Hana-Stanford Conference on Korea for U.S. Secondary Teachers was established at the Korean Studies Program in 2012 with the generous support of Hana Financial Group. The purpose of the conference is to bring secondary school educators from across the United States for intensive and lively sessions on a wide assortment of Korean studies-related topics ranging from U.S.-Korea relations to history, and religion to popular culture.
Stanford's Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) is pleased to announce that undergraduate senior honors student, Anna Barrett Schickele, received the Firestone Medal for Excellence in Undergraduate Research. This university award is given to the top ten percent of honors theses in social science, science, and engineering.
Schickele's thesis entitled, "One Drop At A Time," examines the factors that inform farmers' decisions to use modern irrigation systems in the Lurín Valley of Peru, where she spent several months conducting fieldwork with a Lima-based NGO. Schickele — a public policy major —was able to collect primary data through interviews with farmers and fieldworkers to inform her research study that includes policy recommendations to the NGO community and government officials.
Anna Schickele (center) with Francis Fukuyama (left) and Larry Diamond (right).
Martin Carnoy, the Vida Jacks Professor of Education at the Stanford Graduate School of Education, served as Schickele's thesis advisor together with Rosamond L. Naylor, the director of the Center on Food Security and the Environment at FSI.
"Ana's thesis is an important contribution to our understanding of the barriers and openings for stimulating agricultural development among subsistence farmers," said Carnoy. "Her original insights make the thesis particularly valuable for those addressing development issues in the world’s poorest regions."
In August, Schickele will begin a research position at the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
CDDRL's best thesis award was given to Kabir Sawhney, a management science and engineering major, who wrote his thesis on the effect of regime type and the propensity to default on sovereign debt. Advised by Professor of Political Science Gary Cox, Swahney cited the cases of Romania in the 1980s and more recently of Greece to conclude that the quality of government — rather than regime type alone — determines whether a country chooses to default.
After graduation. Sawhney will join the consulting firm Accenture as an analyst in their San Francisco office.
Three honors students' received fellowships from Stanford's Haas Center of Public Service to pursue public service-related work after graduation. Keith Calix and Imani Franklin both received the Tom Ford Fellowship in Philanthropy and will be working in New York for grant-making foundations, and Lina Hidalgo received the Omidyar Network Postgraduate Fellowship to work with an international organization.
The CDDRL Undergraduate Senior Honors Program is an interdisciplinary honors program led by Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at FSI. The program recruits a diverse group of talented students interested in writing original theses on topics impacting the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law. During the year-long program, students write their thesis in consultation with a CDDRL faculty member, participate in research workshops, and travel to Washington, D.C. for "honors college."
The nine members of the graduating class of 2013 CDDRL undergraduate honors students include:
Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (Tcrit), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and Tcritexposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for Tcrit. Increasing Tcrit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over Tcrit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over Tcrit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over Tcrit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a global basis, this would have little impact for the other crops. Therefore, regardless of the impact of other global change factors (such as increasing atmospheric CO2), reproductive extreme heat exposure will pose risks for global crop production without adaptive measures such as changes in sowing dates, crop and variety switching, expansion of irrigation, and agricultural expansion into cooler areas.
The Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford University is pleased to announce the 2014 class of undergraduate senior honors students.
Honors students will spend four quarters participating in research seminars to refine their proposed thesis topic, while working in consultation with a CDDRL faculty advisor to supervise their project. In September, the group will travel to Washington, D.C. for honors college where they will visit leading government and development organizations to witness policymaking in practice and consult with key decision-makers.
Please join CDDRL in congratulating the 2014 Senior Honors students and welcoming them to the Center.
Below are profiles of the nine honors students highlighting their academic interests, why they applied to CDDRL, and some fun facts.
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Aline Bass
Major: History, minor in East Asian Studies
Hometown: Dallas, TX
Thesis Title: How do the concepts of law and morality in China reflect and impact the development of private property rights, specifically urban land-use rights, in the post-Mao era?
