of our instructor, Dr. Makiko Hirata, and the incredible lineup of guest speakers who graciously shared their time, stories, and wisdom with us. They instilled in us empathy, bravery, tenacity, and a deep responsibility to care for our people and planet; I now see myself and my peers as visionaries, each with our own unique background and goals.

I thank Stanford e-Entrepreneurship Japan for teaching me that at the core of social entrepreneurship is community and humanity. One of our guest speakers, Ms. Megan Carroll, taught us a South African word that embodies this spirit: ubuntu—“I am because we are.”

Stanford e-Entrepreneurship Japan is one of several online courses offered by SPICE.

To stay updated on SPICE news, join our email list and follow us on Facebook, X, and Instagram.

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Let’s Be the Strikers: Thoughts on the 2025 Teenage Business Contest Japan

Millie Gan, an alum of Stanford e-Entrepreneurship Japan and founder of Teenage Business Contest Japan (TBCJ), reflects on building a platform that empowers teens to use entrepreneurship and innovation to revitalize Japan’s communities.
Let’s Be the Strikers: Thoughts on the 2025 Teenage Business Contest Japan
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Five Years of Impact: Celebrating the Stanford e-Entrepreneurship Japan Program

Alumni from across Japan gather in Tokyo to celebrate SeEJ’s milestone anniversary.
Five Years of Impact: Celebrating the Stanford e-Entrepreneurship Japan Program
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Erin Tsutsui in front of Tanah Lot, Bali, Indonesia | Photo credit: Erin Tsutsui
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High school student Erin Tsutsui, an alumna of Stanford e-Entrepreneurship Japan, reflects on forging friendships across Japan, embracing new world perspectives through thoughtful discussion, and transforming family heritage into a youth-led peace initiative via empathy and social innovation.

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David Meale, former U.S. diplomat and current consultant, offered a cautiously optimistic perspective on U.S.-China relations at an APARC China Program seminar, arguing that despite significant tensions, there remains substantial room for what he calls “managed rivalry”—a relationship that is neither warm nor easy, but constructive enough for both countries to serve their populations and address global challenges. Drawing on his 33 years in the U.S. Foreign Service, he traced the evolution of U.S.-China relations over the past three decades and assessed current trajectories, bringing both diplomatic experience and fresh insights from private sector concerns to his analysis.

Three Decades of Evolving Relations
 

His entry into China-focused diplomacy came in 1995 when he was assigned to Hong Kong during the handover. During that era and through the early 2000s, U.S. policy operated under the assumption that China would gradually embrace the post-war rules-based international order shaped largely by the United States. The thinking was that China would develop a self-interest in preserving this order, becoming a constructive, if not easy, partner. This belief undergirded the strong U.S. effort to bring China into the World Trade Organization in 2001.

During his service as an Economic Officer in Taiwan in the 2000s, Meale witnessed the merging of talent from Asia and the United States that built China’s electronics manufacturing industry. Five percent of Taiwan’s workforce had moved to the mainland; there were even Shanghainese dialect programs on Taiwanese television at night for those dreaming of seeking their fortunes through cross-strait opportunities. Although there was tension with the Chen Shui-bian administration, there was a surprising amount of positivity in Taiwan about the mainland. That, of course, has now changed.

The Obama administration continued to work within the framework of bringing China into the existing international order, even as concerns grew. The approach aimed to convince China to preserve and, if necessary, shape this order, while using it to constrain China when necessary, as demonstrated by the attempt to resolve the South China Sea dispute involving the Philippines through the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

The Trump administration marked a decisive shift. Meale noted that Trump openly discarded the goal of integrating China into the existing order, instead pursuing aggressive trade policies, technology restrictions, and explicit framing of China as a threat. The Chinese hoped the Biden administration would turn this around, but it instead maintained this posture, pursuing an “invest, align, compete” strategy—investing in the United States, aligning with allies, and defining the relationship as a competition.

Trump 2.0 brought “Liberation Day,” which Meale sees as the belief that the U.S. place in the world needs to be corrected; the United States is economically overextended, the trade imbalances and the associated debt cannot continue, and the supply chain vulnerability from COVID must be addressed. Tariffs were ratcheted up, and both sides imposed export controls. 

