Summit: right idea at wrong time?
The opportunity to engage Kim Jong-il, the leader of the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK), in serious dialogue is inherently attractive. A face-to-face meeting with Kim has the potential to break through a fog of misperception and mistrust.
Given the nature of the DPRK system, the key decisions can only be made at the very top of the pyramid of power. One summit encounter is therefore potentially more valuable then scores of ministerial meetings or talks among senior officials.
These opportunities have unfortunately been extremely rare. Despite some 35 years of intermittent dialogue going back to the South-North talks held in 1972, this would mark only the second time the top leaders of divided Korea have met each other.
The hope for momentum created by the historic meeting of President Kim Dae-jung with Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang in June 2000 swiftly dissipated, disappointing many Koreans.
This may appear to be the right moment to restore the impetus to the North-South summitry. Since the 2000 summit, the process of engagement between the Koreas has deepened dramatically, ranging from extended contacts among officials to the flow of tourists, at least from the South to the North, across the border.
Economic exchanges are widespread, from the Gaeseong industrial park to a growing trade in goods. And the six-party talks to reach an agreement to dismantle the DPRK's nuclear program are at least moving forward, in large part due to the resumption of direct diplomatic negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington.
There are serious reasons, however, to question whether this is the right time for a second inter-Korean summit.
First and foremost, President Roh Moo-hyun is, in every sense of the word, a lame duck. When the summit was scheduled to take place, it was less than three months until the presidential election.
The election campaign is unusually uncertain, with the ruling party and its allies still in the process of selecting their nominee. Polls indicate that a change in leadership --bringing the opposition Grand National Party to power -- is very possible.
While he remains in office, President Roh has every right to exercise his authority and leadership. But given the political uncertainties, and the vital nature of inter-Korean relations, it would seem imperative to secure bipartisan support not only for the summit but also for the policy outcome.
For any gains to be meaningful, there should be some assurance that these policies will continue in place whomever succeeds as president.
Without that broad support, charges that the summit meeting is motivated more by domestic political considerations gain credence.
Even worse, Pyongyang's decision to agree to hold the summit may also be a crude attempt on its part to try to influence the ROK election in favor of the progressive camp. Even if these charges are not true, they undermine the value that this summit may have to shape a long-term future for the peninsula.
The timing of the summit is also problematic because the nuclear negotiations with the DPRK have reached a very delicate moment.
The temporary halt to the operation of the nuclear reactor at Yongbyon and the reintroduction of international inspectors was an important gesture.
But the DPRK has not yet clearly decided to irreversibly disable its nuclear facilities and fully disclose its nuclear programs and arsenals.
The Roh administration claims this summit will reinforce this negotiation. But it also has declared that the nuclear issue will not be on the summit agenda. In the absence of a dismantlement deal, this summit may only serve to recognize the DPRK's claim to the status of a nuclear power.
But all of these problems of timing take a back seat, in my view, to the location of the inter-Korean summit. Kim Jong-il committed himself, in the 2000 joint declaration, to a return visit to Seoul. This was not a trivial matter -- it was perhaps the most difficult issue in the talks, as Kim Dae-jung said upon return to Seoul.
Everyone understands the historic significance of a visit by Kim to Seoul. It would finally signal the DPRK's acceptance of the legitimacy of the ROK and its leadership and the abandonment of its historic aim to force unification under its banner.
The DPRK leadership would be compelled to show its own people images of their leader in the glittering streets of Seoul. That visit alone could go much farther than any peace declaration, any agreement on boundaries, any military confidence-building measures, or any economic investment deals, toward bringing a permanent peace to the Korean Peninsula.
If this summit had occurred in the right place, then the issues of timing would be incidental. No one could object to a breakthrough of that magnitude. Unfortunately, Kim Jong-il was not pressed to live up to his commitment. If this meeting achieves anything, it should make it clear that the next summit will only be held in Seoul.
Journal of Korean Studies, volume 12
Between 1979 and 1992, the Journal of Korean Studies became a leading academic forum for the publication of innovative in-depth research on Korea. Now under the editorial guidance of Gi-Wook Shin and John Duncan, this journal continues to be dedicated to quality articles, in all disciplines, on a broad range of topics concerning Korea, both historical and contemporary.