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? In the Western tradition, clarification of property rights is an essential catalyst for economic development and foundation for the rule of law. China’s unparalleled economic growth and rapid urbanization since the beginning of the reform era offers a counterpoint experience, which I hope to examine through the lens of land use rights, since, historically and currently, land ownership has played a crucial role in determining social security and wealth in Chinese society. My thesis will combine historical and qualitative analysis and examination of the current real property situation in China’s urban areas, which should contribute perspective to the broader study of China’s development as well as urban property rights in emerging countries.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? An opportunity to work under the guidance of the CDDRL faculty and alongside fellow honors students in an interdisciplinary program provides an ideal and challenging intellectual environment. In addition, CDDRL’s focus on development and its inextricable ties to good governance offers a unique insight into various development situations, their associated successes, shortcomings, and consequences for social improvement.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: I hope to attend law school after Stanford, work and live abroad, and pursue a career related to China.
What are your summer research plans: I will be working in a law firm in Shanghai this summer and conducting research in both Shanghai and Beijing.
Fun fact about yourself: I can consume more ice cream than a Ben and Jerry’s factory tour group.
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Meaghan Conway
Major:Science, Technology & Society
Hometown: New York City, NY
Thesis Title: Blended ROI? Analyzing the economic and social returns of private equity investment in emerging markets
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? For my honors thesis I plan to research private equity investments in sub-Saharan Africa. I hope to investigate whether private equity investments (and partnerships with international financial institutions such as the IFC and World Bank) generate robust returns for the investors as well as catalyze development in their communities. I hope that my thesis, while adding to the literature in the field, will more importantly serve as support for further investment in developing economies and promote the power of impact investing.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? The people! I am thrilled to have the opportunity to be mentored by some of Stanford’s most renowned faculty and I am excited to learn from my fellow undergraduates in the CDDRL.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: For my career, I would love to be able to combine my interest in finance and my interest in development. I hope to travel, attend business school, and be a socially responsible investor.
What are your summer research plans: First I will be interning in investment banking in New York and then I hope to head to South Africa to conduct some field research for my thesis!
Fun fact about yourself: I spent this past summer working in Dubai and had the opportunity to ride a camel and play with penguins!
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Mahilini Kailaiyangirichelvam
Major: International Relations, minor in Economics
Hometown: Jaffna, Sri Lanka
Thesis Title: The impact of civil war on food production in Sri Lanka
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? War can pose serious threats to food security within a country. These threats stem from disruption of the economy and institutions as well as from policy changes. It is through understanding the impacts of these factors on food security that food insecurity and hunger can be alleviated or avoided. The understanding gained from this work can guide development work.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? My research on the impact of war cannot be understood using concepts drawn only from economics or politics. CDDRL views issues using a broader, integrated lens of economics, politics, and law, and it provides a wonderful forum that brings senior scholars and student researchers pursuing a wide variety of topics together for discussions. This interdisciplinary environment offers the perfect academic home for me.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: I hope to pursue doctoral studies either in international economics or development economics. I would like to become a professor and pursue research and development work in Asia.
What are your summer research plans: I will be collecting and analyzing food production data and interviewing policy experts and farmers in Sri Lanka so that I can better understand the changes in food economy that results from the civil war in Sri Lanka.
Fun fact about yourself: I grew up learning sword fighting in the ancient tradition of Tamil kingdom. I also enjoy listening to carnatic music, and playing Veena.
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Haiy Le
Major: International Relations
Hometown: Charlotte, NC
Thesis Title: How is the Media Used to Advocate for Land Rights in Vietnam?
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Civil society actors are using the media network in Vietnam - from the state-owned press to the increasingly vocal blogosphere - to advocate for policy change on land rights. My research will contribute to the literature on how information technology is affecting the media and how it can be directed towards positive social impact.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? I want my undergraduate education to culminate in a project in which I take ownership of my learning and contribute to scholarly knowledge on a topic that is meaningful to me. I am not sure if grad school lies in the future, and the honors program is a wonderful opportunity to have the resources of the university and the mentorship of the CDDRL community to ask these questions.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: I hope that the process of completing a thesis will connect me with the resources to pursue my interest in democratic development and liberation technology.
What are your summer research plans: I will be in Vietnam collecting data for my research. I also have plans to travel to Cambodia, Thailand, and Singapore!
Fun fact about yourself: I coincidentally saw Professor Larry Diamond in Hue, Vietnam when I was traveling there. I believe it was fate, and I knew I had to join the CDDRL community and return to Vietnam to work with him on my thesis!