The Chinese hit back hard; Chinese officials are very proud of China’s pushback against an unchecked Trump. China’s economic growth is forecast at 5 percent this year, and the feeling from China is that it has shown the world the United States cannot push it around.

Looking ahead to 2026, Meale is optimistic. There will undoubtedly be crises that pop up: the Chinese will overreach on rare earth elements, and the United States will take an economic action that the Chinese did not plan on. Meale sees this as the “sine curve” of the U.S.-China relationship. There’s a crisis, tensions rise, there’s a response, and things eventually cool down. The curve goes up and down, but very little gets resolved.


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China's Current Challenges
 

China, Meale noted, effectively contains two economies: one serving approximately 400 million people who are producing world-class products with perhaps the world's best industrial ecosystem and impressive infrastructure, and another economy serving the rest of China's population, which has improved significantly over recent decades but relies heavily on informal work and the gig economy.
China faces deep structural problems, including a property sector crisis that has destroyed significant household wealth, an economy structured excessively around investment rather than consumption, youth unemployment reflecting a mismatch between graduating students and available jobs, and "involution" (neijuan, 内卷)—a race to the bottom in sectors where government incentives have driven overcapacity. China's reliance on export-led growth comes at a time when its overcapacity is increasingly unwelcome not just in developed countries but across the global South.

These challenges, Meale argues, will not result in a financial crisis or recession, but rather chronic headaches that will affect its foreign relations. Growth will continue, albeit at a slower pace, and the country will have significant work ahead to address inequality and structural imbalances.

On the question of Taiwan, Meale pushed back against predictions of imminent Chinese military action, particularly speculation about 2027 as a critical year tied to the 100th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army. He argued that, right now, one of China’s top goals is to avoid being drawn into a Taiwan conflict. China has recently purged nine senior military officials and is dealing with serious problems in its military. Five years from now, however, the situation could look quite different.

Defining End States and Finding Common Ground
 

Meale concluded by outlining what he believes each side seeks as an end state, arguing that these visions, while different, are not irreconcilable. Rather than global domination, he argued China seeks a world that works for what it calls "grand rejuvenation." This means overcoming the century of humiliation, reunifying with Taiwan, and living safely and securely on its own terms. China wants recognition as a global power, dominance in its near seas, freedom from technology containment, elimination of shipping chokepoints, access to markets, and the ability to pursue relationships with ideologically aligned countries.

The United States, meanwhile, accepts that competition with China is permanent but seeks a predictable China. U.S. goals include protecting advanced technology where it has an advantage, avoiding supply chain vulnerabilities, shaping Beijing's choices without attempting to control them, maintaining the Taiwan status quo until it evolves in a mutually and naturally agreed way, and ensuring fair trade to address what it sees as a stacked deck in current trade relationships. The United States also wants to prevent China from enabling adversaries, as seen in Chinese firms rebuilding Russia's military-industrial complex while maintaining nominal neutrality on Ukraine.

These end states, Meale acknowledged, collide in many ways but not in absolute ways. He sees substantial room for leader-driven, managed rivalry that can function constructively. This rivalry will not be easy or warm, but it can allow both countries to serve their populations while cooperating where global interests align.
 

Key Takeaways  
 

  • The “integrated China” assumption is over. U.S. policy no longer aims to bring China into the existing international order, marking a fundamental shift from decades of engagement strategy.
  • China's economy faces structural challenges, not a crisis. China will continue to grow, but must address inequality, overcapacity, and wealth destruction from the property crisis.
  • Taiwan timing matters more to Beijing than deadlines. China seeks to control when and how the Taiwan issue is resolved, preferring not to be forced into premature action.
  • Managed rivalry is possible. Despite significant tensions and incompatible elements of each side's goals, there remains space for constructive competition. While the relationship between the world's two largest economies will stay competitive and often contentious, it need not become catastrophic.
     

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Eurasia Group’s David Meale, a former Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, reflects on the last 30 years and describes how the two economic superpowers can maintain an uneasy coexistence.

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On December 4, 2025, Nate Persily, the James B. McClatchy Professor of Law at Stanford Law School and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, spoke about election administration in the United States during a CDDRL research seminar. Persily discussed revelations from the 2024 election and how the 2024 election can forecast the upcoming 2026 midterm election cycle. 

