Stanford University

CISAC scholars visit North Korea after nuclear test, report findings

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CISAC's John W. Lewis led a private delegation to North Korea Oct. 31 through Nov. 4 to talk with senior officials from the DPRK foreign ministry, nuclear industry, and key economic institutes. The delegation, which included Lewis, CISAC visiting professor Siegfried S. Hecker, CISAC visiting fellow Robert Carlin, and Jack Pritchard, president of the Korea Economic Institute in Washington, DC, visited the nation a few weeks after it tested a nuclear weapon and days after it announced it would return to the Six-Party Talks.

Hecker, Carlin and Pritchard presented their findings in a briefing, "Update from Pyongyang," organized by the Korea Economic Institute, at the National Press Club in Washington, DC.

Hecker presents findings on the nuclear program in Report on North Korean Nuclear Program.

NPR's evening news program All Things Considered, the Washington Post, the San Francisco Chronicle, and other news media reported on the group's discussions with officials in China and North Korea.

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Democratic Gridlock on Taiwan: Domestic Sources and External Implications

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This is a Special Seminar within the CDDRL Taiwan Democracy Program (co-sponsored with Shorenstein APARC).

Richard Bush is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Director of its Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies. The Center serves as a locus for research, analysis, and debate to enhance policy development on the pressing political, economic, and security issues facing Northeast Asia and U.S. interests in the region.

Bush came to Brookings in July 2002, after serving almost five years as the Chairman and Managing Director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), the mechanism through which the United States Government conducts substantive relations with Taiwan in the absence of diplomatic relations.

Dr. Bush began his professional career in 1977 with the China Council of The Asia Society. In July 1983 he became a staff consultant on the House Foreign Affairs Committee's Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs. In January 1993 he moved up to the full committee, where he worked on Asia issues and served as liaison with Democratic Members. In July 1995, he became National Intelligence Officer for East Asia and a member of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), which coordinates the analytic work of the intelligence committee. He left the NIC in September 1997 to become head of AIT.

Richard Bush received his undergraduate education at Lawrence University in Appleton, Wisconsin. He did his graduate work in political science at Columbia University, getting an M.A. in 1973 and his Ph.D. in 1978. He is the author of a number of articles on U.S. relations with China and Taiwan, and of At Cross Purposes, a book of essays on the history of America's relations with Taiwan.

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Richard C. Bush Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, and Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Speaker The Brookings Institution
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Nested Security Dilemmas and U.S. Policy in Asia

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Eric Heginbotham, a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, has joined the Pacific Council on International Policy, as a non-resident fellow focused on East Asian political and security issues. Among the projects he will carry out is a monograph on the triangular relationship among the United States, China and Japan. Heginbotham earlier served as a senior fellow of Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and has also been a visiting faculty member of Boston College's political science department. He speaks Japanese and Chinese and lived in Asia for more than 10 years. Heginbotham received a BA from Swarthmore College and a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He recently completed a book manuscript on civil-military relations in East Asia, Crossed Swords: Divided Militaries and Politics in East Asia, and has published articles on Japanese and Chinese foreign policy in Foreign Affairs, International Security, and the National Interest, as well as chapters in several edited books.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Eric Heginbotham Political Scientist, Center for Asia Pacific Policy at RAND Corporation;Non-Resident Fellow, Pacific Council on International Policy Speaker
Seminars

Impacts of ENSO Events on Chinese Rice Production and the World Rice Market

Climate shocks leading to floods and droughts present high levels of uncertainty and difficulties in decision making for water district managers, agricultural producers, and policymakers throughout the world. This project focuses on the impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on precipitation and temperature variability, and in turn on water management and crop production, in one of China's major rice bowls, Jiangxi Province. Jiangxi is also one of China's poorest provinces, where swings in crop production and prices can jeopardize rural incomes and food security.

Divided Memories and Reconciliation

There are two obstacles to understanding how historical memory about the wartime period has been formed in Northeast Asia. The first is the existence of persistent national myths about war memory—myths created within those nations and perceptions formed from the outside, and entrenched through the media and popular culture. The second obstacle is the lack of comparative context. The study of historical memory has, until recently, been focused almost entirely on Japan, without comparison to other principle actors in Asia such as China and Korea, or to the United States.

Development of Groundwater Markets in China: A Glimpse into Progress

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The overall goal of the paper is to better understand the development of groundwater markets in northern China. In particular, this paper focuses on the factors that determine the development of groundwater markets in the attempt to explain their "breadth" (the share of villages in which there are groundwater market activity) and "depth" (the share of water which the average tubewell owner sells to others on a market basis). Based on a survey of 24 randomly sampled villages and 50 randomly sampled tubewells in two provinces (Hebei and Henan Province) in 2001 and a field survey of 68 randomly sampled villages in 4 provinces (Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, and Shaanxi) of northern China in 2004, research results show that groundwater markets in northern China have emerged and are developing rapidly. Groundwater markets in northern China also are shown to be informal and localized and developing in a number of ways that make them appear somewhat similar to markets that are found in South Asia. However, groundwater markets in northern China also differ from those in South Asia in other ways, water sales in China are almost all impersonal and they almost always work on a spot-market, cash bases (that is, there is no price discrimination and there are no share or labor sharing arrangements as are sometimes found in South Asia). Econometric results show that the privatization of tubewells is one of the most important driving factors that encourage the development of groundwater markets. Increasing water and land scarcity and policy interventions also are important determinants that induce the development of groundwater markets.