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Devanshi Patel
Major: International Relations, minor in Comparative Studies in Race and Ethnicity
Hometown: San Jose, CA
Thesis Title: How the Chain of Command Structure of the U.S. Military Affects the Reporting and Prosecution of Internal Sexual Assault Cases
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Though the Department of Defense observes a “zero tolerance policy,” in the year 2011 alone 3,191 military sexual assaults were reported. Because most assaults are not reported, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta estimates that the number is closer to 19,000, translating into a 16.7% reporting rate. Some legislation has suggested developing joint jurisdiction between the Department of Defense and the Department of Justice to prosecute sexual assault cases. Through my thesis, I hope to explore the "rule of law" aspect of the zero tolerance policy, and assess the effects of internal prosecution.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? So far, I have enjoyed deepening my understanding of research methods through the CDDRL weekly seminar. I am drawn to the program because of its interdisciplinary nature that will allow me to blend both quantitative and qualitative approaches to research.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: I hope to study human rights law and spend considerable time studying and working abroad.
What are your summer research plans: I will be interviewing members of the military in different regions of the United States, including California and Washington, DC.
Fun fact about yourself: I enjoy cooking vegetarian food and experimenting with new recipes!
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Janani Ramachandran
Major: International Relations
Hometown: Fremont, CA and Bangalore, India
Thesis Title: Anti-Americanism in Pakistan
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? I believe that the general American narrative on anti-American perceptions lacks nuance, and I hope to present a more complex picture with a framework of the various anti-Americanisms, particularly in Pakistan, a critical geo-political partner to the U.S. I hope such a study can help inform U.S. foreign policy for future relationships with Pakistan and other strategic conflict-ridden states in the non-Western world, to minimize levels of distrust and promote mutual respect and sustainable relations.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? I have always been a fan of the work of CDDRL and its fellows throughout my time at Stanford. As a research assistant for international human rights expert Helen Stacy, I understood the value of close interactions and guidance from scholars at CDDRL. The honors program provided the perfect opportunity to pursue my research passion, along with the guidance of some of the world's most respected scholars in the field.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: To work in the foreign policy and international human rights space in Washington D.C. and abroad
What are your summer research plans:I will conduct virtual interviews with individuals in Pakistan, and prepare for a research trip to Islamabad in December. I will also be interning at the Ashoka Foundation in Caracas, Venezuela on social entrepreneurship projects, and the Ford Foundation in New Delhi, India, on governance projects.
Fun fact about yourself: I've visited 23 countries, speak four languages, and grew up in India and the US. I was voted "most likely to be a future leader" in fourth grade.
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Danna Seligman
Major: Political Science
Hometown: Newbury Park, CA
Thesis Title: The Origins of Political Gridlock- Institutional and Societal Mechanisms that Inhibit Government Productivity in the United States
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Gridlock has become a paralyzing constraint to our current American political institutions, but little has been done in an attempt to overcome such a significant strain to our democratic system. Legislative productivity and representation in government have been compromised by our government's inability to make, pass and execute laws. In many ways, political gridlock blocks the government from affecting the will of the people and effectively addressing its constituents needs.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? The interdisciplinary nature of the program was truly key for the thesis I wanted to write. I appreciate the freedom to use different methods to approach relevant questions about society and government, and the CDDRL faculty is the best resource any Stanford student could ask for.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: I plan to attend law school after Stanford, but also hope to do some campaign work during the 2014 midterm elections. I hope to pursue a career in national politics and eventually be in a position to implement the ideas and theories my thesis and CDDRL endorses for better democracy and governance.
What are your summer research plans: I will be in Washington D.C. this summer working for Congressman Xavier Becerra, and hope to use my time in D.C. to conduct interviews with prominent political thinkers and actors.
Fun fact about yourself: I was a Stanford Dollie 2011-2012.
Belina Tang
Belinda Tang
Major: Economics & Public Policy
Hometown: San Jose, CA
Thesis Title: The Implications of Women Policymakers in a Natural Experiment in Lesotho
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? A lot of previousresearch has shown that, when it comes to making decisions on how to allocate resources, women, at both the household and government-level, make different decisions than males do, particularly for health and education-related public goods. If that's also a result of giving women power in local government in an African country, then increasing the institutional power of women could represent a strong mechanism through which we can improve development indicators in the world's poorest region.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? The inspiring cohort of students I will be able to work with and learn from (and the abundance of free lunches!).
Future aspiration post-Stanford: To do research with implications for the lives of individuals in poverty.
What are your summer research plans: I will be doing fieldwork in Lesotho in July and August.
