The executive summary from the sixth Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum, held June 2011 at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, is now available.

When the semiannual Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum convened in Seoul in late 2010, North Korea had just attacked South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island and revealed to American experts its work on a nuclear enrichment facility. These events capped a year that also witnessed the alleged sinking by North Korea of the South Korean naval vessel Cheonan and telling signs of succession preparations underway in North Korea. There have been no major incidents in recent months, but these events and the uncertainty they engendered weigh heavily in the minds of Korea observers and officials in South Korea and the United States.

Views on North Korea’s intentions and domestic political situation are mixed, as are voices on the appropriate U.S. and South Korean response to the events of 2010. These issues fit within a greater discussion of the U.S.-South Korea alliance and the Northeast Asia region wherein China plays a major economic and political role. The most recent Forum, held June 2011 at the Walter. H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC), provided an arena for informed, policy-oriented discussion of major peninsular and regional issues impacting South Korea and the United States.

Twenty subject experts and former senior officials from the United States and South Korea gathered at Stanford University on June 8 for an exchange of views. Amidst a diversity of opinions, collectively the participants expressed a wish for regional stability and the continued need for a strong U.S.-South Korea alliance in order to achieve it. The full executive report of this sixth session of the Forum is now available online, and includes discussion of:

• The current state of North Korea’s nuclear program and possible scenarios for reducing the risk of proliferation
• North Korea’s 2010 military actions and increasingly strong rhetoric toward South Korea since, especially in relation to its domestic political situation and the impending succession
• China’s response to North Korea last year and the complex relationship between the two countries, including Kim Jong Il’s frequent recent visits to China
• Northeast Asian regional cooperation with a focus on the South Korean-Chinese-Japanese leaders’ summit
• The factor of U.S., South Korean, and Chinese domestic politics in shaping policy toward North Korea, and the upcoming U.S. and South Korean elections
• The U.S. security role on the Korean Peninsula and in greater Northeast Asia

The Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum was established in 2006 by Shorenstein APARC to serve as an ongoing forum for the exchange of views on issues of significance to the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Co-sponsored with the Sejong Institute, a leading South Korean think tank, the Forum alternates between Stanford and Seoul. Summaries and agendas from past Forums are available on the Shorenstein APARC website.

Stanford University's Korean Studies Program (KSP) looks forward to welcoming its Koret and Pantech Fellows for the 2011-2012 academic year. Joon-woo Park, a former senior diplomat from Korea with over thirty years of foreign policy experience, will arrive in September to serve as the program's Koret Fellow. While at Stanford, he will conduct research on South Korean foreign policy, including increased U.S.-Korean collaboration on China and prospects for East Asian regional integration based on the European Union model. Katharina Zellweger, currently residing in Pyongyang as the North Korea country director for the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, will join KSP in November as the Pantech Fellow. She is a Swiss national who has spent over fifteen years conducting humanitarian work in North Korea. Her research will explore how aid intervention can stimulate positive sustainable change in that country. The Koret Foundation of San Francisco and the Pantech Company and Curitel Communications (known as the Pantech Group) of Korea generously fund these fellowships.

Stanford University's Korean Studies Program (KSP) looks forward to welcoming its Koret and Pantech Fellows for the 2011-2012 academic year. Joon-woo Park, a former senior diplomat from Korea with over thirty years of foreign policy experience, will arrive in September to serve as the program's Koret Fellow. While at Stanford, he will conduct research on South Korean foreign policy, including increased U.S.-Korean collaboration on China and prospects for East Asian regional integration based on the European Union model. Katharina Zellweger, currently residing in Pyongyang as the North Korea country director for the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, will join KSP in November as the Pantech Fellow. She is a Swiss national who has spent over fifteen years conducting humanitarian work in North Korea. Her research will explore how aid intervention can stimulate positive sustainable change in that country. The Koret Foundation of San Francisco and the Pantech Company and Curitel Communications (known as the Pantech Group) of Korea generously fund these fellowships.

The Korean Studies Program (KSP) at Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) announces that Katharina Zellweger, currently the North Korea country director for the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), will be the program’s 2011–2012 Pantech Fellow.

Zellweger joins KSP this November after five years of living in Pyongyang, where she works side-by-side with a large North Korean staff on aid and development projects. Through her SDC and earlier work, she has witnessed modest economic and social changes not visible to most North Korea observers. Her research at Shorenstein APARC will draw on her over fifteen years of humanitarian work in North Korea and explore how aid intervention can stimulate positive sustainable change there.

