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In this paper, I draw on the experience of the European Union (EU) to ask under what conditions economic integration furthers democratization. Scholars agree that incentives at the European level have helped democratic transitions in Southern and Eastern Europe. However, there is no agreement on (i) the exact causal mechanisms involved, (ii) the relative size of the effects, (iii) whether this success can be replicated outside or Europe. I address these issues by offering a theory of how integration furthers democratization. I argue economic integration can help citizens resolve the coordination dilemmas they face in holding their rulers accountable. Integration works in two ways: (a) through diffusion of civic culture, it enables citizens to second-guess each other's likely actions in the event of government abuse, (b) through credible conditionality, integration removes the ability of the ruler to lean on some support coalitions while abusing others. An empirical test of the theory strongly confirms that economic integration leads to democracy when its culture-spreading aspect is strongly backed by conditionality. An important aspects of the theory is that it generalizes. The theory and evidence suggest that there are substantial unexploited opportunities for encouraging democracy in Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and Asia.

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

Nikolay Vladimirov Marinov Fellow CDDRL
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Professor McMillan presents a paper co-authored by Pablo Zoido in which they descibe secret-police chief Vladimiro Montesinos Torres' effectiveness in undermining Peru's democratic institutions through bribery.

One single television channel's bribe was five times larger than the total of the opposition politicians' bribes. By revealed preference, the strongest check on the government's power was the news media.

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

John McMillan Professor Graduate School of Business
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Henry S. Rowen
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APARC's Henry S. Rowen is featured in James Mann's new book for his role in formulating the military strategy that the United States should employ in a war against Iraq. The book details the Cheney-Wolfowitz-Rowen war plan -- dubbed "Operation Scorpion" -- which proposed an invasion of Iraq from the west, through the country's empty desert regions toward the Euphrates River.

APARC's Henry S. Rowen is featured in James Mann's new book, The Rise of the Vulcans: The History of Bush's War Cabinet, Viking Penguin: New York, 2004, pp 186-97, for his role in formulating the military strategy that the United States should employ in a war against Iraq. The book details the Cheney-Wolfowitz-Rowen war plan -- dubbed "Operation Scorpion" -- which proposed an invasion of Iraq from the west, through the country's empty desert regions toward the Euphrates River.

While campaigning for president in 2000, George W. Bush downplayed his lack of foreign policy experience by emphasizing that he would surround himself with a highly talented and experienced group of political veterans. This core group, consisting of Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Colin Powell, Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Armitage, and Condoleezza Rice, has a long history together dating back 30 years in some cases. Dubbing themselves the Vulcans, they have largely determined the direction and focus of the Bush presidency. In this new book, Mann traces their careers and the development of their ideas in order to understand how and why American foreign policy got to where it is today.

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Henry S. Rowen
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The clearest evidence of the Iran link came in January 1990, when Pakistan's army chief of staff conveyed his threat to arm Iran to a top Pentagon official. Henry S. Rowen, at the time an assistant defense secretary, said Pakistani Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg issued the warning in a face-to-face meeting in Pakistan. "Beg said something like, 'If we don't get adequate support from the U.S., then we may be forced to share nuclear technology with Iran,'" said Rowen, now a professor at Stanford University. Rowen said former President Bush's administration did little to follow up on Beg's warning. "In hindsight, maybe before or after that they did make some transfers," Rowen said. Rowen said he told Beg that Pakistan would be "in deep trouble" if it gave nuclear weapons to Iran. Rowen said he was surprised by the threat because at the time Americans thought Pakistan's secular government dominated by Sunni Muslims wouldn't aid Iran's Shiite Muslim theocracy. "There was no particular reason to think it was a bluff, but on the other hand, we didn't know," Rowen said.