Fun fact about yourself: My name in Chinese tells a story of how many small and seemingly insignificant streams can flow together to form a large and powerful one - I like to think this is a metaphor for my life!
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Aditya Todi
Major: International Relations
Hometown: Kathmandu, Nepal
Thesis Title: The role and importance of political parties in consolidating democracy with a focus on Nepal and potentially South Africa and Ghana
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Political parties are an integral part of democracies anywhere, but even so in countries undergoing democratic transition. Nepal has already had two failed "experimentations" with democracy in the past fifty years. The historic elections of 2008 have paved the way for Nepal to move forward and consolidate democracy. Going forward, it will be crucial for political parties to play their part in strengthening democracy in Nepal and to represent the people of the country to the best of their abilities.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? Other than the free lunches, it would have to be the faculty and the interdisciplinary aspect of the program. The faculty as well as inter-student engagement makes the program very unique and appealing.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: Pursue further studies in business and public policy as well as have a chance to travel extensively within Nepal.
What are your summer research plans: I will be doing some preliminary research in Nepal during the two weeks I am there this summer. I also hope to gather data and learn about the political parties in Ghana during my time as a Stanford in Government (SIG) Fellow at the Center for Democratic Development.
Fun fact about yourself: I enjoy playing and watching cricket and would be down to watch a Hindi film any time of day.
Amy Zegart, one of the nation’s leading experts on national security, intelligence and foreign policy, has been appointed the next co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation.
Zegart, a CISAC faculty member and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, will take up her new role July 1. She succeeds Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, who was named director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, CISAC’s parent organization.
“Amy Zegart is an award-winning scholar, an accomplished professional with public and private sector experience, and a trusted voice on national security and foreign policy,” said Cuéllar. “Her multi-disciplinary scholarship, diverse experiences, and commitment to getting it right will complement the Freeman Spogli Institute's growing focus on governance problems, and will make her a dynamic leader for CISAC as the center continues its vital work on international cooperation and security.”
Zegart, once named one of the 10 most influential experts in intelligence reform by the National Journal, said she intends to continue expanding the center’s focus on emerging security issues, such as cybersecurity, drones and challenges to governance while building on CISAC’s distinguished reputation in nuclear security.
“The international threat environment is changing faster and in more profound ways than anyone could have imagined 10 or 20 years ago,” said Zegart, who is also a professor of political economy (by courtesy) at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, where she co-teaches a course on managing political risk with former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
“CISAC will continue to be at the forefront of addressing these new challenges with the same secret sauce it’s had since its founding in 1983: world class talent; a commitment to teaching the next generation; and a deep belief that bridging the natural and social sciences is vital to solving the world’s most dangerous problems,” she said.
CISAC, more than any other institution, provided a scholarly environment that was intellectually challenging and personally supportive at the same time. That’s quite a rare cultural combination."
Zegart’s research examines the organization of American national security agencies and their effectiveness. She served on the Clinton administration's National Security Council staff and as a foreign policy adviser to the 2000 presidential campaign of George W. Bush. She has testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee, provided training to the Marine Corps, and advised officials on intelligence and homeland security matters. From 2009 to 2011 she served on the National Academies of Science Panel to Improve Intelligence Analysis. Her commentary has been featured on national television and radio shows and in The New York Times, Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times.
Zegart writes regular commentary for Foreign Policy about national security issues. In this excerpt from one of those posts about the privatization of American intelligence and the growing businesses of political risk management, her approach accentuates her ability to bring complex issues to a general audience:
In the old days, the ‘free world’ and ‘Soviet bloc’ were two different universes. Not anymore. Now everything is connected. Sweden’s Ikea has stores in Russia. My CIA alarm clock was made in China. Unrest in Cairo can cause legging shortages in California. And communications happen everywhere. Wifi can be found in Bedouin tents, on the top of Mount Everest, and on buses in rural Rwanda. Kenyan fisherman may lack electricity, but they can check weather conditions and fish market prices on their cell phones. All of this connectedness means that political risks – civil strife, instability, insurgency, coups, weak legal standards, corruption – have more spillover effects. What happens in Vegas does not stay in Vegas.
Zegart recalls being fascinated with politics since she was a kid. She spent her childhood tracking election night tallies and writing her congressman. When she was 13, she followed on TV the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s historic visit to the United States in 1979 and was thrilled when he donned a cowboy hat at a Texas rodeo.