While heading SDC’s Pyongyang office, Zellweger has focused on sustainable agricultural production and income generation projects. She is well versed in observing and reporting on political, social, and economic trends and developments. As the Swiss government’s top official living in North Korea, Zellweger also represents her country at official meetings with North Korean leaders when the Swiss ambassador, who resides in Beijing, is unavailable.

Prior to joining the SDC, Zellweger worked for nearly thirty years at the Caritas Internationalis office in Hong Kong, the center of its international activities. She organized and led aid and development projects related to North Korea for ten years there. Her work included collaborating with the media to generate national and international awareness about North Korean humanitarian issues.

Zellweger holds an MA in international administration from the School of International Training in Brattleboro, Vermont, and a Swiss diploma in trade, commerce, and business administration. She also apprenticed with Switzerland’s national agricultural management program.

In 2006, the Vatican named Zellweger as a Dame of St. Gregory the Great, and in 2005 South Korea’s Tji Hak-soon Justice and Peace Foundation honored her with its annual award. She is an active member of the International Women’s Forum and of the Kadoorie Charitable Trust.

“No one in the world has more experience than Director Zellweger in dealing with North Korean humanitarian and development issues,” says KSP director Gi-Wook Shin. “We are delighted that she will join us to reflect on and teach about her experiences and insights gained over a lifetime of work in that troubled country.”

Established in 2004, the Pantech Fellowship for Mid-Career Professionals, generously funded by Pantech Co., Ltd., and Curitel Communications, Inc. (known as the Pantech Group), is intended to cultivate a diverse international community of scholars and professionals committed to and capable of grappling with challenges posed by developments in Korea.

Responding to warnings about severe food scarcity in North Korea, on May 31, the United States sent its first official envoy to North Korea since 2009. U.S. government food assistance to North Korea ended due to concerns that some of it actually ended up feeding the military. "It's very hard for the administration not to respond," says David Straub, associate director of the Stanford Korean Studies Program, who suggests however that it does not change the U.S. position on North Korea's nuclear program.

Stanford Korean Studies Program associate director David Straub was interviewed April 14 for KEMS TV on his observations and experiences in thirty-plus years of working on Korean affairs for the U.S. Department of State and at Stanford University, including his views on North Korea policy.

A year has passed since the South Korean warship Cheonan sank into the depths of the Yellow Sea, an event attributed to an attack from North Korea and one that rekindled afresh the ongoing tensions between South and North. In that time, Pyongyang has transmitted confusing signals to the world about the strength of its leadership and its intentions toward South Korea, including publishing photos of a steely but frail-looking Kim Jong Il alongside his young heir apparent Kim Jong Un and unexpectedly attacking Yeonpyong Island in late November. It is clear that the Kim Jong Il regime still maintains strong control over its citizens and that the country's nuclear program continues to grow. Nevertheless, there are hints of instability and signs of information from the outside world trickling into North Korea that point to coming change.

During an April 21 television interview, visiting fellow Sang-Hun Choe, an International Herald Tribune journalist with many years of experience reporting on North Korea, addressed the complexity of the country's current political situation, noting the lack of firsthand information and the mixture of fear and genuine belief motivating adherence to the longstanding official party line. Choe emphasized the importance for the countries most closely tied to North Korean political developments—especially South Korea, the United States, and China—to consider the key questions regarding the future of North Korea, including what shape a transfer of power or a regime collapse could take.

Media coverage of North Korea

Reporting on North Korea is no simple matter, due in large part to the government's tight control on the flow of information in and out of the country. "North Korea is so closed that it is almost impossible for journalists to gather firsthand information," stresses Choe. Television and radio broadcasts and the internet are closely monitored in North Korea, and there is a recent move to confiscate mobile phones as they are smuggled into the country.

Choe suggests that a journalist's own interests and the political agenda of his or her country often shape the angle of their coverage of North Korea. For example, the U.S. media tends to focus on North Korean nuclear developments and the resumption of the Six Party Talks, a reflection of the official U.S. defense agenda. Reporting in South Korea is not quite as straightforward. "South Korea's relationship with North Korea is very complex," Choe states. While there is deep resentment toward North Korean attacks on the South, there is also a sense of shared Korean identity that influences South Korean news coverage of North Korea, he says.