Persily started his talk by sharing the “Election Administrator’s Prayer”— "Oh God, whatever happens, please don't let it be close" — as close elections expose the “fragile underbelly” of the election administration system, like the 2024 election. Roughly 230,000 votes in key swing states ultimately determined Donald Trump’s Electoral College victory of 312 votes to Kamala Harris’ 226. 

Persily situated the 2024 results within the broader political trends. Traditional political science predictors — public evaluations of the incumbent administration and economic perceptions — pointed toward a Trump victory. At the same time, public confidence in the electoral system shifted. Republicans’ confidence in the national vote increased markedly compared to 2020, while Democrats’ confidence declined — a reversal Persily described as a “sore-loser” pattern, but a decline that saw greater change with Democrats than in past years. 

Persily narrowed in on the act of voting itself, and firstly covered vote-by-mail. He emphasized that vote-by-mail has a smaller partisan gap than might be assumed: states as ideologically diverse as Utah, California, and Washington rely heavily on all-mail voting. Nationwide, only about 34 percent of voters cast ballots on Election Day, reflecting a long-term move toward early in-person and mail voting. Persily emphasized that these categories themselves are increasingly fluid — voters may receive a mail ballot but choose to drop it off in person, complicating simple partisan narratives about “mail voters” versus “in-person voters.”

In 2024, states sent 67 million ballots to voters, and 72 percent were returned. About 1.2 million mail ballots were rejected, primarily due to missing or mismatched signatures — an issue concentrated among younger voters with inconsistent signatures and older voters experiencing age-related variation. Persily identified signature verification as a potential spot for further controversy, given its susceptibility to litigation, partisan pressure, and administrative inconsistency. In-person voting, by contrast, saw few changes from 2020. Approximately 1.7 million provisional ballots were cast, with 74 percent ultimately counted. 

Notably, several anticipated threats to the 2024 election did not materialize. Despite widespread discussion about AI-generated disinformation, deepfakes largely appeared in satirical contexts with little evidence of voter confusion. Fears of widespread voter suppression, election-related violence, and breakdowns in certification procedures were also less present than expected.

Persily highlighted several emerging risks that might impact the 2026 election cycle. Firstly, efforts to target overseas ballots for active military and overseas citizens (UOCAVA), particularly in Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, have increased, as have general efforts to review and purge voter rolls, signaling a growing interest in using administrative disputes to challenge ballot eligibility. 

Another concern was the over 227 bomb threats made against polling places and election offices, which led a few polling places to temporarily close or extend hours. The concern here is not necessarily the explosives themselves, as no explosives were found. Rather, Persily warned that voters might not go to the polls for fear of violence.

Other challenges included wide variation in county-level rules for curing mail ballots, particularly in Pennsylvania, where some counties offer robust curing opportunities, and others offer none — raising equal-protection concerns reminiscent of Bush v. Gore. Persistent state-level differences in counting speed, with California as the slowest, create openings for misinformation about “late-counted” ballots. Election-official turnover continues to rise, leaving many jurisdictions with less experienced administrators heading into 2026.

Persily then turned to new sources of pressure. A recent executive order requiring documentary proof of citizenship — paired with DHS review of state voter lists — could impose significant burdens, as many U.S. citizens lack passports or have name discrepancies with their documentation. On Truth Social, President Trump has also floated eliminating mail voting entirely and even ending the use of voting machines. Since May 2024, the Department of Justice has requested voter-registration databases from at least 21 states, heightening tensions over data privacy and federal authority. Persily raised concerns about the potential deployment of federal troops or ICE at polling places, noting that such actions are illegal but still feared. 

Persily lastly outlined what he called a “nuclear option.” A constitutional loophole allows Congress’s ability to refuse to seat duly elected members on the basis of qualifications, which then proceeds to a vote to seat a new member. This loophole, if used, could result in back-and-forth objections where no one is able to claim their seat. 

Persily emphasized the need for states to commit resources to speeding up mail-ballot counting, for courts to resolve executive-order challenges before the 2026 cycle begins, for early in-person voting to be encouraged, and for the House to articulate rules about objections to member seating well before November 2026. Ultimately, Persily argued that although most Americans will experience the 2026 elections as the same as elections in past years, states with competitive congressional districts may feel the strain. 