“I was enthralled,” Zegart said. “My mother, an antique dealer who can find anyone and anything, tracked down a local Taiwanese graduate student and convinced her to teach me Mandarin after school.”
She would continue studying Chinese at Andover, majored in East Asian Studies at Harvard, and would win a Fulbright Scholarship to travel to China and study the 1989 Chinese democracy movement and Tiananmen Square tragedy. Zegart then earned her M.A. and Ph.D. in political science from Stanford and became a full professor of public policy at UCLA’s Luskin School of Public Affairs as well as a fellow at the Burkle Center for International Relations.
Zegart notes she’s been connected to CISAC for more than two decades. She first showed up at the center’s former Galvez House headquarters during her first quarter as a Stanford graduate student. She kept coming back even after she got her Ph.D.; both of her award-winning books were germinated in presentations she gave to CISAC seminars.
“CISAC, more than any other institution, provided a scholarly environment that was intellectually challenging and personally supportive at the same time,” Zegart said. “That’s quite a rare cultural combination.”
This academic year, she co-taught with Martha Crenshaw the popular CISAC-sponsored class International Security in a Changing World, which culminates in a U.N. Security Council simulation in which students debate a pressing global issue.
CISAC has a tradition of appointing co-directors – one from the social sciences and the other from the natural sciences – to advance the center’s interdisciplinary mission to conduct and promote cutting-edge research to make the world a safer place.
“Amy brings to CISAC a wealth of expertise in international security issues, a deep commitment to scholarship and a sincere desire to strengthen and expand the center’s activities and impact,” said David Relman, CISAC’s other co-director, a Stanford microbiologist and professor of infectious diseases, as well as expert on emerging biological threats. “We share an interest in emerging technologies and the effective international mechanisms that address 21st century challenges and threats.”
Zegart is the author of two award-winning books. Flawed by Design, which chronicles the development of the Central Intelligence Agency, Joint Chiefs of Staff, and National Security Council, won the highest national dissertation award in political science. Spying Blind, which examines why American intelligence agencies failed to adapt to the terrorist threat before 9/11, won the National Academy of Public Administration’s Brownlow Book Award. She has also published in International Security, Political Science Quarterly, and other leading academic journals. She serves on the editorial boards of Terrorism and Political Violence and Intelligence and National Security. Her most recent book is Eyes on Spies: Congress and the United States Intelligence Community.
Before her academic career, Zegart spent three years at McKinsey & Company advising Fortune 100 companies about strategy and organizational effectiveness.
She serves on the FBI Intelligence Analysts Association National Advisory Board and the Los Angeles Police Department’s Counter-terrorism and Community Police Advisory Board and is a lifetime member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
After two years, North and South Korea have agreed to resume official meetings with one another. Gi-Wook Shin suggests that the North could also be interested in reopening dialogue with the United States.
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A reunification arch over the highway between Pyongyang and Panmunjom Peace Village, where the resumed inter-Korean talks will take place this week.
The Sustainability Science Award Subcommittee was unanimous in its recommendation that the Seeds of Sustainability team of authors (which included seven FSE affiliates) receive this year's award, citing the following:
Seeds of Sustainability tackles a central challenge of sustainable development: agricultural modernization. It is cutting edge not because the issue itself is new, but rather the level of integration the authors attempted and the innovative process they used. The volume summarizes the findings and reflects on the process of a highly interdisciplinary team of researchers, integrating perspectives from: biogeochemistry, atmospheric sciences, land-use change, institutions, agronomy, economics, and knowledge systems. The foundation of the work is rigorous, grounding its findings in multiple peer reviewed publications, while not hesitating to point out gaps or unresolved issues. Seeds of Sustainability includes an in depth historical analysis, which captures issues of path dependence. It demonstrates both originality and critical reflectiveness in its efforts to engage practitioners in the conceptualization and execution of its research, and the implementation of its findings. And almost uniquely in our collective experience, it speaks seriously, frankly, and insightfully to the challenges of institutionalizing the sort of work it reports on.
It makes intuitive sense: If you want to want to tackle the epidemic of obesity among adults, try stopping it in childhood.
Around the country, hospitals and other health care providers have set up intensive six-month programs to treat obese children as young as 6. Children and their parents get dietary training, exercise regimens, and weekly family counseling about healthier lifestyles. The idea is that children will not just slim down but also develop healthier habits that will stay with them well into adulthood. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, a panel of independent health care experts convened by the government, recommends such treatment for all obese children 6 years or older.
