Grandparents have an endearing position of high stature in Mexican culture. Grandchildren have countless stories about the cariño (endearment) they receive from Abuelito (Grandpa) and Abuelita (Grandma). My immigrant grandparents sacrificed a lot when they migrated to the United States. Their courageous journeys and perseverance to attain the American dream left an invaluable mark on me. My abuelito’s journey to the United States initially on the Bracero Program led me to conduct research on the program. The Bracero Program was a binational labor agreement between the United States and Mexico that was in effect from 1942 to 1964. It was established due to the labor shortage brought about by World War II. Thousands of Mexican men were recruited and joined the program to work primarily in agriculture in states like California.

It was my abuelito’s cariño, work ethic, and courage as an immigrant that I have never forgotten. My abuelito worked in the highlands of Jalisco, Mexico, where his skilled farm labor contributed to making the highlands of Jalisco productive for the cultivation of agave. Thousands of the region’s men—including my abuelito—joined the Bracero Program and left Mexico for the United States. Once in the United States, they worked in the agricultural industry and transformed it into the multibillion-dollar business that it is today.

In my research, I have had the chance to interview members of the family of Rafael Silva, who was also a bracero from Jalisco. One of his grandsons, Isa Silva, will be entering Stanford next fall as a recruit for the Stanford Men’s Basketball team. I recently had the chance to talk with Isa and reflect upon the legacy of his abuelito and mine. The work that they performed was brutal, often working with the short-handled hoe for long periods. Reflecting on his abuelito’s contribution to making the Salinas Valley into the “Salad Bowl of the World,” Isa noted, “My grandparents’ immigrant journey and hard work means everything to me. It’s one thing that motivates me and inspires me. I respect the generations before me and am forever grateful for their sacrifices. Because of my grandparents and parents, I work hard in the classroom and it has taught me to give back.”

After the Bracero Program formally ended in 1964, agricultural executives sponsored thousands of braceros like Rafael Silva to stay in California. Not only had the braceros’ lives been transformed from rural poverty in Mexico to making working-class earnings, but their hard work would also eventually transform the lives of their children and grandchildren like Isa. Considered the “Ellis Island” for many Mexican immigrants, the U.S.–Mexico border became an important migration corridor for thousands wanting to find work in the agricultural fields in places like the Salinas Valley. For many young braceros, their earnings provided them with the hope of one day marrying and starting a family. For Rafael Silva, that hope became a reality when he married Eva Silva Ruelas and they settled near the U.S.–Mexico border in San Luis, Sonora, Mexico. While Rafael worked in the agricultural fields in Arizona, Eva and her young children resided in San Luis. Eventually they were able to move together to the Salinas Valley where Rafael continued working in the agricultural fields and Eva worked at the Matsui Nursery, a company founded by Andy Matsui, an immigrant from Japan.

My research has uncovered numerous stories of braceros like Rafael Silva overcoming poverty. Among children and grandchildren of braceros are professors at U.C. Berkeley and Stanford, members of the U.S. Congress and California legislature, as well as successful entrepreneurs, attorneys, educators, physicians, and a former NASA astronaut. Despite these successes, braceros themselves have received little recognition. With this in mind, I decided to organize an event with SPICE to honor braceros, with hopes that it would also make an indelible impression on a Mexican American generation whose bracero fathers or grandfathers had made major contributions to the U.S. economy. They, too, were part of America’s “Greatest Generation.”

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A team of SHP faculty and researchers, together with Stanford Medicine graduate and medical students and in collaboration with colleagues at CIDE in Mexico, have launched a modeling framework to investigate the epidemiology of COVID-19 and to support pro-active resource planning and policy evaluations for diverse populations and geographies — including California, Mexico and India.

The Stanford-CIDE Coronavirus Simulation Model — or SC-COSMO — incorporates realistic demography and patterns of contacts sufficient for transmission of the virus that has infected more than 2 million people worldwide and claimed more than 125,600 lives, according to the widely used Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map which is updated several times a day.

The SC-COSMO model also incorporates non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing, timing and effects on reductions in contacts which may differ by demography.

Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert, an associate professor of medicine at Stanford Health Policy, is the principal investigator of the project, along with Fernando Alarid-Escudero, an assistant professor at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE) in Mexico and Jason Andrews, an assistant professor of medicine (infectious diseases) at Stanford Medicine. Other SHP faculty among the 20 investigators and staff members who are working on the project are Joshua Salomon and David Studdert, both professors of medicine.

The SC-COSMO team is a multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional team including expertise and experience in infectious disease, epidemiology, mathematical modeling and simulation, statistics, decision science, health policy, health law and health economics.

“As COVID-19 transmission occurs throughout the world’s diverse populations, it is critical to efficiently model and forecast its future spread between and within these populations and to appropriately reflect uncertainty in modeled outcomes,” Goldhaber-Fiebert said. “Doing so supports timely resource planning and decision making between potentially appropriate and effective interventions that balance the trade-offs they embody.”

The team is currently working on three projects:

1. The researchers are providing California with county-level COVID-19 estimates for such things as the number of infections, detected cases and projections of future needs for hospital and ICU beds, personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators.
2. The project is working on potential strategies to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico by focusing on three specific objectives: collecting, synthesizing and openly sharing the most relevant and useful data; accelerating the development of the SC-COSMO model and its adaptation to the Mexican situation; and identifying a set of mitigation strategies, comparing the health and economic consequences in the population in the medium and long term.
3. They are developing forecast models of the COVID-19 epidemic in India with the Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence and its Indian government partners, providing a rapid response to urgent needs for planning and resource allocation.