This edition's contents are as follows:
Special section: North Korea:
Guest Editor: Jae-Jung Suh
- Making Sense of North Korea: Institutionalizing Juche at the Nexus of Self and Other - Jae-Jung Suh
- The Making of the North Korean State - Gwang-Oon Kim
- The Suryong System as the Institution of Collectivist Development - Young Chul Chung
- The Rise and Demise of Industrial Agriculture in North Korea - Chong-Ae Yu
Article
Famine Relief, Social Order, and State Performance in Late Chosn Korea - Anders Karlsson
Book Reviews
- A History of the Early Korean Kingdom of Paekche, Together with an Annotated Translation of The Paekche Annals of the Samguk Sagi, by Jonathan Best. Reviewed by Gari Ledyard
- Perspectives on the Imjin War. Reviews by Kenneth M. Swope:
- The Book of Corrections: Reflections on the National Crisis During the Japanese Invasion of Korea, 1592–1598, translated by Byonghyon Choi
- The Imjin War: Japan’s Sixteenth-Century Invasion of Korea and Attempt to Conquer China, by Samuel Hawley
- Samurai Invasion: Japan’s Korean War, 1592–1598, by Stephen Turnbull.
- Painters as Envoys: Korean Inspiration in Eighteenth-Century Japanese Nanga, by Burglind Jungmann. Reviewed by Insoo Cho.
- Living Dangerously in Korea: The Western Experience 1900–1950, by Donald N. Clark. Reviewed by Kyung Moon Hwang
- Christianity in Korea, edited by Robert E. Buswell, Jr. and Timothy S. Lee. Reviewed by Chai-sik Chung
- Militarized Modernity and Gendered Citizenship in South Korea, by Seungsook Moon. Reviewed by William A. Hayes
- Ethnic Nationalism in Korea: Genealogy, Politics, and Legacy, by Gi-Wook Shin. Reviewed by William A. Hayes
- North Korea: Between Survival and Glory. Reviews by Sung-han Kim:
- North Korea: The Politics of Regime Survival, edited by Young Whan Kihl and Hong Nack Kim
- North Korea: 2005 and Beyond, edited by Philip W. Yun and Gi-Wook Shin
- Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies, edited by Victor D. Cha and David Kang
- A Troubled Peace: U.S. Policy and the Two Koreas, by Chae-Jin Lee
Cross Currents
Northeast Asia stands at a turning point in its history. The key economies of China, Japan, and South Korea are growing increasingly interdependent, and the movement toward regionalism is gaining momentum. Yet interdependency, often set in a global context, also spurs nationalism in all three countries, and beyond in East Asia. The essays in this volume assess current interactions -- or cross currents -- between national and regional forces in Northeast Asia, and suggest their future direction.
Cross Currents features provocative, plain-spoken contributions from a range of eminent international scholars and practitioners. They address key questions facing the region today: What competing visions of regional integration are being considered in Northeast Asia? Will they be realized? How do national pressures, especially the renewed China-Japan rivalry, stunt the movement toward regionalism? What role can Korea play to mitigate tensions between the two archrivals? How does the United States figure in Northeast Asian regionalism? Do America's Cold War alliances still have currency?
By addressing these questions from both Asian and U.S. perspectives, Cross Currents sheds new light on the interplay of national and regional forces in this strategic part of the world. Reformulating these interactions constructively is one of Northeast Asia's most pressing contemporary challenges.
Downloads: List of contributors | Introduction by Gi-Wook Shin | The United States and Northeast Asia, by Daniel Sneider
Desk, examination, or review copies can be requested through Stanford University Press.
Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia
Growing Pains: Tensions and Opportunity in China's Transformation
As its miracle growth continues seemingly unabated into a fourth decade, China's emergence as a global economic and political power is accepted as inevitable. China is changing and the world is changing in response.
There is, however, considerable disagreement about the nature of China's transformation and the consequences of its growth, with some predicting an inevitable crisis in China's political and economic systems. Yet social scientists gathering fresh data at China's grassroots see growing evidence of a profound transformation of institutions in both rural and urban China. The panelists will discuss and answer questions on the tensions and opportunities found in contemporary China, including: markets, governance, environment, and, inequities.
Cosponsored with the Center for East Asian Studies
Melanie Manion - Professor of Public Affairs and Political Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Professor Manion studied philosophy and political economy at Peking University in the late 1970s, was trained in Far Eastern studies at McGill University and the University of London, and earned her doctorate in political science at the University of Michigan. Her research has focused on institutions and institutionalization in Chinese politics. Her current research focuses on representation, especially the changing role of local congresses in mainland China.
Leonard Ortolano - UPS Foundation Professor of Civil Engineering in Urban and Regional Planning, Stanford University
Professor Ortolano's research stresses environmental policy implementation in developing countries, technology transfer, and the role of non-governmental organizations in environmental management. Several current projects concern air and water pollution control regulations in China.
Scott Rozelle - FSI Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University
Before arriving at Stanford, Dr. Rozelle was a professor at the University of California, Davis (1998-2000) and an assistant professor in the Food Research Institute and Department of Economics at Stanford University (1990-98). His research focuses almost exclusively on China and is concerned with agricultural policy, the emergence and evolution of markets, and the economics of poverty and inequality.