But a new Stanford study ― drawing on health data going back 40 years, as well as some more limited data on the results of treating obesity in children ― suggests that this head-on treatment of youngsters will have a surprisingly meager impact on reducing obesity-related illness in adulthood.
The problem, in a nutshell, is that people go through a great many changes as they grow up. Many obese children slim down without any special treatment, and many thin children become overweight as adults. Even if children get treatment at the age of 6 or 8 that’s considered successful, the researchers say, many will be obese again by the time they are 30 or 40. And many who weren’t obese at young ages will be obese later.
The new study, “Analyzing Screening Policies for Childhood Obesity,” appeared in the April 2013 issue of Management Science. It was conducted by Lawrence M. Wein, a professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business; Yan Yang, a recent graduate of the doctoral program at Stanford’s Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering; and Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert, assistant professor at Stanford’s School of Medicine and a core faculty member at Stanford Health Policy, a research center at the university’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
Some of their findings:
Intensive obesity treatment has very little impact on the likelihood that obese 6-year-olds will suffer from hypertension as adults. A full 25.1% of those who receive treatment will have hypertension by the time they are 40, for example, compared to 26.8% of those who don’t get treatment.
Early childhood screening for obesity has limited predictive value for health in adulthood. The researchers calculate that 18.8% of 6-year-olds who are not obese will suffer from hypertension by the time they reach 40.
You would have to provide intensive treatment to 20 obese 6-year-olds to get just one less case of adult hypertension when those individuals are 40.
Intensive treatment has a more significant long-term impact for 16-year-olds, but even that effect may be modest. The researchers predict that about 34.9% of obese 16-year-olds who get treatment would still develop obesity-related illnesses by the age of 40, compared to 39.4% of those who didn’t get treated at age 16.
No one disputes that obesity is an epidemic health problem in the United States. About 35% of American adults are obese, a two-fold increase since 1980. Roughly 17% of children are obese, about triple the rate in 1980. Estimates of the cost of treating Americans of all ages for obesity-related illnesses, such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease, range as high as $190 billion per year.
While educating children and families about exercise and diet might be useful to individual youngsters, the issue under study at Stanford was whether widespread, intensive treatment for obese young children offers much bang for the buck. A six-month program can easily cost $3,500 per child, so treating every obese child in the United States would cost billions, and the number of service providers needed would probably far outstrip the number who currently offer treatment. At the moment, relatively few obese children get such treatment, because both public and private insurance programs are reluctant to cover it.
For any given amount of money spent on treatment, the Stanford researchers estimate, concentrating on teenagers who are 16 or older would produce a slight increase in health benefits compared to treating all obese children from the ages of 6 to 18. Alternatively, the cost of obtaining the same long-term reductions in adult obesity-related illness could be reduced by 28% by focusing on 16-year-olds.
An even smarter strategy from a public policy standpoint, the researchers argue, could be to put more money into universal efforts aimed at all children ― better nutrition in the schools, better playgrounds and fitness programs in the schools, and public efforts to reduce consumption of junk food ― rather than focusing on just obese children.
“There are a lot of good things we can do in the schools, in the supermarkets of big cities, in the food industry, and in the beverage industry,” says Wein, an affiliated faculty member at FSI's Center for International Security and Cooperation. “From a cost-effectiveness standpoint, I believe this would be a better way.”
The new study is likely to be controversial. Because almost no children received intensive obesity treatments back in the 1970s or 1980s, the researchers used statistical modeling to infer the long-term benefits. It sounds highly theoretical, but the approach is analogous to predicting the trajectory of a hurricane and then estimating how much a change in conditions would knock the hurricane off the path originally predicted.
The researchers began by getting a baseline for what happens to children in the absence of treatment, drawing on two national data sets that tracked the health conditions of children and adults over several decades. That allowed them to estimate the likelihood that children of particular weights and ages will suffer from diabetes or hypertension by the time they are 40. The researchers then combined those long-term probabilities with shorter-term results from studies of children who did and who did not receive treatment.
Businesses have used similar types of statistical modeling for years to make decisions about the timing of production, inventory acquisition, shipping, and many other issues. Wein, who began his career by using mathematical tools to optimize manufacturing systems, has used them for more than two decades to analyze potential social and health challenges: responding to disease pandemics, optimizing emergency nutrition during famines, dealing with bioterrorist threats.