Juche and the Kim family dynasty

Tapping into the deeply rooted sense of nationalism that emerged in Korea as a result of great power competition over the peninsula, North Korea's founder Kim Il Sung masterfully applied the principle of juche to found his family's political dynasty. "It [‘juche'] is very difficult to translate," says Choe. "One of the most common English translations is ‘self reliance,' but that does not really explain everything. It is more like ‘in our own way of living' or ‘in charge of our own fate.'"

North Korean citizens do not mindlessly follow the official party ideology, stresses Choe. Some people are motivated by fear of punishment, while others firmly believe in juche. "We have to take these two elements into account when we try to understand North Korea," he says. "There is fear, but there is also pride in their system. Whether you call it ‘brainwashing' or not, it is the reality."

Kim Jong Il's apparently failing health and heir Kim Jong Un's youth and lack of experience weigh heavily on the minds of political analysts. Photos suggest that Kim Jong Il is recovering from a stroke, a fact confirmed several months ago by the South Korean government. According to Choe, the key question now is how long Kim Jong Il will live. "[He] did not expect that he would have a stroke," he says, "so the transition [of power] is being prepared in a hurry." Kim Jong Il's own rise to power was gradual and he held numerous political positions over the years. Despite being made a military general in September, Kim Jong Un's political experience is comparatively limited.

Future concerns and possible scenarios

Despite uncertainties about the transfer of power in North Korea, recent reports suggest that the country continues to develop its nuclear program. In addition to the regional security concerns this poses, the nuclear accident in Japan this March raises environmental safety questions. For example, how would North Korea prepare for or respond to damage to a nuclear facility caused by a natural disaster? "Despite being a very technologically advanced country, Japan has still had a lot of difficulties dealing with its nuclear disaster," Choe emphasizes.

While North Korea's juche ideology continues to legitimize the Kim family dynasty, Choe suggests that the current system cannot last forever, especially with the country's ongoing food shortages and the significant regional economic and political developments of the past few decades. "If you look at Northeast Asia, all of the other former communist countries are more or less thriving by adopting market reforms/economies, and North Korea is left alone," he says. "It is a very poor, isolated country in a very well-to-do neighborhood of the world—it cannot last forever."

Choe downplays the possibility of an Egypt-style revolution in North Korea, but suggests that China, South Korea, and the United States should consider the potential scenarios for the future of North Korean politics. "The big question is when and how change will come," he states. "If the regime collapses, will there be some kind of power struggle between factions? Is China going to intervene?"

China does not necessarily support North Korea's political decisions, including its nuclear program and economic policies, Choe suggests, but the collapse of North Korea could lead to a mass exodus of refugees into its northeastern provinces. Furthermore, he says, "Another concern for China is what will happen on the Korean Peninsula if North Korea collapses. Is South Korea going to take over the northern half of the peninsula and create one unified Korea, or is America? China might not be happy to have a small, but well-to-do pro-America unified Korea right on its border . . . That explains its attitude seemingly ambiguous [toward North Korea.]"

It is certain that the current North Korean political situation is a very puzzling and complex one, with apparently more questions than answers at this time. As Choe suggests, it is most important now for the world—especially China, South Korea, and the United States—to examine the possible future issues and scenarios facing North Korea, and to identify the related key questions in an effort to prepare for the inevitable change that will one day come.

A full recording of Choe's interview is available online at the KEMS TV website (Korean language).

 

"As with the collapse of the Berlin Wall more than two decades ago, the reverberations of the 'Arab Awakening' are being felt well beyond the Middle East," said Asia Foundation president David D. Arnold during his May 4 talk at Stanford about the recent uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East. He suggested that for countries in Asia and other parts of the world, the uprisings are a reminder that a strong economy is not a replacement for good governance and that democracy can take place anywhere in the world. In Asia, the Asia Foundation blog, provides an overview of Arnold's talk supplemented by essays, including "Worlds at Stake in Arab Reform" by Southeast Asia Forum director Donald K. Emmerson and "The 'Libya Model' and What’s Next in North Korea" and "Springtimes of Political Reform: Looking to East Asia for Clues to Democratic Consolidation" by former Pantech Fellow Scott Snyder. The full audio of Arnold's Stanford talk is now available online.