Persily ended by saying the present tension in our voting systems does not favor centralization, and perhaps, federalism is our friend at this current moment. 

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Nate Persily presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on December 4, 2025.
Nate Persily presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on December 4, 2025. | Nora Sulots
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In a CDDRL research seminar, Nate Persily, the James B. McClatchy Professor of Law at Stanford Law School and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, discussed revelations from the 2024 election and how the 2024 election can forecast the upcoming 2026 midterm election cycle.

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COVID-19 temperature testing in China.

The COVID-19 crisis was a profound stress test for health, economic, and governance systems worldwide, and its lessons remain urgent. The pandemic revealed that unpreparedness carries cascading consequences, including the collapse of health services, the reversal of development gains, and the destabilization of economies. The magnitude of global losses, measured in trillions of dollars and millions of lives, demonstrated that preparedness is not a discretionary expense but a foundation of macroeconomic stability. Countries that invested early in surveillance, resilient systems, and inclusive access managed to contain shocks and recover faster, proving that health security and economic security are inseparable.

For the Asia-Pacific, the path forward lies in transforming vulnerability into long-term resilience. Building pandemic readiness requires embedding preparedness within fiscal and development planning, not as an emergency measure but as a permanent policy function. The region’s diverse economies can draw on collective strengths in manufacturing capacity, technological innovation, and strong regional cooperation to institutionalize the four pillars— globally networked surveillance and research, a resilient national system, an equitable supply of medical countermeasures and tools, and global governance and financing—thereby maximizing pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response. Achieving this will depend on sustained political will and predictable financing, supported by the catalytic role of multilateral development banks and international financial institutions that can align public investment with global standards and private capital.

The coming decade presents a narrow but decisive window to consolidate these gains. Climate change, urbanization, and ecological disruption are intensifying the probability of new zoonotic spillovers. Meeting this challenge demands a shift from episodic response to continuous readiness, from isolated health interventions to integrated systems that link health, the environment, and the economy. Strengthening regional solidarity, transparency, and mutual accountability will be vital in ensuring that no country is left exposed when the next threat emerges.

A pandemic-ready Asia-Pacific is not an aspiration but an imperative. The lessons of COVID-19 call for institutionalized preparedness that transcends political cycles and emergency budgets. By treating health resilience as a global public good, the region can turn its experience of crisis into a model of sustained, inclusive security for the world.

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Building a Pandemic-Ready Asia-Pacific

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Associate Director of the Capstone Program, Political Science
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Simone Paci is a lecturer in Political Science at Stanford University. His research focuses on political economy across public policy domains. His three main areas of interest include taxation, AI, and gender politics.

Simone's research has been published in the American Journal of Political Science, PS: Political Science & Politics, the UN WIDER Working Paper Series, and the Journal of Interdisciplinary History.

Before Stanford, Simone held a Postdoctoral Research Associate position at Princeton University. Simone received a PhD in Political Science from Columbia University and a BA in Political Science and Economics from Yale University.

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Applications are now open for the Spring 2026 session of the Stanford University Scholars Program for Japanese High School Students (also known as “Stanford e-Japan”). The course will run from February 9 through June 30, 2026, with an application deadline of December 31, 2025.

Stanford e-Japan
Spring 2026 session (February 9 to June 30, 2026)
Application period: November 15 to December 31, 2025

All applications must be submitted at https://spicestanford.smapply.io/prog/stanford_e-japan/ via the SurveyMonkey Apply platform. Applicants and recommenders will need to create a SurveyMonkey Apply account to proceed. Students who are interested in applying to the online course are encouraged to begin their applications early.

Accepted applicants will engage in an intensive study of U.S. society and culture and U.S.–Japan relations. Government officials, leading scholars, and experts from Stanford University and across the United States will provide web-based lectures and engage students in live discussion sessions.

Stanford e-Japan is offered by the Stanford Program on International and Cross-Cultural Education (SPICE), Stanford University. Stanford e-Japan is generously supported by the Yanai Tadashi Foundation, Tokyo, Japan.

For more information about Stanford e-Japan, please visit stanfordejapan.org.