The researchers emphasize that there may still be important short-term reasons to intensively treat obesity in some younger children. They also caution that their study doesn’t imply that parents should stop worrying if their children are seriously overweight. But if a prime goal of intensive childhood treatment is to reduce chronic disease in adults, they say, there are better ways to tackle the problem.
On May 23, FSE hosted its final symposium of a two-year series on global food policy and food security in the 21st century. The series was designed to look at the growing nexus of food, water and energy and to understand the disparities in agricultural productivity amongst developed and developing countries. What lessons can be learned from history, and how can these be applied to inform an effective and sustainable effort to eliminate food insecurity in sub-Saharan Asia and South Asia?
FSE thanks the series participants and funder, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. This summer FSE will be publishing a synthesis volume as a final product of the series. Past talks and papers are available for download on the FSE website. We hope you enjoyed the series!
Food and water security in sub-Saharan Africa remain a challenge despite the region’s abundance of arable land and untapped water resources. In FSE’s final global food policy and food security symposium, water expert John Briscoe drew upon his many years of international field experience (including a 20-year career at the World Bank) to deliver a personal assessment of the issues facing Africa and suggestions for the way forward.
Improvements in infrastructure, agricultural productivity and investment are crucial for tapping Africa’s agricultural and development potential. And middle-income countries, such as Brazil, may have the most lessons to share.
Dams and the quest for water security
“Africa’s infrastructure is lousy,” said Briscoe, an environmental engineer and director of Harvard’s Water Security Initiative. “Crumbling roads, patchy supplies of electricity, and inadequate water storage are some of Africa’s biggest impediments to growth.”
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Sub-Saharan Africa has tremendous surface and groundwater resources, yet only 4 to 5 percent of cultivated land is irrigated. Most agricultural land relies on rainfall and is often limited to a three to six month rainy season. For many countries in Africa, economic growth and rainfall are closely linked.
Africa has the potential to irrigate an additional 20 million hectares of land, but building that infrastructure is expensive and finding funding has become more difficult. Historically, the World Bank and wealthy countries like the United States have helped. But funding dams is now unpopular.
Meanwhile, middle-income countries - such as Brazil, India and China - are building infrastructure for water-enabled growth, and are filling the funding gap left by rich countries. Whereas the World Bank now finances about five dams, the Chinese finance over 300 dams outside of China in the developing world.
Sub-Saharan Africa has benefited from some of these projects, but still contends with an international NGO and donor community resistant to dam development.
Big is beautiful – the case of Brazil
“Africa must increase its agricultural productivity, and a romantic emphasis on small, local, organic farming is not going to get it there,” said Briscoe.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s agricultural growth rate remains very low. In some countries, yields for staple crops like maize are actually falling. A deficit in knowledge to increase agricultural productivity is part of the problem.
Briscoe shared a telling observation of a Ghanaian CEO of a multinational company: ‘Once the best and the brightest Ghanaians went into engineering. Now they become anthropologists because NGOs dominate the job market and this is the skill they want.’
Briscoe pointed to Brazil as a compelling case for greater investment in agriculture and agricultural research. Between 1985 and 2006, Brazilian agricultural production grew by 77 percent.
“Much of this growth did not come from cutting down the Amazon, but by doing things smarter than it did before,” said Briscoe. “Over the last 30 years, through financial crises and changing political parties, Brazil sustained public investment in agricultural research.”
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Better farming practices led to improved soil quality, high yielding grasslands, and the transformation of soybeans into a tropical crop. Brazil is now the largest exporter of soybeans.
Additionally, Brazil pioneered the use of “no-till” agriculture, now practiced by over 50 percent of its farmers. The culmination of these activities increased productivity while farming more sustainably.
An important contribution to Brazil’s productivity has been its utilization of genetically modified crops. Brazil chose not to eulogize the “small and organic” philosophy of many NGOs, but embraced new technology. Middle-income countries are currently eight of the 10 largest users of GMOs.
Brazil was also pragmatic when it came to scale. Brazilian farms are large. Thirty percent are large commercial operations producing 76 percent of the country’s output. Many environmentalists and small farmers perceived large agrobusiness as the enemy, but these large enterprises were also the grey geese laying the golden eggs for the country.