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Donald Kennedy
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The national debate over human embryonic stem cell research -- one that has pitted religious objections against the promise of major scientific and therapeutic advances -- has been reawakened by a dramatic advance that could have been made in the United States, but wasn't. That's because on Aug. 9, 2001, President Bush announced that only stem cell lines obtained before that date could be used in research supported by federal funds. This has virtually halted a vital area of medical science here because development of an equivalent level of private support will require many years. And that's why the new excitement comes from South Korea, not from this country. The stakes are high. Stem cells, which can be obtained from human embryos otherwise discarded at fertility clinics in the course of assisted reproduction, are capable of forming all of the tissues of the adult human body under the right circumstances. They are of enormous potential advantage in the treatment of Parkinson's disease, spinal cord injuries, Alzheimer's disease and diabetes. So what's wrong with the dozen or so old cell lines we have? The problem is that most of the approved lines are unavailable, or otherwise guarded by murky intellectual property claims. The way they were made and their limited genetic diversity limit their therapeutic utility. More important, new technology has taken us beyond their capacity. The recent experiments performed in South Korea have produced a robust line of stem cells, derived from blastocysts that were produced by activating eggs taken from female volunteers with nuclei taken from body cells of the donor. This process, called somatic cell nuclear transfer, is viewed by some as akin to cloning people, which no one in the scientific community favors. Instead, it provides a way to explore the early processes of human development and develop novel ways of understanding the basis for genetic predisposition to late-onset diseases. It is essential research, and it is needed here. Yet if the congressional opponents of stem cell research have their way, a bill already passed by the House and now being considered in the Senate would make such work a crime. In South Korea, cloning for reproductive purposes is against the law. But this work, plainly aimed at scientific and therapeutic purposes, was encouraged and supported by the government. If we decide to discourage or even criminalize such experiments here, they will be done elsewhere -- and the benefits will be reaped by others. One option in this country is to approach a solution at the state level. Some states have passed laws that make cloning people illegal but allow cloning stem cells -- an important distinction that Congress has so far been unwilling to make. And some states have developed the means for raising funds to support the kind of research that now cannot be done with federal funds. A forthcoming ballot initiative in California would appropriate $350 million each year to support stem cell research. It would create a California Stem Cell Research and Cures Fund, to be distributed by an Institute for Regenerative Medicine, overseen by an independent citizens committee selected from academic and research institutions. The funding plan rests on the authorization of a $3 billion general obligation bond issue. For the first five years, a positive tax revenue stream generated by the initial expenditures will make it possible not to burden the state's general fund while it recovers from its present economic stress. The California experiment is an interesting one. As Californians and scientists, we hope for its success. But we also hope that it will be a signal for other citizens -- that there are domestic alternatives to a national policy that threatens to drive an important and valuable research activity overseas. A California resolution would be nice for us, and for the California economy. But if we can't find a solution that permits stem cell research at the federal level, the result will be costly for our national health.

  • DAVID BALTIMORE is president of the California Institute of Technology;
  • PAUL BERG is a professor of biochemistry at Stanford University;
  • DONALD KENNEDY, former Stanford president, is editor-in-chief of Science magazine; and
  • IRV WEISSMAN is a professor of cancer biology at Stanford. They wrote this column for the Mercury News.
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Medical anthropologist and physician Paul Farmer has dedicated his life to treating some of the world's poorest populations, in the process helping to raise the standard of health care in underdeveloped areas of the world. Paul Farmer has worked in infectious-disease control in the Americas for nearly two decades and is a world-renowned authority on tuberculosis treatment and control. Dr. Farmer has pioneered novel, community-based treatment strategies for infectious diseases (including HIV/AIDS and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis) in resource-poor settings.

In 1993, he was awarded a John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Genius Award in recognition of his work, and in 2003 the Heinz Award for the Human Condition.

Bechtel Conference Center

Dr. Paul Farmer Professor of Medicine and Medical Anthropology, Harvard University and Medical Director, Clinique Bon Sauveur, Cange, Haiti
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As part of his visit to the West Coast of the United States, Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs Mr. Jan Petersen will speak at Stanford University. The Foreign Minister will speak about the role Norway is playing in facilitating peace and reconciliation processes in Sri Lanka, the Middle East and Africa. Furthermore the Foreign Minister will focus on security policy, including Norway's involvement in international operations in Afghanistan, the Balkans and Iraq.

Philippines Conference Room

Jan Petersen Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs
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Mexico's former foreign minister Jorge Castañeda spoke at Stanford Institute for International Studies (SIIS) on February 19, 2004 on "America and the World: Non-U.S. Perspectives -- A View from Mexico."

Mexico's former foreign minister Jorge Castañeda spoke at Stanford Institute for International Studies (SIIS) on February 19, 2004 on "America and the World: Non-U.S. Perspectives -- A View from Mexico."

Castañeda, who served as Mexico's Secretary of Foreign Affairs from January 2000 to January 2002 spoke in capacity as the Visiting Payne Distinguished Lecturer for winter 2004. He is currently a professor of international affairs at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.

During his lecture, Castañeda cited the United States' unilateral actions against Iraq and the Bush administration's unwillingness to discuss ratifications to NAFTA as reasons for rising anti-American sentiments in Mexico.

The Payne Lectureship is named for Frank E. Payne and Arthur W. Payne, brothers who gained an appreciation for global problems through their international business operations. Their descendants endowed the annual lecture series at SIIS.

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