Stanford e-Japan is one of several online courses for high school students offered by SPICE, including the Reischauer Scholars Program, the China Scholars Program, the Sejong Korea Scholars Program, Stanford e-China, Stanford e-Entrepreneurship Japan, Stanford e-Entrepreneurship U.S., as well as numerous local student programs in Japan.

To stay informed of news about Stanford e-Japan and SPICE’s other student programs, join our email list or follow us on Facebook, Instagram, and X.

 

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Interested students must apply by December 31, 2025.

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Larry Diamond
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As we gather here to celebrate freedom and to recommit ourselves to the democratic cause, we face a powerful authoritarian tide. The remarkable third wave of global democratization ran out of steam two decades ago. Since then, many countries have fallen under the spell of illiberal and even authoritarian populism. Anti-establishment parties have swept into power promising to elevate “the people” over corrupt ruling elites and decrepit institutions, only to betray them more deeply through corruption and abuse of power. These include not just emerging-market democracies like Venezuela and Turkey but wealthier democracies in Europe and the United States, whose stability as liberal democracies we took for granted. 

In this global trend away from freedom, authoritarian populists have implemented a common playbook to polarize politics, punish independent media and civil society, undermine judicial independence, purge neutral watchdog institutions, politicize the civil service and security apparatus, and weaponize the state to persecute critics and opponents.

Once this authoritarian project settles into power, truth decays, the rule of law crumbles, fear sets in, and submission becomes the norm. Moreover, authoritarian populists draw from one another — and from powerful autocracies like Russia and China — the narrative arguments, political techniques, resource flows, and technological tools to accelerate their bids for hegemony.
 


The longer these authoritarian parties are in power, the more they eviscerate democratic institutions. But they are not invincible or irreversible.
Larry Diamond
Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy, FSI


The longer these authoritarian parties are in power, the more they eviscerate democratic institutions. But they are not invincible or irreversible. Incipient authoritarianism has been turned back in countries as diverse as Brazil, Poland, Sri Lanka, and Senegal. The slide away from liberal democracy has been reversed recently in Botswana and Mauritius. An executive coup against democracy was defeated in South Korea. Young people in Bangladesh overthrew a dictator last year in a remarkable upsurge of protest. And the longstanding autocracies in Venezuela and Turkey are looking increasingly desperate and unpopular. These examples bear lessons we must learn and promote if we are to ignite — as we surely can — a new era of democratic progress.

First, we must study what it takes to defeat autocrats at the ballot box. Typically, electoral battles are not a straight contrast between democracy and autocracy. Voters weigh their circumstances of life as well. Fortunately, autocrats have other failings besides their corruption, lawlessness, and abuse of power: sooner or later, they fail to deliver on their material promises. Successful democratic campaigns target the populists’ hypocrisy and address not just people’s political rights but their economic and social needs. 

To defeat autocrats, democratic forces must offer specific, credible plans to meet the core policy challenges of economic growth and distribution, fairness and inclusion, education, health care, infrastructure, public safety, and national security. 

But people everywhere also need a vision of what constitutes a good and just form of government. Here, democracies have dropped the ball in making the case FOR democracy as the best form of government. Decades ago, as they fought dictatorships and then came to power, democracies taught their young people the values, ideas, and history of democracy. But as new democracies stabilized, the existence of a democratic culture came to be assumed, and countries forgot the terrible price they paid under dictatorship — the fear, falsehoods, powerlessness, and repression, the lack of accountability, voice, justice, and human dignity. We can make the practical case for democracy — it performs better over time. But we cannot pin the argument on performance, which may fail at specific points in time.
 


Ultimately, the case for democracy is that being able to speak truth to power, to hold it accountable, and to change those who exercise it is a core element of human dignity and a basic human right.
Larry Diamond
Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy, FSI


Ultimately, the case for democracy is that being able to speak truth to power, to hold it accountable, and to change those who exercise it is a core element of human dignity and a basic human right. The freedoms to speak, publish, pray, organize, and assemble are inalienable human rights. As are the rights to a fair and impartial trial and to have all citizens be treated equally under the law. It is only democracy — never autocracy — that protects these rights and treats citizens with dignity by investing sovereignty in them, not some self-appointed minority. Liberty and democracy are intertwined.