Moderated by Andrew Walder - Director-Emeritus, Shorenstein APARC; FSI Senior Fellow and the Denise O'Leary and Kent Thiry Professor of Sociology, Stanford University
Professor Walder is an expert on the sources of conflict, stability and change in communist regimes, and his current research focuses on the impact of China's market reforms on income inequality and career opportunity. He is also conducting historical research on the Cultural Revolution of 1966-1969, with an emphasis on the Beijing Red Guard movement during 1966 and 1967.
Bechtel Conference Center
Scott Rozelle
Encina Hall East, E404
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University. He received his BS from the University of California, Berkeley, and his MS and PhD from Cornell University. Previously, Rozelle was a professor at the University of California, Davis and an assistant professor in Stanford’s Food Research Institute and department of economics. He currently is a member of several organizations, including the American Economics Association, the International Association for Agricultural Economists, and the Association for Asian Studies. Rozelle also serves on the editorial boards of Economic Development and Cultural Change, Agricultural Economics, the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, and the China Economic Review.
His research focuses almost exclusively on China and is concerned with: agricultural policy, including the supply, demand, and trade in agricultural projects; the emergence and evolution of markets and other economic institutions in the transition process and their implications for equity and efficiency; and the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition.
Rozelle's papers have been published in top academic journals, including Science, Nature, American Economic Review, and the Journal of Economic Literature. His book, Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise, was published in 2020 by The University of Chicago Press. He is fluent in Chinese and has established a research program in which he has close working ties with several Chinese collaborators and policymakers. For the past 20 years, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy; a co-director of the University of California's Agricultural Issues Center; and a member of Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Center on Food Security and the Environment.
In recognition of his outstanding achievements, Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards, including the Friendship Award in 2008, the highest award given to a non-Chinese by the Premier; and the National Science and Technology Collaboration Award in 2009 for scientific achievement in collaborative research.
Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions
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Andrew G. Walder
Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Andrew G. Walder is the Denise O'Leary and Kent Thiry Professor at Stanford University, where he is also a senior fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Previously, he served as Chair of the Department of Sociology, Director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, and Head of the Division of International, Comparative and Area Studies in the School of Humanities and Sciences.
Walder has long specialized in the sources of conflict, stability, and change in communist regimes and their successor states. His publications on Mao-era China have ranged from the social and economic organization of that early period to the popular political mobilization of the late 1960s and the subsequent collapse and rebuilding of the Chinese party-state. His publications on post-Mao China have focused on the evolving pattern of stratification, social mobility, and inequality, with an emphasis on variation in the trajectories of post-state socialist systems. His current research is on the growth and evolution of China’s large modern corporations, both state and private, after the shift away from the Soviet-inspired command economy.
Walder joined the Stanford faculty in 1997. He received his Ph.D. in sociology at the University of Michigan in 1981 and taught at Columbia University before moving to Harvard in 1987. From 1995 to 1997, he headed the Division of Social Sciences at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
Walder has received fellowships and grants from the Guggenheim Foundation, the National Science Foundation, the National Academy of Sciences, the Henry Luce Foundation, the Ford Foundation, the Social Science Research Council, and the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences. His books and articles have won awards from the American Sociological Association, the Association for Asian Studies, and the Social Science History Association. He is an elected member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
His recent and forthcoming books include Fractured Rebellion: The Beijing Red Guard Movement (Harvard University Press, 2009); China Under Mao: A Revolution Derailed (Harvard University Press, 2015); Agents of Disorder: Inside China’s Cultural Revolution (Harvard University Press, 2019); and A Decade of Upheaval: The Cultural Revolution in Feng County (Princeton University Press, 2021) (with Dong Guoqiang); and Civil War in Guangxi: The Cultural Revolution on China’s Southern Periphery (Stanford University Press, 2023).
His recent articles include “After State Socialism: Political Origins of Transitional Recessions.” American Sociological Review 80, 2 (April 2015) (with Andrew Isaacson and Qinglian Lu); “The Dynamics of Collapse in an Authoritarian Regime: China in 1967.” American Journal of Sociology 122, 4 (January 2017) (with Qinglian Lu); “The Impact of Class Labels on Life Chances in China,” American Journal of Sociology 124, 4 (January 2019) (with Donald J. Treiman); and “Generating a Violent Insurgency: China’s Factional Warfare of 1967-1968.” American Journal of Sociology 126, 1 (July 2020) (with James Chu).