Understanding that there are no silver-bullet solutions, the Brazilian government sought innovative ways to support smaller farmers. For example, concessions for a large irrigation project in the Pontal were awarded to agribusiness operators that integrated at least 25 percent of irrigable land to small farmers as part of the company’s production chain.
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By 2009, Brazil had become the world’s number one exporter of orange juice, sugar, chicken, coffee, and beef.
“Brazil’s success did not happen over night,” said Briscoe. “African countries must be patient and persistent, particularly with respect to public investment in agricultural research…and pragmatic and realistic about scale.”
Role for foreign investors
In the face of low levels of public investment in agriculture and non-existent or shallow domestic capital markets, there is a role for foreign direct investment (FDI) to play. FDI projects, such as international land deals, can help create implementation capacity by bringing capital and know-how, creating employment and developing infrastructure.
“But it is easier said than done,” said Briscoe. “Foreign investors, including the World Bank's International Finance Corporation (IFC), have struggled in sub-Saharan Africa because farming is a complex business.”
Briscoe noted a shortage of indigenous entrepreneurs, the small size of potential investments, and lack of access to markets have constrained IFC engagement and performance in sub-Saharan Africa.
While there are no shortcuts for Africa, Briscoe insisted optimism and a determination to move faster are needed. Africa must decide whether to follow the prescriptions of the advocacy community or, like Brazil, pursue an opposite strategy.
“Will Africa focus on its real problems, ‘the politics of the belly’?” asked Briscoe. “Or will it succumb again, to the western ‘politics of the mirror’?”
Kenneth Scheve, a professor of political science and expert on the politics of economic policymaking, has been named director of The Europe Center.
The announcement was made Wednesday by Gerhard Casper, director of the institute.
“As we add to our work on governance in developing countries by also focusing on the governance issues of the developed world, including Europe and the United States, Ken will bring just the right expertise and scholarship to the Europe Center,” Casper said.
Scheve succeeds Amir Eshel, the Edward Clark Crossett Professor of Humanistic Studies. Eshel, a professor of German studies and comparative literature, has led The Europe Center and its predecessor – the European Forum – since 2005. Casper thanked Eshel for his eight years of outstanding leadership and added that the emphasis Eshel placed on the humanities will remain a defining element of the center’s work.
The European Forum was founded in 1997 and renamed The Europe Center three years ago. The center has matured into Stanford’s focal point for European policy-oriented research and is part of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Division of International, Comparative and Area Studies.
Scheve (pronounced SHEE-vee) plans to build on the center’s strength as a magnet for faculty and researchers across Stanford who are interested in European issues.
“The mission of The Europe Center is to promote interdisciplinary research on the history, culture, institutions and people of Europe with the idea that that in itself is an important objective,” he said. “Studying Europe with a mix of perspectives from the social sciences and the humanities is a productive way to learn about an array of social and political phenomena that face all societies.”
He said two of the most important issues in international relations – failed states and the role that international institutions play in managing conflict and cooperation – can be better understood through a thorough study and examination of European history, society and current affairs.
“The European Union is the most mature and complex international institution that’s ever been developed,” Scheve said. “Seeing how it both succeeds and struggles to govern is instructive in thinking about how international institutions function in the world more generally. Governance issues within European states, in relation to the EU, and in Europe’s relationships with the rest of world are important public policy problems about which research at Stanford can play a role in informing contemporary policy debates.”
Along with continuing to provide a vibrant forum for faculty, Scheve wants to expand The Europe Center’s relationship with Stanford students.
Looking to the university’s Bing Overseas Studies Program, he sees an opportunity for the center to provide more research and internship opportunities for undergraduates planning to study in Europe.
“We can help prepare them for their overseas studies and help promote undergraduate courses and research opportunities in and about Europe,” he said. “I want us to bridge their educational experience on campus with what happens in the Bing program in Europe.”
For graduate students, Scheve wants to encourage interdisciplinary research by offering grants and fellowships with a particular focus on pre-dissertation and dissertation completion support.
Scheve – who is currently writing a book on the comparative history of the rise of progressive taxation in 19th and 20th century Europe and other advanced economies – has taught at Stanford since 2012.
He previously taught at Yale and the University of Michigan. His first experience with Stanford came in 2005, when he was a fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences.
Scheve holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Notre Dame. He earned his doctorate in political science from Harvard in 2000.
Belina Tang
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