We must make these points relentlessly, creatively, and convincingly, not just in the schools, at successively higher levels of instruction and deliberation, but through the social media platforms where people live their information lives. Russia, China, Iran, and other autocracies wage extensive propaganda campaigns to trash liberal values and institutions. They portray democracy as lacking in dynamism, capacity, and masculine strength. These arguments are false, offensive, and degrading to the human spirit. But they will not fail of their own accord. They need to be defeated by better, more inspiring arguments and narratives about why people need freedom to thrive, and why societies need democracy to have freedom.

Today, there are four arenas of struggle for the future of freedom, and democrats must prevail in all of them. The core battle is now in the countries that have been sliding back from democracy to autocracy. 


In almost every instance where authoritarian projects have been defeated, it has been through elections. Illiberal populists crave the legitimacy that comes from victory in multiparty elections. But corruption and misrule erode their electoral support. So, they need elections that are competitive enough to validate their claim to rule but rigged enough to minimize the risk of defeat. The pathway to restoring democracy is to seize the electoral opportunity, flood the zone with election workers and observers, and wage an effective campaign so that people who have grown weary of authoritarian abuse can defeat it at the ballot box.

To win, democrats must forge a unified coalition across factional and ideological divides. They must offer concrete policy ideas to improve people’s lives. They need a narrative about what has happened to justice and democracy, and why restoring these will help to make the country great again. A campaign is not a legal brief. It must inspire and excite. It requires strong, compelling leadership. It must engage diverse sections of society, including people who once supported the authoritarian populists but are now disillusioned. Democrats must also express patriotism and show that illiberal populists wave a false flag. Democrats are the truer patriots because they recognize democracy and liberty as pillars of national greatness.

These lessons can help to restore democracy where it has been lost and to secure it in a second arena, when it is under challenge from authoritarian populist parties. But there are two other arenas of struggle in which we must prevail. Globally, democrats cannot let the world’s powerful authoritarian states capture and hollow out the global institutions to defend freedom — the UN Human Rights Council, the international and regional instruments of electoral observation and assistance, and the rules that govern the flows of data and information. Neither can we shrink from the global battle to support democratic values and free flows of information, and to lend technical and financial support to peoples, parties, media, and movements around the world struggling for freedom. 

In the face of isolationist efforts to defund and withdraw from this cause, we must convince democratic publics that we can only secure our own freedom by supporting that of others. A more democratic world will be a safer, fairer, less corrupt, more peaceful, and prosperous world.
 


There is no more urgent priority than to give the Ukrainian people the weapons, resources, and economic sanctions to defeat Russian aggression. Similarly, we must ensure that Taiwan’s democracy does not suffer the same aggression from the People’s Republic of China.
Larry Diamond
Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy, FSI


All of that has been under existential challenge in Ukraine since Russia’s brutal invasion in February of 2022. Resisting aggression is the fourth arena of struggle. There is no more urgent priority than to give the Ukrainian people the weapons, resources, and economic sanctions to defeat Russian aggression. Similarly, we must ensure that Taiwan’s democracy does not suffer the same aggression from the People’s Republic of China. Taiwan must have the weapons, trade, and international dignity it needs to survive. We must preserve the status quo across the strait by making clear that the US and other democracies stand behind the resolve of a free people to chart their own destiny in Taiwan — as we do in Ukraine.

We meet here today just a short distance from the grotesque wall that stood for decades as the dividing line between freedom and tyranny. 36 years ago — almost to this day — the wall was torn down. Few imagined it would happen when it did. But it did because of democratic conviction and resolve. Now, we are in a new cold war with global authoritarianism. The history of Berlin should constantly remind us that freedom is fragile, but it can also be resilient. We must never lose faith in the rightness of our cause and the obligation we bear once again to defend freedom in an hour of peril.

Professor Diamond delivered this speech at the Berlin Freedom Conference on November 10, 2025.

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Larry Diamond delivered remarks to the Berlin Freedom Conference on November 10, 2025.
Larry Diamond delivered remarks to the Berlin Freedom Conference on November 10, 2025. | Courtesy of Democracy Without Borders
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Professor Larry Diamond's remarks to the Berlin Freedom Conference, November 10, 2025.

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