Political Violence and State Repression
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Cliff Tan
Stanford Center for International Development
579 Serra Mall at Galvez
Stanford, CA 94305-6015
Cliff Tan is Consulting Professor and formerly Visiting Scholar at the Stanford Center for International Development. At SCID, Mr. Tan is writing a book on financial market retrospectives of the Asian financial crisis, how those might or might not differ from well-recorded views of policymakers and academics, and if they differ, whether they offer lessons for the financial market crises of today. Mr. Tan is also a founding partner in a new charity that will partly invest in global microfinance, and occasionally consults to hedge funds
Prior to SCID, Mr. Tan headed up local markets strategy in fixed income and foreign exchange for Citigroup in Asia. Over 19 years of research on Asia and Japan, Mr. Tan worked as FX/Interest Rate Strategist and co-head of Asian Economics at Warburg Dillon Read (now UBS), Japan/Asia Economist at Wellington Management Company, LLC, and proprietary trading/credit risk economist at Bankers Trust Company. Mr. Tan has been voted a top five currency strategist several times by Asiamoney (including a #1 ranking in 2003) and has also been cited for work as both an economist and strategist by The Asset magazine.
Before entering financial markets, Mr. Tan covered Greater China at the US Federal Reserve Board, was a Lecturer at the University of Hong Kong and was a Visiting Fellow at the Korea Development Institute.
Mr. Tan received M.Phil. and M.A. degrees in Economics from Yale University, an A.M. in East Asian Regional Studies from Harvard University and an A.B. (magna cum laude) in Journalism and East Asian Studies from the University of Southern California.
The United States and Asia's Newest Tiger: Trade, Aid and Governance in Vietnam
Vietnam has become the newest "Asian tiger." The US played a leading role in negotiating Vietnam's January 2007 entry into the World Trade Organization and the 2001 US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement. Requirements in these treaties have accelerated the pace of economic and legal policy reforms in Vietnam. Combined with other initiatives, the reforms are giving rise to the domestic institutions, economic policies, governing procedures, and rule of law needed to grow a market economy, facilitate the fledgling private sector, and rationalize the state sector. US foreign assistance has been intensively involved in this effort. The effects of these changes have been felt in faster growth, increased trade, more foreign and domestic investment, and continued poverty alleviation. Within this context, the seminar can address an especially difficult and complex question: How might these reforms, and the changes they have foster, affect the political development of the country?
Steve Parker recently returned from nearly six years in Vietnam, where he served as the project manager for the STAR-Vietnam Project--the first major USAID-funded technical assistance program in post-war Vietnam. In that context he worked with the prime minister's office in Hanoi to help more than forty government agencies make the changes needed for Vietnam to implement the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) and accede to the World Trade Organization. His latest writing is a "Report on the 5-Year Impact of the BTA on Vietnam's Trade, Investment and Economic Structure." Previously he worked as an economic specialist for the US government and the Asia Foundation, and was posted to Vietnam, Indonesia, and Japan with USAID, the Asian Development Bank, and the Harvard Institute for International Development.
Co-sponsored with the Stanford Center for International Development.
Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room
Sabrina Ishimatsu
616 Jane Stanford Way
Encina Hall, E005
Stanford, CA 94305-6060
Sabrina Ishimatsu is the Event Coordinator and Distance Learning Instructor for the Stanford Program on International and Cross-Cultural Education (SPICE). Prior to joining SPICE in 2012, she assisted Professor Gi-Wook Shin and Ambassador Michael Armacost at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC). She has experience working in the private and international public sectors including the Consulate General of Japan in San Francisco, the Little Tokyo Service Center Community Development Corporation, and Compuware Corporation. Sabrina is also a former teacher on the Japan Exchange and Teaching (JET) Program.
As the Event Coordinator, she organizes SPICE events including the Hana-Stanford Conference on Korea for Secondary School Teachers, award ceremonies, and various visits by high school and college students from Japan. As a Distance Learning Instructor, she is leading the SPICE/Stanford e-Course on Global Health for Takatsuki High School.
Sabrina received a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business and Public Administration at the University of Puget Sound, Tacoma, Washington.
Sabrina is a former board member of the following organizations: JET Alumni Association of Northern California, JET Alumni Association of Southern California, and Gemini Crickets Parents of Multiples Club of Silicon Valley.
Gene Park
Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Gene Park is a Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2007-2008. Park is currently working on a book that analyzes how a large government system for mobilizing and allocating financial capital, the Fiscal Investment Loan Program, has influenced budget politics and the internal coalitional dynamics within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
His work has appeared in the journals Governance and Asian Survey, and he co-authored an article for the edited volume, The State after Statism (Harvard University Press). Dr. Park received a Fulbright scholarship to study in Japan. He has been a visiting scholar at the Japanese Ministry of Finance's Policy Research Institute and Sophia University in Tokyo.
Dr. Park completed his Ph.D. in 2007 in political science at University of California, Berkeley. He also holds a Masters in City and Regional Planning from Berkeley, and a B.A. in Philosophy from Swarthmore College.
Joon Young Chung
Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Joon Young Chung is a reporter at Yonhap News, a Korean news wire service, and has worked in various departments including the national desk, business desk and the North Korea desk for the past 14 years. Recently he has covered Inter-Korean dialogue and the Six-Party talks.