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Scott Rozelle

Consumption of Dairy Products in Urban China

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Using urban survey data collected by the authors in 2001-2002, this paper analyzes demographics, cultural factors, and purchasing behaviors influencing the consumption of fresh milk, yogurt, ice cream, and powered milk in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, China. Results from estimation of a double-hurdle model of consumption show that income and marketing channels are the key determinants of milk consumption levels; however, education, advertising, and convenience play a more important role in consumption of other dairy products. There is some evidence that milk powder, as a consumer good, may be becoming an inferior product in urban China. Finally, the survey data suggest that the growing sophistication of Chinas retail sector is influencing consumption of dairy products.

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Scott Rozelle

A First Look at "Making IT: The Rise of Asia in High Tech"

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On Tuesday, November 14, the Stanford Project on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE) will be hosting a first look at Making IT: The Rise of Asia in High Tech.

Making IT is edited by Henry S. Rowen, Marguerite Gong Hancock and William F. Miller, and features findings by scholars from from the United States, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China and India.

As Stanford University Press publishes Making IT this November, we invite you to attend this first look and discussion among scholars, policymakers and industry leaders.

Schwab Center--Mid Vidalakis Dining Room

Henry S. Rowen

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FSI Senior Fellow Emeritus and Director-Emeritus, Shorenstein APARC
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Henry S. Rowen was a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a professor of public policy and management emeritus at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business, and a senior fellow emeritus of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). Rowen was an expert on international security, economic development, and high tech industries in the United States and Asia. His most current research focused on the rise of Asia in high technologies.

In 2004 and 2005, Rowen served on the Presidential Commission on the Intelligence of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. From 2001 to 2004, he served on the Secretary of Defense Policy Advisory Board. Rowen was assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs in the U.S. Department of Defense from 1989 to 1991. He was also chairman of the National Intelligence Council from 1981 to 1983. Rowen served as president of the RAND Corporation from 1967 to 1972, and was assistant director of the U.S. Bureau of the Budget from 1965 to 1966.

Rowen most recently co-edited Greater China's Quest for Innovation (Shorenstein APARC, 2008). He also co-edited Making IT: The Rise of Asia in High Tech (Stanford University Press, 2006) and The Silicon Valley Edge: A Habitat for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (2000). Rowen's other books include Prospects for Peace in South Asia (edited with Rafiq Dossani) and Behind East Asian Growth: The Political and Social Foundations of Prosperity (1998). Among his articles are "The Short March: China's Road to Democracy," in National Interest (1996); "Inchon in the Desert: My Rejected Plan," in National Interest (1995); and "The Tide underneath the 'Third Wave,'" in Journal of Democracy (1995).

Born in Boston in 1925, Rowen earned a bachelors degree in industrial management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1949 and a masters in economics from Oxford University in 1955.

Faculty Co-director Emeritus, SPRIE
Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
Henry S. Rowen Speaker
Richard Walker Senior Vice President Speaker Hewlett Packard Company
Daniel Quon Senior Vice President Speaker Silicon Valley Bank Global
Conferences

Smallholders and High Value Commodities in China

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In this report, we seek to meet the specific objectives of the first phase of China's study. The key goal of this study in China is to prepare evidence-based policy advice concerning the implications and opportunities for fruit producers during a period of a boom in horticulture demand and a restructuring of downstream markets and commercialization. Hence, the research in Phase 1 concentrates on identifying the determinants and consequences of restructuring of the horticulture sector in China. The analysis is conducted on three levels: macro (the policy issues and the national business environment), meso (the different chain segments and villages) and micro (household level). Because of space limitation and timing of the research the linkages between the first two levels are analysed in this report. The micro study will be carried out during the upcoming phase.

The research for this report is structured into two parts: a.) the national-meso level and b.) the local-meso level. In part 1 key policy issues, broad fruit supply chain issues and key stakeholders are identified. This part is intended to set the stage for the analysis done in part 2 and the forthcoming household study. The goal of part 1 is to analyze the evolution of China's restructured supply chain at a national level over a period of the past 10 or more years. With this background, the objective of part 2 is to study in more depth the restructuring changes that are occurring inside China's rural communities and within the markets. It also will provide context for the forthcoming micro-level study. In particular, we primarily study how marketing supply chains are operating and evolving within villages; inside wholesale markets and inside supermarkets.

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Scott Rozelle

CDDRL brings Republic of China (Taiwan) foreign minister to Stanford

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Eric Chen-hua Yu
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James C. F. Huang, minister of foreign affairs of the Republic of China (Taiwan), addressed Stanford faculty, students, and Democratization in Greater China conference participants on October 20. In conversation with Larry Diamond, coordinator of CDDRL's democracy program, Huang discussed Taiwan's relations with the U.S., the progress of democracy in Taiwan and China, and regional issues and tensions in light of the North Korea nuclear test.

Before being named foreign minister, Huang served as deputy secretary-general (2004-05) and director-general of the Department of Foreign Affairs at the Office of the President (2002-04). He also served as deputy director-general (2001-02) of the Department of Information and as liaison and senior researcher (2000-01) at Mainland Affairs Council of Executive Yuan.

This special event was coordinated by CDDRL's The Taiwan Democracy Project.

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